Singapore might go into a recession in 2020

[Wunderfool]

I am sure our highly paid ministers will be pondering the steps to pre-empt that from happening ....

Report

Singapore could go into a recession in 2020 as the signs are there and if external conditions continue to deteriorate.

This is based on a report released on Tuesday, June 4 by the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales (ICAEW) and financial forecasting firm Oxford Economics, according to Today.

Export-dependent
Singapore, an export-dependent country, is bound to be the most hurt among major Southeast Asian economies by the escalating trade war between the United States and China, forecasts have predicted.

Shrinking economy
Singapore’s economy is predicted to shrink from the 3.1 percent growth in 2018 to 1.9 percent in 2019.


It will then recover slightly to 2.2 percent in 2020.

A country goes into recession when there is a fall in GDP in two successive quarters.

First quarter of 2019 bad
Singapore’s economy grew by 1.2 percent in the first quarter of this year.

This is the lowest growth rate in nearly 10 years, performing worse than the government’s flash estimate.

Surrounding countries less impacted
Singapore’s projected performance this year falls below the 4.8 percent growth forecast for the year across the region.

Out of six Southeast Asian countries tracked by the institute, Singapore will face the sharpest predicted slump among Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam.

ICAEW’s 2019 forecast for Singapore comes within the Ministry of Trade and Industry’s prediction of 1.5 to 2.5 percent gross domestic product (GDP) growth announced in May 2019.

Vital signs weakening
There is a risk things could go south if external conditions further deteriorate.

The ICAEW report gave several reasons for a possible slowdown, as cited by Today:

• Singapore’s open and trade-dependent economy has been dented by trade protectionism in U.S. and China. This has been compounded by weaker global trade. Exports were 2.1 percent lower in the first quarter of 2019 than in the same period in 2018, mainly due to a sharp fall in goods exports.

• The outlook for exports remains downbeat, as the U.S. and China continue imposing tariffs. Both countries rank among Singapore’s largest trading partners.

Silver lining
A recession hitting Singapore is not a certainty, as the country still has some strong fundamentals.

• Singapore’s domestic demand, which includes household spending and the construction industry, has remained resilient and could offset the fall in trade. Ongoing public infrastructure projects such as the 21.5km North-South Corridor by the Land Transport Authority are in the works. However, the growth of residential construction activities has eased, and demand for durable goods such as motor vehicles have weakened.



• Electronics manufacturing sectors here are affected. Investment in machinery and equipment fell and firms have opted to reduce stocks.

• Singapore is affected by lower imports demand from China. China’s domestic economy has been generally slowing down since 2016, made worse by the trade war.

 

[batman1]

Recession ? The pride of PAP .

 

[Wunderfool]

With the on-going trade war between US and China, Singapore will be badly affected as its economy is mainly driven by exports.

US and China are allies of Singapore. So, it make matters worse as to who they should side with for future collaboration on trade. It is a tough choice between the devil and the deep blue sea.

For sure, PM will call for a quick election so as to get the mandate to push ahead the necessary austere programs ( they will call it bitter medicine to get a sick person well ) to beat the recession in 2020.

 

[Wunderfool]

SINGAPORE: The ongoing trade war between China and the United States is not something that can be resolved with just one meeting between the two countries' leaders, but is a "long tunnel" and will take time to work out, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said on Friday (Jun 7).

Speaking at the Business China Awards at the Marina Bay Sands, Mr Lee said he hoped that US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping will have an opportunity to talk about the issue at the upcoming G20 summit and "turn things in a more positive direction", but added that he was not entirely optimistic.


"I think it’s a long tunnel. I hope that eventually there will be a way out of it but I think it will take some time," he said.

Referring to the matter as a "trial of strength" between two major powers, Mr Lee added that big powers have to give small countries "the room to be friends with more than one big power" if they hope to have a world in which people are not "completely polarised" into two camps.

"That means that you don’t force people to take sides. You don’t say, 'if you are not with me, that means you are against me'," he said.

In terms of the outlook for the Chinese economy, Mr Lee spoke on how the Chinese economy is slowing down but that the country is likely feeling a "little bit more confident" than last year.


"I think they are preparing for rough weather," Mr Lee said. "You can do a certain amount by … the state coming in to spend money and trying to get the economy going again, but basically there’s a limit to how much you can make up for that."

UPCOMING GENERAL ELECTION IS TO SHOW S'PORE IS "UNITED"

When asked about the significance of Singapore's next General Election, Mr Lee said that it was to show Singaporeans as well as the world that Singapore is "united" and also understands what its security depends on.

"I think it is to show ourselves and to show the world that Singapore is united, we understand what our safety and our security and our prosperity depend on, and we are able to identity and to support a team which will help us to move forward and to get where we want to be," he said.

This is particularly pertinent for the next general election, he said, because "we are preparing for a leadership transition".

It is "crucial" that the leadership transition works well, Mr Lee said.
"To say it works smoothly and without any glitch is asking a lot, but that it must work well and I must be able to hand over, and the next team will be able to take charge, and make Singapore work in their own way," he said.
Read more at https://www.channelnewsasia.com/new...ns-take-time-resolve-not-easy-pm-lee-11606642



The 4G leaders and the current leaders may have different thoughts and approaches to deal with the challenges arising from the US China Trade war; who to side with, how do we handle the security issues as a result, how to spur domestic demand to stimulate the economy and so on.

So, it is important to have a clear and workable solution that both current and 4G leaders can align.

 

[knowwhatyouwantinlife]

What rubbish this trade war was started by humans and can easily be resolved by humans...this is not a systemic issue like subprime..
OPINIONTrade wars -- lessons from the 1980s
Stakes too high for either US or China to press the economic red button
PETER TASKER
MARCH 30, 2018 07:00 JST

People smash a Japanese-made car in a campaign sponsored by northern Indiana steelworkers in 1982. © AP
Who said this? "We have to stop following that white flag and start running up the American flag and turn and fight and make America number one again in international commerce so that American jobs are filled in this country."
It was not U.S. President Donald Trump nor his former adviser Steve Bannon, but Walter Mondale, running as Democratic Party presidential candidate in 1984. The 1980s were a period of escalating trade friction between the U.S. and the rising Asian power of the time, Japan. Indeed, the current stand-off between the U.S. and China seems a model of decorum compared with the bitter, racially charged rhetoric of 30 years ago.
Back then the term "populism" was rarely used, but politicians -- often representing the rust-belt areas which were to vote Trump in 2016 -- were quick to exploit economic insecurity. On a trip to Detroit, Speaker of the House Tip O'Neill threatened to "fix the Japanese like they've never been fixed before." Democratic congressman Jack Brooks opined that the U.S. should have dropped four nuclear bombs on Japan, not just two.
OPINIONTrade wars -- lessons from the 1980s
Stakes too high for either US or China to press the economic red button
PETER TASKER
MARCH 30, 2018 07:00 JST

People smash a Japanese-made car in a campaign sponsored by northern Indiana steelworkers in 1982. © AP
Who said this? "We have to stop following that white flag and start running up the American flag and turn and fight and make America number one again in international commerce so that American jobs are filled in this country."
It was not U.S. President Donald Trump nor his former adviser Steve Bannon, but Walter Mondale, running as Democratic Party presidential candidate in 1984. The 1980s were a period of escalating trade friction between the U.S. and the rising Asian power of the time, Japan. Indeed, the current stand-off between the U.S. and China seems a model of decorum compared with the bitter, racially charged rhetoric of 30 years ago.
Back then the term "populism" was rarely used, but politicians -- often representing the rust-belt areas which were to vote Trump in 2016 -- were quick to exploit economic insecurity. On a trip to Detroit, Speaker of the House Tip O'Neill threatened to "fix the Japanese like they've never been fixed before." Democratic congressman Jack Brooks opined that the U.S. should have dropped four nuclear bombs on Japan, not just two.

Just as today, there were concerns about industrial espionage; six Hitachi executives were arrested in an FBI sting relating to IBM technology. Fujitsu was blocked from acquiring Fairchild Computer on national security grounds, even though the company was French-owned at the time. By the end of the decade Japan had replaced the Soviet Union in public opinion as the number one threat to America.
In the end, Japan and the U.S. reached an accommodation, largely through Japanese concessions, and bilateral economic relations have since been calm. Ultimately, this is what must happen with Sino-American economic relations. The two nations will construct a set of agreements and practices -- effectively, a form of managed trade and investment -- which offer a feasible modus vivendi. Getting from here to there, though, could be a much more fractious process, depending on the levels of pragmatism and flexibility on both sides.
The U.S.-Japan trade disputes were handled by cool-headed professional negotiators. They took a dozen years to settle and had little discernible effect on global financial markets. This time we may not be so lucky. The parallels between then and now are instructive, but so are the differences.
Crucially, Japan was -- and remains -- a kind of U.S. protectorate, highly reliant on America for its security. China, on the other hand, has shown the willingness and capability to challenge the American military presence in the region. Simply put, Japan is a status quo power; China is not. That fact is likely to have a significant effect on negotiating postures.
Differences in the patterns of trade may work the other way. In contrast to 1980s corporate Japan, Chinese companies have only rarely, as yet, competed head-to-head with American companies. And several well-known U.S. multinationals, from chipmakers to casino operators, garner the majority of their revenue from China. Many more, from Apple to Walmart, are reliant on Chinese supply chains. China is America's third largest export destination, behind Mexico and Canada, and takes more U.S. exports than Japan and Germany combined. Corporate America has much more to lose from a trade war this time -- and thus more incentive to lobby against one.
That may be one reason why anti-Chinese sentiment has not yet permeated American culture to the extent that anti-Japanese sentiment did. Michael Crichton's "Rising Sun," a film and best-selling novel, depicted a nefarious Japanese plot to take control of American high-tech. When Sony did take over Columbia Pictures in 1989, Newsweek's cover featured the Statue of Liberty in the guise of a geisha. In today's world, Chinese production companies have moved aggressively into financing Hollywood films -- such as the Oscar-winning "Darkest Hour" -- with no adverse publicity. Actor Richard Gere believes that China's displeasure with his pro-Tibet sympathies has led to him being blackballed from major films, but there has been little outcry.
U.S.-Japan trade frictions were eventually defused by a combination of "voluntary" export quotas, penalties under "Super 301" legislation (a unilateral process for targeting nations supposedly guilty of unfair trade), a large-scale shift of Japanese auto manufacturing from Japan to the U.S. and liberalization of Japanese imports in previously protected areas. There was also a gigantic managed revaluation of the yen which blunted Japanese competitiveness.
Japan continued to run current-account surpluses and the U.S., current-account deficits, but these are more related to macroeconomic imbalances than trade practices. The point was that Japan and the U.S. were becoming stakeholders in each other's economies.
A somewhat different menu would be required to put Sino-American relations on an even keel. Improved access to the Chinese market would have to be part of the solution. Likewise, a two-way street in acquisitions and investment, an end to hacking and theft of intellectual property and dumping by subsidized state-owned enterprises. The larger geopolitical context, including the future of North Korea, Taiwan and the South China Sea, would also need to be addressed.
Even with the best will in the world, reaching such an accommodation would be a decade-long process. In the meantime, the best we can hope for might be the economic equivalent of the Cold War doctrine of "Mutually Assured Destruction," which ensured that nuclear weapons were built and maintained but never used. Despite the threats and posturing, there is ultimately too much at stake for anyone to press the economic red button.

 

[steffychun]

PAP got scholars to handle?

 

[grumpyman]

recession good. more people jump from hdb flat. good good!

 

[mojito]

I am sure our highly paid ministers will be pondering the steps to pre-empt that from happening ....

Report

Singapore could go into a recession in 2020 as the signs are there and if external conditions continue to deteriorate.

This is based on a report released on Tuesday, June 4 by the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales (ICAEW) and financial forecasting firm Oxford Economics, according to Today.

Export-dependent
Singapore, an export-dependent country, is bound to be the most hurt among major Southeast Asian economies by the escalating trade war between the United States and China, forecasts have predicted.

Shrinking economy
Singapore’s economy is predicted to shrink from the 3.1 percent growth in 2018 to 1.9 percent in 2019.


It will then recover slightly to 2.2 percent in 2020.

A country goes into recession when there is a fall in GDP in two successive quarters.

First quarter of 2019 bad
Singapore’s economy grew by 1.2 percent in the first quarter of this year.

This is the lowest growth rate in nearly 10 years, performing worse than the government’s flash estimate.

Surrounding countries less impacted
Singapore’s projected performance this year falls below the 4.8 percent growth forecast for the year across the region.

Out of six Southeast Asian countries tracked by the institute, Singapore will face the sharpest predicted slump among Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam.

ICAEW’s 2019 forecast for Singapore comes within the Ministry of Trade and Industry’s prediction of 1.5 to 2.5 percent gross domestic product (GDP) growth announced in May 2019.

Vital signs weakening
There is a risk things could go south if external conditions further deteriorate.

The ICAEW report gave several reasons for a possible slowdown, as cited by Today:

• Singapore’s open and trade-dependent economy has been dented by trade protectionism in U.S. and China. This has been compounded by weaker global trade. Exports were 2.1 percent lower in the first quarter of 2019 than in the same period in 2018, mainly due to a sharp fall in goods exports.

• The outlook for exports remains downbeat, as the U.S. and China continue imposing tariffs. Both countries rank among Singapore’s largest trading partners.

Silver lining
A recession hitting Singapore is not a certainty, as the country still has some strong fundamentals.

• Singapore’s domestic demand, which includes household spending and the construction industry, has remained resilient and could offset the fall in trade. Ongoing public infrastructure projects such as the 21.5km North-South Corridor by the Land Transport Authority are in the works. However, the growth of residential construction activities has eased, and demand for durable goods such as motor vehicles have weakened.



• Electronics manufacturing sectors here are affected. Investment in machinery and equipment fell and firms have opted to reduce stocks.

• Singapore is affected by lower imports demand from China. China’s domestic economy has been generally slowing down since 2016, made worse by the trade war.

That is why you need to vote the PAP. Only the PAP have steady hands to guide Singapore through yet another global crisis. Vote oppie if you want Loong to spend all day fixing his opponents, buying supporters and no time to do the governing properly. You choice you don't regret it OK?

 

[Wunderfool]

If you could recall the 1985 recession, the Economic Committee chaired by LHL introduced a slew of cost cutting measures that include reduction in employer CPF contributions, wage freeze for 2 years and rebates on personal , corporate and property taxes. The committee also proposed several economic reforms to address the causes of the recession and steered Singapore towards the next phase of development. The Singapore economy made a quick recovery in mid- 1986. The recession was the first test for the second generation leaders and LHL passed with flying colours.

Now, it is Heng Swee Keat 's turn to show if he has the mettle to handle the next recession.

 

[jw5]

Without PAP to guide you through a recession, I worry.

 

[zhihau]

Without PAP to guide you through a recession, I worry.

Erections akan datang ah?

 

[jw5]

Erections Next Change............. Huat Ah!

Erections akan datang ah?

 

[krafty]

it's time to forge foreign partnerships and venture out of s'pore.

 

[mojito]

If you could recall the 1985 recession, the Economic Committee chaired by LHL introduced a slew of cost cutting measures that include reduction in employer CPF contributions, wage freeze for 2 years and rebates on personal , corporate and property taxes. The committee also proposed several economic reforms to address the causes of the recession and steered Singapore towards the next phase of development. The Singapore economy made a quick recovery in mid- 1986. The recession was the first test for the second generation leaders and LHL passed with flying colours.

Now, it is Heng Swee Keat 's turn to show if he has the mettle to handle the next recession.

Bro, I think better Heng understudy Loong a few more years. Other than raising taxes I not hear anything good he do. Loong got cable car rescue heroism how to outdo? Also not very smart to outdo your boss bro especially when the wife still be control the purse string. I can safely say there is no need to expect anything good from Heng. Can take note now and quote a few years down if you not believe.

 

[A Singaporean]

This is good news. Less FT.

 

[bobby]

We can weather the US-China trade war: DPM Heng

Simi lan recession...limpeh kong liao boh tai chee eh.

 

[red amoeba]

So besides fiddling w taxes n cpf rates, what other measures can they come up from their toolbox ? Why isn’t our economy diversified enough ? Luxembourg is small and lack resources but you hardly hear they are in recession.

 

[whoami]

Without PAP to guide you through a recession, I worry.

If WP guide us thru a recession i lagi worry.

 

[whoami]

Bro, I think better Heng understudy Loong a few more years. Other than raising taxes I not hear anything good he do. Loong got cable car rescue heroism how to outdo? Also not very smart to outdo your boss bro especially when the wife still be control the purse string. I can safely say there is no need to expect anything good from Heng. Can take note now and quote a few years down if you not believe.

HSK where got calibre. Not a General. Just a jaga.

 

[Huatable]

Singapore will go into recession in 2020 because of GST hike.