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Nothing hypothetical,u use the example of 9 million dieing every two months which is derived from the world population dieing from natural causes or another....
So unless the whole world is afflicted by covid how can we guage it's true potential?
The 9 million deaths every 2 months comes from the fact that a certain percentage will come down with and succumb to various illnesses or disasters.
No other illness afflicts every single human so why extrapolate the effects of Covid-19 without doing the same for diabetes, cancer, heart disease etc?