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本報專欄--台灣出口連五月衰退的警訊
大華網路報
83 人追蹤
2019年4月24日 上午5:46
根據財政部公布的2019年3月海關進出口貿易概況資料顯示，台灣3月的出口金額為286.8億美元，較上年同月減4.4%，連續五個月衰退。而台灣是以出口為導向的經濟體，出口是台灣經濟成長重要的驅動力之一，出口連五黑值得國人高度重視這個警訊。
造成台灣出口連五黑的因素很多，根據財政部統計處的分析，由於全球需求轉緩加深電子產業淡季效應，再加上去年同期基數偏高，因此造成台灣出口連續五個月下滑。除了這些短期的不利因素之外，台灣更需要重視長期無法融入區域經濟整合對出口造成的巨大衝擊。
眾所皆知，全球區域經濟整合已盛行多年，在北美有「北美自由貿易協定」（NAFTA）、歐洲有「歐盟」（EU）、而在亞洲目前主要有「東南亞國協」推動的「區域全面經濟夥伴協定」（Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnerships, RCEP），進一步形成東協加六，包含中國大陸、日本、韓國、澳洲、紐西蘭、印度等都已經加入。如果台灣無法加入這些區域經濟整合組織，對出口非常不利。
根據經濟學原理，加入區域經濟整合的國家或經濟體簽署「自由貿易協定」（FTA）後，彼此間關稅將大幅降低並享有貨品的通關便捷，相互間的貿易量會增加，而沒有加入的國家或經濟體，會因為高額關稅與通關障礙，導致與加入成員之間的貿易額下降，這就是經濟學原理所稱的「貿易移轉效果」。
而由於「貿易移轉效果」，會擴大吸引外資在成員國內投資，以享低關稅與通關便捷的優惠；相對而言，沒有加入的國家或經濟體吸收外資就相對困難，甚至本國企業會被吸引去成員國投資，這就是經濟學所稱的「投資移轉效果」，台塑到越南去投資設廠就是非常明顯的例子，要享有RCEP所帶來的優惠措施。
所以台灣當務之急就是要加入這些區域經濟組織以避免貿易與投資受到衝擊。至於台灣要如何融入區域經濟整合？過去曾有先加入「跨太平洋夥伴全面進展協定」（Comprehensive and Progressive for Trans-Pacific Partnerships, CPTPP）或是RCEP的爭論，也有學者提出要同時加入CPTPP與RCEP。然而，實際狀況是台灣都無法加入這兩個組織，其中原因大家都非常明白，台灣唯有先處理好兩岸經貿關係，才有可能加入CPTPP與RCEP。
在2008至2016年中國國民黨執政時期，兩岸在2010年6月29日簽署了「海峽兩岸經濟合作架構協議」（ECFA），2011年1月1日ECFA早期收穫（Early Harvest）生效後，台灣有539項出口中國大陸免關稅與享有通關便捷的權利，大幅促進台灣對中國大陸的出口，也為台灣經濟成長注入更多的源頭活水。
同時在中國大陸的默許下，台灣才有可能在2010年11月4日與義大利簽署智慧財產權瞭解備忘錄；2010年12月24日與法國簽署避免所得稅雙重課稅及防杜逃稅協定；2011年8月1日與印度簽署「關務互助協定」；2011年9月22日與日本簽署「有關投資自由化、促進及保護合作協議」；2011年9月24日與斯洛伐克簽署租稅協定；2012年7月與紐西蘭簽署經濟合作協議；2013年11月與新加坡簽署經濟伙伴協議。
可惜的是，自從2016年5月20日民進黨執政後，由於不承認「九二共識」，被中國大陸認為是破壞兩岸的政治互信基礎，導致兩岸關係走向緊張對峙狀態，許多攸關兩岸經濟議題無法透過協商解決，不但戕害兩岸經貿正常的交流互動，也加深了台灣被區域經濟整合邊緣化的危機。
總而言之，出口對台灣經濟發展非常重要，國人要重視台灣出口連五月衰退的警訊。台灣必須要享有一個公平競爭的國際大環境，避免因人為的不公平貿易條件，導致台灣出口受到衝擊。所以，促進台灣出口的最重要工作之一，就是要融入區域經濟整合，而要融入區域經濟整合就必須改善兩岸關係，讓雙方關係成為融入區域經濟整合的動力而不是阻力。 (作者鄧岱賢，台灣標竿企業促進會理事長)
【大華網路報】
Newspaper column--Taiwan's export warning for the May recession
[大华网报]
Dahua Internet News
83 people tracking
April 24, 2019, 5:46 am
According to the Ministry of Finance's March 2019 customs import and export trade profile, Taiwan's export value in March was US$28.68 billion, a decrease of 4.4% from the same month of the previous year and a five-month recession. Taiwan is an export-oriented economy. Export is one of the important driving forces for Taiwan's economic growth. Exporting five blacks deserves the attention of the Chinese people.
There are many factors that cause Taiwan's exports to be black. According to the analysis of the Ministry of Finance's Statistics Department, Taiwan's exports have been falling for five consecutive months due to the slowdown in global demand and the weaker-season effect of the electronics industry, coupled with the high base in the same period last year. In addition to these short-term unfavorable factors, Taiwan needs to pay more attention to the huge impact of long-term inability to integrate into regional economic integration.
As everyone knows, global regional economic integration has been popular for many years. There are North American Free Trade Agreements (NAFTA) in North America, "EU" in Europe, and "ASEAN" in Asia. The Comprehensive Comprehensive Economic Partnerships (RCEP) further formed the ASEAN Plus VI, including China, Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, and India. If Taiwan cannot join these regional economic integration organizations, it will be very unfavorable for exports.
According to the principle of economics, after the countries or economies that have joined the regional economic integration have signed the "Free Trade Agreement" (FTA), the tariffs between them will be greatly reduced and the customs clearance of goods will be facilitated, and the trade volume between them will increase without joining. The country or the economy will have a decline in the trade volume with the participating members because of high tariffs and barriers to customs clearance. This is what the economic principle calls "trade transfer effects."
As a result of the "trade transfer effect", it will expand the investment of attracting foreign investment in member countries to enjoy low tariffs and convenient customs clearance; relatively speaking, countries or economies that have not joined are relatively difficult to attract foreign investment, and even domestic enterprises will be Investing in member countries to invest, this is what economics calls "investment transfer effect". Formosa Plastics to Vietnam to invest in setting up factories is a very obvious example, to enjoy the preferential measures brought by RCEP.
Therefore, it is imperative for Taiwan to join these regional economic organizations to avoid the impact of trade and investment. As for how Taiwan will integrate into regional economic integration? In the past, there was a debate about the "Comprehensive and Progressive for Trans-Pacific Partnerships" (CPTPP) or RCEP. Some scholars also proposed to join CPTPP and RCEP at the same time. However, the actual situation is that Taiwan cannot join these two organizations. The reason is that everyone understands very well that Taiwan can only join CPTPP and RCEP if it first handles cross-strait economic and trade relations.
During the 2008-2016 Chinese Kuomintang administration, the two sides signed the "Cross-Strait Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement" (ECFA) on June 29, 2010. After the effective harvest of the Early Harvest of the ECFA on January 1, 2011, Taiwan has 539 exports to China's duty-free and enjoyable customs clearance rights, greatly promote Taiwan's exports to mainland China, but also inject more sources of water for Taiwan's economic growth.
At the same time, with the acquiescence of mainland China, it is possible for Taiwan to sign a memorandum of understanding on intellectual property rights with Italy on November 4, 2010; with France on December 24, 2010, it has signed an agreement on avoiding double taxation and preventing tax evasion; Signed the Agreement on Mutual Assistance with India on August 1st; signed the Agreement on Investment Liberalization, Promotion and Protection Cooperation with Japan on September 22, 2011; signed a tax treaty with Slovakia on September 24, 2011; 2012 In July, it signed an economic cooperation agreement with New Zealand; in November 2013, it signed an economic partnership agreement with Singapore.
It is a pity that since the Democratic Progressive Party took office on May 20, 2016, because it did not recognize the "1992 Consensus", it was considered by the Chinese mainland to undermine the political mutual trust foundation of the two sides of the strait, leading to a tension and confrontation between the two sides of the strait, and many cross-strait economics. The issue cannot be resolved through consultation. It not only harms the normal exchanges and interactions between the two sides of the strait, but also deepens the crisis of Taiwan's marginalization of regional economic integration.
All in all, exports are very important to Taiwan's economic development, and the Chinese should pay attention to the warning that Taiwan's exports have even declined in May. Taiwan must enjoy a fair and competitive international environment and avoid unfair trade conditions caused by man-made conditions, which will lead to an impact on Taiwan’s exports. Therefore, one of the most important tasks to promote Taiwan's exports is to integrate into regional economic integration. To integrate into regional economic integration, we must improve cross-strait relations and make bilateral relations become the driving force for integration into regional economic integration rather than resistance. (Author Deng Yuxian, Chairman of the Taiwan Standards Enterprise Promotion Association)
[大华网报]
本報專欄--台灣出口連五月衰退的警訊
大華網路報
83 人追蹤
2019年4月24日 上午5:46
根據財政部公布的2019年3月海關進出口貿易概況資料顯示，台灣3月的出口金額為286.8億美元，較上年同月減4.4%，連續五個月衰退。而台灣是以出口為導向的經濟體，出口是台灣經濟成長重要的驅動力之一，出口連五黑值得國人高度重視這個警訊。
造成台灣出口連五黑的因素很多，根據財政部統計處的分析，由於全球需求轉緩加深電子產業淡季效應，再加上去年同期基數偏高，因此造成台灣出口連續五個月下滑。除了這些短期的不利因素之外，台灣更需要重視長期無法融入區域經濟整合對出口造成的巨大衝擊。
眾所皆知，全球區域經濟整合已盛行多年，在北美有「北美自由貿易協定」（NAFTA）、歐洲有「歐盟」（EU）、而在亞洲目前主要有「東南亞國協」推動的「區域全面經濟夥伴協定」（Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnerships, RCEP），進一步形成東協加六，包含中國大陸、日本、韓國、澳洲、紐西蘭、印度等都已經加入。如果台灣無法加入這些區域經濟整合組織，對出口非常不利。
根據經濟學原理，加入區域經濟整合的國家或經濟體簽署「自由貿易協定」（FTA）後，彼此間關稅將大幅降低並享有貨品的通關便捷，相互間的貿易量會增加，而沒有加入的國家或經濟體，會因為高額關稅與通關障礙，導致與加入成員之間的貿易額下降，這就是經濟學原理所稱的「貿易移轉效果」。
而由於「貿易移轉效果」，會擴大吸引外資在成員國內投資，以享低關稅與通關便捷的優惠；相對而言，沒有加入的國家或經濟體吸收外資就相對困難，甚至本國企業會被吸引去成員國投資，這就是經濟學所稱的「投資移轉效果」，台塑到越南去投資設廠就是非常明顯的例子，要享有RCEP所帶來的優惠措施。
所以台灣當務之急就是要加入這些區域經濟組織以避免貿易與投資受到衝擊。至於台灣要如何融入區域經濟整合？過去曾有先加入「跨太平洋夥伴全面進展協定」（Comprehensive and Progressive for Trans-Pacific Partnerships, CPTPP）或是RCEP的爭論，也有學者提出要同時加入CPTPP與RCEP。然而，實際狀況是台灣都無法加入這兩個組織，其中原因大家都非常明白，台灣唯有先處理好兩岸經貿關係，才有可能加入CPTPP與RCEP。
在2008至2016年中國國民黨執政時期，兩岸在2010年6月29日簽署了「海峽兩岸經濟合作架構協議」（ECFA），2011年1月1日ECFA早期收穫（Early Harvest）生效後，台灣有539項出口中國大陸免關稅與享有通關便捷的權利，大幅促進台灣對中國大陸的出口，也為台灣經濟成長注入更多的源頭活水。
同時在中國大陸的默許下，台灣才有可能在2010年11月4日與義大利簽署智慧財產權瞭解備忘錄；2010年12月24日與法國簽署避免所得稅雙重課稅及防杜逃稅協定；2011年8月1日與印度簽署「關務互助協定」；2011年9月22日與日本簽署「有關投資自由化、促進及保護合作協議」；2011年9月24日與斯洛伐克簽署租稅協定；2012年7月與紐西蘭簽署經濟合作協議；2013年11月與新加坡簽署經濟伙伴協議。
可惜的是，自從2016年5月20日民進黨執政後，由於不承認「九二共識」，被中國大陸認為是破壞兩岸的政治互信基礎，導致兩岸關係走向緊張對峙狀態，許多攸關兩岸經濟議題無法透過協商解決，不但戕害兩岸經貿正常的交流互動，也加深了台灣被區域經濟整合邊緣化的危機。
總而言之，出口對台灣經濟發展非常重要，國人要重視台灣出口連五月衰退的警訊。台灣必須要享有一個公平競爭的國際大環境，避免因人為的不公平貿易條件，導致台灣出口受到衝擊。所以，促進台灣出口的最重要工作之一，就是要融入區域經濟整合，而要融入區域經濟整合就必須改善兩岸關係，讓雙方關係成為融入區域經濟整合的動力而不是阻力。 (作者鄧岱賢，台灣標竿企業促進會理事長)
【大華網路報】
Newspaper column--Taiwan's export warning for the May recession
[大华网报]
Dahua Internet News
83 people tracking
April 24, 2019, 5:46 am
According to the Ministry of Finance's March 2019 customs import and export trade profile, Taiwan's export value in March was US$28.68 billion, a decrease of 4.4% from the same month of the previous year and a five-month recession. Taiwan is an export-oriented economy. Export is one of the important driving forces for Taiwan's economic growth. Exporting five blacks deserves the attention of the Chinese people.
There are many factors that cause Taiwan's exports to be black. According to the analysis of the Ministry of Finance's Statistics Department, Taiwan's exports have been falling for five consecutive months due to the slowdown in global demand and the weaker-season effect of the electronics industry, coupled with the high base in the same period last year. In addition to these short-term unfavorable factors, Taiwan needs to pay more attention to the huge impact of long-term inability to integrate into regional economic integration.
As everyone knows, global regional economic integration has been popular for many years. There are North American Free Trade Agreements (NAFTA) in North America, "EU" in Europe, and "ASEAN" in Asia. The Comprehensive Comprehensive Economic Partnerships (RCEP) further formed the ASEAN Plus VI, including China, Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, and India. If Taiwan cannot join these regional economic integration organizations, it will be very unfavorable for exports.
According to the principle of economics, after the countries or economies that have joined the regional economic integration have signed the "Free Trade Agreement" (FTA), the tariffs between them will be greatly reduced and the customs clearance of goods will be facilitated, and the trade volume between them will increase without joining. The country or the economy will have a decline in the trade volume with the participating members because of high tariffs and barriers to customs clearance. This is what the economic principle calls "trade transfer effects."
As a result of the "trade transfer effect", it will expand the investment of attracting foreign investment in member countries to enjoy low tariffs and convenient customs clearance; relatively speaking, countries or economies that have not joined are relatively difficult to attract foreign investment, and even domestic enterprises will be Investing in member countries to invest, this is what economics calls "investment transfer effect". Formosa Plastics to Vietnam to invest in setting up factories is a very obvious example, to enjoy the preferential measures brought by RCEP.
Therefore, it is imperative for Taiwan to join these regional economic organizations to avoid the impact of trade and investment. As for how Taiwan will integrate into regional economic integration? In the past, there was a debate about the "Comprehensive and Progressive for Trans-Pacific Partnerships" (CPTPP) or RCEP. Some scholars also proposed to join CPTPP and RCEP at the same time. However, the actual situation is that Taiwan cannot join these two organizations. The reason is that everyone understands very well that Taiwan can only join CPTPP and RCEP if it first handles cross-strait economic and trade relations.
During the 2008-2016 Chinese Kuomintang administration, the two sides signed the "Cross-Strait Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement" (ECFA) on June 29, 2010. After the effective harvest of the Early Harvest of the ECFA on January 1, 2011, Taiwan has 539 exports to China's duty-free and enjoyable customs clearance rights, greatly promote Taiwan's exports to mainland China, but also inject more sources of water for Taiwan's economic growth.
At the same time, with the acquiescence of mainland China, it is possible for Taiwan to sign a memorandum of understanding on intellectual property rights with Italy on November 4, 2010; with France on December 24, 2010, it has signed an agreement on avoiding double taxation and preventing tax evasion; Signed the Agreement on Mutual Assistance with India on August 1st; signed the Agreement on Investment Liberalization, Promotion and Protection Cooperation with Japan on September 22, 2011; signed a tax treaty with Slovakia on September 24, 2011; 2012 In July, it signed an economic cooperation agreement with New Zealand; in November 2013, it signed an economic partnership agreement with Singapore.
It is a pity that since the Democratic Progressive Party took office on May 20, 2016, because it did not recognize the "1992 Consensus", it was considered by the Chinese mainland to undermine the political mutual trust foundation of the two sides of the strait, leading to a tension and confrontation between the two sides of the strait, and many cross-strait economics. The issue cannot be resolved through consultation. It not only harms the normal exchanges and interactions between the two sides of the strait, but also deepens the crisis of Taiwan's marginalization of regional economic integration.
All in all, exports are very important to Taiwan's economic development, and the Chinese should pay attention to the warning that Taiwan's exports have even declined in May. Taiwan must enjoy a fair and competitive international environment and avoid unfair trade conditions caused by man-made conditions, which will lead to an impact on Taiwan’s exports. Therefore, one of the most important tasks to promote Taiwan's exports is to integrate into regional economic integration. To integrate into regional economic integration, we must improve cross-strait relations and make bilateral relations become the driving force for integration into regional economic integration rather than resistance. (Author Deng Yuxian, Chairman of the Taiwan Standards Enterprise Promotion Association)
[大华网报]
