Sunday, March 02, 2008
Thai political drama continues
http://sophiesworld-sophiesworld.blogspot.com/2008/03/thai-political-drama-continues.html
The Thai political drama has resumed with the sudden return of former PM Thaksin Shinawatra and the lifting of the country's badly-implemented capital controls.
The two developments may seem unrelated but they have the combined effect of showing the continued influence of the man who was embroiled in the controversial deal with Singapore government investment arm Temasek Holdings in 2006.
Despite criticisms against Thaksin over a host of issues, the Thai strongman had run the country better than a bunch of generals.
Although the Thai election has concluded, Thaksin could still play a significant role in the national political theater through his proxies. He's got strong and interesting ideas like owning Manchester City Football Club, where he is the chairman. And he has plenty of money, especially from the Temasek deal, to bankroll any fresh campaign.
While the Thai saga continues, some of the basic questions about the Shin deal may re-surface. Why did Temasek buy Shin in the first place? Although Singapore politicians had said ad nauseam that it was simply a commercial deal, nobody was convinced.
As mentioned earlier, there was one sexy theory that could help explain the whole saga. According to the theory, the payment of S$3 billion by Temasek and partners to Thaksin for his holding company was part of a quid pro quo to abandon Thailand's long-cherished dream to build the Kra Canal.
According to one wit, Thaksin had wanted to build the canal and resolve two issues at one go -- turn Thailand into a major shipping hub, and isolate the Islamic separatist movement in southern Thailand. A canal will literally divide Thailand into two distinct regions.
Will Thaksin stick to the purported deal? Or will the Kra Canal idea resurface? Any such deal would have been conditional on Thaksin remaining in power.
But Thaksin the civilian businessman can now theoretically push for the construction of the canal, which will enable ships to bypass Singapore and sail from South China Sea to Andaman Sea and Indian Ocean.
After all, nobody expected a 'commercial' deal to trigger a military coup that toppled the country's leader.
