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Sharp Recession in Australia Forecasted

OzSucks

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Author: 123jump.com Staff
123jump.com
Last Update: 3:19 PM ET January 19 2009

Australian stocks rebounded after precious and base metals rose on the specualtion that the recent stimulus in Europe and the U.S. will drive the demand higher. Separately, a private economic forecast suggested a sharp slide into a recession. Western Australia property prices drop.


3:00AM New York, 7:00PM Sydney – Australian economy estimated to slide into a recession from a recent boom. Property values decline in West Australia.

Australian stocks on a rise in commodity stocks as metal prices increased on expectations that global government intervention will help to forestall a deepening global recession. Copper prices rose 5.1% and gold prices rallied 4% on Friday last week.

Realty stocks however pared gains on a report that showed that house prices are falling in Western Australia as resource boom fades.

In Sydney trading ASX 200 index rose 1.1% or 38.4 to 3,589.30.

Of the ASX 200 index stocks 127 increased, 52 declined, and 21 were unchanged. Dexus Property led gainers in the index shares with an increase of 8.8% followed by Australand Property gaining 8.2%.

Australia to Slip into Recession

Economic consultancy firm, Access Economics reported in its quarterly economic report released today that Australia is headed for a recession as growth continues to slow in the global economy.

The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to lower its key lending rate to 2.5% at its next monetary policy meeting. However, after a sharp drop in interest in the last meeting may not require immediate cut in rates.

According to the report, the country''s unemployment rate may increase 7% in early 2010 and the current account deficit will increase to A$100 billion in the fiscal 2009, while the Australian dollar may declined to 56 cents against the dollar from 67.6.

Access Economics head Chris Richardson said, “The economy will be slip-sliding into recession. Australia''s recent prosperity will unwind scarily fast.”

Property Values Drop in Western Australia

The Australian reported today that the Real Estate Institute of Western Australia reported that the property market in West Australia is deteriorating as the resource boom unwinds.

Rents dropped 8% in Geraldton and in the northwest fibro shacks that were rented for A$1,000 a week are now vacant due to retrenchments.

Real Estate Institute of Western Australia deputy president David Airey said sales in Perth''s affluent western suburbs fell to 85 in the quarter to December from 150 in the previous quarter and 300 in the same period a year earlier.

House prices slipped 4% in Perth in the quarter to December, while the median prices of a Perth house fell to A$418,000 from $473,000 in December 2007.

“Properties priced up to $400,000 in areas popular with first-home buyers have either been steady in price or fallen only very, very marginally,” said REIWA.

Gainers & Losers

Dexus Property led advancers in the ASX 200 index shares with a rise of 8.8% followed by increases in Australand Property of 8.2%, in Newscrest Mining of 8%, in Linc Energy of 7.7%, and Pacific Brands of 6.9%.

Commodity stocks gained after copper prices soared 5.1% and gold prices increased 4% on Friday last week. In today''s trading gold prices rallied $19 to $839 per ounce and copper prices edged up to $1.5275 per ton. Acquarius Platinum gained 6.8%, Lihir Gold jumped 6.7% and Paladin Energy climbed 6.5%.

Centro Retail Group led decliners in the ASX 200 index shares with a decline of 17.5% followed by losses in Macquarie DDR TR of 12.1%, in ING Industrial of 8.8%, in HFA Holdings of 8%, and FKP Property Group of 6.8%.
 
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