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[h=1]Standard Chartered will keep falling, says AA-rated Norris
[/h][h=2]Citywire AA-rated fund manager Barry Norris has hiked his 'short' position in the embattled emerging markets-focused bank.[/h]Citywire AA-rated fund manager Barry Norris is betting that shares in embattled emerging markets-focused bank Standard Chartered (STAN
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) will fall further.Norris has hiked his 'short' position in the bank - a bet that the share price will fall in his Argonaut Absolute Return
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fund, which aims to deliver a positive return in all market conditions.He has 'shorted' the bank for more than two years, but last week upped the position from 3.5% to 5% of the fund.
The bank has had a torrid 12 months with heavy exposure to Asia and a rising number of non-performing loans weighing heavily on its share price, which has fallen by 29%.
In its latest results, the bank reported a 36% fall in profits in the first half of the year, down from $3.3 billion (£2.1 billion) to $2.1 billion, while its return on equity halved. The bank’s new chief executive Bill Winters, who started in June, was candid, admitting ‘mistakes were clearly’ made as the bank announced a doubling of impairments to $1.7 billion and the halving of its dividend.
Standard Chartered’s share price actually rose by 1.8% on the day owing to investor relief that it did not need a rights issue and hope that all the bad news was priced in.
However, Norris disagrees, believing that the asset quality in the underlying markets it operates in is deteriorating much more rapidly than the bank recognises, at a time when it has halved its loan loss provision from 3% to 1.5% - a low figure compared to its eurozone peer group’s average 3-5% provision.
‘We think that asset quality will continue to deteriorate and the worst is yet to come,’ Norris (pictured) said.
‘We also think that the company’s historic provisioning policy has been far from prudent and that the failure to take a sufficiently counter cyclical approach to provisioning in the good times will now lead to shareholders having to endure much greater cyclical pain as Asia and emerging market economies continue to slow.
‘We would also suggest that the bank has experienced a much lighter touch than its domestic peers from the UK regulator and that this is about to change. We think all of this will result in further bad news for Standard Chartered shareholders.’
Norris, who co-manages the fund with Greg Bennett, added that he believed Standard Chartered’s Hong Kong and Singapore assets in particular were exposed to a US interest rate hike.
He noted: ‘Take Hong Kong retail mortgages as an example. At the end of 2014 [the bank] had retail mortgage lending in Hong Kong of HK$174 billion ($22 billion), supported by just HK$5 million of loan loss provisions!
‘In other words, the implication is that the entire HK mortgage book has near to zero risk of loss. The bank might argue that asset prices of Hong Kong real estate have risen strongly providing comfort in collateral values and there are no customers defaulting, so they don’t need to take provisions for bad loans.
‘But this ignores the inherent cyclicality in lending money and the risk that the future might not look like the recent past.
‘Failure to provide for the risk that good loans might turn sour in the future means not only that historic profitability was over-stated but that Standard Chartered’s future prospects will be weighed down by the need to make amends for these past failings.’
The Argonaut Absolute Return fund has returned 73.3% over three years compared to the average 13.9% of funds in the Investment Association's Targeted Absolute Return sector.

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) will fall further.Norris has hiked his 'short' position in the bank - a bet that the share price will fall in his Argonaut Absolute Return
+
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Register or Sign in to receive email alerts for items in your favourites whenever we write about them
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fund, which aims to deliver a positive return in all market conditions.He has 'shorted' the bank for more than two years, but last week upped the position from 3.5% to 5% of the fund.
The bank has had a torrid 12 months with heavy exposure to Asia and a rising number of non-performing loans weighing heavily on its share price, which has fallen by 29%.
In its latest results, the bank reported a 36% fall in profits in the first half of the year, down from $3.3 billion (£2.1 billion) to $2.1 billion, while its return on equity halved. The bank’s new chief executive Bill Winters, who started in June, was candid, admitting ‘mistakes were clearly’ made as the bank announced a doubling of impairments to $1.7 billion and the halving of its dividend.
Standard Chartered’s share price actually rose by 1.8% on the day owing to investor relief that it did not need a rights issue and hope that all the bad news was priced in.
However, Norris disagrees, believing that the asset quality in the underlying markets it operates in is deteriorating much more rapidly than the bank recognises, at a time when it has halved its loan loss provision from 3% to 1.5% - a low figure compared to its eurozone peer group’s average 3-5% provision.
‘We think that asset quality will continue to deteriorate and the worst is yet to come,’ Norris (pictured) said.
‘We also think that the company’s historic provisioning policy has been far from prudent and that the failure to take a sufficiently counter cyclical approach to provisioning in the good times will now lead to shareholders having to endure much greater cyclical pain as Asia and emerging market economies continue to slow.
‘We would also suggest that the bank has experienced a much lighter touch than its domestic peers from the UK regulator and that this is about to change. We think all of this will result in further bad news for Standard Chartered shareholders.’
Norris, who co-manages the fund with Greg Bennett, added that he believed Standard Chartered’s Hong Kong and Singapore assets in particular were exposed to a US interest rate hike.
He noted: ‘Take Hong Kong retail mortgages as an example. At the end of 2014 [the bank] had retail mortgage lending in Hong Kong of HK$174 billion ($22 billion), supported by just HK$5 million of loan loss provisions!
‘In other words, the implication is that the entire HK mortgage book has near to zero risk of loss. The bank might argue that asset prices of Hong Kong real estate have risen strongly providing comfort in collateral values and there are no customers defaulting, so they don’t need to take provisions for bad loans.
‘But this ignores the inherent cyclicality in lending money and the risk that the future might not look like the recent past.
‘Failure to provide for the risk that good loans might turn sour in the future means not only that historic profitability was over-stated but that Standard Chartered’s future prospects will be weighed down by the need to make amends for these past failings.’
The Argonaut Absolute Return fund has returned 73.3% over three years compared to the average 13.9% of funds in the Investment Association's Targeted Absolute Return sector.