SBF Research: Swiss Gold fueled the 39% tariffs

[Chase]

Switzerland to seek more talks with US as 39% ‘horror’ tariffs kick in
https://www.straitstimes.com/world/...-more-talks-with-us-as-horror-tariffs-kick-in

Swiss Gold may be exempted 39% but they cause a massive trade imbalance
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...ing-takes-spotlight-in-trade-talks-with-trump

Did Swiss Gold Refiners Fuel The Crisis?
https://www.dw.com/en/trump-tariffs-did-swiss-gold-refiners-fuel-the-crisis/a-73554953

 

[Chase]

Contradicting Report: The United States has imposed tariffs on imports of one-kilo gold bars… the letter said one-kilo and 100 ounce gold bars should be classified under a customs code subject to levels

https://money.usnews.com/investing/...oses-tariffs-on-one-kilo-gold-bars-ft-reports

Summary:
If you buy gold, Americans get import duties
If you sell gold, Americans get capital gain tax

 

[k1976]

As Switzerland refines 90% of gold sourced from industrial mines, gold is set to become significantly more expensive in the US than in the international market.



Note that the US is a significant gold producer as well and therefore, as UBS points out, any countervailing tariffs from other countries on gold may severely impact supply chains.

 

[k1976]

Knock-on effects will be felt in funding markets as there will be a massive closeout of short Exchange-For-Physical (EFP) positions which triggers the need for funding in London.

It may similarly apply to other metals too. However, the ruling in the article was specific to two codes used for gold bullion.

This is what markets had feared back in January, but at that time had no idea whether gold/precious metals would be exempt.

As a reminder, the global trade flow for bullion is normally triangular: large gold bars travel between London and New York, via Switzerland, where they are recast into different sizes.

If the FT article proves to be correct, the market cannot do the same as before by pre-emptively moving metal into the US to avoid tariffs.

Positions are likely get closed out or supply chains adjust to source from countries with zero tariffs, but this will be difficult given the bulk of refining capacity sits in Switzerland.

 

[k1976]

Diving a little deeper on what UBS warned about, the funding markets truly face a crisis.

"If shorts can’t source those bars easily, they’re forced to close out or roll positions, which cascades into a funding squeeze in London’s bullion banking system."

As @OneChanceFreedm pointed out:

"The dehypothecation angle is key.

Basel III’s Net Stable Funding Ratio was already nudging bullion banks toward holding more physical and less leveraged paper.

This move accelerates that pressure by physically constraining deliverable supply in the very instruments that underpin settlement.

In other words, it doesn’t just tighten the market, it undermines the ability to endlessly rehypothecate the same bars through the LBMA clearing system."

Finally, as we noted back in February, there is a potential ulterior motive here, which was also hinted at by The FT,suggesting that a gold revaluation by the US Treasury may be looming...

 

[k1976]

"currently, [US gold stocks] are valued at just $42 an ounce in national accounts. But knowledgeable observers reckon that if these were marked at current values — $2,800 an ounce — this could inject $800bn into the Treasury General Account, via a repurchase agreement. That might reduce the need to issue quite so many Treasury bonds this year"

Things have accelerated a little since then: if we assume the 39% tariff that applies to Swiss goods, then Gold is currently worth $4726 (1.39 x $3400)... which implies a $1.235 Trillion bump for the US Treasury.



Higher gold prices, the better (for Trump), as @OneChanceFreedm concludes:

"If intentional, it’s a geopolitical two for onewhere it weakens Switzerland’s refining dominance and force London’s bullion desks into a defensive funding position, all while boosting the relative leverage of U.S.-based refiners and COMEX as the global center of price discovery.

That’s a strategic strike on the gold market’s offshore liquidity loop."

 

[k1976]

Contradicting Report: The United States has imposed tariffs on imports of one-kilo gold bars… the letter said one-kilo and 100 ounce gold bars should be classified under a customs code subject to levels

https://money.usnews.com/investing/...oses-tariffs-on-one-kilo-gold-bars-ft-reports

Summary:
If you buy gold, Americans get import duties
If you sell gold, Americans get capital gain tax

Because Gold Bar is commodity gold or non-monetary gold , Boss

Not all gold is monetary gold de woh

 

[k1976]

Apple’s CEO gives Trump a gift of glass and 24-karat gold​

Tim Cook presented the gift at a White House event, where President Trump announced that Apple will invest an additional $100 billion in U.S. jobs and suppliers.

August 7, 2025 at 2:32 a.m. EDTYesterday at 2:32 a.m. EDT

2 min
Summary163
Apple CEO Tim Cook presents an engraved glass disk with a gold base to President Donald Trump during an event in the Oval Office at the White House on Wednesday. (Demetrius Freeman/The Washington Post)