Sad news just in:: SDP has just withdrawing from the by-election

[wwabbit]

Re: Not So

Not likely. Their past few vote shares have been 75% 66% 60%
There's always going to be diminishing returns, so if the trend continues, GE2016 would be 57%. Maybe 56% if you are optimistic.

If you apply a 6% across the board downswing for PAP to their GE2011 results to give them 54% vote share, they only lose 7 more seats in Potong Pasir SMC, Joo Chiat SMC and East Coast GRC

 

[metalmickey]

Re: Not So

Not likely. Their past few vote shares have been 75% 66% 60%
There's always going to be diminishing returns, so if the trend continues, GE2016 would be 57%. Maybe 56% if you are optimistic.

If you apply a 6% across the board downswing for PAP to their GE2011 results to give them 54% vote share, they only lose 7 more seats in Potong Pasir SMC, Joo Chiat SMC and East Coast GRC

54% vote share means PAP loses 20-30 seats. Because 50% vote share means you lose half the seats. How many seats did the PAP win with more than 6%? In addition to those you mentioned, Bishan Toa Payoh might fall, Marine Parade might fall, Tampines might fall, Punggol East might fall, Mountbatten, Sengkang West. And god knows who else - Holland Bukit Timah? All of these mentioned will be pretty close. How about this scenario: an 8% vote swing in 2 election cycles? Losing 30-40 seats in less than 10 years is very possible.

It is possible to redraw electoral boundaries to give the PAP advantage in many cases, but the GRC system can only protect the side which has more than 55%. If the opposition gets more than 55%, then the GRC system will actually work against the PAP and they will have less than 30 seats.

Just because it took more than 20 years to get to this point, it doesn't mean it will take another 20 years to get to the next stage. To all the people who can't wait for the PAP to lose power - good news is that it will happen sooner than you think. Bad news is that after it happens, things will get worse before they get better.

Yes we all want the PAP to fall to the opposition. But what if they're not ready? Things in politics happen very very quickly. How many people at the beginning of 2008 thought that they would see a black president of the United States in their lifetime?

If you want to see how fast things can change, compare this:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_China_legislative_election,_1986

with this:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_China_legislative_election,_2001

15 years difference. And what happened recently? Chen Shuibian in jail for corruption. Just something to think about.

 

[wwabbit]

Re: Not So

54% vote share means PAP loses 20-30 seats. Because 50% vote share means you lose half the seats. How many seats did the PAP win with more than 6%? In addition to those you mentioned, Bishan Toa Payoh might fall, Marine Parade might fall, Tampines might fall, Punggol East might fall, Mountbatten, Sengkang West. And god knows who else - Holland Bukit Timah? All of these mentioned will be pretty close. How about this scenario: an 8% vote swing in 2 election cycles? Losing 30-40 seats in less than 10 years is very possible.

Repeating your "54% vote share means PAP loses 20-30 seats." made up figure without checking the facts yourself doesn't make it correct. Go and check the numbers from GE2011, I've already done it for you and the only seats PAP would have lost is Potong Pasir SMC, Joo Chiat SMC and East Coast GRC. 6% is not enough for all the constituencies you have mentioned.

 

[PTADER]

Sad news just in:: SDP has just withdrawing from the by-election

It is not sad news. It's a huge blunder.

The SDP is, in effect, disallowing the PE electorate from exercising their democratic right to vote for the candidate or party they support. This is not "democracy".
It is match fixing. Democracy is when people and parties are free to contest on their platform of competing ideologies, policies and ideas and the electorate judges and votes accordingly.

The SDP has a compelling political visions and ideas. Unlike the WP, it has the guts to speak up and should be more than able to compete in the marketplace of competing political visions, ideas and ideologies vis-a-vis other parties. It has squandered the opportunity to do so.

The proposed candidates have wilted from the party's culture of beliefs, convictions and iron clad resolve. They have shockingly wilted under the thuggery of the platoon's worth of WP's astroturfers, Chinese chauvinists and race bigots. In effect, the proposed candidates see themselves as even lousier candidates as compared to LLL.

This is something I could never imagine would happen. When you join a political party, you would have known about the party's culture and ethos. Surely, those proposed candidates must have known about the ethos and iron clad resolve of the SDP prior to joining it. Withdrawal will not bring the party any plaudits. It will earn the party even more criticisms and contempt from the WP platoon's worth of astroturfers, the WP's Chinese chauvinists and the WP's "Guess the race" racial bigots

You can expect Chinese Chauvinist Low and WP's Princess Megawati Sukarnoputri to treat the SDP and other political parties (except the PAP) with even more contempt from now. The moment they have enough candidates to deploy, they will simply bulldoze, like what they did in the SDA's Punggol East, into any "territories" as they see fit.

But the good thing that has come out of this is that the WP's Chinese chauvinists and "Guess the race" racial bigots will be unable to point a finger of blame at the SDP when it loses the PE by-election. They will, instead, reveal even more of their chauvinism and racial bigotry. The intensity of their racial bigotry will increase against the minority Malays and Indians.

The Malays, Indians and what's left of the Eurasian community, will do well to carry out their calculations carefully.

My call to my Malay, Indian and Eurasian brothers and sisters is for them to cast their votes for parties other than the WP and its race bigots. Even the known PAP devil will be better than the WP and its race bigots. At the very least, they can be assured that the known PAP devil, as bad (and hated) as it is, will know its limits and will be committed to multiculturalism. It will safeguard the Malay and Indian and Eurasian interests as minority communities against the worrying trend towards Chinese chauvinism and the racism,chauvinism and racial bigotry as exemplified by the WP's "Guess The Race", "shitskin", "m&ds" bigots.

 

[metalmickey]

Re: Not So

Repeating your "54% vote share means PAP loses 20-30 seats." made up figure without checking the facts yourself doesn't make it correct. Go and check the numbers from GE2011, I've already done it for you and the only seats PAP would have lost is Potong Pasir SMC, Joo Chiat SMC and East Coast GRC. 6% is not enough for all the constituencies you have mentioned.

Yes, but a lot of them will be teetering on the edge. There's a reason why you picked the 6% figure. Do you think that all seats will swing 6% uniformly? Some will swing 4%, others will swing 8%. What if it were 7%, 8%? Since you've seen the figures, you know what I mean - it is a world of difference between 6% and 8%. What happens when you swing 8%, 9% in 2 cycles?

Even if the projection were a stretched projection, do you ever plan for the future thinking that the most drastic, most dramatic scenario will never happen? Are you scared to ask yourself what happens when the PAP loses 30 seats?

It doesn't negate my main point: Taiwan took 12 years to get from a position where the KMT had 90% of the seats to a position where they got less than 50% of the seats. Once the popular vote goes below 60%, changes start taking place very rapidly, and - as we will probably see - at a faster pace than the opposition can handle. And no, it's not as though Taiwan was a free country in 1986, which is where I started counting those 12 years.

So I think that some people have got it all wrong. The question is not, "how will the opposition gang up against the PAP so that they can win more seats". The question is "how will the opposition work together if and when it finds itself with more seats than it can handle". One of the first questions is - what is Prime Minister Low Thia Khiang going to be like?

Singaporeans are acting like rebellious teenagers. I'm not happy with my parents, I'll run away from home. OK, fine. Run away from home. But that means that Mummy and Daddy aren't going to save you when you're homeless and living out in the streets by yourself.

 

[Vigilante]

Gigantic drama-mama waste of everyone's fucking time.

Fucking chee is a clown

 

[zhihau]

Re: Not So

and the only seats PAP would have lost is Potong Pasir SMC, Joo Chiat SMC and East Coast GRC. 6% is not enough for all the constituencies you have mentioned.

for the next GE, hopefully oppositions can take down a total of 6 GRCs (Aljunied, Ang Mo Kio, East Coast, Marine Parade, Pasir Ris-Punggol & Tampines) and 4 SMCs (Hougang, JooChiat, Punggol East & Potong Pasir) :p:p:p
me very greedy hor?

 

[metalmickey]

Re: Not So

for the next GE, hopefully oppositions can take down a total of 6 GRCs (Aljunied, Ang Mo Kio, East Coast, Marine Parade, Pasir Ris-Punggol & Tampines) and 4 SMCs (Hougang, JooChiat, Punggol East & Potong Pasir) :p:p:p
me very greedy hor?

Good. I like this attitude. You think of the scenario representing the greatest progress. And then after that you think about how the hell you're going to cope after you got that. 30 seats. 40 seats. All your good friends in parliament. People can say whatever they want now because the PAP is no longer powerful enough to sue you for opening your mouth. Then we can open our eyes big big and see how this opposition unity stuff works out.

Hopefully we don't get Taiwanese style fistfights in parliament hor. Limpeh is not scare mongering. Limpeh is trying to make sure that when you say that you want something, that is really really what you want.

 

[Fook Seng]

LTK has always been in the thick of the hustings at Hougang all the years.

If that is what you are meaning by helming, then it is as good as not saying it. Of course, LTK was involved in all the rallies but so was SL and so was PS, and so was GG etc. So all these people were indispensable to win Hougang which I agree? But it is not just LTK.

 

[Fook Seng]

Not likely. Their past few vote shares have been 75% 66% 60%
There's always going to be diminishing returns, so if the trend continues, GE2016 would be 57%. Maybe 56% if you are optimistic.

If you apply a 6% across the board downswing for PAP to their GE2011 results to give them 54% vote share, they only lose 7 more seats in Potong Pasir SMC, Joo Chiat SMC and East Coast GRC

The 6% downswing may not be across the board. Those where Opposition have high %, it may be difficult to increase further (again diminishing returns).

 

[Fook Seng]

Repeating your "54% vote share means PAP loses 20-30 seats." made up figure without checking the facts yourself doesn't make it correct. Go and check the numbers from GE2011, I've already done it for you and the only seats PAP would have lost is Potong Pasir SMC, Joo Chiat SMC and East Coast GRC. 6% is not enough for all the constituencies you have mentioned.

As I mentioned on an earlier post, you are applying 6 % across the board. Likely that those areas where Opposition has the highest %, they are not likely to have a high vote swing. As an extreme example, if your % win is already 94%, is it likely you will get 100%. The same happens in the commercial world, the higher your market, the greater chance is your market share likely to fall. As to the question whether with 44 to 45 % share, will the Opposition win one-third of the seats, the answer is yes. WP had shown it in GE2011. Their vote share was around 45% of the total votes and they won around one-third of the seats they competed in.

 

[metalmickey]

The 6% downswing may not be across the board. Those where Opposition have high %, it may be difficult to increase further (again diminishing returns).

I don't agree. Those where the opposition have high % are the ones who are going to increase. How did Aljunied fall from the PAP? Because everybody in Aljunied knew that they were the "chosen one". If you are undecided and you are not in Aljunied, you vote opposition, because you know that if there are only a few opposition people in parliament, it's your job to send them in there. If you're not in Aljunied and you're not sure, you vote PAP because you're scared that your vote will set off a freak result.

How much was Aljunied GRC swing from 2006 to 2011? More than 10%.

All those people in East Coast and Joo Chiat know that it's their turn to send more opposition in, and that's what they're going to do. All those non-battleground places will hold back because they don't want a freak result. How about Bishan Toa Payoh, where all those people want to vote Chiam See Tong but were worried about his health? What if you put an all star opposition team in there?

At this point in time, I am fairly confident of two things:

1. I will live long enough to see a non-PAP government in Singapore.
2. The first opposition government will act like blur fucks during their first term.

 

[metalmickey]

Let's look at the 2030 cabinet, OK?

Prime Minister - Low Thia Khiang
Deputy Prime Minister / Minister of Law - Sylvia Lim
Minister of Finance - Tan Jee Say
Minister of Defence - Chen Show Mao
Minister of Home Affairs - Gerald Giam
Minister of Education - Lee Li Lian
Minister of Manpower - Vincent Wijeysingha
Minister of Health - Paul Thambyah
Minister of Foreign Affairs - Ben Pwee?
Minister of Community - Nicole Seah
Minister of Trade and Industry - Yee Jenn Jong

Think about it hor. This is what you want.

 

[Fook Seng]

Let's look at the 2030 cabinet, OK?

Prime Minister - Low Thia Khiang
Deputy Prime Minister / Minister of Law - Sylvia Lim
Minister of Finance - Tan Jee Say
Minister of Defence - Chen Show Mao
Minister of Home Affairs - Gerald Giam
Minister of Education - Lee Li Lian
Minister of Manpower - Vincent Wijeysingha
Minister of Health - Paul Thambyah
Minister of Foreign Affairs - Ben Pwee?
Minister of Community - Nicole Seah
Minister of Trade and Industry - Yee Jenn Jong

Think about it hor. This is what you want.

Believe me, if there is going to be a Govt comprising today's parties, it will be not just these people.

 

[metalmickey]

Believe me, if there is going to be a Govt comprising today's party, it will be not just these people.

The idea is there. These are the responsibilities that opposition people will taking on themselves eventually. And if there are other people, they will be even more inexperienced than all the names already mentioned.

 

[Fook Seng]

I don't agree. Those where the opposition have high % are the ones who are going to increase. How did Aljunied fall from the PAP? Because everybody in Aljunied knew that they were the "chosen one". If you are undecided and you are not in Aljunied, you vote opposition, because you know that if there are only a few opposition people in parliament, it's your job to send them in there. If you're not in Aljunied and you're not sure, you vote PAP because you're scared that your vote will set off a freak result.

How much was Aljunied GRC swing from 2006 to 2011? More than 10%.

All those people in East Coast and Joo Chiat know that it's their turn to send more opposition in, and that's what they're going to do. All those non-battleground places will hold back because they don't want a freak result. How about Bishan Toa Payoh, where all those people want to vote Chiam See Tong but were worried about his health? What if you put an all star opposition team in there?

At this point in time, I am fairly confident of two things:

1. I will live long enough to see a non-PAP government in Singapore.
2. The first opposition government will act like blur fucks during their first term.

Your across the board 6% vote swing would mean that WP getting more votes than PAP in the areas they contest in since they have already obtained around 45% in GE2011. What is more likely is that they will gain on PAP but still below the 50% mark. To achieve the 46% mark average for the opposition, WP needs to gain 2 to 3 % points in all areas by doing very well in a few areas like East Coast and PE. The greatest gain must come from the other parties, in particularly NSP and SDP and match WP's GE 2011 performance with a 45%. They really have to put their act together, moderating their platforms. Remember their target is the electorate. What do these people want? If not then WP would need to replicate their GE2011 performance in more areas, presumably in areas where the two or three weaker parties are. This is probably easier. I believe in 2016, there are likely to be 3CF in these areas but the areas where the 3 strongest parties are need to be straight fights. It is better for SSP to merge with one of the larger parties. In any case, all parties have to grow significantly. Otherwise, we will just have to wait for another 5 years.

 

[Fook Seng]

The idea is there. These are the responsibilities that opposition people will taking on themselves eventually. And if there are other people, they will be even more inexperienced than all the names already mentioned.

The new people have to be in the average better than the present lot. The present politicians are the ideologists but the job of running the country may have to come from a newer batch, not just professionals but people who can really move things. The present lot become the spiritual backbone of their parties, the magnets to pull in new people. If they dream of being the PM, they better change their career now. Same with the PAP. Any in the present lot who wishes to be PM in 2030 will need to compete fiercely with several others and it will be very unlike today - to to be just appointed. May also vary term by term.

 

[zhihau]

Re: Not So

Good. I like this attitude. You think of the scenario representing the greatest progress.

hehehe...
my primary goal has always been fixated on getting rid of the two thirds majority the MIW holds in Parliament. and let's be honest, much as we change the Ministers at the front, me thought it's the dinosaurs in the back room need to be given a kick or two in their arse :p:p:p

 

[zhihau]

1. I will live long enough to see a non-PAP government in Singapore.
2. The first opposition government will act like blur fucks during their first term.

sounds very much like a coalition government to me :p:p:p
great woody! our Swiss Standards of Governance

 

[cass888]

Her Majesty's opposition or, in the Singapore context, His Excellency's opposition comprises the MPs on the opposing bench ready to cross the floor and take over the government. Even Lina, JJ and Gerald can theoretically become Ministers. But the MONGREL who bit his masters' hands LOUDHAILER chee soon juan cannot.

No alliance is definite and infinite.