Russia HK Leow!

[sochi2014]

 

[Seee3]

With simple collaboration with the Arabs, Russia is on its knees. The wonder of being the reserve currency with gold + oil being traded in USd. However, credit must be given for the speed that they can bring down oil price. Give others no chance to react.

 

[Satyr]

With simple collaboration with the Arabs, Russia is on its knees. The wonder of being the reserve currency with gold + oil being traded in USd. However, credit must be given for the speed that they can bring down oil price. Give others no chance to react.

Economic warfare is best waged against relatively weak countries. Think Iraq, Iran , South Africa. Using that against countries with strong military might will cause more problems later. Russia will not take this lying down.

 

[Seee3]

Economic warfare is best waged against relatively weak countries. Think Iraq, Iran , South Africa. Using that against countries with strong military might will cause more problems later. Russia will not take this lying down.

I share your view. I think it is just a show of might and most importantly Russia can't pinpoint that it is US that is the one behind, manipulating the oil price.

They won't allow Russia to collapse. After a while, the ruble should stablise but Putin's reputation in his own country has already been hurt by this ruse.

 

[johnny333]

With the drop in oil prices. Some gov'ts are making a killing from maintaining the high prices that they are still charging e.g. electricity prices, pump prices

For the next GE I hope people remember that.

 

[Equalisation]

With the drop in oil prices. Some gov'ts are making a killing from maintaining the high prices that they are still charging e.g. electricity prices, pump prices

For the next GE I hope people remember that.

Will bus and mrt fare be reduced soon ?

 

[Seee3]

With the drop in oil prices. Some gov'ts are making a killing from maintaining the high prices that they are still charging e.g. electricity prices, pump prices

For the next GE I hope people remember that.

It depends on the prices of the future contracts that they have committed i.e. short and long hedging. In the current situation where price dropped so suddenly, I think most companies without insider info did not benefit from the price drop yet. Though spot price have dived 50%, they are still paying the old price as they are taking delivery for the contracts that they have committed much earlier. If oil price remains low, than the consumers will benefit from it after some 3 months later. At the end, the money goes to the one who engineered the whole process. They should be selling like crazy months earlier at a high price. If the price is going to go up later, they will be buying like no tomorrow now in future contracts. It is all a game, but the general economic situation must be right to play the game. In my opinion, China is beginning to lose its economic influence which is why they can succeed in the game now.

I stand corrected as I am still a noob in futures and hedging despite after paying quite substantial tuition fee.

PS
Exchange rate must also be taken into consideration. For example if the usd is to appreciate by the same 50% against the purchaser's currency in future, the benefit from the oil price drop will be gone.

 

[johnny333]

It depends on the prices of the future contracts that they have committed i.e. short and long hedging. In the current situation where price dropped so suddenly, I think most companies without insider info did not benefit from the price drop yet. Though spot price have dived 50%, they are still paying the old price as they are taking delivery for the contracts that they have committed much earlier. If oil price remains low, than the consumers will benefit from it after some 3 months later. At the end, the money goes to the one who engineered the whole process. They should be selling like crazy months earlier at a high price. If the price is going to go up later, they will be buying like no tomorrow now in future contracts. It is all a game, but the general economic situation must be right to play the game. In my opinion, China is beginning to lose its economic influence which is why they can succeed in the game now.

I stand corrected as I am still a noob in futures and hedging despite after paying quite substantial tuition fee.

PS
Exchange rate must also be taken into consideration. For example if the usd is to appreciate by the same 50% against the purchaser's currency in future, the benefit from the oil price drop will be gone.

I have little knowledge about hedging process. I'm looking at the the trends that is going on in Malaysia & the world.

Malaysia has been dropping it's oil prices because of the falling global oil prices. Even with the drop the companies there are being accused of price fixing
http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/...uel-prices-dont-reflect-global-rates-says-pkr


Spore has never had a major change in fuel prices because the PAP is making $$$ from petrol sales so of course it is in their interest to maintain high prices. With the falling oil prices their profit margin are actually increasing. Cars going to Malaysia face the 3/4 tank rule. The 3/4 tank rule is prevent Sporeans from going to Malaysia for cheaper fuel.

Spore's power is generated using cheaper gas. However the price of electricity that Sporeans pay is tied to the price of petrol & not gas. This is unfair & is obviously profiteering

I'm getting really tired of paying the PAP tax. In the past at least we got order. However nowadays we have so many problems e.g. congestion, breakdowns, flooding, diseases, social problems,...

 

[johnny333]

Will bus and mrt fare be reduced soon ?

If you want cheaper you will have to vote for new management lah.

 

[Seee3]

I have little knowledge about hedging process. I'm looking at the the trends that is going on in Malaysia & the world.

Malaysia has been dropping it's oil prices because of the falling global oil prices. Even with the drop the companies there are being accused of price fixing
http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/...uel-prices-dont-reflect-global-rates-says-pkr


Spore has never had a major change in fuel prices because the PAP is making $$$ from petrol sales so of course it is in their interest to maintain high prices. With the falling oil prices their profit margin are actually increasing. Cars going to Malaysia face the 3/4 tank rule. The 3/4 tank rule is prevent Sporeans from going to Malaysia for cheaper fuel.

Spore's power is generated using cheaper gas. However the price of electricity that Sporeans pay is tied to the price of petrol & not gas. This is unfair & is obviously profiteering

I'm getting really tired of paying the PAP tax. In the past at least we got order. However nowadays we have so many problems e.g. congestion, breakdowns, flooding, diseases, social problems,...

Attached http://www.aip.com.au/pricing/pdf/AIP_Annual_Retail_Price_Data.xls contains data of the petrol retail price in different parts of Australia. After currency conversion, it is quite the same as the price here. As for power generation, it is also a ??? to me.

 

[johnny333]

Attached http://www.aip.com.au/pricing/pdf/AIP_Annual_Retail_Price_Data.xls contains data of the petrol retail price in different parts of Australia. After currency conversion, it is quite the same as the price here. As for power generation, it is also a ??? to me.

I don't have Excel so can't open the file so I can't comment on the data.

Cost of petrol is determine on such factors like distance from refinery, distribution costs, gov't taxes on petrol,.. etc.
Spore has a refinery on Bukom & the country is very compact it should be cheaper to distribute the petrol within the country.

When you look at Australia it is a big, big,.... country. So it should cost the fuel companies more to distribute all that oil. The gov't taxation on petrol is probably used to fund various social programs like unemployment benefits, ... etc. I am not familiar with Australia so I can't comment.

I know more about Spore & there is almost no social programs that the PAP has to fund. Whatever the PAP collects on taxes on petrol goes to ..??? Same thing with COE, ERP, road tax, it goes to...???

 

[Seee3]

I don't have Excel so can't open the file so I can't comment on the data.

Cost of petrol is determine on such factors like distance from refinery, distribution costs, gov't taxes on petrol,.. etc.
Spore has a refinery on Bukom & the country is very compact it should be cheaper to distribute the petrol within the country.

When you look at Australia it is a big, big,.... country. So it should cost the fuel companies more to distribute all that oil. The gov't taxation on petrol is probably used to fund various social programs like unemployment benefits, ... etc. I am not familiar with Australia so I can't comment.

I know more about Spore & there is almost no social programs that the PAP has to fund. Whatever the PAP collects on taxes on petrol goes to ..??? Same thing with COE, ERP, road tax, it goes to...???

I agree that the benefits in Sg is no match to that in Australia. My old friend migrated there some 20 years ago. His reasoning was simple. He has 5 kids and say each kid cost $200k for uni education in Australia if he remained in Sg, by migrating there, he saved 1 million.

 

[johnny333]

I agree that the benefits in Sg is no match to that in Australia. My old friend migrated there some 20 years ago. His reasoning was simple. He has 5 kids and say each kid cost $200k for uni education in Australia if he remained in Sg, by migrating there, he saved 1 million.

I have a bunch of relatives & friends who are now Australians. Not all of them are wealthy however even a 50 year old can still find work there as a bank teller. Unlike in Spore where job opportunities for seniors are limited e.g. driving a cab, secuirity guard, mlm, trader,..

Many of the older Aussies don't have to worry about their health expenses because they have acces to medical insurance.

 

[BalanceOfPower]

Russia’s economic troubles could last two years: Putin

Putin supports the actions of the central bank and government in a crisis he blames on 'external factors'

PUBLISHED : Thursday, 18 December, 2014, 6:08pm
UPDATED : Thursday, 18 December, 2014, 6:21pm

Reuters in Moscow

Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks during his annual news conference in Moscow. Photo: AP

President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday Russia’s economy would rebound after the rouble’s collapse against the dollar but warned that it could take two years for the country to emerge from crisis.

Under pressure to show he has a plan to pull Russia out of crisis at his end-of-year news conference, Putin supported the actions of the central bank and government in a crisis he blamed on external factors but said further measures would be required.

Russia’s economy is heading into recession in what one minister called a “perfect storm” of low oil prices, Western sanctions in the Ukraine crisis and global economic problems. The rouble is down 46 per cent against the dollar this year.

“If the situation develops unfavourably, we will have to amend our plans. Beyond doubt, we will have to cut some spending. But a positive turn and emergence from the current situation are unavoidable,” Putin said.

“The growth of the global economy will continue and our economy will rebound from the current situation.”

He said Russia must diversify its economy to reduce dependence on oil, its major export and a key source of state income and a recovery could start at some point next year.

The rouble was more than 2 per cent weaker on the day, despite central bank action to prop up the currency and around 45 per cent down against the dollar this year.

Putin had been silent as the currency collapsed this week before recovering some ground.

A prominent opponent, former Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov, said the crisis showed Putin had mismanaged the economy and that he should organise free elections to quietly end his almost 15-year domination of Russia.

“Russia is going into decline,” Kasyanov said in an interview late on Wednesday, suggesting Putin should accept that “he needs an exit strategy” to leave power.

Economy Minister Alexei Ulyukayev said in a newspaper interview the Western sanctions were likely to last “a very long time” and Russia was paying the price for failing to carry out structural reforms, describing events as “the perfect storm”.

“When a US law is passed it is very hard to change it afterwards - looks like it will be in place for decades,” Ulyukayev said, referring to US moves on sanctions.

Opinion polls show Putin has sky-high popularity ratings since annexing the Crimea peninsula from Ukraine in March, but the rouble’s decline and Russia’s slide towards recession could erode faith in Putin’s ability to provide financial stability.

A 6.5 percentage point increase in the key lending rate to 17 per cent failed to prop the rouble up on Tuesday. Russia has also spent more than US$80 billion this year trying to shore it up. Putin failed in a state-of-the-nation address on December 4 to offer any big ideas to turn around the economy.

His annual news conference and phone-in, shown live on television, is usually a marathon performance that can last more than four hours.

The European Union and the United States have imposed several rounds of sanctions on Moscow over the seizure of Crimea and because of its backing for pro-Russian separatists in a conflict that has killed more than 4,700 people.

EU and US officials say they have seen some positive signs from recent comments by Russian officials on Ukraine but want Moscow to do more to resolve the crisis.

 

[Wedge]

What you missed at Vladimir Putin's quite crazy press conference

http://i100.independent.co.uk/artic...tins-quite-crazy-press-conference--eJCWLDawYlhttp://What you missed at Vladimir ...tins-quite-crazy-press-conference--eJCWLDawYl

 

[Hypocrisy]

Putin says Russia economy will be cured, offers no remedy

By Timothy Heritage and Alexei Anishchuk
MOSCOW Thu Dec 18, 2014 1:02pm EST

Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks during his annual end-of-year news conference in Moscow, December 18, 2014. REUTERS-Maxim Zmeyev

(Reuters) - President Vladimir Putin assured Russians on Thursday that the economy would rebound after the ruble's dramatic slide this year but offered no remedy for a deepening financial crisis.

Defiant and confident at a three-hour news conference, Putin blamed the economic problems on external factors and said the crisis over Ukraine was caused by the West, which he accused of building a "virtual" Berlin Wall to contain Russia.

At times sneering, at others cracking jokes, he ignored pressure to say how he will fix an economy facing what his economy minister calls a "perfect storm" of low oil prices, Western sanctions over Ukraine and global financial problems.

The rouble has fallen about 45 percent against the dollar this year, and suffered particularly steep falls on Monday and Tuesday, but Putin refused to call it a crisis and said it would eventually rise again.

"If the situation develops unfavorably, we will have to amend our plans. Beyond doubt, we will have to cut some (spending). But a positive turn and emergence from the current situation are inevitable," Putin said in comments to a packed conference center that were broadcast live to the nation.

Although he said the recovery might take two years, much will depend on how long the West maintains sanctions on Russia over its role in the Ukraine crisis.

European Union diplomats said the 28-nation bloc would ban investment in Crimea from Saturday over Russia's annexation of the Black Sea peninsula and President Barack Obama is set to sign legislation authorizing new U.S. sanctions.

But Putin showed no sign of heeding a call by EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini for "a radical change in attitude toward the rest of the world and to switch to a cooperative mode".

Sitting at a big desk in front of two large screens showing close-ups of his face, a white mug with a presidential crest on beside him, Putin appeared mainly intent on showing Russians he is in command and will not kow-tow to the West.

DIVERSIFICATION PLEDGE

The former KGB spy said Russia must diversify its economy to reduce dependence on oil, its major export and a key source of state income, but he gave no details and has said many times during 15 years in power that he will do this.

The rouble slipped as he spoke, and was about 2 percent weaker against the dollar on the day. The central bank increased its key lending rate by 6.5 percentage points to 17 percent on Tuesday, and has spent more than $80 billion trying to shore up the rouble this year, but to little avail.

Although Putin said the central bank and government had acted "adequately", he chided the bank for not halting foreign exchange interventions sooner, suggesting more decisive action might have made this week's big rate rise unnecessary.

"All this implies pretty big divisions within the administration as to how to react to the crisis and pressure on the rouble," said Timothy Ash, head of emerging market research at Standard Bank in London, adding that heads could roll.

Neil Shearing, chief emerging markets economist at Capital Economics in London, said Putin signaled no change of policy and capital controls remained "a measure of last resort".

"Whatever happens, a deep recession now looms," he said.

Putin's popularity has soared over the annexation of Crimea but the ruble's decline could erode faith in his ability to provide financial stability, an important source of his support.

An opponent, former Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov, said problems would mount as prices are expected to surge next year and Putin would need "an exit strategy" to leave power.

But Putin said he felt the "support of the Russian people", though he had not decided yet whether to seek a new six-year term in an election due in 2018.

Asked about Ukraine, where Russia has irked the West by backing pro-Russian separatists fighting in two eastern regions, Putin said Moscow wanted a political resolution to a conflict that has killed 4,700 people.

He also called for "political unity", suggesting he does not intend to annex the regions that have rebelled, and avoided calling them "New Russia", a phrase he has used in the past.

But he blamed NATO for the worst relations between Moscow and the West in decades.

"Didn't they tell us after the collapse of the Berlin Wall that NATO would not expand eastwards? But it happened immediately. Two waves of expansion. Is that not a wall? ... It's a virtual wall," he said.

(Additional reporting by Moscow newsroom; Editing by Giles Elgood)