Potong Pasir to join GRC?

[scroobal]

We know that Joo Chiat will vanish. Now PP which had the slimmest of 200 odd votes are likely to go as well. The opinion of the PAP strategist is that a viable opposition candidate will take this constituency back.

Looks like East Coast will fall as WP will likely put their new A team. Marine Parade is an aberration due to Kate Spade and Miss NSP

This is the list of bottom performers where the PAP is concerned.

1) Potong Pasir 0.8%
2) Joo Chiat 2%
3) East Coast 9.6%
4) Marine Parade 13.2%
5) Punggol East SMC 13.5% (lost in by elections)
6) Bishan Toa Payoh GRC 13.8%

 

[McDonaldsKid]

We know that Joo Chiat will vanish. Now PP which had the slimmest of 200 odd votes are likely to go as well. The opinion of the PAP strategist is that a viable opposition candidate will take this constituency back.

Looks like East Coast will fall as WP will likely put their new A team. Marine Parade is an aberration due to Kate Spade and Miss NSP

This is the list of bottom performers where the PAP is concerned.

1) Potong Pasir 0.8%
2) Joo Chiat 2%
3) East Coast 9.6%
4) Marine Parade 13.2%
5) Punggol East SMC 13.5% (lost in by elections)
6) Bishan Toa Payoh GRC 13.8%

Wouldn't absorbing PP into a GRC hurt the PAP? People nowadays are more savvy and they can recognise gerrymeandering. Also, what's the support for Chiam like in PP? And which GRC is PP nearest to?

 

[Charlie99]

Wouldn't absorbing PP into a GRC hurt the PAP? People nowadays are more savvy and they can recognise gerrymeandering. Also, what's the support for Chiam like in PP? And which GRC is PP nearest to?

I believe that Potong Pasir is in the heart of Toa Payoh, including part of Lorong 8,
and it looks like Potong Pasir and Toa Payoh-Bishan are vulnerable.

Wish the residents there, will vote strategically for the non-white.

 

[Satyr]

We know that Joo Chiat will vanish. Now PP which had the slimmest of 200 odd votes are likely to go as well. The opinion of the PAP strategist is that a viable opposition candidate will take this constituency back.

Looks like East Coast will fall as WP will likely put their new A team. Marine Parade is an aberration due to Kate Spade and Miss NSP

This is the list of bottom performers where the PAP is concerned.

1) Potong Pasir 0.8%
2) Joo Chiat 2%
3) East Coast 9.6%
4) Marine Parade 13.2%
5) Punggol East SMC 13.5% (lost in by elections)
6) Bishan Toa Payoh GRC 13.8%

Don't think anything will help the PAP next time. Absorbing PP in a GRC will make them look cowardly and risk losing more votes. And they will have a solid core of opposition supporters contaminating a GRC. IF PP is separate, even if they lose, it's just one seat.

 

[sochi2014]

Opposition rising from the east?

How romantic!

 

[Thick Face Black Heart]

Most likely both PP and JC will be absorbed and to compensate, some new SMCs will be carved out to appease voters.

Interesting alternative to above scenario: Maybe even carve out a couple of "dangerous" areas to become SMCs on the basis that its better to lose one SMC rather than lose one whole GRC to opposition? I'm not sure how the math will work out, maybe some statistician here can tell me whether its feasible.

Where's aruvandil by the way?

 

[GoldenDragon]

Most likely both PP and JC will be absorbed and to compensate, some new SMCs will be carved out to appease voters.

Interesting alternative to above scenario: Maybe even carve out a couple of "dangerous" areas to become SMCs on the basis that its better to lose one SMC rather than lose one whole GRC to opposition? I'm not sure how the math will work out, maybe some statistician here can tell me whether its feasible.

Agree with scenarios highlighted. A key factor will be inputs from intel on ground support.

My hunch is both JC and PP will merge with a GRC. Interesting times ahead.

 

[steffychun]

If they merge, they will have to think which low key Minister to throw into the supra GRC. PAP lost George Yeo and a couple other big shots. And who they may be up against.

 

[3_M]

With only 17k voters, it difficult to imagine PAP will let PP remain this way. Either they will redraw the boundary of PP to include some neighboring precincts or absorb PP into GRC. My guess is the former . In this Internet age and political climate, PAP is wary about the perception that they are so kiasu to resort to such underhand tactic so soon after retaking an opposition ward. So PP will likely remain but become bigger in size.

For JC I think it will have a higher chance of being absorbed than PP. PAP could resort to the tactic of inducing 3CF by absorbing JC into MP GRC. As for MP GRC TPL has been working quietly on the ground in order to prove critics wrong in the next election. I don't think they are in danger of falling especially if the opponent is NSP.

To EC GRC, WP does stand a good chance. Question is will WP put all their best man to assemble a B' team or split the talents evenly with C' team and even D' team? LSS already said he will remain in EC for next GE and I take this as a signal that EC GRC is still in critical zone since PAP won't risk losing any minister by retiring the aging LSS.

Lastly BTP GRC, unlikely CST will be able to equal his performance factoring his health and the fact that most of those people who contested here already left for DPP .

 

[Thick Face Black Heart]

Agree with scenarios highlighted. A key factor will be inputs from intel on ground support.

My hunch is both JC and PP will merge with a GRC. Interesting times ahead.

I wonder whether Charles Chong will stay. Awfully quiet since GE. That guy is a liability who will drag down any GRC team. Then again PAP is facing such a dearth of talent I don't think it will field any good team.

 

[GoldenDragon]

I wonder whether Charles Chong will stay. Awfully quiet since GE. That guy is a liability who will drag down any GRC team. Then again PAP is facing such a dearth of talent I don't think it will field any good team.

Likely to step down imo.

 

[steffychun]

With only 17k voters, it difficult to imagine PAP will let PP remain this way. Either they will redraw the boundary of PP to include some neighboring precincts or absorb PP into GRC. My guess is the former . In this Internet age and political climate, PAP is wary about the perception that they are so kiasu to resort to such underhand tactic so soon after retaking an opposition ward. So PP will likely remain but become bigger in size.

For JC I think it will have a higher chance of being absorbed than PP. PAP could resort to the tactic of inducing 3CF by absorbing JC into MP GRC. As for MP GRC TPL has been working quietly on the ground in order to prove critics wrong in the next election. I don't think they are in danger of falling especially if the opponent is NSP.

To EC GRC, WP does stand a good chance. Question is will WP put all their best man to assemble a B' team or split the talents evenly with C' team and even D' team? LSS already said he will remain in EC for next GE and I take this as a signal that EC GRC is still in critical zone since PAP won't risk losing any minister by retiring the aging LSS.

Lastly BTP GRC, unlikely CST will be able to equal his performance factoring his health and the fact that most of those people who contested here already left for DPP .

Actually I think LSS may be the sacrificial lamb for the PAP. LHL and his inner circle is probably thinking of raising some of the 2011 newbies to LSS post which is easily changeable. If not as I said, the PAP will have to think which minister or low cabinet person to throw into the fire, PP merge or not.

 

[scroobal]

PP being absorbed only surfaced recently. I think they know that any more seats lost would damage irreparably their future. They will do what they did in 1997 by extensive re-drawing of boundaries and increasing the size of GRCs.

With only 17k voters, it difficult to imagine PAP will let PP remain this way. Either they will redraw the boundary of PP to include some neighboring precincts or absorb PP into GRC. My guess is the former . In this Internet age and political climate, PAP is wary about the perception that they are so kiasu to resort to such underhand tactic so soon after retaking an opposition ward. So PP will likely remain but become bigger in size.

Lastly BTP GRC, unlikely CST will be able to equal his performance factoring his health and the fact that most of those people who contested here already left for DPP .

 

[GoldenDragon]

Actually I think LSS may be the sacrificial lamb for the PAP. LHL and his inner circle is probably thinking of raising some of the 2011 newbies to LSS post which is easily changeable. If not as I said, the PAP will have to think which minister or low cabinet person to throw into the fire, PP merge or not.

Heng Chee How will take over LSS bo portfolio post. He is Pinky's bro-in-law afterall. Now a SMS at PMO.

 

[steffychun]

Heng Chee How will take over LSS bo portfolio post. He is Pinky's bro-in-law afterall. Now a SMS at PMO.

hmmm yeah good possibility.

 

[zhihau]

PAP could resort to the tactic of inducing 3CF by absorbing JC into MP GRC.

Telok Kurau Road, the prominent dividing line :o:o:o

 

[kukubird58]

hahaha.....my master is at it again....
make predictions....
heng heng hit the jackpot...then thumps his chest and claims credits....
more often proven wrong, pretends like nothing happens and try again.....
lidat lew lian pau jiak one......lol.

 

[scroobal]

Yeah, hope he comes back.

Where's aruvandil by the way?

 

[3_M]

PP being absorbed only surfaced recently. I think they know that any more seats lost would damage irreparably their future. They will do what they did in 1997 by extensive re-drawing of boundaries and increasing the size of GRCs.

Gerrymandering is effective when more than half the seats were uncontested. The coming election we expect all seats to be contested thus limiting their room to drastically change the boundaries. This is especially so in the east as I expect WP to contest in close proximity to counter PAP gerrymandering tactic. I do expect WP to contest in PR-P GRC, TMP GRC (declared) in addition to where they contested during GE11. By the law of large number, bigger GRC size means the result in the GRC will be closer to the national average. It ideal in situation when PAP can garner above 60% nationwide but will be risky if the overall score is reduced perhaps to 55% and below. (I am sure they can run simulation on this) Maybe PAP might decide to limit lost by shrinking the size of GRC this time round.

 

[zhihau]

Opposition rising from the east?

somehow just got reminded of 东方不败。。。 日出东方，唯我不败。