Possible electoral map for the GE?

[lightblue77]

Any comments?

GRC
4-seats: 3 x 4 = 12 seats
5-seats: 5 x 11 = 55 seats

SMC: 17 seats

Total: 84 seats

1.West Coast GRC (5 to 4)
2.Redhill/Commonwealth/Telok Blangah SMC (breakaway from WC GRC)
3.Jurong GRC (5) – overlapping between WC and Jurong GRC
4.Hong Kah GRC (5)
5.Choa Chu Kang SMC
6.Holland-Bukit Timah GRC (5)
7.Bukit Panjang SMC
8.Tanjong Pagar GRC (6 to 5)
9.Whampoa-Balestier SMC (breakaway from TP GRC; upper region Thompson hospital)
10.Bishan-Toa Payoh GRC (5)
11.Potong Pasir SMC
12.Sembawang-Woodlands GRC GRC (6 to 5)
13.Chong Pang SMC (breakaway from Sembawang GRC)
14.Nee Soon East SMC
15.Nee Soon Central SMC
16.Ang Mo Kio GRC (6 to 4)
17.Nee Soon South SMC (breakaway from AMK GRC – previously was a SMC)
18.Jalan Kayu-Baungkok SMC (breakaway from AMK GRC)
19.Yio Chu Kang SMC
20.Aljunied GRC (5 to 4)
21.Hougang Central SMC (breakaway from Aljunied GRC)
22.Pasir Ris-Punggol GRC (6 to 5)
23.Hougang North SMC (breakaway from PRP GRC – Hougang part)
24.Old Hougang SMC (existing SMC won by WP)
25.Jalan Besar GRC (5)
26.Macpherson SMC
27.Marine Parade GRC (6 to 5)
28.Braddell-Serangoon SMC (breakaway from MP GRC)
29.Joo Chiat SMC
30.Tampines GRC (5)
31.East Coast GRC (5)

 

[Cestbon]

Wasting time to debate. Just wait for the news. Whatever the map. This election PAP will lost some seat maybe 1 or 2 GRC.
Almost 80% younger generation/voter will vote for Oposition. That the fact. But the 1st time voter only about 10% vote so will not have major impact.
Need to wait for 10 mnore year we will see the shift pattern.

 

[Sideswipe]

Whatever the map. This election PAP will lost some seat maybe 1 or 2 GRC.
Almost 80% younger generation/voter will vote for Oposition. That the fact.

you see any GE opinion polls on voter<30 yrs old? how much of 80% or 60% of younger generations are as a percentage among the whole electorate. let say voter<30 yrs old? are uniformly 5%-8% across all constituencies. That is not enough as pap hold big leads ( 30%+ ) in almost all constituencies.

I don't share your optimism. oppositions probably need 42% nationwide votes to be sure of winning a GRC. 42% would be oppo highest votes won since 1963 GE.

 

[Cestbon]

you see any GE opinion polls on voter<30 yrs old? how much of 80% or 60% of younger generations are as a percentage among the whole electorate. let say voter<30 yrs old? are uniformly 5%-8% across all constituencies. That is not enough as pap hold big leads ( 30%+ ) in almost all constituencies.

I don't share your optimism. oppositions probably need 42% nationwide votes to be sure of winning a GRC. 42% would be oppo highest votes won since 1963 GE.

If voter jump ship 10% the actual figure is 20%. Because you need to deduct the 10% for PAP and add 10% for opposition so losing one one meaning losing 2 vote margin.
Unless the voter void the vote.

 

[annexa]

No more Tanjong Pagar GRC from the looks of things. I rather MM spend some time alone for himself, finally. He deserves the respect and short rest.

 

[SneeringTree]

Any comments?


20.Aljunied GRC (5 to 4)
21.Hougang Central SMC (breakaway from Aljunied GRC)
22.Pasir Ris-Punggol GRC (6 to 5)
23.Hougang North SMC (breakaway from PRP GRC – Hougang part)
24.Old Hougang SMC (existing SMC won by WP)

I think they are unlikely to create SMCs so close to LTK's Hougang SMC and Aljunied GRC. Just imagine Sylvia Lim contesting in one of these proximate SMCs, she will have a very high chance of winning!

 

[Goh Meng Seng]

I think they are unlikely to create SMCs so close to LTK's Hougang SMC and Aljunied GRC. Just imagine Sylvia Lim contesting in one of these proximate SMCs, she will have a very high chance of winning!

Well, THAT IS THE POINT!

Comparing losing a GRC with 5 seats to losing just 1 seat to Sylvia, if you are PAP, which scenario would you prefer? It is actually a BAIT.

Goh Meng Seng

 

[SneeringTree]

Well, THAT IS THE POINT!

Comparing losing a GRC with 5 seats to losing just 1 seat to Sylvia, if you are PAP, which scenario would you prefer? It is actually a BAIT.

Goh Meng Seng

Wouldn't it be better to split some of Aljunied GRC to neighbouring GRCs? There are many GRCs from which they can carve out "safer" SMCs. Unless they have so little confidence of themselves and feel that Sylvia will be able to take down a GRC?!

 

[annexa]

I think they are unlikely to create SMCs so close to LTK's Hougang SMC and Aljunied GRC. Just imagine Sylvia Lim contesting in one of these proximate SMCs, she will have a very high chance of winning!

You over estimate the guts of sinkies.

 

[Goh Meng Seng]

Wouldn't it be better to split some of Aljunied GRC to neighbouring GRCs? There are many GRCs from which they can carve out "safer" SMCs. Unless they have so little confidence of themselves and feel that Sylvia will be able to take down a GRC?!

Dear Sneering Tree,

When you throw a bait, it must be "credible bait"... something very attractive enough for her to jump on it.

Yes, Sylvia will be able to take down a GRC. This is the ground sentiments right now.

Goh Meng Seng

 

[Maximilian Chua-Heng]

With no scientific opinion polls to gauge "ground sentiments", I am very sceptical of such gut feel of the ground.

If the ruling regime plays their cards right this time, I expect them to sweep all seats except one. And I think they will call for GE sooner than you think.

To be honest, in GE 2006, I was expecting the contest to be much closer in Aljunied GRC, say at least around 53-47. Perhaps Sylvia wasn't considered a "heavyweight" then like a JBJ. And now is she one?

Dear Sneering Tree,

When you throw a bait, it must be "credible bait"... something very attractive enough for her to jump on it.

Yes, Sylvia will be able to take down a GRC. This is the ground sentiments right now.

Goh Meng Seng

 

[Goh Meng Seng]

With no scientific opinion polls to gauge "ground sentiments", I am very sceptical of such gut feel of the ground.

If the ruling regime plays their cards right this time, I expect them to sweep all seats except one. And I think they will call for GE sooner than you think.

To be honest, in GE 2006, I was expecting the contest to be much closer in Aljunied GRC, say at least around 53-47. Perhaps Sylvia wasn't considered a "heavyweight" then like a JBJ. And now is she one?

There are "statistical means" to determine the support level which have soared.

The NCMP profile adds tremendous weight to Sylvia and I believe she is a much stronger candidate right now, after proving her worth in parliament.

Goh Meng Seng

 

[Maximilian Chua-Heng]

You guys have engaged Gallup or AC Nielsen to do the job is it?

There are "statistical means" to determine the support level which have soared.

The NCMP profile adds tremendous weight to Sylvia and I believe she is a much stronger candidate right now, after proving her worth in parliament.

Goh Meng Seng

 

[Goh Meng Seng]

You guys have engaged Gallup or AC Nielsen to do the job is it?

Well, something better than that.

Goh Meng Seng

 

[Alamaking]

GMS, what's your take on Teo Ser Luck contesting for SMC? Wanbao said he got high chances of winning wor...

 

[Goh Meng Seng]

GMS, what's your take on Teo Ser Luck contesting for SMC? Wanbao said he got high chances of winning wor...

National profile is very different from local profile, especially so in a SMC.

Teo SL has helped to win the bid for YOG. He was having photo taking sessions with all those big shots like PM Lee all over the place when Singapore won the bid.

But once there is trouble in the organizing of YOG, he is mysteriously missing from the frontline. Well, he is political savvy in that sense, to siam from negative news while taking full advantage of possible news. Vivian suffered most from the blunders of YOG while TSL gained most from the initial positivity.

In terms of national profile, he has gained much from these events. But I am not so sure about his local profile. So far, I didn't hear anything bad about him from the ground.

So it is highly possible that he will be taking up the challenge of turning his seat into SMC.

However, sometimes, national sentiments are difficult to predict. Last I heard, those in the 30s and 40s are very unhappy with the FT policy which is affecting their job prospect as well as salary level. Mind you, they are from the professional fields, not the lower strata of the population. TSL's constituency consists mainly of this group of voters.

I have the feeling that he might have miscalculated the impact of national issues on his support level.

Goh Meng Seng

 

[Alamaking]

I have the feeling that he might have miscalculated the impact of national issues on his support level.

Goh Meng Seng

I dunno whats your party strategies are in the next coming election, but if I were you, I would challenge TSL for the seat, the chances of winning him is quite high.

I personally dun see SDP will get any seats in the coming GE, those who vote for them must be crazy. I do hope Worker's party can get at least 1 GRC, while your party can get 1-2 seats is already a good achievement.

Good Luck :p

 

[Ramseth]

Any comments?

GRC
4-seats: 3 x 4 = 12 seats
5-seats: 5 x 11 = 55 seats

SMC: 17 seats

Total: 84 seats

I don't think that's possible as LHL has said increasing SMCs but capping at 12.

 

[Glaringly]

On the other hand, being super kiasu and eroding sentiments on the ground.

Will PAP carve out SMCs for high profile Ministers or even for LHL himself? My thought is, it is easier to carve out single seat super safe SMC then a 5 seats GRC.

Food for thought?

Well, THAT IS THE POINT!

Comparing losing a GRC with 5 seats to losing just 1 seat to Sylvia, if you are PAP, which scenario would you prefer? It is actually a BAIT.

Goh Meng Seng

 

[Ramseth]

On the other hand, being super kiasu and eroding sentiments on the ground.

Will PAP carve out SMCs for high profile Ministers or even for LHL himself? My thought is, it is easier to carve out single seat super safe SMC then a 5 seats GRC.

Food for thought?

With the GRC system, PM and Ministers must lead teams to contest GRCs. That's broad political base, both voters and for subordinated MPs.

Gan Kim Yong was originally from Holland-Bukit Panjang GRC in 2001 but posted to Chua Chu Kang SMC to contest Steve Chia (then NCMP) in 2006. Gan has since been promoted to MOM (apparently a reward of sorts). It's a sure shot that he's going to be posted to a GRC in the next election.