Possible electoral divisions WP will contest in 2016

[steffychun]

Steffy, I think you are the only one touting this Shadow Cabinet thing. Can't recall reading anyone else saying this?

Because that's the way for proper accountability in a parliament.

 

[Fook Seng]

Precisely, pruss own GRC in CCK, Jurong, Tampines & MParade and SMC in Pioneer, Whampoa, Mountbatten & Radin MAS dun wanna do walk about, wanna keh khiang goto other oppo ward.

Now we should all understand why some parties do not win seats. Wrong priority.

 

[steffychun]

Now we should all understand why some parties do not win seats. Wrong priority.

a 3 corner fight in Aljunied could be a reality. WP better prepare for it. PAP team may suck, 2nd Oppo may not.

 

[GoldenDragon]

Your days as sponsored opposition big wig is over. PAP is going to change tactic, so better for you to move on and find another way to make a living.

NGOs is an option.

 

[ray_of_hope]

Of course. That is why WP has never said that. They know they will sound silly if they said that.

Punggol East is a good example. Not once did WP not welcome RP and SDA into the picture.

Not just that, LTK also expressed great surprise that SDP chickened out. WP had worked on the basis of a 5 corner fight in PE. Similarly, WP expects a MCF in Aljunied at the next GE. It is not bothered by that prospect. It just continues its own work. Equally, SDP must expect to face MCF in all the constituencies it contests at the next GE. Holland-Bukit Timah should see a strong contest by a 3rd party. Everyone should get used to the fact of MCF. Certainly, PAP expects that; and so does WP.

 

[FredTan76]

U guys & gals do realize MCF plays into Sylvia's playbook, r8?

MCF will force oppo voters to vote tactically, pulling all e votes away fm e perceived weaker oppo like NSP, SDP, SPP, DPP, SDA, RP & etc to WP.
This itself will negate any MCF vote dilution effect for WP.

MCF will oso swing voters fm voting PAP as fence sitting voters fear WP may lose badly.

These 2 voting behaviour were evident in PE BE'13 & explain why LLL, who got e lowest votes in WP of just 41% during GE2011, could reverse e 11% swing against her by Palmer & swing another 11% against KPK.

In fact, if I am LTK, I will provoke & taunt fr MCF by sending rookies to all wards to get other oppo to retaliate w same recourse in e ward I covet.

 

[Fook Seng]

U guys & gals do realize MCF plays into Sylvia's playbook, r8?

MCF will force oppo voters to vote tactically, pulling all e votes away fm e perceived weaker oppo like NSP, SDP, SPP, DPP, SDA, RP & etc to WP.
This itself will negate any MCF vote dilution effect for WP.

MCF will oso swing voters fm voting PAP as fence sitting voters fear WP may lose badly.

These 2 voting behaviour were evident in PE BE'13 & explain why LLL, who got e lowest votes in WP of just 41% during GE2011, could reverse e 11% swing against her by Palmer & swing another 11% against KPK.

In fact, if I am LTK, I will provoke & taunt fr MCF by sending rookies to all wards to get other oppo to retaliate w same recourse in e ward I covet.

Don't think MCF quite have that effect. PE BE 2013 was a surprise for everybody. It was not planned. MCF does have the effect of amplifying differences in support for different parties. A relative strong party can suffer major vote loss when it encounters an even stronger party. But to totally marginalize a weaker opponent to the extent of not drawing away your own votes can only work with the weakest parties. The stronger parties have some substantial hardcore support which cannot be so easily pulled away. But I agree the size of these hard-core elements, WP's and PAP's included, are significantly smaller than what the on-line debates seem to suggest. The best strategy among opposition parties is still for the top two to three parties to avoid one another in an election. The presence of the smaller parties is irrelevant.

 

[FredTan76]

Don't think MCF quite have that effect. PE BE 2013 was a surprise for everybody. It was not planned. MCF does have the effect of amplifying differences in support for different parties. A relative strong party can suffer major vote loss when it encounters an even stronger party. But to totally marginalize a weaker opponent to the extent of not drawing away your own votes can only work with the weakest parties. The stronger parties have some substantial hardcore support which cannot be so easily pulled away. But I agree the size of these hard-core elements, WP's and PAP's included, are significantly smaller than what the on-line debates seem to suggest. The best strategy among opposition parties is still for the top two to three parties to avoid one another in an election. The presence of the smaller parties is irrelevant.

There's no top 3 party in Spore.
Just look at state / conditionNSP & SDP is in...

 

[Fook Seng]

There's no top 3 party in Spore.
Just look at state / conditionNSP & SDP is in...

A party will become irrelevant when they pull just one to two percent of the votes. But when they start getting 5 percent or more, it becomes significant. Even in the condition that both parties you mentioned are in, depending on the candidates they field in a particular ward, the pulling power is still there, no doubt with the gap multiplying effect I have mentioned in my earlier post.

 

[wwabbit]

Don't think MCF quite have that effect. PE BE 2013 was a surprise for everybody. It was not planned. MCF does have the effect of amplifying differences in support for different parties. A relative strong party can suffer major vote loss when it encounters an even stronger party. But to totally marginalize a weaker opponent to the extent of not drawing away your own votes can only work with the weakest parties. The stronger parties have some substantial hardcore support which cannot be so easily pulled away.

PE BE 2013 was not a surprise for everybody. Many people did predict a terrible spanking for RP and SDA to a tune of < 2% total votes between the two. Check the predictions thread. This same effect has been seen in many other parts of the World, leading to two-party systems being formed. MCFs will soon cease to be relevant. You way overestimate the number of people that are so hardcore that they will only vote their favorite party instead of voting tactically. There are a lot of hardcore opposition supporters in Singapore, but most of them are simply anti-PAP instead of supporting any one particular party in a hardcore manner.

RP and SDA's entry into the BE, as well as SDP's ill-advised announcement to compete and subsequent withdrawal could only have benefit WP in the expense of all the other opposition parties. It cements the nation's thinking that WP is in a one horse race to be the leading opposition party, and that we are continuing in our journey to become a two-party system. The only way it could have gone better for WP is if SDP had stayed to compete and get spanked as well.

 

[tanwahp]

A party will become irrelevant when they pull just one to two percent of the votes. But when they start getting 5 percent or more, it becomes significant. Even in the condition that both parties you mentioned are in, depending on the candidates they field in a particular ward, the pulling power is still there, no doubt with the gap multiplying effect I have mentioned in my earlier post.

Provided that they are prepared to write off their deposits as part of the election expenses which will become norm for the third parties.

A phenomenon that will happen is that those with deeper pockets have the choice of not running under WP.

 

[ray_of_hope]

Provided that they are prepared to write off their deposits as part of the election expenses which will become norm for the third parties.

A phenomenon that will happen is that those with deeper pockets have the choice of not running under WP.

A lot of people do not know that election deposits only form one part of overall election expenses. In GE2011 Desmond Lim spent the highest on his overall election expenses per-head of candidate quite apart from the loss of his election deposit. His election expenses were $64k, and plus his $16k deposit, his overall loss was $80k. It is thus not surprising that at the BE he did away with expensive rallies altogether. For a low-key campaign a candidate may have to fork out $15k-20k apart from the election deposit.

http://www.ge.sg/stories/elections2/view/1081941/1/SDA-man-has-highest-GE-expenses-so-far