Globalist Analysis > Global Society
Population Aging: A Human Triumph
By Joseph Chamie | Monday, July 12, 2010
Population aging is an impressive achievement that has greatly improved the quality and length of human life. However, it will require sometimes-painful social and economic adjustments to the expected future demographic realities, as Joseph Chamie, former director of the UN Population Division, explains.
opulation aging is a triumph of civilization. It is the inevitable consequence of attaining desired smaller family sizes, lower mortality rates and longer lives, with many living beyond 100 years.
This achievement, however, requires vital social and economic adjustments to expected future demographic realities. In particular, population aging raises critical issues for countries, states and cities in areas such as economic growth, employment and retirement, pensions, health care and social support services.
Population aging raises serious questions about the financial viability of pension and healthcare systems for the elderly.
As a population ages, the proportion of elderly (those 65 years or older) increases, and that of children (those under age 15) decreases. For much of the past, children outnumbered the elderly by a factor of more than six to one.
Today, the ratio has declined to about three children per one older person. And within the next few decades, perhaps by 2060, the world’s elderly population will begin to exceed the population of children, when each group is expected to account for slightly less than one-fifth of the world population.
Developed countries have already moved well along this transition. In many developed countries, such as Germany, Greece, Italy, Japan, Spain and the Ukraine, the elderly already outnumber children.
A notable exception is the comparatively young U.S. population, where the number of children is 50% greater than those aged 65 and older. By mid-century, projections for the European countries as a group point to nearly twice as many elderly as children, with nations such as Germany, Italy and Spain having about one-third of their populations aged 65 years or older.
Developing countries are now going through a similar aging process, but at a much faster pace. For example, whereas France took 114 years for its elderly population to increase from 7% to 14%, many developing countries that have experienced rapid fertility and mortality declines (such as Brazil, China, Indonesia, Iran and Tunisia) are passing through this transition in a span of 25 years or less.
As a consequence of such rapid changes, accommodating the necessary social and economic adjustments to older population age structures will likely be even more difficult for developing countries.
How to prevent the coming of a “red ink society” is a major economic and political challenge for governments.
The wide-ranging consequences of population aging are of mounting concern and significance for more developed countries — and are also increasingly a worry for less developed countries. The prospects of population aging are pressing governments at all levels to reconsider many of their existing economic and social policies, programs and benefits.
In particular, population aging raises serious questions about the financial viability of pension and healthcare systems for the elderly. With the number of workers declining relative to those in the retirement ages, as well as the rapidly growing numbers of longer-living retirees, many anticipate the arrival of a “red ink society.”
Today’s budgets for social security, pensions and health care are in the black largely as a result of the favorable age structures of the past, i.e., many workers and relatively few retirees.
However, with changing demographics — in particular, smaller numbers of workers per retiree and increasing longevity — many fear that red ink is coming in the very near future. How to prevent the coming of a “red ink society” is a major economic and political challenge for governments. .....
Population Aging: A Human Triumph
By Joseph Chamie | Monday, July 12, 2010
Population aging is an impressive achievement that has greatly improved the quality and length of human life. However, it will require sometimes-painful social and economic adjustments to the expected future demographic realities, as Joseph Chamie, former director of the UN Population Division, explains.
opulation aging is a triumph of civilization. It is the inevitable consequence of attaining desired smaller family sizes, lower mortality rates and longer lives, with many living beyond 100 years.
This achievement, however, requires vital social and economic adjustments to expected future demographic realities. In particular, population aging raises critical issues for countries, states and cities in areas such as economic growth, employment and retirement, pensions, health care and social support services.
Population aging raises serious questions about the financial viability of pension and healthcare systems for the elderly.
As a population ages, the proportion of elderly (those 65 years or older) increases, and that of children (those under age 15) decreases. For much of the past, children outnumbered the elderly by a factor of more than six to one.
Today, the ratio has declined to about three children per one older person. And within the next few decades, perhaps by 2060, the world’s elderly population will begin to exceed the population of children, when each group is expected to account for slightly less than one-fifth of the world population.
Developed countries have already moved well along this transition. In many developed countries, such as Germany, Greece, Italy, Japan, Spain and the Ukraine, the elderly already outnumber children.
A notable exception is the comparatively young U.S. population, where the number of children is 50% greater than those aged 65 and older. By mid-century, projections for the European countries as a group point to nearly twice as many elderly as children, with nations such as Germany, Italy and Spain having about one-third of their populations aged 65 years or older.
Developing countries are now going through a similar aging process, but at a much faster pace. For example, whereas France took 114 years for its elderly population to increase from 7% to 14%, many developing countries that have experienced rapid fertility and mortality declines (such as Brazil, China, Indonesia, Iran and Tunisia) are passing through this transition in a span of 25 years or less.
As a consequence of such rapid changes, accommodating the necessary social and economic adjustments to older population age structures will likely be even more difficult for developing countries.
How to prevent the coming of a “red ink society” is a major economic and political challenge for governments.
The wide-ranging consequences of population aging are of mounting concern and significance for more developed countries — and are also increasingly a worry for less developed countries. The prospects of population aging are pressing governments at all levels to reconsider many of their existing economic and social policies, programs and benefits.
In particular, population aging raises serious questions about the financial viability of pension and healthcare systems for the elderly. With the number of workers declining relative to those in the retirement ages, as well as the rapidly growing numbers of longer-living retirees, many anticipate the arrival of a “red ink society.”
Today’s budgets for social security, pensions and health care are in the black largely as a result of the favorable age structures of the past, i.e., many workers and relatively few retirees.
However, with changing demographics — in particular, smaller numbers of workers per retiree and increasing longevity — many fear that red ink is coming in the very near future. How to prevent the coming of a “red ink society” is a major economic and political challenge for governments. .....
