Political Implications of 6.9 Protests

[Goh Meng Seng]

<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-0Koydzxn25U/UYJiU3y4LOI/AAAAAAAAAk8/bPdxSM-E5bw/s1600/20130501_165410.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-0Koydzxn25U/UYJiU3y4LOI/AAAAAAAAAk8/bPdxSM-E5bw/s320/20130501_165410.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
<span style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: #37404e; display: inline !important; float: none; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.800000190734863px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; orphans: auto; text-align: left; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;">Many people have overlooked one very important fact of these two protests in Hong Lim Park... Even without any opposition party acting as organizer, it can draw a sizable crowd. Particularly, Workers Party is no where to be found but yet, thousands and thousands of people attended these protests.<span class="Apple-converted-space">&nbsp;</span></span><br />
<br style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: #37404e; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.800000190734863px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; orphans: auto; text-align: left; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;" />
<span style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: #37404e; display: inline !important; float: none; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.800000190734863px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; orphans: auto; text-align: left; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;">What does this mean? It means that the anger on the ground is REAL and opposition party branding its</span><span class="text_exposed_show" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: #37404e; display: inline; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.800000190734863px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; orphans: auto; text-align: left; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;">elf, doesn't effect such anger. It was PAP's own doing that has caused such dissatisfaction and anger on the ground. It also means a dangerous signal... next time round, not only WP will win seats into parliament, as long as there isn't any multi-corner fights because this anger, when translated into protest votes, will be independent of opposition parties which stood against PAP. Singaporeans are just angry with PAP and will have only one singular aim... to teach PAP a good lesson and vote PAP out of parliament, irregardless who they send as candidates.<span class="Apple-converted-space">&nbsp;</span><br /><br />This is the hypothesis I held for the Punggol East By-Elections. WP won in a 4 corner fight with such big swing, dumping the other two opposition parties so badly, basically because of this anger. Voters are voting strategically, they just want PAP to lose and WP in their view, has more chance of winning over PAP. Thus, all votes swing tactically to WP.<span class="Apple-converted-space">&nbsp;</span><br /><br />The danger is looming for PAP if it continues to brush aside such signs....</span><br />
<br />
<span class="text_exposed_show" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: #37404e; display: inline; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.800000190734863px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; orphans: auto; text-align: left; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;">Goh Meng Seng </span>

 

[SgParent]

...........

Excuse me, are you saying something new, original?

 

[kongsimi]

Oi! There could be WP supporters turning up for the meeting!!

What no WP presence? Why do you always want to pick on WP?

 

[SgParent]

........Why do you always want to pick on WP?

He was rejected by WP.

 

[scroobal]

GMS

The thrust of your post has nothing to do with the protest but had to do all with WP. Your exercise in attempted extrapolation is also quite ridiculous.

The reason the other 2 opposition candidates got thashed was that both WP and Li Lian was able to show that they both did a lot of work and deserved that chance. The other 2 clowns could not even zip up their pants without stumbling.

It as you assert that the people were fedup with the PAP and they were voting blindly anyone from opposition, then the opposition votes won't be skewed to Li Lian to such an extent.

 

[squeaky]

[video=youtube;URxhp8Fuc9A]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=URxhp8Fuc9A[/video]

 

[squeaky]

Isn't it a shame to call themselves to be fighting for a Singaporean Singapore but yet recite the Singapore Pledge wrongly?[video=youtube;URxhp8Fuc9A]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=URxhp8Fuc9A[/video]

 

[Goh Meng Seng]

There is nothing of that sort.

It is just explaining a phenomenon of myths and beliefs based on wrong perception.

LLL and WP have actually admitted that they have not done much ground work in Punggol East since last GE. It is basically a contest of possibility of winning based solely on party branding and nothing else... not even about comparing between candidates.

You must put causation in front and not mixed up with results. The cause is huge backlash, unhappiness and anger. The means is to vote PAP out at all cost. The result is, vote WP which has better branding and gave better hope of winning. Nothing to do with groundwork (all zero groundwork) nor candidates' quality (LLL has in fact the most unimpressive paper qualification) or capabilities. Plain politicking by the voters' part to choose tactical voting, after learning the lessons from Presidential Elections.

And the fact is, with or without Workers Party, the anger within will continue to push people out into open protests and defiance. This is definitely demonstrated clearly by the two 6.9 protests. Some skeptics would think that for the first protest, it was just a "knee jerk" reaction from Singaporeans and all of that just temporary burst of emotions. That is why there was a great turnout. But the similar overwhelming turnout for the second protest on May Day has debunked such speculations and confirmed that it is PURE LONG LASTING ANGER, not just some mere knee jerk reactions. And mind you, this has nothing to do with WP but solely a show of anger against PAP government.

Goh Meng Seng

GMS

The thrust of your post has nothing to do with the protest but had to do all with WP. Your exercise in attempted extrapolation is also quite ridiculous.

The reason the other 2 opposition candidates got thashed was that both WP and Li Lian was able to show that they both did a lot of work and deserved that chance. The other 2 clowns could not even zip up their pants without stumbling.

It as you assert that the people were fedup with the PAP and they were voting blindly anyone from opposition, then the opposition votes won't be skewed to Li Lian to such an extent.

 

[Thick Face Black Heart]

LLL and WP have actually admitted that they have not done much ground work in Punggol East since last GE. It is basically a contest of possibility of winning based solely on party branding and nothing else... not even about comparing between candidates.

You must put causation in front and not mixed up with results. The cause is huge backlash, unhappiness and anger. The means is to vote PAP out at all cost. The result is, vote WP which has better branding and gave better hope of winning. Nothing to do with groundwork (all zero groundwork) nor candidates' quality (LLL has in fact the most unimpressive paper qualification) or capabilities. Plain politicking by the voters' part to choose tactical voting, after learning the lessons from Presidential Elections.

Can you name me one other opposition party that has done extensive ground in Punggol East after the GE2011?

The vote swing to WP is caused by anger at PAP's policies, as well as party branding of WP. Tactical voting did not have much to do with it. The other two parties were obvious nut cases with little credibility. If you wanted to have an opposition running your ward, you won't trust your neighbourhood into the likes of RP and SDA.

LLL came in because she had a fresh personality, voter appeal, which overcame her other deficiencies. In fact, she has a university degree. So what are you talking about by lack of qualifications? LLL has also volunteered in WP since 2006 and stood in 2011. She has the experience, so definitely no lack of ability to connect or do groundwork.

It is a given that political parties should not be too prominent at the event, lest some people think that the parties are trying to gate-crash and turn it into a partisan performance. I would expect every party to keep a low profile, and that is precisely what each party did. Nothing wrong here, with WP or anyone.

 

[tanwahp]

You must put causation in front and not mixed up with results. The cause is huge backlash, unhappiness and anger. The means is to vote PAP out at all cost. The result is, vote WP which has better branding and gave better hope of winning.

What you're saying here translates as, if Desmond or KJ were to run against KPK one on one, he will get 54% of the votes by himself.

But I don't think this would have been so. Either one of them might surpass 40%, but not win.

 

[Goh Meng Seng]

There is no IF in political contests... we could speculate or analyze but nobody will know the exact outcome until it was put forward as so.

But yes, in my view, that would be more or less the outcome due to the massive anger shown so far.

Goh Meng Seng

What you're saying here translates as, if Desmond or KJ were to run against KPK one on one, he will get 54% of the votes by himself.

But I don't think this would have been so. Either one of them might surpass 40%, but not win.

 

[Goh Meng Seng]

You have agreed with me that nobody has done groundwork but yet missed the point totally. But I should say, at least KJ has raised the issue of the upgrading way before by-elections, unlike WP or LLL. For that, you have to give him the credits.

Read carefully on what I wrote. I didn't say LLL doesn't have a degree but simply, comparatively, not impressive... well, not as impressive as KJ. If you want to talk about experience, nobody beats Desmond lah!

I don't even mention it is wrong for WP not to involve in the protest... oh dear, guilty conscience or what? LOLx!

I am simply pointing out the fact that it would be a wrong perception that only WP could attract crowds or Singaporeans. Even without their presence, 6.9 Protests could well attract the brave show of support as in PROTEST. It definitely has nothing to do with any partisan political parties, least WP. This concludes that the anger voters have are independent of WP and this is what created the result of Punggol East by-elections as well as potentially, future elections. It would also mean that other opposition parties may also ride on this tide of anger to get elected into parliament in future elections.

Goh Meng Seng

Can you name me one other opposition party that has done extensive ground in Punggol East after the GE2011?

The vote swing to WP is caused by anger at PAP's policies, as well as party branding of WP. Tactical voting did not have much to do with it. The other two parties were obvious nut cases with little credibility. If you wanted to have an opposition running your ward, you won't trust your neighbourhood into the likes of RP and SDA.

LLL came in because she had a fresh personality, voter appeal, which overcame her other deficiencies. In fact, she has a university degree. So what are you talking about by lack of qualifications? LLL has also volunteered in WP since 2006 and stood in 2011. She has the experience, so definitely no lack of ability to connect or do groundwork.

It is a given that political parties should not be too prominent at the event, lest some people think that the parties are trying to gate-crash and turn it into a partisan performance. I would expect every party to keep a low profile, and that is precisely what each party did. Nothing wrong here, with WP or anyone.

 

[wwabbit]

If people only vote opposition because the don't like the PAP, and the identity of the opposition party means nothing, then please explain this:

Singapore General Elections 2011, percentage of valid votes won:

Worker's Party - 46.58%
Singapore People's Party - 41.42%
National Solidarity Party - 39.25%
Singapore Democratic Party - 36.76%
Reform Party - 31.78%
Singapore Democratic Alliance - 30.06%

 

[Goh Meng Seng]

A by-election is totally different from a GE, for voters' psychology... Anyway, never mind about that. If you are stuck with 2011 data, then WP won't even win Punggol East byelection.

Goh Meng Seng

If people only vote opposition because the don't like the PAP, and the identity of the opposition party means nothing, then please explain this:

Singapore General Elections 2011, percentage of valid votes won:

Worker's Party - 46.58%
Singapore People's Party - 41.42%
National Solidarity Party - 39.25%
Singapore Democratic Party - 36.76%
Reform Party - 31.78%
Singapore Democratic Alliance - 30.06%

 

[Thick Face Black Heart]

But I should say, at least KJ has raised the issue of the upgrading way before by-elections, unlike WP or LLL. For that, you have to give him the credits.

I don't even mention it is wrong for WP not to involve in the protest... oh dear, guilty conscience or what? LOLx!

I am simply pointing out the fact that it would be a wrong perception that only WP could attract crowds or Singaporeans. Even without their presence, 6.9 Protests could well attract the brave show of support as in PROTEST. It definitely has nothing to do with any partisan political parties, least WP. This concludes that the anger voters have are independent of WP and this is what created the result of Punggol East by-elections as well as potentially, future elections. It would also mean that other opposition parties may also ride on this tide of anger to get elected into parliament in future elections.

Goh Meng Seng

(A) KJ raised upgrading but no follow through. Even TKL followed through on his minibond rallies by initiating some legal avenues to exploit, despite the fact that they fell flat eventually.

(B) I should have been clearer. Qualifications mean jack shit to me. I suspect that for the younger cohort of voters at PE, qualifications also means less and less. Its more to do with how well the candidate presents him/herself, and the ability of the party to ensure the local constituency needs will be taken care of. Key word is ability to inspire confidence.

(C) If your claim is that other parties can ride the national anger, then I dare say WP is best positioned to ride it successfully. As long as WP keeps it up, come election time people will naturally see WP as the premier choice vehicle to go against PAP.

 

[Sinkie]

All this myopic, idiotic debate and blind party affiliation cocksuckings can never pull any wool over this undeniable FACT that I will espouse below.

Between choosing Dr Koh and LLL, the heartlander decision is 110% clear and simple. No heartlander would pick LLL unless it is a protest vote against the party that Dr Koh represents. Only an abject idiot would vote for LLL. She is not even pretty, hard-working or smart. So, Goh Meng Seng in this instance is right, BUT then again, this revelation does not originate from him nor does it require rocket science for any impartial, politically removed person to realize this undeniable FACT.

 

[aurvandil]

The title of the post is about the political implications of the two protests.

I will admit that I had half expected the 2nd protest to bomb. I was plesantly surprised by the turnout.

In interpreting events, it is best not to extrapolate too far from the emppirical data. This is my take.

The PAP was expecting things to blow over and people to forget. The fact that so many showed up suggest that this issue is not blowing over. It now emerges that it might become a tangible election issue come 2016, overshadowing housing and transport.

The second implication which is even more alarming to the PAP is the level of awareness and understanding of the policy issues. The long winded protest placards reflect an attempt by protestors to share this knowledge with as many people as possible. The protest shows that the crafted propaganda message is failing to take root, crowded out instead by the anti-FT messages which appear to be growing in strength and substance.

There is now talk of a possible third rally, this time on National Day. If this does indeed occur and we get a decent turnout, it willl be a key political milestone. This protest will even be more potent if it occurs with a backdrop where BN have just been voted out of office.

 

[metalmickey]

The PAP was expecting things to blow over and people to forget. The fact that so many showed up suggest that this issue is not blowing over. It now emerges that it might become a tangible election issue come 2016, overshadowing housing and transport.

In no small part the 6.9 million population issue are housing and transport issues.

Anyway there is nothing really wrong with what Goh Meng Seng is saying. The anti-PAP sentiment goes beyond support for opposition parties. There is a new player in the game, the extra-political, NGO-based faction. This goes beyond getting people into parliament, who's in whose party, etc.

Previously the SDP were perceived as being "Singaporeans don't do this. Singaporeans just don't protest. This Tak Boleh Tahan has nothing to do with our 'local culture' ". Things have changed rapidly since then. The thing about being too far ahead for your time is that eventually people are going to catch up with you.

 

[3_M]

<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-0Koydzxn25U/UYJiU3y4LOI/AAAAAAAAAk8/bPdxSM-E5bw/s1600/20130501_165410.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-0Koydzxn25U/UYJiU3y4LOI/AAAAAAAAAk8/bPdxSM-E5bw/s320/20130501_165410.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
<span style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: #37404e; display: inline !important; float: none; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.800000190734863px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; orphans: auto; text-align: left; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;">Many people have overlooked one very important fact of these two protests in Hong Lim Park... Even without any opposition party acting as organizer, it can draw a sizable crowd. Particularly, Workers Party is no where to be found but yet, thousands and thousands of people attended these protests.<span class="Apple-converted-space">&nbsp;</span></span><br />
<br style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: #37404e; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.800000190734863px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; orphans: auto; text-align: left; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;" />
<span style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: #37404e; display: inline !important; float: none; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.800000190734863px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; orphans: auto; text-align: left; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;">What does this mean? It means that the anger on the ground is REAL and opposition party branding its</span><span class="text_exposed_show" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: #37404e; display: inline; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.800000190734863px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; orphans: auto; text-align: left; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;">elf, doesn't effect such anger. It was PAP's own doing that has caused such dissatisfaction and anger on the ground. It also means a dangerous signal... next time round, not only WP will win seats into parliament, as long as there isn't any multi-corner fights because this anger, when translated into protest votes, will be independent of opposition parties which stood against PAP. Singaporeans are just angry with PAP and will have only one singular aim... to teach PAP a good lesson and vote PAP out of parliament, irregardless who they send as candidates.<span class="Apple-converted-space">&nbsp;</span><br /><br />This is the hypothesis I held for the Punggol East By-Elections. WP won in a 4 corner fight with such big swing, dumping the other two opposition parties so badly, basically because of this anger. Voters are voting strategically, they just want PAP to lose and WP in their view, has more chance of winning over PAP. Thus, all votes swing tactically to WP.<span class="Apple-converted-space">&nbsp;</span><br /><br />The danger is looming for PAP if it continues to brush aside such signs....</span><br />
<br />
<span class="text_exposed_show" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: #37404e; display: inline; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.800000190734863px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; orphans: auto; text-align: left; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;">Goh Meng Seng </span>

Problem is other than WP, I don't see what branding other opposition parties have.

SDP antics during the pre-PEBE left much to be desired. There were people who claimed they redeemed themselves by pulling out on the eleventh hour, I beg to differ. They only redeem themselves in the eyes of opposition voters who will vote for them in a 2CF setting regardless. To the middleground, it point lost.

NSP resembles more of a ragtag army running around like a headless chicken.

PE situation was unique. It a BE and people are willing to take risk. Anyway it only 3 years before the next GE and if LLL doesn;t perform, they can always switch back to PAP. Unless opposition themselves have something worthwhile to offer in the next GE, I wouldn't bank too much on this ground anger to carry us forward.

 

[@rmadill0]

<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-0Koydzxn25U/UYJiU3y4LOI/AAAAAAAAAk8/bPdxSM-E5bw/s1600/20130501_165410.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-0Koydzxn25U/UYJiU3y4LOI/AAAAAAAAAk8/bPdxSM-E5bw/s320/20130501_165410.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
<span style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: #37404e; display: inline !important; float: none; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.800000190734863px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; orphans: auto; text-align: left; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;">Many people have overlooked one very important fact of these two protests in Hong Lim Park... Even without any opposition party acting as organizer, it can draw a sizable crowd. Particularly, Workers Party is no where to be found but yet, thousands and thousands of people attended these protests.<span class="Apple-converted-space">*</span></span><br />
<span class="text_exposed_show" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: #37404e; display: inline; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.800000190734863px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; orphans: auto; text-align: left; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;">Goh Meng Seng </span>

Without a political party as organiser does not mean that no political party is involved. I do see one working in the background though.