People in their 30s, 40s will face famine in 30 years.

[FlipSide]

Much of planet could see extreme drought in 30 years: study
AFP - 1 hour 19 minutes ago.

People in their 30s, 40s will face famine in 30 years.,if rising sea or violent nature due to global warming, dont kill them earlier.!

WASHINGTON (AFP) - – Large swathes of the planet could experience extreme drought within the next 30 years unless greenhouse gas emissions are cut, according to a study released Tuesday.

"We are facing the possibility of widespread drought in the coming decades, but this has yet to be fully recognized by both the public and the climate change research community," said National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) scientist Aiguo Dai, who conducted the study.

"If the projections in this study come even close to being realized, the consequences for society worldwide will be enormous," he said.

Parts of Asia, the United States, and southern Europe, and much of Africa, Latin America and the Middle East could be hit by severe drought in the next few decades, with regions bordering the Mediterranean Sea seeing "almost unprecedented" drought conditions, the study says.

"Severe drought conditions can profoundly impact agriculture, water resources, tourism, ecosystems, and basic human welfare," says the study, published in Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change.

In the United States, drought causes six to eight billion dollars in damages a year on average, and drought-related disasters killed more than half a million people in Africa in the 1980s, the study says.

While vast areas of the world will become extremely dry for long periods, higher-latitude regions from northern Europe to Russia, Canada, Alaska and India could become wetter.

Increased moisture in those regions would not, however, make up for the drier conditions across much of the rest of the world.

"The increased wetness over the northern, sparsely populated high latitudes can't match the drying over the more densely populated temperate and tropical areas," Dai said.

Dai used results from 22 computer models used by the Nobel Prize-winning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), to make projections about temperature, precipitation, humidity and other climate factors based on current projections of greenhouse gas emissions.

Maps of the world that Dai produced using the data show "severe drought by the 2060s over most of Africa, southern Europe and the Middle East, most of Americas (except Alaska and northern Canada, Uruguay, and northeastern Argentina), Australia, and Southeast Asia," the study says.

The maps also show that most of central and northern Eurasia, Alaska and northern Canada, and India would become wetter over the same period.

The study's predictions are based on current projections of what greenhouse gas emissions will be this century.

What actually happens in the next few decades will depend on several factors, including the actual future level of greenhouse gas emissions and natural climate cycles such as El Nino, which often reduces precipitation over low-latitude land areas.

The study follows on from earlier research, including by Dai and the IPCC, that found that global warming will probably alter precipitation patterns as the subtropics expand.

 

[longbow]

Precisely - that is why China by controlling Tibet, controls all the major rivers flowing from China into India, Bangla, etc etc.

Even Mekong originates from Tibet. So in 20 years countries are going to have to look up to China to release more water from the rivers.

At current projection and growth, the Chinese will reach superpower status in 10 to 20 years and they will not cede water rights easily.

 

[ivebert]

At current projection and growth, the Chinese will reach superpower status in 10 to 20 years and they will not cede water rights easily.

What is the projections you are talking about? Straight out of your whore mum's cheebye? :oIo:

Superpower status is not granted because of economic status :oIo:
Dumb fuck :oIo:

 

[exSINgaporean]

Precisely - that is why China by controlling Tibet, controls all the major rivers flowing from China into India, Bangla, etc etc.

Even Mekong originates from Tibet. So in 20 years countries are going to have to look up to China to release more water from the rivers.

At current projection and growth, the Chinese will reach superpower status in 10 to 20 years and they will not cede water rights easily.

Good observation.

China makes a smart move. I read an article some 15 years ago predicting that the new wars will not be fought on terrorism but over WATER.

If you control water and oil, you control the world. And in Canada, we have 20% of the world fresh supply with only 3% of the world population and Alberta oil sand alone is 3 times the Saudi Arabia reserve....current value at US at least $40 and can be as mch as $80 Trillion! Yea, that's trillion and not billion.

I listen on radio about a social scientist report, that within 30 years, Canada will be the number one country in the world bec. it supplies the raw materials like oil, gas, uranium and off course wheat (the Paries is the wheat baseket of the world) and beef. Also Potash in Saskachewan is the largest fertilizer company in the world.

We could be debt free by then. After all, Alberta is already debt-free some 6 years ago.

I have been telling my son that he does not need to go anywhere in the world as Alberta has it all. Now he 14 years old. Last week I took him to the technical institute open house and I lead him to see all the technical courses leading to dimploma. I told him the Instrumentaion Engineering diploma is the best everywhere requires instrumentation technician.....oil and gas refinaries, chemical plan and even aircraft. The starting pay is about Can$60,000 per year without overtime.

Once he gets his jouneyman and he works another 30 hours of overtime plus holidays he can easily earn over Can$150,000 per year....i.e about Sin$180,000. I know many technicians' yearly income in the oil field are $250,000! That would give him a very comfortable living.

Many of them just wear jeans and drive trucks....hardly I seen any of my technician clients drive a BMW or Mercedez......a 4X4 truck costs 50% more than a mid-range Merz!

I have technician clients who own speed boats (my son and I even went fishing with them), receation vechicles (already cost more than a Merz) and go dear hunting.

That's why when summer comes, you can see lots of receation vechicles on the highway and come winter, lost to them can afford to fly to Hawaii the whole month for the warm sun.

 

[saratogas]

That's why it's important to enjoy life Now...
Buy what you want! Eat what you like...

 

[GoFlyKiteNow]

Precisely - that is why China by controlling Tibet, controls all the major rivers flowing from China into India, Bangla, etc etc.

Even Mekong originates from Tibet. So in 20 years countries are going to have to look up to China to release more water from the rivers.

At current projection and growth, the Chinese will reach superpower status in 10 to 20 years and they will not cede water rights easily.

You got it all wrong.

The effects of global warming, climate change do not respect political,
geographic boundaries or any super power status. It can happen to any
region where nature sets its natural forces. It can be an entire continent.

Recently large parts of Russia suffered extreme drought. The area is the
traditional wheat growing plains of Russia for centuries. Almost the size
of Europe. Temperatures went up to 48 deg C and fires broke out across
the agricultural lands and lasted over two months while millions of tons
of crop burned into ash. The price of wheat shot up in the world market due
to this as Russia is a huge grain exporter.

BTW: China is a net importer of food crop items. Wheat, corn, maize etc.
Right now USA agricultural sector is experiencing a massive boom in revenue
as China, India, Asia farm imports from USA are at record high.

Nothing to do with rivers. what is the use of rivers if there is famine and no
rain fall to fill the rivers ?

 

[GoFlyKiteNow]

AGRICULTURE IN CHINA
Only about 15 percent of the land in China is good for agriculture

Only about 15 percent of the land in China is good for agriculture (compared to, 50 percent in India, 20 percent in the United States, and 32 percent in France), and with this land the Chinese feed almost a forth of the world's population.


Land is heavily utilized for agriculture. Vegetables are planted on road embankments, in traffic triangles and right up the walls of many buildings. Even so since 1949 China has lost one fifth of its arable land.

China is the world’s biggest consumer of meat and grain. China also uses more fertilizer that any other country.

About 35 percent of China's labor force is in agriculture (compared to 2.5 percent in the U.S.). There are 425 million agricultural workers in China. A little over a decade ago China was home to 700 million farmers. They make up about 60 percent of the population.

China had its forth consecutive year of bumper harvests in 2009 with a grain output at a record 528.2 million tons. The harvest was about 510 million tons in 2007. Grain production dropped from 512 million tons in 1998 to 430 million tons in 2003 and increased to 470 million tons in 2004 and 484 million tons in 2005 thanks to favorable weather and incentive to farmers. In 1993 China produced 440 million tons of wheat, rice and other grains.

The soil in China is rapidly deteriorating in quality, eroding or turning to desert. Chemical fertilizers have let its farmers defer their problems while extracting higher yields.

Agricultural Regions in China

Most of China is unproductive agriculturally. Arable land is concentrated in a band of river valleys and along the southern and eastern coasts.

Wheat, corn, soybeans, barley, kaoliang (sorghum), millet are grown in the north and central China. Rice is the dominate crop in the south. Some places produce double crops of rice. Most crops for export are grown in the coastal areas. These areas have relatively good roads and access to ports used for exporting produce.

The Northern Plain, which includes Beijing, is home to 65 percent of China’s agriculture but only 24 percent of it water. It produces half of China’s wheat and corn. It suffered from lower water table caused by too much pumping of water.

The Yangtze River delta is another important agricultural area. It is home to 30 million people and fertile soils produce a tenth of the country's crops. The crop yields there are expected to decline as large scale industries expand from nearby Shanghai and occupy productive agricultural land.

 

[longbow]

Firstly water for major rivers starting from Tibet comes from glacial melt. The glaciers are an accumulation of thousands of years of snow fall. So global warming will increase glacial melt but I think there is enough ice to last quite at least the next 50 years. While it is important to find alternative sources, as drought condition persist, China will divert more of this water to their own use. It is the countries below like India and bangla that will suffer.

Do you know that even though China has, as you pointed out, 15% of agriculture land, its agricultural output is greater then that of India? And they are now talking about leasing tens of thousands of acres in neighboring countries to grow food. The reason is because of more productive use of land. yes that comes with issues with fertilizer, pesticide run off but that is the case in all commercial farming.

So strategically they have the upper hand. Given their soon to be superpower status in 20 years (you need economic prowess before you can afford the military toys), the neighbor to the south will feel hot and thirsty.

Finally, famine will be for the countries that do not have the reserves or economic might buy the commodities. That is why you seldom hear of famine in China. Beijing has more than enough $$$ to send the basic staples to the communities hit by drough. In fact, Beijing is funnelling tax revenues gained from booming coastal states to the inners parts of the countries, especially the farming comminities to reduce the wealth imbalance.

 

[longbow]

GFK - here is article about China vs India Agricultre production. Remember that China is more of a mfg base while India has remained an agriculture focused economy.

"According to the Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO), the average yield of rice in India between 2003 and 2005 was 3,034 kilograms per hectare. In contrast, the comparative figure for China was more than double at 6,233 kg/ha. For wheat the corresponding figures were 2,688 kg/ha for India compared to 4,155 kg/ha for China, while for rape and mustard India averaged 909 kg/ha to China’s 1,778 kg/ha.

The data on the trend rise in yields in the 15 years leading up to 2005 are also telling. For rice the trend rise over this period in India was only 1 per cent, less than half of China’s 2.1 per cent. According to statistics from the International Rice Research Institute, India produced 124 million tonnes of rice compared to China’s 186 million tonnes in 2004, despite having almost double the area under paddy cultivation (42 million hectares vs. 28 million hectares)."



Agriculture: where India and China stand


Pallavi Aiyar


How did China manage to outstrip India in agriculture when the two countries ere more or less on a par on most parameters 25 years ago?




It is increasingly common in India to cast a covetous eye over the Himalayas towards China’s glittering cityscapes with their multi-lane highways and soaring skylines. Thus Mumbai aspires to be the Indian Shanghai while New Delhi hopes the Commonwealth Games can spell the kind of benefits for its fortunes akin to those brought by the Olympics to Beijing.

However, the wakeup call that China represents to India is far from limited to its showpiece urban centres. Even more pertinent from an Indian point of view is a comparison of the agricultural sectors of the two neighbouring countries.

Both have traditionally been agrarian economies and well over half of their billion-plus people continue to depend on land for their livelihood. Given their large populations and histories of famine, India and China also share similar concerns on issues such as food security.

However, while India’s agricultural sector is projected to grow by about 2.5 per cent this year (a slide from the 2.7 per cent growth in 2006), China’s has been steadily growing at between 4 and 5 per cent over the last 15 years. By 2005, China had in fact emerged as the world’s third largest food donor.

The two widest agriculture-related discrepancies between India and China lie in the diverging productivity levels of various crops and in the differential mix of crop and non-crop segments in the overall composition of the farm sector.

According to the Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO), the average yield of rice in India between 2003 and 2005 was 3,034 kilograms per hectare. In contrast, the comparative figure for China was more than double at 6,233 kg/ha. For wheat the corresponding figures were 2,688 kg/ha for India compared to 4,155 kg/ha for China, while for rape and mustard India averaged 909 kg/ha to China’s 1,778 kg/ha.

The data on the trend rise in yields in the 15 years leading up to 2005 are also telling. For rice the trend rise over this period in India was only 1 per cent, less than half of China’s 2.1 per cent. According to statistics from the International Rice Research Institute, India produced 124 million tonnes of rice compared to China’s 186 million tonnes in 2004, despite having almost double the area under paddy cultivation (42 million hectares vs. 28 million hectares).

Regarding rape and mustard, the trend rise in China marked an even larger stride — 3 per cent compared to the India’s mincing step forward of 0.6 per cent. Other crops such as wheat and groundnut reveal similar trends, with China well in the lead.

The widest divergence between India and China, however, is in the profitable horticultural sector with the production of fruits and vegetables in China leaping up from 60 million tonnes in 1980, roughly comparable to India’s 55 million tonnes at the time, to 450 million tonnes in 2003, way ahead of India’s corresponding 135 million tonnes.

China’s added advantage lies in the more diversified composition of its agricultural sector, with animal husbandry and fisheries accounting for close to 45 per cent of the total in 2005, compared to less than 30 per cent in India. China has thus clearly developed a more diversified set of instruments than its southern neighbour for increasing net farm incomes.

The key question that arises is why and how China has managed to outstrip India in agriculture when 25 years ago, the two countries were more or less on a par on most parameters. The latest report by the Economic Advisory Council to India’s Prime Minister, “Economic Outlook for 2007-08” has a special section on agriculture and points out that the traditional excuses for India’s substandard performance in the farm sector are not only tired but inadequate.

Written by a team headed by C. Rangarajan, the report points out that Indian agriculture is placed favourably when compared to China in terms of quantity of arable land (161 million hectares vs. 130 million hectares), irrigated land (55.8 million hectares vs. 54.5 million hectares), average farm size (1.4 hectares vs. 0.4 hectares) and farm mechanisation (15.7 tractors per 1000 hectares vs. 7 tractors per 1000 hectares). Thus most of the usual excuses for India’s poor agricultural performance do not hold up when it is compared to China.

The reasons

According to Professor Huang Jikun, Director of the Centre for Chinese Agricultural Policy, the reasons for China having outperformed India in agriculture are threefold: technological improvements accruing from research and development, investment in rural infrastructure and an increasingly liberalised agricultural policy.

In China, the Central government invested RMB 12 billion ($1.5 bn) in agricultural research in 2006, up from RMB 4 billion in 1995. The country currently has over 1,000 R&D centres devoted to agriculture and there is a huge push towards developing new strains of plants. Some two-thirds of all cotton grown in China is BT cotton and nearly 100 per cent of paddy is of a modern variety.

According to the China Agricultural Year Book 2005, the Chinese authorities received and assessed as many as 2,046 applications for the registration of new plant varieties in the five years between 1999 and 2004.

In contrast, S. Ganesan, advisor to the Consortium of Indian Farmers Association reveals, despite India having the largest number of agricultural scientists on the government payroll in the world — over 30,000 — their research track record has been so abysmal that India’s current agricultural productivity is roughly equal to what China achieved in the mid-1980s.

Production of grain and pulses has in fact been stagnant for a decade and there has been virtually no breakthrough in seeds or yield since the Green Revolution. Mr. Ganesan adds that, far from developing new strains, the number of field crop varieties released by the Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR) actually fell by 50 per cent between 1997 and 2001, despite the fact that there was a sharp and sustained increase in funding for the organisation.

One reason for the poor results of India’s R&D in agriculture is the state of the country’s agricultural universities. Mr. Ganesan cites a report according to which 90 per cent of the Punjab Agricultural University’s budget is eaten up by staff salaries with only 3 per cent going to research.

In contrast, as pointed out by Professor Huang, most agricultural research centres in China must use Central government funding purely for research. Funds relating to salaries and other administrative incidentals must be covered by funds generated by the centres themselves. The centres and their scientists are thus encouraged to engage in joint ventures with private sector companies to form commercial spin-offs from their research.

“In China, even public sector organisations today must act somewhat like the private sector,” explains Professor Huang. Thus more and more research staff are being hired on a contract basis with pay linked to research performance. Moreover, salaries for those who perform well have risen several-fold in the last decade — from around $300 to $1,500 a month for a full professor.

But research and technological advances by themselves would have been inadequate to lift Chinese agriculture to its present level of development, says Professor Huang. Investment in rural infrastructure, in particular roads as well as storage and other marketing facilities, has also been crucial, he says.

According to Xinhua news agency, China invested RMB 151.3 billion (almost $20 bn) in the building and reconstruction of 325,000 kilometres of rural roads in 2006 alone.

In contrast, the main form of government assistance to farmers has been through subsidies rather than investment in India. Unlike India, China does not provide its farmers with subsidies for fertilizers or power. Professor Huang says that of the RMB 340 billion ($44.7 bn) spent on rural agricultural investment by the Chinese government in 2006, only about 5 per cent was by way of subsidies.

“There is some debate regarding subsidies and their utility in China but the government realises that on the whole subsidies are against market reforms. They distort the market as well as reduce resource efficiency,” he says.

Lastly Professor Huang credits China’s relative agricultural success to an increasingly liberalised farm policy with a focus on “efficiency as much as on equity.” Thus not only is China sharply reducing its stocks of surplus grain, the government policy is also moving away from an exclusive emphasis on self-sufficiency to a considered leveraging of competitive advantages.

Professor Huang takes soybean as an example. In the 1990s, China imported no soybean at all despite the lack of domestic suitability for its cultivation. In contrast, by 2005 the country imported 26 million tonnes of the legume, 11 million tonnes more than it produced locally. “The demand for soybean is growing but rather than meet it domestically we have realised it is better to import it. We should focus on what we are most suited to producing instead,” Professor Huang concludes.

Unless India is serious about learning from China’s example in agriculture, particularly with regard to improved R&D and more pragmatic agricultural policies, it may not be able to meet its targets for the farm sector in the Eleventh Plan period, feels Mr. Ganesan. To illustrate the “fatal ignorance and blunders” that he says afflict the present agricultural establishment in India, he gives an example from the latest edition of ICAR’s “Handbook of Horticulture” released in 2006; it recommends the pesticide, endrin, for use in growing bananas. Endrin was, in fact, banned in India and most parts of the world nearly 20 years ago.






© Copyright 2000 - 2009 The Hindu

 

[johnny333]

Many of them just wear jeans and drive trucks....hardly I seen any of my technician clients drive a BMW or Mercedez......a 4X4 truck costs 50% more than a mid-range Merz!
.

You must be living outside Calgary.

Those exotic cars are more popular in Calgary but further north it's more practical to drive 4X4 because of the snow they get in winter.

 

[mayliewwan]

How much of the water is polluted??? You dare to drink Northern Alberta water??? Isn't it true that Northern Alberta has one of the highest rate of cancer, all thanks to the oil sands. So why are people living in Northern Alberta fighting tooth and nail against the oil sands expansion???
So what if Alberta has 3 times Saudi's reserve?? Saudi can produce a barrel of oil at a few dollar per barrel. How much does it cost to produce a barrel of oil from the oil sands???
Alberta debt free?? Didn't Alberta ran a deficit this year?? Didn't Harper ran a $50+billion deficit this year? Once the stimulus spending stop, please come back and tell us if Alberta and Canada is as rosy as you predict
$60,000, $150 000 blah blah blah. Why should your son be working. Shouldn't he be spending your investment money. I recall you said one or two months ago, your investment for your son can reach $10 or $16 MILLIONS. Remember I called you a cheapskate for not spending a few dollars to get an unlisted phone numbers as to avoid unsolicited calls . Now getting your son to work . What happened to all the millions you predicted? Life insurance, mutual funds and GIC not selling like hotcakes???
What world are you living in?? Have you not noticed the layoff in the oil patch??? You think it is easy to get those $60 k jobs with work exprience?? According to my relative,young men coming in looking for work. Wage expectation...$30/hr. Plant manager told told them to get lost. Company can't afford to hired them
Only fools drive Merc , BMW or any luxury cars in Edmonton. Potholes during spring and summers. And city refusal to plough residential streets during winter in order to save money. With all those ruts??? on the roads, who wants to drive luxury cars in Edmonton???

Good observation.

China makes a smart move. I read an article some 15 years ago predicting that the new wars will not be fought on terrorism but over WATER.

If you control water and oil, you control the world. And in Canada, we have 20% of the world fresh supply with only 3% of the world population and Alberta oil sand alone is 3 times the Saudi Arabia reserve....current value at US at least $40 and can be as mch as $80 Trillion! Yea, that's trillion and not billion.

I listen on radio about a social scientist report, that within 30 years, Canada will be the number one country in the world bec. it supplies the raw materials like oil, gas, uranium and off course wheat (the Paries is the wheat baseket of the world) and beef. Also Potash in Saskachewan is the largest fertilizer company in the world.

We could be debt free by then. After all, Alberta is already debt-free some 6 years ago.

I have been telling my son that he does not need to go anywhere in the world as Alberta has it all. Now he 14 years old. Last week I took him to the technical institute open house and I lead him to see all the technical courses leading to dimploma. I told him the Instrumentaion Engineering diploma is the best everywhere requires instrumentation technician.....oil and gas refinaries, chemical plan and even aircraft. The starting pay is about Can$60,000 per year without overtime.

Once he gets his jouneyman and he works another 30 hours of overtime plus holidays he can easily earn over Can$150,000 per year....i.e about Sin$180,000. I know many technicians' yearly income in the oil field are $250,000! That would give him a very comfortable living.

Many of them just wear jeans and drive trucks....hardly I seen any of my technician clients drive a BMW or Mercedez......a 4X4 truck costs 50% more than a mid-range Merz!

I have technician clients who own speed boats (my son and I even went fishing with them), receation vechicles (already cost more than a Merz) and go dear hunting.

That's why when summer comes, you can see lots of receation vechicles on the highway and come winter, lost to them can afford to fly to Hawaii the whole month for the warm sun.

 

[tanwahtiu]

Neber heard of latest tunneling technologies that can did through the earth and come out the other side, and drilling can turn 90 deg somemore. Drill tunnels from anywhere to N or S poles and suck fresh icy water. What famine no water?

 

[singveld]

since singapore do not produce enough food for it's need. malaysia will ban food export during the drought.
meaning singaporean will starve to death. probably kill each other and eat human flesh.

Look like a horrible world.

 

[johnny333]

since singapore do not produce enough food for it's need. malaysia will ban food export during the drought.
meaning singaporean will starve to death. probably kill each other and eat human flesh.

Look like a horrible world.

I don't think we have to wait for mass starvation. There's so many other things that can go wrong in Spore.

Other than clogged roads, public transport, there are those massive 30, 40, 50+ story buildings being built today. Just imagine what's going to happen when the elevators breakdown, due to poor maintenances. We are already seeing the cockups that can occure in Spore: floods, power interruptions, falling aircraft,....

Those responsible for the shoddy infrastructure will have retired or be gone by then but leaving behind the mess.

 

[longbow]

No lah, got money will not starve. No need to grow the food. The strange thing is that often, it is the farmer that starves. He is forced to sell his crops to pay for the debt on land. And since crops are worth more due to shortage of food he will sell as much as he can. The countries that can afford it will not starve. Think about it. Lets say 1kg of rice cost S$3. Even if they raise it to S$10 a kg, most Singaporeans can still afford it. At worst if 1 kg of rice can feed family for 4 for 1 week, that extra $7 to $8 a week or $2 per person per week can eassily be subsidized by Gov.

$2 per person per week is only $8 per month of subsidy. If we have population of 5 million that is only $40 million a month. I think our ERP alone collect more that that!

But mainpoint is that many do not need to subsidies. They salary can easily cover.

since singapore do not produce enough food for it's need. malaysia will ban food export during the drought.
meaning singaporean will starve to death. probably kill each other and eat human flesh.

Look like a horrible world.

 

[GoFlyKiteNow]

No lah, got money will not starve. No need to grow the food. The strange thing is that often, it is the farmer that starves. He is forced to sell his crops to pay for the debt on land. And since crops are worth more due to shortage of food he will sell as much as he can. The countries that can afford it will not starve. Think about it. Lets say 1kg of rice cost S$3. Even if they raise it to S$10 a kg, most Singaporeans can still afford it. At worst if 1 kg of rice can feed family for 4 for 1 week, that extra $7 to $8 a week or $2 per person per week can eassily be subsidized by Gov.

$2 per person per week is only $8 per month of subsidy. If we have population of 5 million that is only $40 million a month. I think our ERP alone collect more that that!

But mainpoint is that many do not need to subsidies. They salary can easily cover.

Longbow.
You surprise people with simplistic observations.
Once a famine is evident, then the whole global economy
is in disarray. Food is the first and the most basic foundation
in any economic pyramid structure.
The absence of food or shortage of it will collapse the economic
structure as we know it and paper currency will hold no respect.
Even gold and silver are in dubious category as far as purchase
power is concerned.

 

[flkyflky]

Precisely - that is why China by controlling Tibet, controls all the major rivers flowing from China into India, Bangla, etc etc.

Even Mekong originates from Tibet. So in 20 years countries are going to have to look up to China to release more water from the rivers.

At current projection and growth, the Chinese will reach superpower status in 10 to 20 years and they will not cede water rights easily.

Your concept of river is wrong. River is not a pipe taking water all from a source to a destination. Rivers' sources actually contributes only tiny amount of water, like a creek only. The majority of water that goes in big rivers are from their wider catchment areas, which are located very far from their sources and in many cases from many countries. Thousands of brunches and creeks and streams from a very wide area congregated together eventually into one river.

River is the opposite of a tree but like a tree - one main truck many brunches and there is one tree-top. You can not say that all the water from tree roots are evaporated off from tree-top, they are evaporated from all brunches and leaves. It is not a pipe.

 

[longbow]

I am not talking about global famine. I doubt if there is anything as global famine. Most of the famines we have seen so far are due to distribution issues.

There is no such thing as a global famine. So drought in India and China could be met with delivery from US, Australia, South America etc etc.

With today's delivery infrastructure I cannot see global famine where there is insufficient food. There is a lot of farm land wasted for fuel. Corn and sugar cane into ethenol. If they produce food instead we will have no famine.

The water being evaporated into the atmosphere has to come down somewhere. Should there be global warming then the cooler areas would now be able to grow 3 crops vs 2 crops in a year.

Put it this way, as per my article on inefficient India farming methods. If India spent the amount they did on the Commonwealth games on irrigation, I am sure they would be able to increase production dramatically.

It is all about price. If rice goes from $3 per kg to $5 per kg, Brazil might decide it is more profitable to grow rice vs sugarcane. At $10 per kg, It might make sense for US farms to grow rice on cornfields despite the need for copious amounts of water needed.

In short lots of food, just that the poor will suffer - as usual.

Read that India actually produces enough food but the lousy infrastructure means a lot of food is wasted. Without proper refrigeration, fish and meats can last 24 hours in the Indian heat. Without silos, grain will rot in the humid and wet weather. With lousy roads, it is not cost effective to transport food across the country. So problem is in infrastructure to reduce wastage.

 

[GoFlyKiteNow]

I am not talking about global famine. I doubt if there is anything as global famine. Most of the famines we have seen so far are due to distribution issues.

There is no such thing as a global famine. So drought in India and China could be met with delivery from US, Australia, South America etc etc.

With today's delivery infrastructure I cannot see global famine where there is insufficient food. There is a lot of farm land wasted for fuel. Corn and sugar cane into ethenol. If they produce food instead we will have no famine.

The water being evaporated into the atmosphere has to come down somewhere. Should there be global warming then the cooler areas would now be able to grow 3 crops vs 2 crops in a year.

Put it this way, as per my article on inefficient India farming methods. If India spent the amount they did on the Commonwealth games on irrigation, I am sure they would be able to increase production dramatically.

It is all about price. If rice goes from $3 per kg to $5 per kg, Brazil might decide it is more profitable to grow rice vs sugarcane. At $10 per kg, It might make sense for US farms to grow rice on cornfields despite the need for copious amounts of water needed.

In short lots of food, just that the poor will suffer - as usual.

Read that India actually produces enough food but the lousy infrastructure means a lot of food is wasted. Without proper refrigeration, fish and meats can last 24 hours in the Indian heat. Without silos, grain will rot in the humid and wet weather. With lousy roads, it is not cost effective to transport food across the country. So problem is in infrastructure to reduce wastage.

What is agricultural productivity ?..based on quanity output ?
Then it raises serious concerns.
Example: You can get two times the grain output using Urea and phosphate fertilisers
intensively , compared to conventional farming that produce half the output.

But the end result is this. The soil gets acidified over a period
of time, which is what is now happening in China farmlands
and the yield falls and the crop has high levels of chemicals within it
that enters the population's food chain.

So there is a very serious downside. Due to looking at everything
with an accountant's / economist's pink glasses.

 

[LonewolfAlfa]

just eat indomie. cheap and delicious.