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By Rachel Chang And Leonard Lim
A DAY after their defeat in Punggol East, the People's Action Party (PAP) camp is looking for answers.
Party insiders admitted yesterday the margin of the Workers' Party (WP) win - 10.8 percentage points - took them by surprise.
The unexpected defeat triggered much soul-searching among party insiders - not just on the reasons for the loss, but also on why they had failed to see it coming.
The final count of last Saturday's votes showed the PAP candidate, Dr Koh Poh Koon, had lost in every single one of the 10 polling stations. The swing against the ruling party was broad-based.
PAP leaders have largely attributed the loss to the by-election effect, which makes residents more willing to vote in an opposition MP as a PAP Government is in place. But yesterday, several MPs and activists said lingering dissatisfaction over national issues such as housing prices and public transport also played a big role. The rising cost of living appeared to weigh on voters' minds as well.
Still, the PAP had started out fairly confident, said sources.
The first reason was the traditional political wisdom that a multi-cornered fight benefits the incumbent. The PAP camp, said sources, expected the Singapore Democratic Alliance and the Reform Party to take 5 to 10 per cent of the vote from the WP. In the end, they collectively polled less than 2 per cent.
The PAP camp also believed that former speaker Michael Palmer's resignation over an extra-marital affair would not greatly harm their level of support. Similar circumstances had triggered the Hougang by-election and not hurt the WP, they reasoned.
But branch chairman Victor Lye of Bedok Reservoir-Punggol in Aljunied GRC said the local team of activists often suffers from a "hopeful bias", as was the case in Aljunied in 2011. "When we are the ones in it, we are always optimistic," he said.
This, said sources, contributed to an overly positive interpretation of ground intelligence. For example, on the night of the WP's final rally in Punggol East last Wednesday, the PAP camp sent out 400 activists to blanket the blocks around the rally site, and were told to report back on residents' reception."Everyone said that the people they met were very supportive," said one MP, who spoke on condition of anonymity.
"But of course only the PAP supporters were at home, the rest were at the rally."
The campaign was headed by Acting Minister for Social and Family Development Chan Chun Sing, and caretaker MP and Minister of State Teo Ser Luck. They took pains to avoid the missteps of other close contests.
They kept the campaign local and the spotlight on Dr Koh.
In past losses like Aljunied GRC in 2011 and Hougang last May, PAP "big guns" were perceived to have hurt the candidates by making statements that angered some voters.
As the campaign wore on, the party brass were anxious to stump for Dr Koh and show that the PAP was fully behind the candidate.
But when they showed up on the trail in the second half of the nine-day campaign, it dovetailed neatly with the WP's message that the presence of opposition makes the PAP work harder, lamented one MP.
The three men at the helm of the PAP's campaign in Punggol East were also relatively inexperienced, noted insiders.
Both Mr Chan and Mr Teo are relatively untested electorally: The former entered politics in a walkover in Tanjong Pagar in 2011, while the latter went through two easy contests against opposition minnows in Pasir Ris-Punggol.
Dr Koh himself was a political greenhorn. As a top surgeon and beneficiary of the meritocratic system, he was a perfect candidate in the party leadership's eyes. But voters seemed to connect better with the WP's Ms Lee Li Lian because she came off as "one of them", said one activist.
PAP MP Zaqy Mohamad said: "You can be a high-flier, but who you need in this day is someone who can connect with the ground."
Despite these factors, MPs said yesterday they thought the local campaign had been "smooth, targeted and solid" overall. But sentiment on the ground over national issues was against the PAP.
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A DAY after their defeat in Punggol East, the People's Action Party (PAP) camp is looking for answers.
Party insiders admitted yesterday the margin of the Workers' Party (WP) win - 10.8 percentage points - took them by surprise.
The unexpected defeat triggered much soul-searching among party insiders - not just on the reasons for the loss, but also on why they had failed to see it coming.
The final count of last Saturday's votes showed the PAP candidate, Dr Koh Poh Koon, had lost in every single one of the 10 polling stations. The swing against the ruling party was broad-based.
PAP leaders have largely attributed the loss to the by-election effect, which makes residents more willing to vote in an opposition MP as a PAP Government is in place. But yesterday, several MPs and activists said lingering dissatisfaction over national issues such as housing prices and public transport also played a big role. The rising cost of living appeared to weigh on voters' minds as well.
Still, the PAP had started out fairly confident, said sources.
The first reason was the traditional political wisdom that a multi-cornered fight benefits the incumbent. The PAP camp, said sources, expected the Singapore Democratic Alliance and the Reform Party to take 5 to 10 per cent of the vote from the WP. In the end, they collectively polled less than 2 per cent.
The PAP camp also believed that former speaker Michael Palmer's resignation over an extra-marital affair would not greatly harm their level of support. Similar circumstances had triggered the Hougang by-election and not hurt the WP, they reasoned.
But branch chairman Victor Lye of Bedok Reservoir-Punggol in Aljunied GRC said the local team of activists often suffers from a "hopeful bias", as was the case in Aljunied in 2011. "When we are the ones in it, we are always optimistic," he said.
This, said sources, contributed to an overly positive interpretation of ground intelligence. For example, on the night of the WP's final rally in Punggol East last Wednesday, the PAP camp sent out 400 activists to blanket the blocks around the rally site, and were told to report back on residents' reception."Everyone said that the people they met were very supportive," said one MP, who spoke on condition of anonymity.
"But of course only the PAP supporters were at home, the rest were at the rally."
The campaign was headed by Acting Minister for Social and Family Development Chan Chun Sing, and caretaker MP and Minister of State Teo Ser Luck. They took pains to avoid the missteps of other close contests.
They kept the campaign local and the spotlight on Dr Koh.
In past losses like Aljunied GRC in 2011 and Hougang last May, PAP "big guns" were perceived to have hurt the candidates by making statements that angered some voters.
As the campaign wore on, the party brass were anxious to stump for Dr Koh and show that the PAP was fully behind the candidate.
But when they showed up on the trail in the second half of the nine-day campaign, it dovetailed neatly with the WP's message that the presence of opposition makes the PAP work harder, lamented one MP.
The three men at the helm of the PAP's campaign in Punggol East were also relatively inexperienced, noted insiders.
Both Mr Chan and Mr Teo are relatively untested electorally: The former entered politics in a walkover in Tanjong Pagar in 2011, while the latter went through two easy contests against opposition minnows in Pasir Ris-Punggol.
Dr Koh himself was a political greenhorn. As a top surgeon and beneficiary of the meritocratic system, he was a perfect candidate in the party leadership's eyes. But voters seemed to connect better with the WP's Ms Lee Li Lian because she came off as "one of them", said one activist.
PAP MP Zaqy Mohamad said: "You can be a high-flier, but who you need in this day is someone who can connect with the ground."
Despite these factors, MPs said yesterday they thought the local campaign had been "smooth, targeted and solid" overall. But sentiment on the ground over national issues was against the PAP.
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