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<TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%"><TBODY><TR class=msghead><TD><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0><TBODY><TR class=msghead vAlign=top><TD class=msgF width="1%" noWrap align=right>From: </TD><TD class=msgFname width="68%" noWrap>kojakbt_89_ <NOBR></NOBR></TD><TD class=msgDate width="30%" noWrap align=right>May-18 11:06 am </TD></TR><TR class=msghead><TD class=msgT height=20 width="1%" noWrap align=right>To: </TD><TD class=msgTname width="68%" noWrap>ALL <NOBR></NOBR></TD><TD class=msgNum noWrap align=right></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR><TR><TD class=msgleft rowSpan=4 width="1%"></TD><TD class=wintiny noWrap align=right>51233.1 </TD></TR><TR><TD height=8></TD></TR><TR><TD id=msgtxt_1 class=msgtxt>Friday, 13 May 2011
Secret Illegal Election Poll
http://singstatistician.blogspot.com/2011/05/secret-illegal-election-poll.html
Round about cooling off day, we saw all sorts of rumors surfacing of mythical bookies and mysterious data mining done by the PAP to determine the outcome of GE 2011.
Now that the dust has settled, the truth is starting to emerge. During the elections, SOMEONE secretly commissioned an illegal election poll. This was done by an Australian based polling company called UMR Research. You can see the topline findings of this poll here:
[URL]http://umrresearch.com.au/doc/Singap...ay11_Final.pdf[/URL]
The data collection was from 3rd May to 5th May. The method of data collection is given as online interview. This is however almost certain to be incorrect since you cannot obtain a statistically random sample via online means in such a short period. As interviewers doing face to face would have been seen, the methodology was most likely via telephone interviews conducted from overseas (hence using an obscure Australian polling company).
The total sample size of the poll was 522. This was stratified into sub samples of 52 each, meaning that they covered 10 GRCs/SMCs of interest. The Confidence Level is 90%. The n and p values of the sample yield a standard deviation of about 3% which was bandied about in places like Sammyboy forum ([URL]http://www.sammyboy.com/index.php[/URL] ).
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-d0odH06dftY/Tc4FfIJB_dI/AAAAAAAAABE/qdbMdi1KGac/s1600/Poll1.jpg
Of interest is slide 6 where the respondent was directly asked whether they would vote for PAP or the Opposition. At the overall aggregate level, the sample size is 522. The Confidence Level is approximately 96%. This incidentally is potentially illegal. If the poll had been done by an Opposition party, they would probably be under investigation now.
Also of interest is slide 10. This shows the perception Singaporeans have of the various parties. WP is off the chart and coming very close to matching the PAP. Concerns about SPP surfaced as this study showed that it was the most popular among the other Opposition parties less WP. NSP was the surprise package. Their election results in Mountbatten SMC, Marine Parade GRC and Tampines GRC were almost as good as WP. Their image according to this poll however puts them on par with SDP. Clearly there is something else happening (e.g. the political popularity of Nicole Seah) which is not being captured in the poll.
The results of this secret illegal election poll was released to the foreign news wires during the election “black out” period. Reuters published the following article during the election “black out” period:
[URL]http://in.reuters.com/article/2011/05/07/idINIndia-56846820110507[/URL]
My hypothesis for why they released this secret illegal election poll to the foreign news wires was because there were concerns by foreign investors and foreign governments. Given the large Opposition rallies and anti-PAP sentiment sweeping , there were worries that something unexpected might happen. There was therefore a need to reassure foreigners that everything was OK and that the PAP was still firmly in control. Foreigners were therefore told the truth while Singaporeans were kept in the dark.
Shortly after I published my original posting, I received a comment that it is not illegal to do political polling in as long as the results are not published. I am not a lawyer so I do not know if this is true. My feeling is that this is probably true if you are the PAP. If you are the Opposition however, they will investigate you thoroughly. They will look though all of the existing laws and find some way to shut you down. In the unlikely event that they really cannot find anything, it is relatively easy for the PAP to make it illegal given that they won the elections 81-6.
In the fight to control the flow of information, political polling is one of few king cards left in the PAP deck. They are unlikely to give it up easily.
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Secret Illegal Election Poll
http://singstatistician.blogspot.com/2011/05/secret-illegal-election-poll.html
Round about cooling off day, we saw all sorts of rumors surfacing of mythical bookies and mysterious data mining done by the PAP to determine the outcome of GE 2011. Now that the dust has settled, the truth is starting to emerge. During the elections, SOMEONE secretly commissioned an illegal election poll. This was done by an Australian based polling company called UMR Research. You can see the topline findings of this poll here:
[URL]http://umrresearch.com.au/doc/Singap...ay11_Final.pdf[/URL]
The data collection was from 3rd May to 5th May. The method of data collection is given as online interview. This is however almost certain to be incorrect since you cannot obtain a statistically random sample via online means in such a short period. As interviewers doing face to face would have been seen, the methodology was most likely via telephone interviews conducted from overseas (hence using an obscure Australian polling company).
The total sample size of the poll was 522. This was stratified into sub samples of 52 each, meaning that they covered 10 GRCs/SMCs of interest. The Confidence Level is 90%. The n and p values of the sample yield a standard deviation of about 3% which was bandied about in places like Sammyboy forum ([URL]http://www.sammyboy.com/index.php[/URL] ).
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-d0odH06dftY/Tc4FfIJB_dI/AAAAAAAAABE/qdbMdi1KGac/s1600/Poll1.jpg
Of interest is slide 6 where the respondent was directly asked whether they would vote for PAP or the Opposition. At the overall aggregate level, the sample size is 522. The Confidence Level is approximately 96%. This incidentally is potentially illegal. If the poll had been done by an Opposition party, they would probably be under investigation now. 
Also of interest is slide 10. This shows the perception Singaporeans have of the various parties. WP is off the chart and coming very close to matching the PAP. Concerns about SPP surfaced as this study showed that it was the most popular among the other Opposition parties less WP. NSP was the surprise package. Their election results in Mountbatten SMC, Marine Parade GRC and Tampines GRC were almost as good as WP. Their image according to this poll however puts them on par with SDP. Clearly there is something else happening (e.g. the political popularity of Nicole Seah) which is not being captured in the poll. The results of this secret illegal election poll was released to the foreign news wires during the election “black out” period. Reuters published the following article during the election “black out” period:
[URL]http://in.reuters.com/article/2011/05/07/idINIndia-56846820110507[/URL]
My hypothesis for why they released this secret illegal election poll to the foreign news wires was because there were concerns by foreign investors and foreign governments. Given the large Opposition rallies and anti-PAP sentiment sweeping , there were worries that something unexpected might happen. There was therefore a need to reassure foreigners that everything was OK and that the PAP was still firmly in control. Foreigners were therefore told the truth while Singaporeans were kept in the dark.
Shortly after I published my original posting, I received a comment that it is not illegal to do political polling in as long as the results are not published. I am not a lawyer so I do not know if this is true. My feeling is that this is probably true if you are the PAP. If you are the Opposition however, they will investigate you thoroughly. They will look though all of the existing laws and find some way to shut you down. In the unlikely event that they really cannot find anything, it is relatively easy for the PAP to make it illegal given that they won the elections 81-6.
In the fight to control the flow of information, political polling is one of few king cards left in the PAP deck. They are unlikely to give it up easily.
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
