PAP Gives up, SPH Caves in

[scroobal]

It is not who is in the right side of 35% but more so who is on the right side of 47%.

By Robin Chan
Singapolitics
Thursday, Jan 10, 2013

SINGAPORE - If the Punggol East by-election shapes up to be a three- or four-cornered fight, there could be a sense of deja vu over the results.

The outcome could be a repeat of the closely fought presidential election in 2011, analysts are predicting.

In that four-horse race, People's Action Party-backed candidate Tony Tan Keng Yam won just 35.2 per cent of the votes, an edge of just 0.35 percentage points over the runner-up.

Based on that result, some observers believe that is the base share of votes the PAP will get in an election that could feature some similarities.

That presidential election featured a former PAP MP in Dr Tan Cheng Bock, who was seen as "moderate PAP" and yet, also an opposition candidate, so he was able to win votes from the moderates on both sides.

Therefore, an opposition party candidate with a similar profile could give the PAP candidate a run for his money in Punggol East in the coming weeks.

The question is: Which is that party?

Some believe that it could be the Workers' Party (WP).

Former Nominated MP Siew Kum Hong said: "If it is a three-cornered fight between the PAP, the WP and the SDP, we could consider it analogous to the presidential election (where Dr Tony Tan represents the PAP, Dr Tan Cheng Bock represents the WP, and Mr Tan Jee Say represents the Singapore Democratic Party).

"There is a core segment of voters who are liberal, who will vote for the SDP over a viable non- PAP candidate, which means that the SDP will eat into the WP's votes, and that the PAP will win."

The presidential election gave the chance for such analysis of voter behaviour because it fielded three credible candidates, with Mr Tan Jee Say, the former SDP member, seen as the candidate supported by the most hardcore of anti-PAP voters. The fourth, Mr Tan Kin Lian, had just 5 per cent of the votes, and did not get his deposit back.

Before that presidential contest, multi-cornered fights have tended to heavily favour the PAP in the past.

In all multi-cornered fights since 1988, the PAP has never received less than 54 per cent of the vote, which disgraced PAP MP Michael Palmer won in 2011 against the WP's Ms Lee Li Lian and the Singapore Democratic Alliance's (SDA) Mr Desmond Lim.

Prior to that watershed general election two years ago, the PAP had not received less than 61 per cent of the vote in nine contests that featured more than two parties, averaging 68 per cent of the vote.

This trend meant that multi- cornered fights have become an increasingly rare occurrence, as opposition parties hammer out deals to avoid splitting each other's votes.

Since a whopping 27 multi-cornered fights in 1972, they have become a rarity.

The number of multi-cornered fights fell to five between 1980 and 1991, then to two in 1997, and then just one in 2011.

Since the Punggol East seat was vacated, at least four opposition parties have indicated interest in contesting.

As of yesterday, the WP and the SDP have confirmed that they will contest against expected PAP candidate Koh Poh Koon, a colorectal surgeon.

But both the Reform Party's Mr Kenneth Jeyaretnam and SDA member Mr Lim are keen to contest the polls, with Mr Benjamin Pwee also considering contesting.

A multi-cornered fight could split the votes of the PAP and another more moderate candidate. But it will also hurt the chances of credible opposition parties by diluting the votes among themselves. It appears 35 per cent is the number to beat.

And if an opposition party wants to increase its chances of winning the seat, the numbers clearly show that they should try to broker a deal to avoid a multi- cornered fight.

Or they may face heartbreak again, just as Dr Tan did in the presidential contest.

[email protected]

 

[lockeliberal]

Dear Scroobal,

The time for stock take and reflection is here. It has been an interesting nine days but what is fascinating are the following observations point by point. My number are 46 PAP 45 WP 8 RP 1 SDA

a. It started of quite normally both on the PAP and the WP side. Both selected their "local " hero, a close fight perhaps but with it being three or four cornered, the PAP on historical trends seem assured of a win. Heng Swee Keat lead, planned the campaign with TCH supporting. All in all not that different from a Hougang BE. not a life or death fight for the PAP, not a life or death for the WP.

b. However over the course of the nine days and through the campaign. The following have become apparent, Punggol boy whether he likes Punggol Nasi Lemak and drives a van to work , it really does not matter, It has become a BE on the likeability of the PAP. The PAP sought it tried to play it as a referendum on the WP but through the nine days it became clear that as the consistent hammering of the WP on the same issues it became a referendum on the PAP.

c. I think at some point, someone at WP really thought , wait a minute we might actually WIN this, hence the last rally. The converse thought was FUCK We might actually lose this on the PAP side, hence the dragging out of PM on the last nite. Which brings me to the next thought, Why does it matter so much to the PAP that they lose one more seat ? I mean one more obviously its no big issue as its still below the number the PM can handle.


d. That is the one thing I can't figure out. Ok its egg on the PAP's face if they lose the PE, however its an even bigger omelette on the PM"s face if he stumps on the last day and they lose, so why take the political risk ? What are the party internals ?



Locke

 

[cunnilaubu]

d. That is the one thing I can't figure out. Ok its egg on the PAP's face if they lose the PE, however its an even bigger omelette on the PM"s face if he stumps on the last day and they lose, so why take the political risk ? What are the party internals ?

May I hazard a guess?

PAP may be trying to prevent a domino effect come 2016. If they lose this one, it will be their 4th setbacks in a roll (although they win PE2011, it was a setback nonetheless due to the low votes polled). That will put pressure on the govt to concede more policy changes and be more accommodating.
People are beginning to see the positive effects of more opposition MPs in parliament. WP's performance in parliament aside, there are certainly some willingness on the part of the govt to make changes, however minor these maybe. This may encourage Sinkies to be more adventurous and vote for more oppositions in future elections.

A win for WP will also give courage to more people, who may still be undecided, to join the oppositions.
With questions on the candidacy of KPK - him joining the party only 3 weeks before nomination day, his parachuting into Punggol, KPK's revelation that he rejected PM's calling initially - people are questioning if PAP is having problem recruiting "good"candidates.

If someone like LLL, who is less glamorous, can beat a elite professional from PAP, I am sure it will encourage many more better people to come forward. This would spell trouble for PAP. Already, WP has paraded 4 new professionals during this BE, imagine how many more can they recruit if LLL can pull this one through.

 

[aurvandil]

The campaign started off slowly. Round about Monday/Tuesday, an EVENT happened. This EVENT appeared to cause all of the players to act out of character. The following is a summary of the key milestones:

1) TRE reveals a whistle blower who found an obscure link that pointed to an ex-NCS DD that revealed AIM might have cost as much as $30 million. The method of whistle blowing is eerily similar to the whistle blowing that surfaced Patrick Tan's NS record in the Presidential Election.

2) SL unexpectedly brings AIM up during her rally.LTK gives a speech on how WP is going it alone.

3) THP releases a canned response on AIM to SL. No one else in the PAP responds.

4) TOC releases an unusually sharp and pointed press release on AIM to THP. THP fails to respond.

5) TRE follows up with an article which showed that the ex-NCS DD has removed the information about the $30 million.

6) WP does a fire and brimstone third rally. They talk about AIM and everything no one thought they had the courage to say.

7) PAP does not respond to WP in the morning news cycle.

8) PAP does not respond in their final rally.

9) PM LHL steps forward to give a canned speech that seems totally disjointed from what has been happening.

 

[Troll]

What's note worthy is that even the PM himself, asking the people to "vote for what they believe in", as well as "vote for PAP if they are happy with what PAP has done". What he has said cuts both ways, and maybe cut PAP deeper than he might have intended.

Not wanting to jinx the WP's campaign thus far, I think I'll stop short of this and leave it to the more sagacious ones to ponder over what I said.

 

[metalmickey]

b. However over the course of the nine days and through the campaign. The following have become apparent, Punggol boy whether he likes Punggol Nasi Lemak and drives a van to work , it really does not matter, It has become a BE on the likeability of the PAP. The PAP sought it tried to play it as a referendum on the WP but through the nine days it became clear that as the consistent hammering of the WP on the same issues it became a referendum on the PAP.

It was always a campaign on the likeability of the PAP, right from the beginning, right from the introduction of Koh Poh Koon. Hence the playing up of the "son of Punggol" image from the beginning. It's a risk for the PAP to change the terms of the debate to likeability, which is WP's home turf. Do it well, and you counter WP's strengths. Do it badly, and you play right into their hands.

c. I think at some point, someone at WP really thought , wait a minute we might actually WIN this, hence the last rally. The converse thought was FUCK We might actually lose this on the PAP side, hence the dragging out of PM on the last nite. Which brings me to the next thought, Why does it matter so much to the PAP that they lose one more seat ? I mean one more obviously its no big issue as its still below the number the PM can handle.

Right, so when the WP brings their secret weapon out on the last day, it's because they suddenly think they could win it. When the PAP brings out their secret weapon on the last day, it's because they suddenly think they could lose it.

d. That is the one thing I can't figure out. Ok its egg on the PAP's face if they lose the PE, however its an even bigger omelette on the PM"s face if he stumps on the last day and they lose, so why take the political risk ? What are the party internals ?

First, a leader's got to do what a leader's got to do. Show your face too much and people might think that you have no faith in your candidate and you're campaigning on his behalf. Don't show your face at all, and it's a glaring omission. Once or twice is around fine.

 

[metalmickey]

May I hazard a guess?

PAP may be trying to prevent a domino effect come 2016. If they lose this one, it will be their 4th setbacks in a roll (although they win PE2011, it was a setback nonetheless due to the low votes polled). That will put pressure on the govt to concede more policy changes and be more accommodating.
People are beginning to see the positive effects of more opposition MPs in parliament. WP's performance in parliament aside, there are certainly some willingness on the part of the govt to make changes, however minor these maybe. This may encourage Sinkies to be more adventurous and vote for more oppositions in future elections.

A win for WP will also give courage to more people, who may still be undecided, to join the oppositions.
With questions on the candidacy of KPK - him joining the party only 3 weeks before nomination day, his parachuting into Punggol, KPK's revelation that he rejected PM's calling initially - people are questioning if PAP is having problem recruiting "good"candidates.

If someone like LLL, who is less glamorous, can beat a elite professional from PAP, I am sure it will encourage many more better people to come forward. This would spell trouble for PAP. Already, WP has paraded 4 new professionals during this BE, imagine how many more can they recruit if LLL can pull this one through.

If they lose this one, it's a fifth setback in a row, if you count GE 2006.

Before this election, a lot of people were already saying that the PAP could not afford to lose this one. There are various reasons for this:

1. PAP could afford to lose Hougang because they never had Hougang in the first place. But Hougang was not a good result for the PAP because the ysl scandal only translated into a few points gain.
2. This election can be seen as a referendum on the post 2011 PAP, that tried to look more accountable by flushing out a lot of unpopular ministers, trying to "engage" the people, trying to look more "accountable" and responsive. (Think of no porn Lui riding the MRT during rush hour to personally check things out). If this still doesn't get results for the PAP, it could look really bad for them. And maybe they are moving in the right direction, but if this election result is not good, it could hamper their efforts at reform.
3. LHL got rid of a lot of GCT era people, and will look to this election as a mandate to consolidate his hold on power. A setback will make him lose some authority within his party.
4. The ramifications of WP making relatively large gains in 2011 are still unknown. Maybe the people will be more happy with around 6 opposition MPs and stop asking for more. Maybe the GE was just a confluence of a lot of negative factors that produced a large blip on the PAP performance. Maybe, like 1991, the opposition will screw up and hand the initiative back to the PAP. Or maybe, having proven themselves, the WP and the rest of the opposition will go from strength to strength and this is the beginning of the end for the PAP.

That PAP is finding it harder and harder to attract good people is old news (think about Tin Pei Ling and Foo Mee Har, or even Seng Han Thong). That the opposition is finding it easier to attract good people is also old news (the slate of opposition candidates in 2011 was a vast improvement over 2006).

 

[GOD IS MY DOG]

If they lose this one, it's a fifth setback in a row, if you count GE 2006.

Before this election, a lot of people were already saying that the PAP could not afford to lose this one. There are various reasons for this:

1. PAP could afford to lose Hougang because they never had Hougang in the first place. But Hougang was not a good result for the PAP because the ysl scandal only translated into a few points gain.
2. This election can be seen as a referendum on the post 2011 PAP, that tried to look more accountable by flushing out a lot of unpopular ministers, trying to "engage" the people, trying to look more "accountable" and responsive. (Think of no porn Lui riding the MRT during rush hour to personally check things out). If this still doesn't get results for the PAP, it could look really bad for them. And maybe they are moving in the right direction, but if this election result is not good, it could hamper their efforts at reform.
3. LHL got rid of a lot of GCT era people, and will look to this election as a mandate to consolidate his hold on power. A setback will make him lose some authority within his party.
4. The ramifications of WP making relatively large gains in 2011 are still unknown. Maybe the people will be more happy with around 6 opposition MPs and stop asking for more. Maybe the GE was just a confluence of a lot of negative factors that produced a large blip on the PAP performance. Maybe, like 1991, the opposition will screw up and hand the initiative back to the PAP. Or maybe, having proven themselves, the WP and the rest of the opposition will go from strength to strength and this is the beginning of the end for the PAP.

That PAP is finding it harder and harder to attract good people is old news (think about Tin Pei Ling and Foo Mee Har, or even Seng Han Thong). That the opposition is finding it easier to attract good people is also old news (the slate of opposition candidates in 2011 was a vast improvement over 2006).

sigh.....................truly an empty vessel makes the most noise........................

 

[zhihau]

Or they may face heartbreak again, just as Dr Tan did in the presidential contest

bro,
you sure the old man didn't look tancho up for a chat? :p:p:p

 

[sense]

SDA may be liken to Tan Kin Lian... ie. lowest votes. However, RP is no Tan Jee Say, ie. RP is worse.

As such, there is still a chance for WP to be ahead of PAP, even if it's by a small margin.

 

[Sinkie]

SDA may be liken to Tan Kin Lian... ie. lowest votes. However, RP is no Tan Jee Say, ie. RP is worse.

As such, there is still a chance for WP to be ahead of PAP, even if it's by a small margin.

Good point, but then again, LLL is not Tan Cheng Bock.