PAP cabinet pse resign now, Indon Economy surpass SGP

新加坡陈庆扁总统

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http://sg.xinhuanet.com/2014-05/07/c_126469641.htm


印尼超越新加坡韩国 成全球第十大经济体
2014年05月07日 07:12:57  来源: 人民网 【字号 大小】【收藏】【打印】【关闭】

  世界银行报告日前公布的2011年国际比较计划(ICP)统计数据指出,印尼超越韩国、新加坡,跻身全球第十大经济体,紧追在巴西、法国、英国之后,对全球经济产出贡献2.3%。

  根据统计数据,依照购买力平价(PPP)标准来计算,印尼跃升6级,成为全球第十大经济体,仅次于美国、中国、印度、日本、德国、俄罗斯、巴西、法国以及英国。

  对此印尼总统苏西洛表示印尼当前保持经济快速增长,准备再创辉煌佳绩,世银预估印尼今年经济增长率为5.3%。

  苏西洛指出,印尼已成为中等收入国家,还必须持续减少失业人数,以及降低贫穷人口比率。

  不过,印尼财政部长巴斯利日前指出,中国经济增长趋缓将是印尼今年出口面临的最大挑战。
 
u mean total gdp?

im pretty sure faiilippines surpass us as well.
 
http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2014/05/05/ri-10th-largest-economy-wb.html


RI 10th-largest economy:
WB

The Jakarta Post, Jakarta | Headlines | Mon, May 05 2014, 9:21 AM


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Indonesia is the world’s 10th-largest economy, climbing five places in six years, according to a recent World Bank (WB)-affiliated report.

In the report compiled by the 2011 International Comparison Program (ICP), which is overseen by a global office housed in the WB, the United States remained the world’s largest economy, followed by China, India, Japan, Germany, Russia, Brazil, France, the United Kingdom, Indonesia, Italy and Mexico.

The countries in the top flight of the 2011 ICP report differed only slightly from those in the 2005 report, in which Spain was among the top 12 world economies.

Based on the 2011 report’s summary and findings, Indonesia recorded US$2,058 billion in gross domestic product (GDP) expenditure and $8,539 in GDP expenditure per capita.

In the 2005 report, Indonesia recorded $707.9 billion in GDP expenditure and $3,234 in GDP expenditure per capita.

It is, however, difficult to compare results between the 2005 ICP and 2011 ICP reports because the number of economies included was very different, the 2011 report says.

The 2005 ICP report covered 146 economies, while the 2011 ICP round covered 199 economies.

“The relative rankings of the three Asian economies — China, India and Indonesia — to the United States doubled while Brazil, Mexico and Russia increased by one-third or more,” it says.

According to the report, the six biggest emerging economies now produce goods and services of equal value to the six biggest rich countries.

The five economies with the highest GDP per capita are Qatar, Macao, Luxembourg, Kuwait and Brunei. The first two economies have more than $100,000 per capita, the ICP report said.

ICP, according to the report, estimated purchasing power parities (PPPs) for use as currency converters to compare the size and price levels of economies around the world.

PPPs are price relatives that show the ratio of the prices in national currencies of the same good or service in different economies. For example, if the price of a hamburger in France is ¤4.80 ($6.65) and in the United States it is $4.00, the PPP for hamburgers between the two economies is $0.80 to the euro from the French perspective and ¤1.20 to the dollar from the US perspective. In other words, for every euro spent on hamburgers in France, $0.83 would have to be spent in the United States to obtain the same quantity and quality.

Before PPPs became widely available, exchange rates were used for international GDP comparisons. But exchange-rate converted GDPs can be highly misleading in indicating the relative sizes of economies and levels of material well-being, according to the report. Under such method, price levels are normally higher in high-income economies than they are in low-income economies.

Analysts have warned, however, not to rejoice too much, since the economy remains driven primarily by consumption.

Chief economist of Bank Central Asia (BCA) David Sumual said Indonesia had the potential to become the seventh- or even fifth-largest economy in the world by 2020 despite its reliance on consumption.

“We have to focus on several important policies, including fiscal and bureaucratic reforms in a short term,” he said on Sunday.

He added that in the long term, the government should also fix a number of problems, such as income disparity and red tape in investment licensing processes, and be more open to foreign investment.

He said that fiscal reform, such as overcoming the problem of energy subsidies, and bureaucratic reform were the keys to reaching the goal.

“Indonesia’s economy is greatly influenced by fuel subsidy issues. If the government manages to overcome them, then the economic situation could become more stable.”

Atmajaya University economist Agustinus Prasetyantoko said Indonesia made it to the 10th position only because its economic growth peaked in 2011 at 6.5 percent.

Bank Mandiri chief economist Destry Damayanti said the government should focus on the manufacturing and farming sectors, where Indonesia had competitiveness, to absorb more workers, help increase per capita income and reduce the gap between the rich and the poor. (ask)
 
dont worry, they r striving becos of QE hot money, no other reason. when these money start downstream to pump up emergent countries that r high risk, chnaces r it will be another argentina/ venezula.

another bigger crisis is looming, it will wipe them out quickly.
 
They want to increase the pop to 6.9 million to stop indo to over take us but most of us do not agree...:p

Aiyo... Indo land area and pop are much higher than Singapore... USA president need to resign when China over take them on GDP???
 
Aiyo... Indo land area and pop are much higher than Singapore... USA president need to resign when China over take them on GDP???

By a new World Bank measure, China's GDP (PPP) may have already surpassed the US'. Even then, it remains a pyrrhic victory – since China is still a developing country with huge rural-urban divide, per capita income is still much lower than most developed countries, and its economy is still largely based on low and mid-tech exports. It's also some way behind the US in technology and military capabilities, as well as its ability to project its soft power.


No Cheers as China Poised to Become World's Largest Economy

By Parameswaran Ponnudurai
2014-05-07

47d77603-0e38-4ef6-90dd-d02dd116d7bd.jpeg
A woman wears a mask in downtown Beijing, March 4, 2014 amid pollution smog.

China will displace the United States as the world's largest economy this year, according to an authoritative World Bank study, but the leaders in Beijing are not uncorking the champagne yet.

In fact, the Chinese government has refused to endorse the report released last week signaling that China will overtake the United States in terms of purchasing power five years ahead of earlier predictions.

Strangely, the Chinese state media steered clear of the news until four days after the April 30 release of the report when it began carrying commentaries downplaying the feat.

The report by the International Comparison Program of the World Bank put China's gross domestic product (GDP) — or value of all final goods and services produced within the nation — at 87 percent the size of the American economy at the end of 2011.

Based on the cumulative growth rates going forward, it was projected that the Asian giant's purchasing power parity (PPP) will eclipse that of the United States later this year.

One may assume that overtaking the United States, which has been the biggest global economy for more than a century, would give Chinese leaders cause to celebrate.

No. Breaking out the bubbly is the last thing on their minds as the world's most populous nation has still a long way to go in matching U.S. living standards and innovation, experts say.

The Chinese economy still lags behind at 99th position on GDP per capita income—which determines the effective consumption power of individuals—compared with the U.S, which is at the 12th spot.

Pressure

The Chinese leaders know that flaunting the country's new status will result in greater pressure on Beijing to meet international and domestic expectations, said Nicholas Lardy, an expert on the Chinese economy at the Washington-based Peterson Institute for International Economics.

On the international front, expectations on what China should do in terms of its contribution to global economic stability will go up, and "I think the leadership is worried that saying that they are number one without taking into account that they have 1.3 billion people creates expectations that they cannot fulfill," Lardy told RFA.

Domestically, if the idea becomes widely known that China is the world's largest economy, there will be a clamor among the people for better health care and education, pollution control, a stronger pension system, and other benefits even though the government's tax revenue to provide services, for example, remains unchanged, he said.

"So, I think if you are [President] Xi Jinping or [Premier] Li Keqiang, you don't want domestic expectations to run ahead of your ability to deliver," Lardy said.

Some believe China's new status will require the country to begin contributing more to development aid and pay more dues at the United Nations. At present, Beijing pays only five percent of the U.N. budget, making it the sixth-largest contributor.

"Most concerning, China's newfound superpower status could undermine its negotiating position in climate talks—Beijing will find less justification in insisting that, as a developing country, it should not bear substantial financial burden in reducing greenhouse gas emissions," said Minxin Pei, a China expert at the German Marshal Fund of the United States, in a published report.

Risks

On the geopolitical front, he said, the risks of being at the top of the economic heap are considerable.

"The U.S. and its allies, driven by fears of Chinese power, might balance against China," Pei said. "Because the Chinese economy is less than half that of the West— including Japan—China is no match against a potential anti-China bloc."

China’s decades-long economic boom has led to a plethora of problems, mainly pollution.

Preoccupied by such issues, it is unsurprising that the country's leaders have shrugged off the new ranking as just another announcement.

"After all, just the choking smog that routinely blankets a third of the landmass of China is powerful enough to remind ourselves that China is still way behind in terms of the quality of daily life," Zha Daojiong, a professor of international political economy at Peking University, said in a report in ChinaFile, an online magazine about China published by the New York-based Asia Society’s Center on U.S.-China Relations.

Mechanism

Some economists feel using PPP is not necessarily the best way to gauge the country's growth.

PPP calculates GDP using exchange rates that adjust for price differences of the same goods between nations.

Based on another comparison, which looks at GDP in U.S. dollars at market exchange rates, China is well behind the U.S.

"The International Comparison Program has gone off the rails," said Derek Scissors, a scholar at the Washington-based American Enterprise Institute.

"It doesn’t make sense to compare two countries’ PPP-adjusted GDP and say one is larger. Not for any countries at any time," he said in ChinaFile, where economists debated China's place in the global GDP rankings following the World Bank report.

Scissors said that the right measure of economic size is national wealth.

China's private wealth is still about U.S. $35 trillion behind the United States, he said, adding that the gap between the two powers has not closed in the past three years, as the U.S. emerged from the crisis and Chinese firms borrowed heavily. "Plainly, China won’t catch up soon. It may not catch up at all," he said.

But others say it shouldn't come as a surprise that China would soon overtake the U.S. in sheer economic size.

"If one doesn’t accept the current PPP conversion rate, then just wait five or ten years and China will be bigger at market exchange rates," said Arthur Kroeber, Managing Director of GaveKal Dragonomics, an independent global economic research firm, and Editor of its journal, China Economic Quarterly.

"But basically, all that this shift tells us is that China has way more people than the U.S.— 4.2 times as many, to be exact. So, as soon as China stopped being fantastically poorer (per capita) than the U.S., and became simply a lot poorer, its total economy surpassed that of the U.S."

Misleading

Using PPP to value goods and services can be misleading when comparing the real costs of, for example, the military power of two countries, some economists say.

"That's a function of the economy measured at market exchange rates because everything that goes into a modern military hardware—whether it's aircraft, ships or other sophisticated things—is already priced at international prices," said Lardy of Peterson Institute of International Economics.

"The fact that you can get a cheaper hair cut out in the countryside in Hunan province doesn't help you deploy a more sophisticated military system because the [components] that go into the sophisticated military hardware are all priced at international prices," he said.

Krober dismissed some headlines that have declared China the world’s “top economic power” following the World Bank report.

"This is simply false. It is the biggest national economy by volume. But the center of technological change in the world is still the U.S., and arguably the United States’ centrality in this role is even more pronounced now than it was ten or fifteen years ago," he said.

"There is little evidence that China is anywhere close to becoming the engine-room of the global economy."

 
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