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one-time highflux is now lowflux - may go belowflux

frenchbriefs

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
Hyflux is quite unlike other companies. It is dealing with a strategic resource for Singapore. I don't think Hyflux will become bankrupt. There will be a white knight for the company. Can't say the same for the shareholders though.

when u see a human naked body u might think to yourself,what about it?its just another naked body like any others........nothing can be further from the truth,what u see before you is but a empty husk wuthering away from the 3rd stage cancer cells from within,its nothing more than the walking dead,pale grey saggy flesh hanging from their necks and arms like emperor palpatine,a gaping hole where the organs used to be.....the company that onced built strategic resource for Singapore is long gone.....all that is left is to give it merciful euthanasia and salvage whatever gems there is left.
 

Hangover

Alfrescian
Loyal
Important Sharing:
https://www.ocbc.com/assets/pdf/cre...ltd special interest commentary (24 may).pdf

Dividends to CPS are subject to reduction or non-payment if HYF has insufficient Distributable Reserves (amounts available to the issuer for distribution as a dividend in compliance with Section 403 of the Companies Act). HYF faces a perpetual distribution in end-May 2018 amounting to SGD15.0mn and HYF has announced that it will not be paying out that distribution. HYF has shared that it will only make payments that are critical to the continued operations of the group’s business. However, we note that HYF’s perpetual documentation contains a dividend pusher with a lookback period of six months and HYF had paid a dividend-in-specie in February 2018. Nonetheless, we believe that the non-payment of this May 2018 distribution does not constitute an event of default. In any case, this has now become a moot point given that HYF is protected from creditor demands due to the moratorium.

(If I interpret correctly, the last dividend for Hyflux Perpetual 2020 is withheld because of the moratorium, it is likely to be paid eventually.)


Good chance for Tuaspring to be sold eventually, key question is when and at what price: In our view, there is a good chance for Tuaspring to be sold as the water portion of the plant is highly strategic. Tuaspring’s water capacity is 2.3x that of SingSpring while the capacity on each of the three upcoming water plants is about the size of SingSpring. The key uncertainty is timing and pricing. Given the challenging market landscape, we are not optimistic that HYF would be able to sell Tuaspring as a whole (versus separating the water and power components) and at book value (we note from media reports that HYF was seeking to monetise Tuaspring at book value). As at 31 March 2018, the net book value of Tuaspring was SGD907.5mn (asset held for sale less liabilities held for sale). While the concession agreements are non-public, power is a liberalised sector in Singapore with no restrictions for foreign buyers. It is likely though on an asset-level, that there could be ownership restrictions (or regulatory approval required) for the sale of the water portion. There are no foreign ownership restrictions on HYF at the company level.

The situation at HFY is fluid and highly dependent on how much sustainable debt HFY can afford to carry on its balance sheet post-restructuring. We assume that principal lenders are willing to come to the table and partake in a debt restructuring scenario given that HFY holds strategic assets and additionally have assets which are valuable only if the business continues to be in operations (eg: HFY is sitting on SGD1.2bn of service concession receivables in addition to Tuaspring).


(Three points from above, electrical assets can be owned by foreigners:
1. The concession agreement is worth a lot of money. ($1.2bn + Tuaspring)
2. There is no restriction over the ownership of power assets but Tuaspring includes water assets that might have some restrictions.
3. Foreigners are keen to swallow Hyflux, as mentioned in earlier rumours, Change-of-Control is likely to take place.
 

SNTCK

Alfrescian
Loyal
Important Sharing:
https://www.ocbc.com/assets/pdf/credit research/special reports/2018/ocbc asia credit - hyflux ltd special interest commentary (24 may).pdf

Dividends to CPS are subject to reduction or non-payment if HYF has insufficient Distributable Reserves (amounts available to the issuer for distribution as a dividend in compliance with Section 403 of the Companies Act). HYF faces a perpetual distribution in end-May 2018 amounting to SGD15.0mn and HYF has announced that it will not be paying out that distribution. HYF has shared that it will only make payments that are critical to the continued operations of the group’s business. However, we note that HYF’s perpetual documentation contains a dividend pusher with a lookback period of six months and HYF had paid a dividend-in-specie in February 2018. Nonetheless, we believe that the non-payment of this May 2018 distribution does not constitute an event of default. In any case, this has now become a moot point given that HYF is protected from creditor demands due to the moratorium.

(If I interpret correctly, the last dividend for Hyflux Perpetual 2020 is withheld because of the moratorium, it is likely to be paid eventually.)


Good chance for Tuaspring to be sold eventually, key question is when and at what price: In our view, there is a good chance for Tuaspring to be sold as the water portion of the plant is highly strategic. Tuaspring’s water capacity is 2.3x that of SingSpring while the capacity on each of the three upcoming water plants is about the size of SingSpring. The key uncertainty is timing and pricing. Given the challenging market landscape, we are not optimistic that HYF would be able to sell Tuaspring as a whole (versus separating the water and power components) and at book value (we note from media reports that HYF was seeking to monetise Tuaspring at book value). As at 31 March 2018, the net book value of Tuaspring was SGD907.5mn (asset held for sale less liabilities held for sale). While the concession agreements are non-public, power is a liberalised sector in Singapore with no restrictions for foreign buyers. It is likely though on an asset-level, that there could be ownership restrictions (or regulatory approval required) for the sale of the water portion. There are no foreign ownership restrictions on HYF at the company level.

The situation at HFY is fluid and highly dependent on how much sustainable debt HFY can afford to carry on its balance sheet post-restructuring. We assume that principal lenders are willing to come to the table and partake in a debt restructuring scenario given that HFY holds strategic assets and additionally have assets which are valuable only if the business continues to be in operations (eg: HFY is sitting on SGD1.2bn of service concession receivables in addition to Tuaspring).


(Three points from above, electrical assets can be owned by foreigners:
1. The concession agreement is worth a lot of money. ($1.2bn + Tuaspring)
2. There is no restriction over the ownership of power assets but Tuaspring includes water assets that might have some restrictions.
3. Foreigners are keen to swallow Hyflux, as mentioned in earlier rumours, Change-of-Control is likely to take place.

This one too complicated and I read till headache.
Then important is got money redeem CPS mah.?
 

Hangover

Alfrescian
Loyal
This one too complicated and I read till headache.
Then important is got money redeem CPS mah.?

Hyflux's asset valuation is 50% higher than their debts, so rightfully they have money to redeem. However creditor banks might be trying to snatch strategic assets (eg. let Maybank control Tuaspring's desalination facilities) by taking of the tight cashflow situation to confiscate them from Hyflux.

Buyers are willing to pay proper valuations for the water assets of Tuaspring because the returns are safe and payout is better than government debts or bonds. However, rightfully, Tuaspring's electrical assets are almost worthless because of their continued losses (unless electrical prices recover).

Olivia made the promise to pay preference shares after selling Tuaspring, so Maybank buay song because Maybank wanted to be paid first before paying of the preference shares.

Maybank and AmFraser has been strangling local listed companies hoping to take over them.
 

SNTCK

Alfrescian
Loyal
Hyflux's asset valuation is 50% higher than their debts, so rightfully they have money to redeem. However creditor banks might be trying to snatch strategic assets (eg. let Maybank control Tuaspring's desalination facilities) by taking of the tight cashflow situation to confiscate them from Hyflux.

Buyers are willing to pay proper valuations for the water assets of Tuaspring because the returns are safe and payout is better than government debts or bonds. However, rightfully, Tuaspring's electrical assets are almost worthless because of their continued losses (unless electrical prices recover).

Olivia made the promise to pay preference shares after selling Tuaspring, so Maybank buay song because Maybank wanted to be paid first before paying of the preference shares.

Maybank and AmFraser has been strangling local listed companies hoping to take over them.

I hope you are right. ThAnk you
 

Scrooball (clone)

Alfrescian
Loyal
Sinkie stocks really stink like hell. Suka suka apply for credit protection and suspend trading. Luckily I didn't buy Sinkie stocks.

With the exception of really shit situations such as Fannie Mae, USA stocks usually not so fucked up.
 
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