A century belonging to China may have arrived
KYLE CHAN
May 19, 2025
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For years, theorists have envisioned the advent of a “ Chinese Century ”: a world in which China eventually uses its vast economic and technological potential to surpass the United States and reshape the global balance of power so that it is centered on Beijing.
That century may have already arrived, and when historians look back, they will likely point to the first few months of President Trump’s second term as a watershed moment in which China pulled away and left the United States behind.
It mattered little that Washington and Beijing reached a temporary, fruitless truce in Mr. Trump’s trade war. The president’s immediate claim of victory only highlighted the fundamental problem facing his administration and the United States: a myopic focus on inconsequential skirmishes while it is losing the more critical war with China.
Trump is wreaking havoc on the pillars of American power and innovation. His tariffs are jeopardizing American companies’ access to global markets and supply chains. He is slashing public research funding, weakening our universities , and forcing talented researchers to consider leaving the United States for other countries He wants to scale back technology programs like clean energy and semiconductor manufacturing, and eliminate American soft power in large swaths of the globe.
China’s trajectory is very different.
China already leads the world in production of steel, aluminum, shipbuilding, batteries, solar, electric vehicles, wind turbines, drones, 5G equipment, consumer electronics, active pharmaceutical ingredients, and high-speed rail. By 2030, China is expected to account for 45% of global manufacturing, nearly half. Beijing is also very focused on winning the future: in March, it announced a 1 trillion yuan national venture capital fund to make long-term investments in cutting-edge technologies such as quantum computing and robotics, and increased the public research and development budget.
China's approach has achieved amazing results.
In January, when the Chinese startup Deepin launched its AI chatbot, many Americans suddenly realized that China could compete in the field of artificial intelligence. But there are many more “Sputnik moments” like this.
Trump’s political ally Elon Musk once made a joke of Chinese electric car maker BYD, but the company sold more cars worldwide last year than Tesla, is building new factories around the world , and in March was worth more than Ford, GM, and Volkswagen combined. China is leading the way in drug discovery, especially in cancer treatments, and in 2023 installed more industrial robots than the rest of the world combined. Semiconductors are the critical commodity of this century and China’s long-standing Achilles’ heel. Led by Huawei’s recent breakthrough, China is building a self-sufficient supply chain. Crucially, China’s strengths in these and other overlapping technologies are creating a virtuous cycle in which advances in multiple interconnected fields feed and enhance each other.
Yet Trump remains obsessed with tariffs. He doesn’t even seem to realize how big a threat China poses. Before the two countries announced last Monday that they had agreed to cut trade tariffs, Trump dismissed concerns that his previous sky-high tariffs on Chinese goods would leave American store shelves empty. Americans, he said, would just have to buy their kids a few fewer dolls — a narrative that cast China as a factory for toys and other cheap goods that is now completely outdated.
The United States needs to recognize that neither tariffs nor other trade pressures can make China abandon the state-led economic policies that have worked so well and suddenly adopt industrial and trade policies that Americans believe are fair. Instead, Beijing is doubling down on its state-led approach, focusing on achieving high-tech industrial dominance in a “Manhattan Project” style.
China faces daunting challenges, too. A prolonged downturn in the housing market continues to weigh on economic growth, though there are signs that the sector may finally be recovering. Longer-term challenges also loom, such as a shrinking workforce and an aging population. But skeptics have been predicting a peak in China’s economy and an inevitable decline for years, only to be proven wrong every time. Whether free-market advocates agree or not, the enduring strength of China’s state-led system, which can pivot, change policies, and reallocate resources at will to serve the country’s long-term interests, is now undeniable.
Trump’s blind obsession with short-term expedients like tariffs is actively undermining the foundations of American greatness while only accelerating the arrival of a world dominated by China.
If both countries continue on their current trajectory, China will likely eventually completely dominate high-end manufacturing, from cars and chips to MRI machines and commercial aircraft. The battle for AI supremacy will not be between the United States and China, but between Chinese high-tech cities such as Shenzhen and Hangzhou. As the preeminent world technological and economic superpower, Chinese factories will be spread all over the world, and supply chains will be reconfigured with China at the center.
https://cn.nytimes.com/opinion/20250519/china-us-trade-tariffs/
The United States, by contrast, could end up as a country in serious decline. Sheltered by tariff barriers, American companies will sell almost exclusively to domestic consumers. Loss of international sales will reduce corporate earnings, leaving them with less money to invest in their operations. As U.S. manufacturing costs rise, American consumers will be stuck with American products that are mediocre but more expensive than global products. Working families will face rising inflation and stagnant incomes. Traditional high-value industries such as auto manufacturing and pharmaceuticals have already gone to China; future important industries will go with them. Imagine a Detroit or Cleveland scenario across the country.
Avoiding this dire situation means making policy choices that should be obvious and already have bipartisan support—making them today: investing in research and development; supporting academic, technological, and corporate innovation; building economic ties with countries around the world; and creating a welcoming, attractive environment for international talent and capital. Yet the Trump administration is doing just the opposite in these areas.
Whether this century belongs to China or the United States is up to us.
But time is running out to change course.
