North Korea threatens to strike South if drill goes ahead

[GoFlyKiteNow]

North Korea says to strike South if drill goes ahead
Posted 2010/12/17 at 2:46 pm EST

SEOUL/BEIJING, Dec. 17, 2010 (Reuters) — North Korea said on Friday it would strike again at the South if a live-fire drill by Seoul on a disputed island went ahead, with an even stronger response than last month's shelling that killed four people.

North Korean official news agency KCNA issued the threat as South Korea prepared for firing drills on Yeonpyeong island near a disputed maritime border with the North for the first time since November's exchange of artillery fire.

"The strike will play out a more serious situation than on November 23 in terms of the strength and scope of the strike," KCNA said.

A leading South Korean defense analyst said he doubted the North would carry out its threat, which rattled financial markets, and South Korea's Defense Ministry said the exercise planned for December 18-21 would go ahead.

The North had said its November shelling was a response to South Korean "provocations" after an artillery battery on the island fired in what Seoul said was a routine drill.

North Korea's warning came after Seoul promised a more robust response to any further attacks on its territory. The shelling of the island was the first time since the Korean War that North Korea had attacked South Korean territory.

"They would have to be committing to a full-out war if they did that (struck again)," said Baek Seung-joo of the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, an expert on North Korea's military strategy.

"What's likely is they will do something as a face-saving action, such as firing their own artillery near the disputed waters," he said.

The Korean won currency fell slightly in offshore forward trading against the dollar, with the 1-month non-deliverable dollar/won forwards rising to as high as 1,159 soon after the news broke from around 1,155.
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[sukhoi-30]

North Korea again threatened to retaliate if South Korea proceed ahead today for a live artillery firing exercises in Yeongbeong Island.It also warned of a nuclear war if war breaks out between the North and South..This belligerent signal sends panic and fear among the South Korean population and a wariness of Pyongyang's threat by the US.

Previously dismissed as mere rhetoric, South Korea and the US are now taking Pyongyang threat rather seriously after the North shelled the Yeongbeong Island on 23rd Nov. The threat of a nuclear war especially have a chilling effect esp when the US exposed the North's ultra-modern Uranium enrichment capabilities and accepted the fact that North Korea is now a nuclear-armed state. Also, the earlier show of unity between the US, Seoul and Tokyo seems to have weakened down. The series of armed exercises seems also to fail in its objectives of detering the North. China stubbornly ,still stand by the side of the North despite wikileaks's reports and so are Russia. There was a spat between Seoul and Tokyo earlier when South Korea and its population protested strongly in reaction to Japanese PM suggestion of sending Japanese troops into South Korea in times of conflict.
These developments all caused a certain disunity among the 3 states strategy and embarrassed the US considerably.

The South Korean military dismissed the North's threat and vowed to go ahead with the artillery exercises. However, there was no reports of exercises taking place s stated. Seoul may have postphone the exercises in response of the North's angry threat. The US justified the exercises but did not argue for the exercises to take place. China has summoned the South Korean ambassador and Russia too has asked Seoul to refrain from further provocating Pyongyang.Mexico Governor Bill Richardson also caution on all sides to restrain themselves and urged Pyongyang to show likewise.

These recent development showed show hope that the conflict may be solved by peaceful means. The US and Seoul seems to have exhausted all its strategies and have failed in its objectives. It's military exercises seems to have provoke the North to take a even hardened stance instead of detering it. South Korea are also wary of Japan's real intention in supporting Seoul against Pyongyang. North Korea was also under tremendous pressure from Beijing and Russia to stop its belligerent attitude.

Let's hope bloodshed will be avoided in the Korean peninsula. A conflict will not only destroy the two Koreas but will bring major powers into a confrontation that one cannot even imagine how the consequences will be.