More U.S. Crude Goes to Europe
The volume of U.S. oil exports shipped to Europe continues to far exceed the total volume of Brent crude oil produced from the existing crude fields in the North Sea that underpin the Brent futures benchmark. This was one of the major reasons why WTI Midland was included as one of the delivery grades as it bolsters the total volume of crude that could be delivered under the Brent contract.
The latest volume shows that the U.S. exports around 1.8 million barrels per day, while total production for Brent crude oil grades sits at 650,000 barrels per day. This has been an ongoing directional trend since early 2022 and continues to reinforce the pricing role that the U.S. benchmark is playing for European market participants.
The Vortexa data shows that U.S. crude exports to Europe (all) reached around 2.2 million barrels per day in the 12-months to June 2024, this represents an increase of 23% year over year compared to the same period in 2023.
U.S. Crude Oil Trading Volumes Expand in European Hours
The inclusion of WTI into the Brent benchmark has drawn higher customer interest from outside the U.S. into WTI and this appears to be translating into a greater proportion of WTI futures volumes being traded in European hours.
CME Group data shows that the percentage of total volume in WTI has been rising since the inclusion of WTI Midland into the Dated Brent price. Over 35% of the total daily volumes in WTI crude oil futures traded outside the U.S. core hours in June 2024, an increase from 25% in January 2023. In volume terms, the June 2024 level equates to around 900,000 lots, an increase of 16% from the same period 12 months earlier. This also coincides with the timing of the formal introduction of WTI as a deliverable grade into the Dated Brent basket of crudes.
Risk exposure to U.S. crude prices from regions outside the U.S. is on the rise as grades like WTI Midland continue to play an outsized role on the global stage. As U.S. export cargoes have flowed in higher volumes, non-U.S. refiners and trading firms that may have traditionally relied on Brent to manage risk are much more focused on what is happening in both WTI and along the U.S. Gulf coast. CME Group futures markets for Argus-based WTI Midland and the Argus WTI Houston reflect this change, with open interest — the number of unsettled futures contracts — growing substantially.