Mr Tan Jee Say can win a GRC next GE !

[Reddog]

AMK unlikely. Watch out for Tanjong Pagar and Holland-Bukit Timah.

You tell this to the last mayor of Taipei, who was leading by over 10 points just before voting started. Then he lost. AMK safe; the ball is round my fren.

 

[Gotze]

AMK unlikely. Watch out for Tanjong Pagar and Holland-Bukit Timah.

If SDP is contesting there, unlikely to win in my opinion. SFP may still stand a chance provided TJS can keep his bloated ego under control and not create yet another personality-centric party which fools no one nowadays.

 

[AaronKwok]

................

long time no see......

 

[GoldenDragon]

TJS and his mates need to knock on doors. Be seen regularly. Start now. Follow what SL did.

 

[3_M]

To look at the issue from a more scientific perspective. Base on last GE result, a ragtag team from newly formed RP scored 30.67% in AMK. We can deduce that it consist overwhelmingly opposition supporters because no voters in their right mind would vote for such a team unless one is anti PAP. Hence the starting point for any opposition in AMK is at the 30% mark. What is needed is another 20% from the swing voters to make up 50%. If opposition can send in a decent team to AMK, getting above 40% shouldn't be a problem but winning is difficult because it PM ward and middleground voters will likely adopt a more cautious stance when comes to voting.

TP GRC big unknown since there is no baseline. Speaking to a few friends and people there doesn't potray the complete picture of the ground sentiment there. but they got 2 popular MP Indranee and Lily Neo. Opposition need to defeat these 2 before thinking of taking down TP GRC.

 

[jw5]

WP team contesting AMK GRC got 34% in GE 2006. Looks like that 30% is more or less solid.

TP GRC currently has no "anchor ministar", since boy scout keechiu is supposedly being parachuted out.

To look at the issue from a more scientific perspective. Base on last GE result, a ragtag team from newly formed RP scored 30.67% in AMK. We can deduce that it consist overwhelmingly opposition supporters because no voters in their right mind would vote for such a team unless one is anti PAP. Hence the starting point for any opposition in AMK is at the 30% mark. What is needed is another 20% from the swing voters to make up 50%. If opposition can send in a decent team to AMK, getting above 40% shouldn't be a problem but winning is difficult because it PM ward and middleground voters will likely adopt a more cautious stance when comes to voting.

TP GRC big unknown since there is no baseline. Speaking to a few friends and people there doesn't potray the complete picture of the ground sentiment there. but they got 2 popular MP Indranee and Lily Neo. Opposition need to defeat these 2 before thinking of taking down TP GRC.

 

[Belgarath]

To look at the issue from a more scientific perspective. Base on last GE result, a ragtag team from newly formed RP scored 30.67% in AMK. We can deduce that it consist overwhelmingly opposition supporters because no voters in their right mind would vote for such a team unless one is anti PAP. Hence the starting point for any opposition in AMK is at the 30% mark. What is needed is another 20% from the swing voters to make up 50%. If opposition can send in a decent team to AMK, getting above 40% shouldn't be a problem but winning is difficult because it PM ward and middleground voters will likely adopt a more cautious stance when comes to voting.

TP GRC big unknown since there is no baseline. Speaking to a few friends and people there doesn't potray the complete picture of the ground sentiment there. but they got 2 popular MP Indranee and Lily Neo. Opposition need to defeat these 2 before thinking of taking down TP GRC.

Any oppo party contesting AMK is doing the other oppo parties a favour. This is because it will force Pinky to deploy resources to AMK, as Pinky will want to gain as high a margin as possible to "prove" that his position as PM counts. The oppo parties can also claim that everyone regardless of where they are located is being given a choice to vote, even though the chance of winning may be negligible. Finally, if somehow the oppo party contesting AMK manages to gain a decent footing against the PM, it will greatly dent LHL's standing and credibility. That alone may be almost as bad a losing the seat outright and being forced to resign as PM.

BUT that being said, it would be MUCH preferred if more prominent and credible parties like WP, NSP and SFP take on AMK. If you leave it to 3rd rate or 4th rate nonsense parties like RP or SDA, all they'll do is make LHL look good.

 

[jw5]

No lah, he may retire, but he will never resign. NEVER!

The other parts fully and absolutely agree.

That alone may be almost as bad a losing the seat outright and being forced to resign as PM.

 

[Belgarath]

TP GRC big unknown since there is no baseline. Speaking to a few friends and people there doesn't potray the complete picture of the ground sentiment there. but they got 2 popular MP Indranee and Lily Neo. Opposition need to defeat these 2 before thinking of taking down TP GRC.

TP voters are generally conservative. Indranee and Lily Neo became popular because they are more "steady" in their character. Lily Neo also has carved a reputation for looking out for the poor. With PGP and other goodies, TP voters generally will want to vote in the PAP again. Pretty hard to take down TP in my opinion.

 

[yellowarse]

To look at the issue from a more scientific perspective. Base on last GE result, a ragtag team from newly formed RP scored 30.67% in AMK. We can deduce that it consist overwhelmingly opposition supporters because no voters in their right mind would vote for such a team unless one is anti PAP. Hence the starting point for any opposition in AMK is at the 30% mark. What is needed is another 20% from the swing voters to make up 50%. If opposition can send in a decent team to AMK, getting above 40% shouldn't be a problem but winning is difficult because it PM ward and middleground voters will likely adopt a more cautious stance when comes to voting.

Agree. The reason why I said AMK is unlikely to fall is because it's the PM's ward. Even the most unhappy of middle-ground voters will think twice about unseating the PM, especially in a country where no other party than the incumbent has ruled.

That said, anything above 40% is a moral victory for the opposition; it's sufficient to put the PM's mandate in question. 40% is definitely doable, with the right candidates and message and lots of ground work.