Matthias Chang warns Singapore default will trigger financial tsunami

[dysentry]

http://futurefastforward.com/feature-articles/3200

Look To The East For The Tsunami Wave, Not Europe - By Matthias Chang
By Matthias Chang
Thursday, 11 February 2010 20:25

This will be one of my shortest articles as it is written as a RED ALERT.

When I send out Red Alerts, it is a dire warning and a call for immediate action to protect your wealth (if there is any remaining).

Of late, I have been reading articles (some of which I have posted to the website) suggesting that Greece would be the trigger for the 2nd wave of the Global Tsunami. Obviously, if Greece defaults and goes belly up, it will have a disastrous effect, but not in the way that I see it.

There may be some manipulated “flight to safety to US dollars” (which itself is a dumb thing to do) in the short run. How can dollar be a currency haven when its value is total junk – toilet paper!

Such so-called “flight to safety” is a reflection of the intensity of the on-going currency warfare, principally between the Dollar and the Euro and skirmishes between the Dollar and the Yuan. But, this manipulation by the US global banks would not last and will be exposed for what it is – a global scam.

Since July last year, policy makers and so-called experts have relied on economic recovery in Asia to spur global growth and the resumption of the good times. Such thinking reflects a muddle mind.

Every economy in Asia is export-orientated and the domestic economies are just too small to take up the drastic fall in exports. Following Bernanke’s reckless lead, they have all jumped on the band wagon of quantitative easing – the printing of massive fiat monies (electronically or otherwise). Inflation has soared!

In an earlier posting to my website, I have indicated that there is a weak link holding up the Asian economies, and it is not China.


It is Singapore - touted by her US financial masters as an island of prosperity and financial stability. This is one of the biggest hoax since the collapse of Lehman Bros.

Singapore’s ratio of debt to GDP is a whopping 99.2 percent.

But no one seems to be taking any notice. Why are they making so much fuss over Greece, when Singapore is worse off?

If Singapore goes belly up, forget about any substantial growth in Asia to spur global recovery. Anyone who knows about the way business is done in the ASEAN region knows too well that if Singapore defaults, Indonesia will be the first to sink, followed rapidly by Thailand and Malaysia. The contagion will then spread to the rest of Asia. China will not be able to put out the fire.

China will survive the turmoil, but barely.

This is my nightmare scenario. And the second Tsunami is coming.

When?

After the failure of Europe to solve the problems of Greece, Spain and Portugal!

But money can be made from this madness.

SHORT THE SINGAPORE DOLLARS AND GET YOUR FUNDS OUT BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE.

 

[kingat33]

Is this Matthias in singapore or is he tired of living?

 

[dysentry]

should be in malaysia.

from some angles we do look like another ireland.

 

[boundThunter]

Matthias Chang was a high-level political secretary to Tun Mamak and privy to many secret papers. He had been proven right on many occasions.

Once again Mathias Chang proven right 100% — Dow closed below 7,000 today
By Matthias Chang
Tuesday, 03 March 2009, 08:16

In an article dated the 12th December 2008, entitled “Obama’s Last Gamble” which was posted to my website, I forecasted that at the earliest, by the end of December 2008 or at the latest by the end of the first quarter of 2009, the Dow will plunge below 7,000. I had also forecasted that just before the inauguration of Obama there will be a suckers’ rally that will continue for a short while soon after.

The Dow rallied some 800 points to reach 9,000 in the days leading to the inauguration of President Obama and since then it has swung back and forth but always downwards.

Today, the Dow has breached the critical level of 7,000!

Worst is yet to come.

Since 2006, I have been proven right time after time.

When the Dow was 14,000, I advised my friends that it will soon dive below 11,000. Further research showed that even at this level, it could not be sustained and I gave the call to short the Dow as it would plunge below 9,000. These facts can be verified in my books, The Shadow Money-Lenders and Will Barisan Nasional Survive Beyond 2010? published in early 2008 and the articles posted to this website!

Not one political / financial analyst in Malaysia dare make such calls. They were completely out of the loop, frolicking in La La land and telling fairy tales that a “new era of prosperity was on the horizon. Good times are here for good”. This was even after the collapse of Bear Stearns in 2007 and Lehman Bros in 2008. All these “famous” economists and feature writers of leading financial dailies could not see beyond their noses, and some of them even have a string of alphabets behind their names!

Many have asked me how I have been so accurate. I told them I have a crystal ball. And my crystal ball is MERE COMMON SENSE.

As I am not part of the vested-interest and have not indulged in frivolous gambling at the stock market and or the derivative casino, I could stand apart and look at the unfolding events objectively. Neither was I infected with the investment bankers’ virus – structured investment vehicles!

This is also a reflection of my legal training. As lawyers, we have to present objective truth to our clients and advise dispassionately the pros and cons of any situation.

The world’s financial system is in total disarray!

It is bankrupt!

It is the end of the era of Wall Street and City of London Global Ponzi Schemes.

And war is round the corner.

Who do you want to believe – the sleepy heads and blockheads on the 4th Floor of the Prime Minister’s Office, the so-called leading financial analysts or me?

All the statistics from Bank Negara are suspect. The Governor got it wrong so often it is an embarrassment. The same applies to the Treasury. I have stated that the GDP for 2009 will be zero or negative. The government has since revised its growth forecast downwards several times and will continue to do so in the future.

If you want to survive, continue to visit my website!

 

[Watchman]

 

[Watchman]

Singapore’s ratio of debt to GDP is a whopping 99.2 percent.

But no one seems to be taking any notice. Why are they making so much fuss over Greece, when Singapore is worse off?

If Singapore goes belly up, forget about any substantial growth in Asia to spur global recovery. Anyone who knows about the way business is done in the ASEAN region knows too well that if Singapore defaults, Indonesia will be the first to sink, followed rapidly by Thailand and Malaysia. The contagion will then spread to the rest of Asia. China will not be able to put out the fire.

China will survive the turmoil, but barely.

This is my nightmare scenario. And the second Tsunami is coming.

When?

After the failure of Europe to solve the problems of Greece, Spain and Portugal!

But money can be made from this madness.

SHORT THE SINGAPORE DOLLARS AND GET YOUR FUNDS OUT BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE.

You can continue to bail-out companies and give out job relief package and retraining for your cronies companies .

At the end of the day the poor men got a lousy job with minimum spending .

You can keep printing money to bail yourself out when our anger reach a point that we will have to boycott alot of areas for our own long term survivability .

What is it going to be ?

 

[deekopeh]

Can anyone pls explain in simple layman term as in what is Singapore’s ratio of debt to GDP?

 

[po2wq]

<h1 id="firstHeading" class="firstHeading">Debt-to-GDP ratio</h1>
<div id="bodyContent">
<h3 id="siteSub">From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia</h3>

<p>In <a href="/wiki/Economics" title="Economics">economics</a>, particularly <a href="/wiki/Macroeconomics" title="Macroeconomics">macroeconomics</a>, various <b>debt-to-GDP ratios</b> can be calculated. The most commonly used ratio is the <a href="/wiki/Government_debt" title="Government debt">Government debt</a> divided by the <a href="/wiki/Gross_Domestic_Product" title="Gross Domestic Product" class="mw-redirect">Gross Domestic Product</a> (GDP), which reflects the government's finances, while another common ratio is the <a href="/w/index.php?title=Total_debt&amp;action=edit&amp;redlink=1" class="new" title="Total debt (page does not exist)">total debt</a> to GDP, which reflects the nation as a whole's finance.</p>


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<h2><span class="editsection">[<a href="/w/index.php?title=Debt-to-GDP_ratio&amp;action=edit&amp;section=1" title="Edit section: Units">edit</a>]</span> <span class="mw-headline" id="Units">Units</span></h2>
<p>It is generally expressed as a percentage, but properly, has units of years, as below.</p>
<p>By <a href="/wiki/Dimensional_analysis" title="Dimensional analysis">dimensional analysis</a> these quantities are the ratio of a stock (with dimensions of Currency) by a flow (with dimensions of Currency/Time), so<sup id="cite_ref-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-0"><span>[</span>note 1<span>]</span></a></sup> they have dimensions of Time. With currency units of US Dollars (or any other currency) and time units of years (GDP per annum), this yields the ratio as having units of years, which can be interpreted as "the number of years to pay off debt, if all of GDP is devoted to debt repayment". This interpretation must be tempered by the understanding that GDP cannot be all devoted to debt repayment – some must be spent on survival, at the minimum, and in general only 5–10% will be devoted to debt repayment, even during episodes such as the <a href="/wiki/Great_depression" title="Great depression" class="mw-redirect">Great depression</a>, which have been interpreted as <a href="/wiki/Debt-deflation" title="Debt-deflation" class="mw-redirect">debt-deflation</a> – and thus actual "years to repay" is debt-to-GDP divided by "fraction of GDP devoted to repayment", which will generally be 10 times as long or more than simple debt-to-GDP.</p>

<h2><span class="editsection">[<a href="/w/index.php?title=Debt-to-GDP_ratio&amp;action=edit&amp;section=2" title="Edit section: Changes">edit</a>]</span> <span class="mw-headline" id="Changes">Changes</span></h2>
<p>The change in debt-to-GDP is approximately "net increase or (decrease) in debt as percentage of GDP"; for government debt, this is <a href="/wiki/Deficit" title="Deficit">deficit</a> or (<a href="/wiki/Economic_surplus" title="Economic surplus">surplus</a>) as percentage of GDP.</p>
<p>This is only approximate, as GDP changes from year to year, but generally year-on-year GDP changes are small (say, 3%), and thus this is approximately correct.</p>
<p>However, in the presence of significant <a href="/wiki/Inflation" title="Inflation">inflation</a>, <a href="/wiki/Deflation" title="Deflation">deflation</a>, or particularly <a href="/wiki/Hyperinflation" title="Hyperinflation">hyperinflation</a>, GDP may increase rapidly in nominal terms; if debt is nominal, then it will decrease rapidly.</p>

<h2><span class="editsection">[<a href="/w/index.php?title=Debt-to-GDP_ratio&amp;action=edit&amp;section=3" title="Edit section: Applications">edit</a>]</span> <span class="mw-headline" id="Applications">Applications</span></h2>
<p><strong style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 225);">Debt-to-GDP measures <a href="/wiki/Financial_leverage" title="Financial leverage" class="mw-redirect">financial leverage</a> of an economy; some economists, such as <a href="/wiki/Steve_Keen" title="Steve Keen">Steve Keen</a>, advocate using it as the key measure of a <a href="/wiki/Credit_bubble" title="Credit bubble" class="mw-redirect">credit bubble</a> (both its level and its change – particularly of <i>private</i> debt and <i>total</i> debt), and high levels of government debt (<i>public</i> debt) are widely decried as fiscal irresponsibility.</strong></p>

<p><strong style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 225);">One of the <a href="/wiki/Euro_convergence_criteria" title="Euro convergence criteria">Euro convergence criteria</a> was that government debt-to-GDP be below 60%.</strong></p>

<p>World Bank and IMF hold that “a country can be said to achieve external debt sustainability if it can meet its current and future external debt service obligations in full, without recourse to debt rescheduling or the accumulation of arrears and without compromising growth.” According to these two institutions, external debt sustainability can be obtained by a country “by bringing the net present value (NPV) of external public debt down to about 150 percent of a country’s exports or 250 percent of a country’s revenues.” <a href="http://www.internationalmonetaryfund.com/external/np/hipc/2001/lt/042001.pdf" class="external autonumber" rel="nofollow">[1]</a> High external debt is believed to have harmful effects on an economy.<sup id="cite_ref-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-1"><span>[</span>1<span>]</span></a></sup></p>
<p>There is difference between external debt nominated in domestic currency, and external debt nominated in foreign currency. Nations can service external debt nominated in domestic currency by tax revenues, but to service foreign currency debt they have to convert tax revenues in foreign exchange market to foreign currency, which puts downward pressure on the value of their currency. So all of the money used to service foreign currency debt has to come from country's <a href="/wiki/Balance_of_payments" title="Balance of payments">balance of payments</a> transfers.</p>