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The ‘Warren Buffett Indicator’ has surged above 200%, meaning the market’s price is far ahead of the economy’s size
Ashley LutzWed, 1 October 2025 at 4:52 AM SGT
3 min read
The “Warren Buffett Indicator” is a simple yardstick that compares the total U.S. stock market’s value to the size of the U.S. economy. It’s recently surged above 200%, a level Buffett once warned is like “playing with fire,” signaling stretched valuations versus economic output. It’s soared because market values have risen far faster than GDP, driven by mega-cap gains and optimism, pushing the ratio to roughly 217%—well above long-term norms and prior peaks—suggesting elevated risk if profits or growth don’t keep up.
What the Indicator is
- It’s the ratio of total U.S. stock market capitalization (often proxied by the Wilshire 5000) divided by U.S. GDP, giving a quick read on whether stocks look expensive relative to the economy’s size.
- Buffett popularized it two decades ago, calling it “probably the best single measure” of broad market valuation at a point in time, which is why it carries his name today.
Why it’s above 200%
- Current estimates put the ratio around 217% as of mid‑2025, far above its historical trend and prior highs, implying stocks have grown much faster than the economy itself.
- Elevated readings reflect powerful runs in large-cap names and AI‑related enthusiasm, which lift market cap faster than GDP expands: A setup that can be fragile if earnings or growth slow.
How to read it, in plain terms
- Think of it as a price tag for the whole stock market compared to America’s economic “paycheck;” when the price tag is double the paycheck, expectations are sky-high and disappointments can sting more.
- Historically, very high ratios have coincided with later periods of weaker returns, but timing is tricky—markets can stay expensive for a while, so it’s a caution sign, not a countdown clock.
- The ratio has limits: Many big U.S. companies earn a lot overseas, interest rates and profit margins matter, and the series can stay elevated during long bull markets, so it’s best used alongside other metrics.
- Still, crossing 200% is unusual and underscores future returns may be lower if multiples compress or growth cools, echoing Buffett’s long-standing preference for value and margin of safety.
