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https://www.stratfor.com/image/managing-fractured-philippines
New Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte surged to victory promising a ruthless campaign against the country's myriad social ills, and he is proving to have a healthy appetite for a fight. Since taking office in June, he has unleashed a campaign of vigilante violence against drug dealers and publicly threatened senior politicians, military leaders and business tycoons suspected of involvement in the trade. The multifront offensive is heavy on populist theatrics, but there is method to Duterte's apparent madness that reflects the country's core geopolitical imperatives.
The Philippines has always been an exceedingly difficult place to govern. A mountainous archipelago of more than 7,000 islands, the country can be divided roughly into three island clusters, each with differing levels of economic development, cultural identities and internal ethnic fractures. The northern island grouping, Luzon, is inhabited primarily by ethnic Tagalog, who migrated from China and Southeast Asia. This region's economic and cultural connections stretch primarily north to mainland Asia. Nearly 1,600 kilometers (1,000 miles) south is the restive region of Mindanao, home to a complicated patchwork of rival clans and ethnic groups, including Muslim Moros. Most of these have far more in common culturally and ethnically with Indonesia and Malaysia than with the northern Philippine islands. The linchpin of the nation is a region known as the Visayas, home to the country's largest ethnic group, the Visayans.
In the modern era, all Philippine central governments have struggled to enforce their writ over this fractured landscape, particularly in the country's outlying regions. Clans, oligarchs, industry barons and militias still hold local power over political, business and security matters. These local stakeholders weaken institutions and undermine law and order, yielding a decentralized political system in which Manila struggles to carry out the critical functions of governance. This, in turn, deters foreign investment and economic development, fueling the cycle of instability. Decentralization and a weak government also undermine border security. The Philippines' position along major sea lanes makes it a natural transshipment point for black market flows. This is compounded by proximity to far-flung, loosely governed regions of Malaysia and Indonesia. The resulting dynamic is simple: Drugs and weapons flow in; natural resources and untaxed exports flow out.
The new president has thus inherited the Philippines' two core geopolitical imperatives. The first is to unite the disparate islands under a central authority. Success here is critical to fulfilling the second: securing the territorial integrity of the Philippines. Duterte's war on social ills plays into both of these. To project power across the fragmented string of islands and address the numerous internal and external threats to the country, the president is moving quickly to dislodge what he sees as obstacles to his administration's authority. Nonetheless, Duterte's willingness to make enemies is liable to spark major instability.
New Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte surged to victory promising a ruthless campaign against the country's myriad social ills, and he is proving to have a healthy appetite for a fight. Since taking office in June, he has unleashed a campaign of vigilante violence against drug dealers and publicly threatened senior politicians, military leaders and business tycoons suspected of involvement in the trade. The multifront offensive is heavy on populist theatrics, but there is method to Duterte's apparent madness that reflects the country's core geopolitical imperatives.
The Philippines has always been an exceedingly difficult place to govern. A mountainous archipelago of more than 7,000 islands, the country can be divided roughly into three island clusters, each with differing levels of economic development, cultural identities and internal ethnic fractures. The northern island grouping, Luzon, is inhabited primarily by ethnic Tagalog, who migrated from China and Southeast Asia. This region's economic and cultural connections stretch primarily north to mainland Asia. Nearly 1,600 kilometers (1,000 miles) south is the restive region of Mindanao, home to a complicated patchwork of rival clans and ethnic groups, including Muslim Moros. Most of these have far more in common culturally and ethnically with Indonesia and Malaysia than with the northern Philippine islands. The linchpin of the nation is a region known as the Visayas, home to the country's largest ethnic group, the Visayans.
In the modern era, all Philippine central governments have struggled to enforce their writ over this fractured landscape, particularly in the country's outlying regions. Clans, oligarchs, industry barons and militias still hold local power over political, business and security matters. These local stakeholders weaken institutions and undermine law and order, yielding a decentralized political system in which Manila struggles to carry out the critical functions of governance. This, in turn, deters foreign investment and economic development, fueling the cycle of instability. Decentralization and a weak government also undermine border security. The Philippines' position along major sea lanes makes it a natural transshipment point for black market flows. This is compounded by proximity to far-flung, loosely governed regions of Malaysia and Indonesia. The resulting dynamic is simple: Drugs and weapons flow in; natural resources and untaxed exports flow out.
The new president has thus inherited the Philippines' two core geopolitical imperatives. The first is to unite the disparate islands under a central authority. Success here is critical to fulfilling the second: securing the territorial integrity of the Philippines. Duterte's war on social ills plays into both of these. To project power across the fragmented string of islands and address the numerous internal and external threats to the country, the president is moving quickly to dislodge what he sees as obstacles to his administration's authority. Nonetheless, Duterte's willingness to make enemies is liable to spark major instability.
