https://www.washingtonpost.com/opin...70f78c156e8_story.html?utm_term=.144406695ac2
Previous presidents were smart enough not to insist on getting their own way every single time. As a result, nations were generally willing to live with norms and structures that kept the United States in the lead; they trusted the United States not to exploit their deference to squeeze them for every last dollar (or euro, or yen). They believed the United States would consider its own national interest but also global stability and not take advantage of others at every possible turn.
Now, Trump is squeezing, and, not surprisingly, he is getting results, or at least the appearance of results. Many of the structures that enable U.S. power and leave allies vulnerable can’t be altered overnight. Trump, therefore, can imagine himself a brilliant negotiator.
But while they placate and play for time, the nations of the world also are learning a lesson. Japan is beginning to rethink its security posture so that it won’t have to depend on the United States. As my colleague Fareed Zakaria noted last week, Europe is developing new payment mechanisms to avoid reliance on the dollar. French President Emmanuel Macron has called for a “true, European army” that would minimize the importance of NATO — and, with it, the United States.
These changes will take time. Whether they improve the world will be debated; I have my doubts, but certainly many people would welcome seeing the Chinese yuan challenge the U.S. dollar for preeminence, and some might think the world a more stable place if Japan and Saudi Arabia developed their own nuclear arsenals.
What won’t be debatable is the diminution of U.S. influence. Once these norms and structures are changed — and they will change, especially if the Trump era lasts through 2024 — there will be no going back.
By 2050, seven-eighths of the world economy will be produced outside the United States, and 24 of every 25 people in the world will not be Americans. If a U.S. president then tries to exert influence, foreign leaders may feel free to tell him or her to go take a hike.
At that point, Americans may think back to the Trump presidency, and it won’t be with nostalgia.
Previous presidents were smart enough not to insist on getting their own way every single time. As a result, nations were generally willing to live with norms and structures that kept the United States in the lead; they trusted the United States not to exploit their deference to squeeze them for every last dollar (or euro, or yen). They believed the United States would consider its own national interest but also global stability and not take advantage of others at every possible turn.
Now, Trump is squeezing, and, not surprisingly, he is getting results, or at least the appearance of results. Many of the structures that enable U.S. power and leave allies vulnerable can’t be altered overnight. Trump, therefore, can imagine himself a brilliant negotiator.
But while they placate and play for time, the nations of the world also are learning a lesson. Japan is beginning to rethink its security posture so that it won’t have to depend on the United States. As my colleague Fareed Zakaria noted last week, Europe is developing new payment mechanisms to avoid reliance on the dollar. French President Emmanuel Macron has called for a “true, European army” that would minimize the importance of NATO — and, with it, the United States.
These changes will take time. Whether they improve the world will be debated; I have my doubts, but certainly many people would welcome seeing the Chinese yuan challenge the U.S. dollar for preeminence, and some might think the world a more stable place if Japan and Saudi Arabia developed their own nuclear arsenals.
What won’t be debatable is the diminution of U.S. influence. Once these norms and structures are changed — and they will change, especially if the Trump era lasts through 2024 — there will be no going back.
By 2050, seven-eighths of the world economy will be produced outside the United States, and 24 of every 25 people in the world will not be Americans. If a U.S. president then tries to exert influence, foreign leaders may feel free to tell him or her to go take a hike.
At that point, Americans may think back to the Trump presidency, and it won’t be with nostalgia.
