https://www.interest.co.nz/bonds/92...suance-starts-week-support-widening-us-fiscal
A heavy wave of US T-bill and Treasury bond issuance starts week to support widening US fiscal deficit. Bid-cover lowest in a decade, foreign central banks buying
Posted in Bonds February 21, 2018 - 08:25am, Jason Wong
By Jason Wong
In a slow start to the week, US Treasury yields have drifted higher, helping support the USD while the NZD is mixed on the crosses.
With the US public holiday on Monday and a lack of key economic releases, it has been a fairly slow start to the week. The market has been focused on the heavy wave of US T-bill and Treasury bond issuance this week – the start of a permanent increase in supply, as the Fed gradually reduces the size of its balance sheet and the US fiscal deficit widens significantly from here.
With not much else going on, this saw US Treasury yields drift higher during the Asian trading session, up to a high of 2.925% last night, drifting back down to 2.89% just ahead of the 3-mth and 6-mth T-bill auction before drifting back up to the current 2.91%. Bid-cover for the 3-month auction wasn’t great but it improved for the 6-mth auction, with signs of foreign central bank buying.
Related Topics
BondsOCRUS$AU$YenEuroCADNOKECBYuanNZ$FOMCVIXCredit RatingsNick Smyth
In economic news, Sweden’s underlying CPI figure for January came in 0.2 percentage points lower than expected at 1.7%, dowsing expectations for a rate hike anytime soon and making SEK the weakest of the major currencies, down 1% overnight and 1.3% lower since this time yesterday. The lack of inflation for an economy that has been traveling pretty well, supported by a cheap real exchange rate, negative interest rates, quantitative easing and a booming housing market is telling. It supports the view that some global disinflationary impulse is at work, something that applies when we look at a lot of other countries. It might well have been coincidental, but the timing of that release matched the peak in US 10-year yields overnight and German bund yields. The data certainly give some food for thought about the inflation outlook ahead for other countries.
In the day ahead, there’ll be some focus on Australia wage data, with some pick-up required to awake the RBA from its neutral policy stance.
Markit PMIs for the US and euro area are expected to remain strong, indicative of the strong global growth pulse. The Fed’s Harker (non-voter) speaks while the BoE’s top brass, including Governor Carney speak in London tonight.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...d-market-braces-for-supply-wave-idUSKCN1G20UH
Jittery U.S. bond market braces for supply wave
Richard Leong
3 Min Read
FILE PHOTO: The Federal Reserve headquarters in Washington September 16 2015. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque/File Photo
The Treasury Department began ramping up its debt issuance earlier this month to fund the expected growth in borrowing tied to the biggest tax overhaul in 30 years and a two-year federal spending package.
Last year’s tax reform is expected to add as much as $1.5 trillion to the federal debt load, while the budget agreement would increase government spending by almost $300 billion over the next two years.
Analysts worry the combination of a rising budget deficit, faster inflation and more Fed rate increases have ratcheted up the risk of owning Treasuries.
Those concerns pushed benchmark 10-year Treasury yields US10YT=RR up to 2.944 percent, a four-year peak last week, Reuters data showed.
Treasury bill and two-year yields US2Y=RR have reached their highest level in more than nine years.
The five-year Treasury yield US5YT=RR is hovering at its highest levels in nearly eight years, while seven-year yield US7YT=RR climbed to levels not seen since April 2011.
The increase in U.S. yields may entice investors seeking steady income in the wake of the rollercoaster sessions on Wall Street and other stock markets this month, analysts said.
“While the rise in yields could draw additional demand, investors have remained very picky on where they decide to buy front-end rates,” TD Securities strategists wrote in a note.
“We therefore look for relatively cautions demand at this week’s auction series even as we view the 2-year part of the curve as relatively attractive,” they added.
(For a graphic on U.S. Treasury bill, short-to-medium term note yields, click reut.rs/2BELNTs)
The heavy Treasury supply will kick off on Tuesday with $151 billion worth of bills including record amounts of three-month and six-month T-bills.
The rest of the debt sales will spread over a holiday-shortened week with $28 billion of two-year fixed rate notes on Tuesday; $35 billion in five-year debt on Wednesday and $29 billion in seven-year notes on Thursday.
The Treasury Department also plans to add $15 billion to an older two-year floating-rate issue.
U.S. financial markets are closed on Monday for the Presidents Day holiday.
“As a point of clarification, we’re confident in the depth of demand for Treasuries -– the more relevant question is how much of an accommodation will be needed,” BMO Markets analysts said in a note.
(For a graphic on U.S. Treasury bill, short-to-medium term debt supply, click reut.rs/2C4XEeM)
A heavy wave of US T-bill and Treasury bond issuance starts week to support widening US fiscal deficit. Bid-cover lowest in a decade, foreign central banks buying
Posted in Bonds February 21, 2018 - 08:25am, Jason Wong
By Jason Wong
In a slow start to the week, US Treasury yields have drifted higher, helping support the USD while the NZD is mixed on the crosses.
With the US public holiday on Monday and a lack of key economic releases, it has been a fairly slow start to the week. The market has been focused on the heavy wave of US T-bill and Treasury bond issuance this week – the start of a permanent increase in supply, as the Fed gradually reduces the size of its balance sheet and the US fiscal deficit widens significantly from here.
With not much else going on, this saw US Treasury yields drift higher during the Asian trading session, up to a high of 2.925% last night, drifting back down to 2.89% just ahead of the 3-mth and 6-mth T-bill auction before drifting back up to the current 2.91%. Bid-cover for the 3-month auction wasn’t great but it improved for the 6-mth auction, with signs of foreign central bank buying.
Related Topics
BondsOCRUS$AU$YenEuroCADNOKECBYuanNZ$FOMCVIXCredit RatingsNick Smyth
In economic news, Sweden’s underlying CPI figure for January came in 0.2 percentage points lower than expected at 1.7%, dowsing expectations for a rate hike anytime soon and making SEK the weakest of the major currencies, down 1% overnight and 1.3% lower since this time yesterday. The lack of inflation for an economy that has been traveling pretty well, supported by a cheap real exchange rate, negative interest rates, quantitative easing and a booming housing market is telling. It supports the view that some global disinflationary impulse is at work, something that applies when we look at a lot of other countries. It might well have been coincidental, but the timing of that release matched the peak in US 10-year yields overnight and German bund yields. The data certainly give some food for thought about the inflation outlook ahead for other countries.
In the day ahead, there’ll be some focus on Australia wage data, with some pick-up required to awake the RBA from its neutral policy stance.
Markit PMIs for the US and euro area are expected to remain strong, indicative of the strong global growth pulse. The Fed’s Harker (non-voter) speaks while the BoE’s top brass, including Governor Carney speak in London tonight.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...d-market-braces-for-supply-wave-idUSKCN1G20UH
Jittery U.S. bond market braces for supply wave
Richard Leong
3 Min Read
FILE PHOTO: The Federal Reserve headquarters in Washington September 16 2015. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque/File Photo
The Treasury Department began ramping up its debt issuance earlier this month to fund the expected growth in borrowing tied to the biggest tax overhaul in 30 years and a two-year federal spending package.
Last year’s tax reform is expected to add as much as $1.5 trillion to the federal debt load, while the budget agreement would increase government spending by almost $300 billion over the next two years.
Analysts worry the combination of a rising budget deficit, faster inflation and more Fed rate increases have ratcheted up the risk of owning Treasuries.
Those concerns pushed benchmark 10-year Treasury yields US10YT=RR up to 2.944 percent, a four-year peak last week, Reuters data showed.
Treasury bill and two-year yields US2Y=RR have reached their highest level in more than nine years.
The five-year Treasury yield US5YT=RR is hovering at its highest levels in nearly eight years, while seven-year yield US7YT=RR climbed to levels not seen since April 2011.
The increase in U.S. yields may entice investors seeking steady income in the wake of the rollercoaster sessions on Wall Street and other stock markets this month, analysts said.
“While the rise in yields could draw additional demand, investors have remained very picky on where they decide to buy front-end rates,” TD Securities strategists wrote in a note.
“We therefore look for relatively cautions demand at this week’s auction series even as we view the 2-year part of the curve as relatively attractive,” they added.
(For a graphic on U.S. Treasury bill, short-to-medium term note yields, click reut.rs/2BELNTs)
The heavy Treasury supply will kick off on Tuesday with $151 billion worth of bills including record amounts of three-month and six-month T-bills.
The rest of the debt sales will spread over a holiday-shortened week with $28 billion of two-year fixed rate notes on Tuesday; $35 billion in five-year debt on Wednesday and $29 billion in seven-year notes on Thursday.
The Treasury Department also plans to add $15 billion to an older two-year floating-rate issue.
U.S. financial markets are closed on Monday for the Presidents Day holiday.
“As a point of clarification, we’re confident in the depth of demand for Treasuries -– the more relevant question is how much of an accommodation will be needed,” BMO Markets analysts said in a note.
(For a graphic on U.S. Treasury bill, short-to-medium term debt supply, click reut.rs/2C4XEeM)