Lucky Tan: Oppos Risk Losing Credibility Gained During GE2011 if Disunity Continues

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[h=2]Opposition politics gets messy in Punggol East By-Election[/h]

January 13th, 2013 |

Author: Contributions



While the PM was unexpectedly prompt in calling for an election, the PAP’s selection of its candidate, introduction of the candidate to the media and subsequent campaign activities have been very systematic. Dr. Koh quickly got down to the ground doing what an good candidate is expected to do. To market him well, they call him the “son of Punggol”. He was quickly seen visiting the stalled Rivervale project, a sore point among residents, meeting various stakeholders to assure them he would do what it takes to get the project going.


Things don’t have to be as messy as they appear to be on the opposition side. Even if they are disunited, all that is needed is for different parties to act rationally in their own best interest. The facts are not too difficult to grasp. Workers’ Party contested in the SMC with decent results in the 2011 elections. Riding the moral high ground after the recent AIMgate and Palm-gate, it’s chance of winning is very good and it is not reasonable to expect Workers’ Party to give up this opportunity to take up one more seat to add to the pressure it has put on the PAP on various issues. The recent proposal by SDP [Link] for WP not to participate in the by-election is ludicrous and self-damaging – they lost some of the credibility they gained during GE2011….the best thing they can do now is not to make things worse for themselves by joining a contest they will certainly lose due to lack of time to work the ground and be blamed for causing the loss of a seat that could have been won by another opposition party. Unfortunately, based on what they have done in recent days, I’m not sure if they are able to stop damaging their own reputation further.

“But given the mood change since, the ruling party will have a tougher time – if it is a two-party contest. If it faces the Workers Party alone, the PAP may likely lose.” – Seah Chiang Nee [Link]
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We start off with a roughly 50-50 situation in a direct contest between WP and PAP. You can’t say for sure who will win because it is hard to assess the swing votes but we know the swing will be in favor of WP because Palmer was far better known than Dr. Koh and things have not gotten better (for Punggol residents and Singaporeans) since the 2011 election. Starting with this, any additional opposition party that comes in to contest will chip away WP’s block of votes – the irony is the better quality their candidate, the bigger chunk they will take and the less likely an opposition candidate will win the seat.

“if we enter into (a three-cornered fight), we’re only going to kill ourselves. We’re not that stupid.” – Chiam See Tong, GE2006.
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Chiam See Tong’s party SPP and NSP have chosen to do the sensible thing to stay out of this contest. These are the 2 parties that came closest to winning parliament seats in GE2011 after the WP – with narrow defeats in Potong Pasir and Marine Parade GRC.

For the other parties, whatever their intentions are, their joining the contest will stop the WP from winning another seat without gaining anything but blame for helping the PAP retain its seat in Punggol East. Opposition supporters will be left with this feeling of “what could have been” and morn a wasted opportunity. We saw the end result of vote splitting in the Presidential Election, it is likely that Tan Cheng Bock would have won if the votes were not split. But nobody could have foreseen this close fight between Tan Cheng Bock and Tony Tan – you cannot blame the other presidential candidates for the missed opportunity because it was unpredictable. However, for this by election, we have baseline results from GE2011 so there is no excuse to hand PAP the victory by splitting the votes when the people of Punggol East actually want an opposition member of parliament.

To put it simply, the PAP will win in a 3- or 4- corner fight. The opposition parties joining the contest will walk off as losers – a defeat they inflict on themselves. Unless their goal is to stop the WP which they see as a rival, the decision to contest just makes no sense. If they are there to stop the WP, then these other parties are led by people whose intentions are not very clear. A stronger WP will pave the way for other opposition parties. The better WP performs, the stronger the proof that alternatives to PAP can perform well and that will help people to overcome their reservations about voting for alternatives. Other parties can choose to leverage on the success of WP to advance their own cause or they choose to turn this win-win situation into a lose-lose one. Perhaps, the biggest obstacle to the progress of opposition politics is not the PAP – these days they can’t seem to solve any of our problems and reverse the rising discontent – but the inability of personalities in opposition parties to make sensible decisions.
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Lucky Tan
Lucky Tan is an avid online blogger since 2005. He likes to study the thoughts of Singapore leaders and the laws of Singapore. He blogs at http://singaporemind.blogspot.com.

 

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Re: Lucky Tan: Oppos Risk Losing Credibility Gained During GE2011 if Disunity Continu

[h=2]SDP’s proposal – a message for voters outside Punggol East?[/h]

January 13th, 2013 |

Author: Contributions

The SDP proposed a joint campaign with WP in the coming by-election of Punggol East, whereby the candidate came from SDP; if victorious, the SDP candidate would enter Parliament to table motions and debate on policies while the WP would run the Punggol East Town Council.

It seemed to me that the “proposal” was intended to be a subtle message meant for voters all over Singapore rather than addressed to the WP. In fact, I even suspect it was targeted at voters outside of Punggol East constituency. In other words, I still hold the hope that SDP will not contest in the coming Punggol East’s by-election.

My interpretation of SDP’s message is: any opposition party can manage a town council, but not any opposition party can effectively fulfill its role in parliament. If you want to invest in gold, come to us because we are selling pure gold bars, not 916-gold or some 18K jewellery! At best, it was a message to voters marketing SDP’s product (or service) differentiation. At worst, it was telling voters of non-Punggol East constituency that the WP could only do the (town council) job delegated by the PAP well but not its expected roles in parliament.

Why was SDP’s message (or “proposal”) not phrased in a more straightforward or less subtle way? You have to ask Chee Soon Juan. My guess is SDP did not want to be seen as helping the PAP in attacking WP, especially if SDP had no intention of contesting Punggol East and did not want to give WP an excuse to ‘invade’ its territories in the next General Election.

What purpose would such a message serve? Again, if Chee Soon Juan refused to tell you, then I would guess that it was meant to be one of the defensive obstacles against WP’s future expansion plan, especially if the latter happened to win this by-election of Punggol East – a victory here would no doubt give WP’s expansion plan a steroid shot and encourage the party to force its way into other opposition parties’ territories.

It is hoped that SDP would not see any valuable benefit for itself in contesting the Punggol East’s By-election. If it goes in and the outcome is such that SDP is perceived (rightly or wrongly) as the cause to WP’s loss to the PAP, it will be a political disaster to SDP which is currently still at the beginning stage of recovering from an unjustifiable negative image inflicted on it by the PAP and its media. When it does happen, people will see the SDP as a saboteur and whatever negative labels the PAP used to give SDP in the past will sink further into voters’ mind. SDP will then have to carry a much worse image to future constituencies it contests.
Why always put the blame of multi-cornered fight on SDP or another opposition party, but not the WP? The answer is simple: the market (or voters at large) perceived it that way! Instead of arguing it out with the market, why not just avoid being blamed?
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Celia Lim
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[Pigsy]

At worst, it was telling voters of non-Punggol East constituency that the WP could only do the (town council) job delegated by the PAP well but not its expected roles in parliament.

Everyone is dying here. SDP and RP are just too impatient to fight PAP. They are also doing info gathering to test the market. They should know that a 3 corner fight is an oppo suicide.

 

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Re: Lucky Tan: Oppos Risk Losing Credibility Gained During GE2011 if Disunity Continu

http://www.sammyboy.com/showthread.php?140450-Straw-Poll-In-6-Corner-Fight-Your-Vote-Goes-to