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陳嘉宏專欄：這樣下去 柯文哲就會在半年後出來選總統
上報
2.3k 人追蹤
陳嘉宏
2018年12月14日 上午7:02
柯文哲會不會在半年後投入總統大選？如果民進黨繼續維持現在與柯陣營互動溝通模式，加上明年六月綠白藍三方的總統民調依舊是由柯文哲一枝獨秀，別懷疑，柯文哲屆時將義無反顧地投入總統大選，讓民進黨噩夢成真。
九合一大選後，柯文哲對於綠營的憤懣不滿溢於言表，「根本沒有棄保，選前一天蔡英文還去站姚文智的台」；陳佩琪更公開發文，對這次選舉的抹黑：「心頭湧上的恨意，永生難忘。」不過，民進黨高層沒操作棄保，並不代表民進黨的基層沒有自動棄保。柯文哲的得票數是58萬，丁守中57.7萬票，姚文智的得票數是24.5萬票，但民進黨議員總得票數40.8萬，遠高於姚文智票數。如果再用東奧正名的公投票來計算，正名公投在北市拿到55萬贊成票（即便扣掉18到20歲的年輕人也至少超過50萬），幾乎逼近柯文哲的得票數。換言之，不少綠營與獨派支持者，這次的確自主地投票給柯文哲。
也因此，不少獨派人士自我安慰說，這次選舉並非沒有收穫，至少挫了柯文哲銳氣，讓柯知道無法靠獨立投入總統大選…………儘管這種說法看似並非全然無理，但它完全忽略了當綠白之間進入了賽局理論裡的膽小鬼賽局時，雙方所背負的成本差異極大。這兩輛即將對撞的火車，「綠色號」駕駛就在坐在車頭，後頭還有滿滿超過十列的乘客，一旦出軌，不僅駕駛落河滅頂，十列車廂的乘客也幾乎不能倖存；「白色號」駕駛坐在車尾，但前面的車廂根本沒人，一旦對撞，不僅沒有死傷，幸運的駕駛或還能跳車逃生。
說得更白一點，面對明年的總統立委大選，柯文哲就是個單幹戶，要幹未嘗不可，搞不好真能撈到總統大位，不幹沒什麼損失，反正還可擔任首都市長繼續養望。但對民進黨可不一樣，不僅蔡英文政權性命攸關，還有七十幾席的立委綁在一起，真的對幹，民進黨這次史無前例地在北市掉了八席議員，縣市長得票率幾乎掉到30年前民進黨草創時期，就是殷鑑。
柯文哲其實就是個強烈自我中心、愛講酸話、不懂為別人留餘地，卻不被情感牽絆、永遠知道自己所訴求的選民在哪裡的非典型政治人物。但過去四年來，民進黨始終無法拿捏與柯文哲互動的方式，不僅被幾名深綠名嘴柯文哲的宿怨帶著走，還因一個「不決定」的總統兼黨主席讓情況一路惡化，終至分道揚鑣，直到現在選舉大敗了，顯然還繼續執迷不悟。
例如，選後的五席立委補選正是測試白綠合作的起手勢，但民進黨的領導人顯然繼續陷入黨內的派系勝負邏輯，無法大開大闔地帶領支持者突破格局。而蔡英文自己的敗選檢討自稱要「找回昔日的盟友」，但黨內柯黑議員繼續反其道而行；王世堅追著柯文哲打，因為他只要拿下該選區5％的選票就可確保他繼續選上台北市議員，但明年全是單一選區選舉，哪個民進黨候選人可以靠走偏鋒罵柯文哲選上總統立委？
在白綠合作這件事裡，雙方其實早已是一場不均衡的賽局；只是，從蔡英文、民進黨的操盤人，到綠營的支持者，顯然都還沒意識到局勢之險峻與惡劣，甚至繼續重蹈過去一年與柯文哲從合作走向決裂的覆轍。柯文哲早已好整以暇，倒是民進黨一路走向丢盔棄甲繼續大敗的自我實現預言。
※作者為《上報》總主筆
Chen Jiahong column: This way, Ke Wenzhe will come out to choose the president after half a year.
[report]
Report
2.3k person tracking
Chen Jiahong
December 14, 2018, 7:02 am
Will Ke Wenzhe enter the presidential election half a year later? If the DPP continues to maintain the current mode of interaction with the Ke camp, and the presidential poll of the green, blue and blue will continue to be dominated by Ke Wenzhe next June, Ko Wenzhe will then turn his back on the presidential election and let the DPP nightmare come true.
After the election of Jiuhe, Ke Wenzhe’s dissatisfaction with the Green Camp was overwhelming. "There was no abandonment of insurance. The day before, Tsai Ing-wen also went to stand in Yao Wenzhi's stage." Chen Peiqi made a public statement and smeared the election: "The hatred of the heart." Unforgettable forever." However, the DPP’s top management did not operate the abandonment of insurance. It does not mean that the DPP’s grassroots did not automatically abandon insurance. Ke Wenzhe's votes were 580,000, Ding Shouzhong's votes were 577,000, and Yao Wenzhi's votes were 245,000, but the DPP's total votes were 408,000, far higher than Yao Wenzhi's votes. If we use the public vote of the East Olympics to calculate, the name of the referendum won 550,000 in favor of the North City (even if the number of young people aged 18 to 20 is at least 500,000), almost approaching Ke Wenzhe's votes. In other words, many green camps and independent supporters, this time they voted autonomously to Ke Wenzhe.
Therefore, many independents have comforted themselves that this election is not without gains, at least frustrated Ke Wenzhe, letting Ke know that he can't rely on independent independence in the presidential election......... Although this statement does not seem to be completely unreasonable, it is completely Ignoring the difference between the cost of the two sides when the green and white entered the game of the timid game in the game theory. The two trains that are about to collide, the "Green" is sitting in the front of the car, and there are more than ten passengers in the back. Once derailed, not only will the driver fall off the river, but the passengers in the ten trains will barely survive; The "White" is sitting at the rear of the car, but there is no one in front of the car. Once it collides, not only is there no death or injury, but lucky driving or jumping to escape.
To be more white, in the face of next year's presidential general election, Ke Wenzhe is a single-handed household. If you want to do it, you can really get the president's position. If you don't lose anything, you can still serve as the mayor of the capital. . But it is different for the DPP. Not only is the Tsai English-speaking regime life-critical, but there are still more than 70 leg of legislators tied together. It’s really right. The DPP has lost eight seats in the North City, the county mayor. The vote rate almost fell to 30 years ago, when the DPP was in the grassroots period, it was Yin Jian.
Ke Wenzhe is actually a non-typical politician who is strongly self-centered, loves to talk, and does not know how to leave room for others, but is not bound by emotions and always knows where the voters he is seeking. But in the past four years, the DPP has been unable to grasp the way of interacting with Ke Wenzhe. Not only has it been taken away by several dark-skinned Ke Wenzhe’s grievances, but also because of a “no decision” president and party chairman, the situation has deteriorated all the way. To the parting ways, until the election was defeated, it is clear that he will continue to obsess.
For example, the election of the five-member legislators was the gesture of testing the cooperation between white and green, but the leaders of the DPP apparently continued to fall into the party’s factional victory and logic, and could not openly lead the supporters to break through the pattern. Tsai Ing-wen’s own defeated review claimed to “recover the old allies”, but the party’s Ke Kei-chan continued to do the opposite; Wang Shijian chased Ke Wenzhe because he only had to win 5% of the vote in the constituency. Make sure that he continues to be elected as a member of the Taipei City Council, but next year is a single constituency election. Which DPP candidate can rely on the slanting front and Ke Wenzhe to vote for the presidential legislator?
In the case of white-green cooperation, the two sides have long been an unbalanced game; only, from Tsai Ing-wen, the DPP’s trader, to the supporters of the Green Camp, they are clearly not aware of the prevailing situation. Bad, and even continue to repeat the mistakes of Ke Wenzhe from cooperation to break in the past year. Ke Wenzhe has already done a good job, but the DPP has gone all the way to the self-fulfilling prophecy of losing the squad and continuing to lose.
※The author is the chief editor of "Reporting"
陳嘉宏專欄：這樣下去 柯文哲就會在半年後出來選總統
上報
2.3k 人追蹤
陳嘉宏
2018年12月14日 上午7:02
柯文哲會不會在半年後投入總統大選？如果民進黨繼續維持現在與柯陣營互動溝通模式，加上明年六月綠白藍三方的總統民調依舊是由柯文哲一枝獨秀，別懷疑，柯文哲屆時將義無反顧地投入總統大選，讓民進黨噩夢成真。
九合一大選後，柯文哲對於綠營的憤懣不滿溢於言表，「根本沒有棄保，選前一天蔡英文還去站姚文智的台」；陳佩琪更公開發文，對這次選舉的抹黑：「心頭湧上的恨意，永生難忘。」不過，民進黨高層沒操作棄保，並不代表民進黨的基層沒有自動棄保。柯文哲的得票數是58萬，丁守中57.7萬票，姚文智的得票數是24.5萬票，但民進黨議員總得票數40.8萬，遠高於姚文智票數。如果再用東奧正名的公投票來計算，正名公投在北市拿到55萬贊成票（即便扣掉18到20歲的年輕人也至少超過50萬），幾乎逼近柯文哲的得票數。換言之，不少綠營與獨派支持者，這次的確自主地投票給柯文哲。
也因此，不少獨派人士自我安慰說，這次選舉並非沒有收穫，至少挫了柯文哲銳氣，讓柯知道無法靠獨立投入總統大選…………儘管這種說法看似並非全然無理，但它完全忽略了當綠白之間進入了賽局理論裡的膽小鬼賽局時，雙方所背負的成本差異極大。這兩輛即將對撞的火車，「綠色號」駕駛就在坐在車頭，後頭還有滿滿超過十列的乘客，一旦出軌，不僅駕駛落河滅頂，十列車廂的乘客也幾乎不能倖存；「白色號」駕駛坐在車尾，但前面的車廂根本沒人，一旦對撞，不僅沒有死傷，幸運的駕駛或還能跳車逃生。
說得更白一點，面對明年的總統立委大選，柯文哲就是個單幹戶，要幹未嘗不可，搞不好真能撈到總統大位，不幹沒什麼損失，反正還可擔任首都市長繼續養望。但對民進黨可不一樣，不僅蔡英文政權性命攸關，還有七十幾席的立委綁在一起，真的對幹，民進黨這次史無前例地在北市掉了八席議員，縣市長得票率幾乎掉到30年前民進黨草創時期，就是殷鑑。
柯文哲其實就是個強烈自我中心、愛講酸話、不懂為別人留餘地，卻不被情感牽絆、永遠知道自己所訴求的選民在哪裡的非典型政治人物。但過去四年來，民進黨始終無法拿捏與柯文哲互動的方式，不僅被幾名深綠名嘴柯文哲的宿怨帶著走，還因一個「不決定」的總統兼黨主席讓情況一路惡化，終至分道揚鑣，直到現在選舉大敗了，顯然還繼續執迷不悟。
例如，選後的五席立委補選正是測試白綠合作的起手勢，但民進黨的領導人顯然繼續陷入黨內的派系勝負邏輯，無法大開大闔地帶領支持者突破格局。而蔡英文自己的敗選檢討自稱要「找回昔日的盟友」，但黨內柯黑議員繼續反其道而行；王世堅追著柯文哲打，因為他只要拿下該選區5％的選票就可確保他繼續選上台北市議員，但明年全是單一選區選舉，哪個民進黨候選人可以靠走偏鋒罵柯文哲選上總統立委？
在白綠合作這件事裡，雙方其實早已是一場不均衡的賽局；只是，從蔡英文、民進黨的操盤人，到綠營的支持者，顯然都還沒意識到局勢之險峻與惡劣，甚至繼續重蹈過去一年與柯文哲從合作走向決裂的覆轍。柯文哲早已好整以暇，倒是民進黨一路走向丢盔棄甲繼續大敗的自我實現預言。
※作者為《上報》總主筆
Chen Jiahong column: This way, Ke Wenzhe will come out to choose the president after half a year.
[report]
Report
2.3k person tracking
Chen Jiahong
December 14, 2018, 7:02 am
Will Ke Wenzhe enter the presidential election half a year later? If the DPP continues to maintain the current mode of interaction with the Ke camp, and the presidential poll of the green, blue and blue will continue to be dominated by Ke Wenzhe next June, Ko Wenzhe will then turn his back on the presidential election and let the DPP nightmare come true.
After the election of Jiuhe, Ke Wenzhe’s dissatisfaction with the Green Camp was overwhelming. "There was no abandonment of insurance. The day before, Tsai Ing-wen also went to stand in Yao Wenzhi's stage." Chen Peiqi made a public statement and smeared the election: "The hatred of the heart." Unforgettable forever." However, the DPP’s top management did not operate the abandonment of insurance. It does not mean that the DPP’s grassroots did not automatically abandon insurance. Ke Wenzhe's votes were 580,000, Ding Shouzhong's votes were 577,000, and Yao Wenzhi's votes were 245,000, but the DPP's total votes were 408,000, far higher than Yao Wenzhi's votes. If we use the public vote of the East Olympics to calculate, the name of the referendum won 550,000 in favor of the North City (even if the number of young people aged 18 to 20 is at least 500,000), almost approaching Ke Wenzhe's votes. In other words, many green camps and independent supporters, this time they voted autonomously to Ke Wenzhe.
Therefore, many independents have comforted themselves that this election is not without gains, at least frustrated Ke Wenzhe, letting Ke know that he can't rely on independent independence in the presidential election......... Although this statement does not seem to be completely unreasonable, it is completely Ignoring the difference between the cost of the two sides when the green and white entered the game of the timid game in the game theory. The two trains that are about to collide, the "Green" is sitting in the front of the car, and there are more than ten passengers in the back. Once derailed, not only will the driver fall off the river, but the passengers in the ten trains will barely survive; The "White" is sitting at the rear of the car, but there is no one in front of the car. Once it collides, not only is there no death or injury, but lucky driving or jumping to escape.
To be more white, in the face of next year's presidential general election, Ke Wenzhe is a single-handed household. If you want to do it, you can really get the president's position. If you don't lose anything, you can still serve as the mayor of the capital. . But it is different for the DPP. Not only is the Tsai English-speaking regime life-critical, but there are still more than 70 leg of legislators tied together. It’s really right. The DPP has lost eight seats in the North City, the county mayor. The vote rate almost fell to 30 years ago, when the DPP was in the grassroots period, it was Yin Jian.
Ke Wenzhe is actually a non-typical politician who is strongly self-centered, loves to talk, and does not know how to leave room for others, but is not bound by emotions and always knows where the voters he is seeking. But in the past four years, the DPP has been unable to grasp the way of interacting with Ke Wenzhe. Not only has it been taken away by several dark-skinned Ke Wenzhe’s grievances, but also because of a “no decision” president and party chairman, the situation has deteriorated all the way. To the parting ways, until the election was defeated, it is clear that he will continue to obsess.
For example, the election of the five-member legislators was the gesture of testing the cooperation between white and green, but the leaders of the DPP apparently continued to fall into the party’s factional victory and logic, and could not openly lead the supporters to break through the pattern. Tsai Ing-wen’s own defeated review claimed to “recover the old allies”, but the party’s Ke Kei-chan continued to do the opposite; Wang Shijian chased Ke Wenzhe because he only had to win 5% of the vote in the constituency. Make sure that he continues to be elected as a member of the Taipei City Council, but next year is a single constituency election. Which DPP candidate can rely on the slanting front and Ke Wenzhe to vote for the presidential legislator?
In the case of white-green cooperation, the two sides have long been an unbalanced game; only, from Tsai Ing-wen, the DPP’s trader, to the supporters of the Green Camp, they are clearly not aware of the prevailing situation. Bad, and even continue to repeat the mistakes of Ke Wenzhe from cooperation to break in the past year. Ke Wenzhe has already done a good job, but the DPP has gone all the way to the self-fulfilling prophecy of losing the squad and continuing to lose.
※The author is the chief editor of "Reporting"
