Leong Sze Hian: "From a cashflow perspective, is it possible that the inflows to the state, may in some years, exceed the outflows...

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Leong Sze Hian: "From a cashflow perspective, is it possible that the inflows to the state, may in some years, exceed the outflows, for HDB, CPF and Healthcare ?"​

***From a cashflow perspective, is it possible that the inflows to the state, may in some years, exceed the outflows, for HDB, CPF and Healthcare?

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From a cashflow perspective, is it possible that the inflows to the state, may in some years, exceed the outflows, for HDB, CPF and Healthcare?

Answer:

"Yes, from a consolidated whole-of-government cashflow perspective, it is possible and often the case that total inflows exceed outflows for these specific sectors.

While individual statutory boards like HDB may report "accounting deficits," the broader state often sees a net cash surplus when considering internal transfers and total contributions.

1. Housing & Development Board (HDB)

HDB typically reports a multi-billion dollar annual deficit (e.g., S$6.34 billion in FY2024).

However, this is widely characterized as an "accounting deficit" rather than a cash loss for the State:

Internal Land Payments: A major expense for HDB is buying land from the Singapore Land Authority (SLA) at market value. In FY2024, HDB paid SLA S$9.29 billion for land.

Net Cash Surplus: When consolidated, the money moves from HDB (one "pocket") to SLA/Reserves (another "pocket").

After subtracting HDB's operating deficit from these land payments, the State reportedly saw a net positive cashflow of approximately S$2.95 billion from the public housing cycle in FY2024.

2. Central Provident Fund (CPF)

The CPF system consistently maintains a net cash inflow because annual member contributions and interest typically exceed total withdrawals:

Contribution vs. Withdrawal: In 2013, for example, contributions were S$28.53 billion while withdrawals were S$14.86 billion.

Recent Trends: As of December 2025, CPF balances reached S$661 billion, driven by steady contributions (e.g., S$14.0 billion in Q4 2025 alone) and credited interest.

Government Role: From a cashflow standpoint, the government does not "spend" on CPF; it manages the funds, which remain member-owned but contribute to the state's overall liquidity and investment base.

3. Healthcare

Healthcare is the sector most likely to see outflows eventually exceed specific inflows due to an aging population, though current specific cash flows can still show surpluses:

Inflow vs. Outflow: Past analyses (e.g., 2013/2014) indicated healthcare inflows of S$10.8 billion exceeded outflows of S$9.76 billion.

Rising Expenditure: Public healthcare spending is on a sharp upward trajectory, rising from S$9 billion in 2015 to an estimated S$21 billion in 2025.

It is projected to hit S$30 billion by 2030.

Sustainability: While specific insurance or Medisave funds might show annual surpluses, the overall Ministry of Health (MOH) budget is a significant and growing net expenditure for the government.*** www.moh.gov.sg

***Detailed below are the mechanisms behind HDB’s "accounting deficits" and the latest operational cash flow data for the CPF system.

1. HDB Land Cost Accounting & "Internal Transfers"

HDB's reported deficit is primarily a result of its unique accounting treatment for land, which characterizes internal transfers between government agencies as expenses.

Accounting Deficit vs. Cash Surplus: For Financial Year (FY) 2024, HDB reported a net deficit of S$6.34 billion. This figure is cited as the cost of making public housing affordable.

The Land Payment Mechanism: In the same period, HDB paid S$9.29 billion to the Singapore Land Authority (SLA) for the purchase of state land at "fair market value".

The "Two Pockets" Reality: Because both HDB and SLA are government entities, the S$9.29 billion moves from HDB’s books to the State's Past Reserves via SLA.

Consolidated Net Cash Flow: When viewed at the whole-of-government level, the housing cycle generated a net positive cash flow of approximately S$2.95 billion to S$2.99 billion in FY2024 (S$9.29B inflow from land sales minus HDB's S$6.34B operational deficit).

Rising Land Costs: Land expenses paid by HDB rose from S$7.53 billion in FY2023 to S$9.29 billion in FY2024, a 23.4% year-on-year increase.

2. CPF Contribution-to-Withdrawal Ratios

The CPF system remains a massive net absorber of cash, with annual inflows from workers and employers significantly outpacing member withdrawals.

Cash Flow Snapshot (Q4 2025)

Amount (Oct - Dec 2025)

Total Contributions Inflow S$14.0 billion Total Withdrawals Outflow S$7.9 billion (Combined below) Retirement Payouts S$3.2 billion Healthcare S$2.0 billion Home Ownership S$1.8 billion Other S$0.9 billion Net Cash Inflow +S$6.1 billion (Quarterly)

Full Year 2024 Performance Highlights

Contributions Collected: S$55.8 billion. Total Withdrawals: S$37.2 billion. Net Inflow: +S$18.6 billion (Annual surplus).***

***Total Members' Balances: Reached S$609.5 billion by end of 2024, a 6.7% increase from 2023. By December 2025, this grew further to S$661 billion.

Interest Credited: The government credited S$22.4 billion in interest to members in 2024.

This is an accounting liability for the state but remains within the consolidated fund."***