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What does this mean? Is Lee Hsien Loong leading the pack away from China? These guys are suddenly warming up to India and the US, especially Vietnam and Indonesia. Something's not quite right.
CHIEF GUESTS Myanmar's State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi
Vietnam Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc
Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte
Thai Prime Minister Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha
Singaporean Premier Lee Hsien Loong
Brunei's Sultan Haji Hassanal Bolkiah
Indonesian President Joko Widodo
Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak
Prime Minister of Laos Thongloun Sisoulith
Cambodian Premier Hun Sen
Singapore hosted the ASEAN Senior Officials' Meeting Retreat in mid-January. Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong attended the celebrations after the meeting, highlighting the determination of the current chair of ASEAN to promote the unity of this Southeast Asian bloc.
Singapore is not only the rotating chair of ASEAN in 2018, but also serves as country coordinator of the ASEAN-China Dialogue Relations. Its dual role is key to the further development of China-ASEAN relations this year.
In recent years, the relationship between China and Singapore has been somewhat bumpy. Last fall, Singapore took the initiative to improve ties with China, with Lee's visit before the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China in October 2017. He met with the Chinese leadership and bilateral relations have gradually returned to normal. Singapore is expected to help deepen China-ASEAN ties in 2018. But at the same time, this small city state may face some challenges.
First, will Singapore walk a fine line between major powers? For years, Singapore has adopted the balancing act as its diplomatic approach. But given its strategic position and values, its diplomacy actually leans toward the US, especially in military matters. Can Singapore treat China and the US on an equal footing in 2018?
Second, will Singapore balance its ties with China and ties with India and Australia? Two months ago, Singapore and India signed the revised Defense Cooperation Agreement to boost cooperation in maritime security. It allows Indian naval warships to enter Singapore's port, a major breakthrough in bilateral defense ties.
Meanwhile, Singapore is planning an ASEAN-Australia Special Summit to be held in Sydney in March. Does Singapore have any motivation to counterbalance China?
Last but not least, will Singapore adjust its South China Sea policy? The chill in China-Singapore relations was attributed to Singapore's South China Sea policy which infringes upon China's core interests.
Singapore grants US military forces access to its Changi Naval Base and allows US Navy littoral combat ships to be based there. It even grants the US permission to fly sophisticated surveillance aircraft out of its territory to monitor China's activities in the South China Sea.
As many ASEAN countries, especially the Philippines, have started to adjust their South China Sea policies, will Singapore do the same?
We believe Singapore has the wisdom and ability to walk out of its diplomatic dilemma. We also expect it to contribute to better China-ASEAN ties.
First, as a mutual friend of both China and the US in the Asia-Pacific, Singapore should be good at coping with its relationship with both. Singaporean officials, including Prime Minister Lee, have all spoken of the importance of Singapore maintaining good relations with China and the US. Only when Singapore does not attach itself to either China or the US can it truly exercise its balancing act.
Singapore is also expected to cope well with its relations with India and China. We support Singapore to act independently when engaging with countries in and outside the region. But meanwhile, it should be cautious about the US Indo-Pacific strategy. The strategy is still in its infancy. Before Singapore finds its own place in this strategy, it should balance its ties with China and India.
Singapore should promote the signing of the South China Sea code of conduct (COC). With years of efforts, China and ASEAN countries in August adopted a negotiating framework for the COC in the South China Sea. China has proposed actual COC negotiations to take place and to make it a stabilizer of peace in the South China Sea.
This year marks the 15th anniversary of the establishment of a strategic partnership between China and ASEAN. At the 20th China-ASEAN leaders' meeting in the Philippine capital of Manila in 2017, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang proposed formulating a vision for the strategic partnership between the two toward 2030 to upgrade cooperation. Some ASEAN countries are actively promoting this vision that can help stabilize China-ASEAN ties. During this process, Singapore is expected to play a vital role.
Unprecedented in India's history, leaders of all 10 ASEAN members on Friday attended the country's 69th Republic Day parade as chief guests. The gathering of the leaders of the group is regarded as showing India's implementation of its Act East policy and Indo-Pacific strategy.
The close ties between India and ASEAN are the outcome of both sides' strategic considerations. As for the strategic triangle of China, India and ASEAN, India has contradictions with China over border dispute, India-Pakistan relations and the Dalai Lama, which are not likely to end in a short period of time. Moreover, India all the time likes to compare its international standing with China.
India always refers to China when talking about development. According to its Nonalignment 2.0 report, the only general objective of India's Asia-Pacific strategy is to develop itself to achieve parity with China. Therefore, China and India inevitably sank into a game of influence.
All of China's moves, such as its all-weather strategic partnership with Pakistan, infrastructure construction in Southwest China, participation in the construction of the Gwadar port in Pakistan, Hambantota in Sri Lanka, Chittagong in Bangladesh and Sittwe in Myanmar, are regarded by India as the so-called "String of Pearls" that aims to encircle India and limit its global clout.
The ASEAN-India Commemorative Summit marking the 25th anniversary of their dialogue last week is also intended to target China. At the summit, India and ASEAN agreed to establish a mechanism "for greater cooperation in the maritime domain sector" and India has showcased itself to the group as an alternative to China.
ASEAN improves its ties with India out of strategic consideration to balance China's influence in Southeast Asia as India is regarded as the counterweight to reduce uncertainty brought about by the rise of China. New Delhi's Act East policy coincides with ASEAN's Act West strategy. ASEAN and India getting closer is similar to firms diversifying business to reduce risk. Therefore, the attendance of the 10 ASEAN nations' leaders in the parade does not mean that the group leans toward India.
From a strategic perspective, we must clearly recognize that ASEAN and India cooperate mainly to achieve power balance. The last thing ASEAN wants to do is publicly side with a major power. While ASEAN is outmatched militarily and economically by powers in the Asia-Pacific region, such as India and China, the most favorable scenario for the group is to keep good relations with both powers as the two bigger countries engage in conflicts.
ASEAN is highly concerned about the balance of power in the region, which is the only solution to security issue and the basic premise of its relations with major powers. In this sense, it is impractical for India to expect that ASEAN will lean toward it.
In the field of development and trade, ASEAN countries are well aware that as populous developing nations, they don't share much complementarity with India. The annual trade volume between India and ASEAN is currently $71 billion which has been declining since its peak in 2012. The trade volume between ASEAN and China in 2016 exceeded $450 billion, hence the group is more economically dependent on China. In addition, at talks during the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, India severely delayed the process forcing ASEAN leaders to ask New Delhi to conclude negotiations as soon as possible at last week's summit.
The military cooperation between India and ASEAN is just empty talk. Surrounded by big powers, ASEAN has not only established relations based on equality with big powers in Asia-Pacific region, but also brought them into its multilateral framework by means of the ASEAN Norms, such as coexistence and quiet diplomacy. The core contents of the ASEAN Norms summarized by Amitav Acharya, a notable scholar on international relations, include opposing the ASEAN military agreement and bilateral defense cooperation.
Singapore hosted the ASEAN Senior Officials' Meeting Retreat in mid-January. Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong attended the celebrations after the meeting, highlighting the determination of the current chair of ASEAN to promote the unity of this Southeast Asian bloc.
Singapore is not only the rotating chair of ASEAN in 2018, but also serves as country coordinator of the ASEAN-China Dialogue Relations. Its dual role is key to the further development of China-ASEAN relations this year.
In recent years, the relationship between China and Singapore has been somewhat bumpy. Last fall, Singapore took the initiative to improve ties with China, with Lee's visit before the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China in October 2017. He met with the Chinese leadership and bilateral relations have gradually returned to normal. Singapore is expected to help deepen China-ASEAN ties in 2018. But at the same time, this small city state may face some challenges.
First, will Singapore walk a fine line between major powers? For years, Singapore has adopted the balancing act as its diplomatic approach. But given its strategic position and values, its diplomacy actually leans toward the US, especially in military matters. Can Singapore treat China and the US on an equal footing in 2018?
Second, will Singapore balance its ties with China and ties with India and Australia? Two months ago, Singapore and India signed the revised Defense Cooperation Agreement to boost cooperation in maritime security. It allows Indian naval warships to enter Singapore's port, a major breakthrough in bilateral defense ties.
Meanwhile, Singapore is planning an ASEAN-Australia Special Summit to be held in Sydney in March. Does Singapore have any motivation to counterbalance China?
Last but not least, will Singapore adjust its South China Sea policy? The chill in China-Singapore relations was attributed to Singapore's South China Sea policy which infringes upon China's core interests.
Singapore grants US military forces access to its Changi Naval Base and allows US Navy littoral combat ships to be based there. It even grants the US permission to fly sophisticated surveillance aircraft out of its territory to monitor China's activities in the South China Sea.
As many ASEAN countries, especially the Philippines, have started to adjust their South China Sea policies, will Singapore do the same?
We believe Singapore has the wisdom and ability to walk out of its diplomatic dilemma. We also expect it to contribute to better China-ASEAN ties.
First, as a mutual friend of both China and the US in the Asia-Pacific, Singapore should be good at coping with its relationship with both. Singaporean officials, including Prime Minister Lee, have all spoken of the importance of Singapore maintaining good relations with China and the US. Only when Singapore does not attach itself to either China or the US can it truly exercise its balancing act.
Singapore is also expected to cope well with its relations with India and China. We support Singapore to act independently when engaging with countries in and outside the region. But meanwhile, it should be cautious about the US Indo-Pacific strategy. The strategy is still in its infancy. Before Singapore finds its own place in this strategy, it should balance its ties with China and India.
Singapore should promote the signing of the South China Sea code of conduct (COC). With years of efforts, China and ASEAN countries in August adopted a negotiating framework for the COC in the South China Sea. China has proposed actual COC negotiations to take place and to make it a stabilizer of peace in the South China Sea.
This year marks the 15th anniversary of the establishment of a strategic partnership between China and ASEAN. At the 20th China-ASEAN leaders' meeting in the Philippine capital of Manila in 2017, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang proposed formulating a vision for the strategic partnership between the two toward 2030 to upgrade cooperation. Some ASEAN countries are actively promoting this vision that can help stabilize China-ASEAN ties. During this process, Singapore is expected to play a vital role.
Unprecedented in India's history, leaders of all 10 ASEAN members on Friday attended the country's 69th Republic Day parade as chief guests. The gathering of the leaders of the group is regarded as showing India's implementation of its Act East policy and Indo-Pacific strategy.
The close ties between India and ASEAN are the outcome of both sides' strategic considerations. As for the strategic triangle of China, India and ASEAN, India has contradictions with China over border dispute, India-Pakistan relations and the Dalai Lama, which are not likely to end in a short period of time. Moreover, India all the time likes to compare its international standing with China.
India always refers to China when talking about development. According to its Nonalignment 2.0 report, the only general objective of India's Asia-Pacific strategy is to develop itself to achieve parity with China. Therefore, China and India inevitably sank into a game of influence.
All of China's moves, such as its all-weather strategic partnership with Pakistan, infrastructure construction in Southwest China, participation in the construction of the Gwadar port in Pakistan, Hambantota in Sri Lanka, Chittagong in Bangladesh and Sittwe in Myanmar, are regarded by India as the so-called "String of Pearls" that aims to encircle India and limit its global clout.
The ASEAN-India Commemorative Summit marking the 25th anniversary of their dialogue last week is also intended to target China. At the summit, India and ASEAN agreed to establish a mechanism "for greater cooperation in the maritime domain sector" and India has showcased itself to the group as an alternative to China.
ASEAN improves its ties with India out of strategic consideration to balance China's influence in Southeast Asia as India is regarded as the counterweight to reduce uncertainty brought about by the rise of China. New Delhi's Act East policy coincides with ASEAN's Act West strategy. ASEAN and India getting closer is similar to firms diversifying business to reduce risk. Therefore, the attendance of the 10 ASEAN nations' leaders in the parade does not mean that the group leans toward India.
From a strategic perspective, we must clearly recognize that ASEAN and India cooperate mainly to achieve power balance. The last thing ASEAN wants to do is publicly side with a major power. While ASEAN is outmatched militarily and economically by powers in the Asia-Pacific region, such as India and China, the most favorable scenario for the group is to keep good relations with both powers as the two bigger countries engage in conflicts.
ASEAN is highly concerned about the balance of power in the region, which is the only solution to security issue and the basic premise of its relations with major powers. In this sense, it is impractical for India to expect that ASEAN will lean toward it.
In the field of development and trade, ASEAN countries are well aware that as populous developing nations, they don't share much complementarity with India. The annual trade volume between India and ASEAN is currently $71 billion which has been declining since its peak in 2012. The trade volume between ASEAN and China in 2016 exceeded $450 billion, hence the group is more economically dependent on China. In addition, at talks during the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, India severely delayed the process forcing ASEAN leaders to ask New Delhi to conclude negotiations as soon as possible at last week's summit.
The military cooperation between India and ASEAN is just empty talk. Surrounded by big powers, ASEAN has not only established relations based on equality with big powers in Asia-Pacific region, but also brought them into its multilateral framework by means of the ASEAN Norms, such as coexistence and quiet diplomacy. The core contents of the ASEAN Norms summarized by Amitav Acharya, a notable scholar on international relations, include opposing the ASEAN military agreement and bilateral defense cooperation.
