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“端着个碗来大陆”，韩国瑜想要点什么
2019-03-22 08:03
台湾 /中国 /韩国
【文/观察者网专栏作家 雁默】
3月22日-28日，韩国瑜将访问大陆香港，澳门，深圳，厦门四城市，目的虽是城市间的经济文化交流，但由于韩目前在岛内人气颇高，甚至有呼声认为他很有可能成为台湾领导人，因此访陆、“访美”行都受到高度关注，各方眼睛都睁得很大。
据报载，有大陆网友认为韩这是“拿着碗来的”，那是当然，这位背负沉重债务的市长，拿着碗到处鞠躬哈腰求订单是职责所在，到大陆自然也是。为人民利益弯腰，是英雄行径，没什么好丢人的。
事实上，人还没去，高雄已获大批订单，分别是广东潮州连都贸易公司1年10亿元（新台币）订单，江苏文峰集团1年5亿订单，在韩上任八十几天后成为前三大订单的第一第二名。这几日还传出有澳门民企采购下了鲜花订单1年6600万，含在澳门51家供应商1年1.2亿的订单里。
戴着“财神帽”接受参访，韩国瑜表示要让高雄“发大财”（图片来源：东方IC）
韩国瑜的碗，现在满满是有形或无形的礼物，风光的是高雄人，丢人的则是欠下高额债务的陈菊，以及让县市首长不得不拿着碗到处弯腰，还予以嘲讽，打压，处处设限的民进党当局。
不过，对比于3000亿的债务，这些礼物仍是杯水车薪，高雄，乃至于整个台湾，需要的是大生意、大希望，韩国瑜仅以区区市长的地位，能做的却十分有限。仅凭高雄市长救不了高雄，韩国瑜若明年此时才领悟到这一点，就太晚了。
让我们先算算帐吧，台湾还有多少家底？
韩国瑜想在碗里放的是种子
所谓家底，就是外汇存底加上黄金储备。台湾黄金储备约为324公吨，约合台币3888亿，外汇存底约为4600亿美元，扣掉约92%的外资持有[注1]为368亿美元，约合台币1.14兆（万亿），两者相加就是约1.52兆，而“中央政府”每年总预算约为1.96兆。
换言之，台湾的家底还不足支应一年政府总预算，高雄市负债则占家底两成。
再者，外汇存底八到九成掌握在外资手里，而外资多数又以流动性最高的证券投资为主，倘若外资在短时间内大举撤离，台湾不死也只剩半条命。这意味着台湾必须为外资结构“整骨”。
台湾的外资结构是FPI（Foreign Portfolio Investment）远大于FDI（Foreign Direct Investment），FDI（外国直接投资）是指外国人将资金汇入台湾从事设备建置，厂房建造等长期性投资。FPI指的是投资组合，资金汇入台湾主要从事炒股、炒汇等短期性投资。
大白话来说，FDI是外国人比较愿意承担风险的投资“成本”，FPI是外国人见台湾情况好的时候一窝蜂涌进，不好的时候立马撤出的“赌本”。换言之，台湾外资结构是赌客居大多数，经营者却很少。
全球每年有约1.5兆美元的资金流动，香港往往可以抢到近千亿的份额，台湾则很少超过百亿。FDI不满百亿，FPI却高达两千亿美元，大家都是来赌的，乃台湾深重的经济问题。也就是说，台湾应该非常需要大幅提升FDI，从“九合一”选举时，民进党参选人陈其迈与韩国瑜都大喊要招商引资，即可得到明证。
台湾的FDI占GDP比重只有1.1%，可谓相当疲弱。诚然，FDI金额的高低，不必然与经济成长正相关，有些经济体如新加坡、香港的FDI占GDP的两成与近四成，韩国则只有0.7%，却同样都是经济成长相当亮眼的地区，荷兰的FDI占GDP高达三成五，但经济长期低靡。
台北市街景（图片来源：视觉中国）
显示FDI是否为经济体的主要成长来源，端视该经济体的取向是较重视本土产业发展，或是以外资为经济成长动力。星马显然属于后者，台湾、大陆都较倾向前者。
重点在于，台湾的本土产业与出口主力面临了瓶颈，正需要外资FDI注入活水，以作为经济结构调整的动力。这就是为什么韩国瑜近日重提马时期的“自由经济示范区”（自经区）计划，该计划事实上就是将眼光放在FDI，告别经济保守主义的政策，但自经区计划并未在马时期实现。
因此，韩国瑜访大陆四个城市，想放在碗里带回台湾的，是粤港澳大湾区以及“一带一路”这两粒真正具有长远价值的种子，借由这两粒种子的开花结果，既能为台湾经济整骨，也能深化两岸经贸与文化交流。其余订单或熊猫，都只是宣传意味比较高的小礼物。（高雄当然养得起熊猫，多的是企业会认养，这个问题应该从熊猫保育的角度来看，而不是财务负担。）
粤港澳大湾区以及“一带一路”的经济战略，大陆读者应该都非常熟悉了，但台湾民众知之甚少，韩国瑜的价值，就是能将其转化为庶民语言并较为有效地扫除路上的障碍。
设立自经区并与大陆经贸特区对接，能解决台湾签订FTA脚步落后而被边缘化的问题，当然政敌也会做出“鸡蛋放在同一个笼子里”的指责，但事实摆在眼前，绿营无法促成台湾加入CPTPP与RCEP，与美国签订FTA的希望也很渺茫，是根本连笼子都没有。
所以韩国瑜带着种子回台后，立刻就会进入政治内战。
2020年，有“匪气”者胜
在赖清德宣布参选后，民进党立刻陷入内战，但蔡赖之差别，仅在于85度C的“独”与100度C的“独”，无论谁胜出，都一样会打“危机牌”以求在2020年险中求胜。而就算落败，民进党也会力保40度C的“独”以图东山再起。
故而，今年蓝绿争胜是“经济牌”与“危机牌”的对决，蓝营的选战主轴，毫无疑问会套用韩国瑜的经济主张布局，无论参选人是谁。
现在绿营选民焦虑的是，应该离中间路线远一点或近一点，因为蔡赖已出现分歧。蓝营选民焦虑的是，推羔羊没有胜算，推土匪缺乏正当性。
赖清德与吴敦义（图片来源：东方IC）
羔羊者，国民党传统精英也，马，王，朱，吴皆此类，保守拘泥无战力。土匪者，韩国瑜也，接地气，敢突破，有勇有谋战力高。蓝营支持者盼了20年才出现一个有匪气的领袖抗击绿军，让战力高者困守一城，以羔羊做前锋，焦虑也很正常。
其实，韩国瑜参选当然能有正当性，而且十分简单，只需要将竞选主轴放在“让高雄成为台湾经济中心”即可，变成政治中心亦无不可，如此才真正能解决高雄问题。市长算什么？在一级政治高层里敬陪末座而已，而高雄确实病入膏肓，不下猛药难以根治。
高雄市确实有条件成为全岛经济中心，但绝非一个市长层级所能促成。
国民党“立委”与15位县市首长力推自经区救经济，虽然大方向正确，但做法缺乏谋略。马时期推动此政策之所以不了了之，就是因为放弃了从高雄做为起点的初衷，改采全台规模的“自由经济岛”，规划出“六海一空”（六个海港与一个空港，外加屏东生技园区）扩大架构。
由于各城市的背景不同，遇到的问题亦有差异，而自经区本来就是实验性质的计划，以台湾的政治环境来看，应该从小而大，以单一城市为起点，在不断调整修正的过程里逐步扩展至其他县市，才能有效避免事前规划上的虚耗。
之所以失败，除了绿营的杯葛，说到底，就是“蓝委”不团结，不团结，是因为各区域利益的矛盾，且知识显然不足。
举凡大计划，必须有一个意志力坚决的掌舵者主导，但马王问题使得国民党执政常常呈现双头马车，甚至有时马车对撞的现象，此乃蓝营之痼疾，也是绿营“拐马脚”常常能得逞的主因。君不见，民进党完全执政，想推什么法案就推什么法案，蓝营成功杯葛了什么案子吗？这不能全部推给席次不够，而是蓝营始终没有在内斗中孵出一个绝对领导人所致。
因此，韩国瑜应该记取之前的教训，趁着2020年“选举”有志角逐“立委”者都需要“韩流”的时机，统合出一个推动自经区的全台区域“立委”团队，形成一个土匪战力，方能因应绿营的“威胁牌”战术。
长期利益比短期抢救更重要
根据大陆商务部统计，台商投资大陆总额若加上第三地转投资，“实际使用台资”约1300亿美元。每年大陆来自台湾的投资额，不是第一名就是第二名，当香港是第一名的时候，港资中还包含许多以港商为名义投资大陆的台资。
反观大陆投资台湾的金额，由于台湾自己设下层层限制，所以自2009年开放陆资以来至今，总计只有近22亿美元。
视频网站“爱奇艺”进军台湾市场（图片来源：网络）
对台湾而言，经贸特区的意义之一，其实也是在法规上松绑，以吸引陆资与人才进驻，让两岸经贸交流往互利互赖的方向发展。
我一向不赞成政治让利，相信韩国瑜也不会认为这是正途，大架构下的经贸互利所能获得有形无形的效益，远远高于暂时性的让利。因此，当谢龙介在台南频频强调大陆订单时，我认为他可能低估了农民，短期抢救与长期利益，农渔民其实都看得清楚。多去解释大架构的经贸交流，能产生更有利于农渔民的产销结构，才是政策宣传的正确方向。
促成两岸经贸特区对接，没有人是土匪，两岸关系中的匪类，是人前说不要，人后偷偷在大陆捞钱的商业“台独”。
至于韩国瑜是否能在两岸政治协商里扮演推动的角色？那是另一个重要议题，观察重点在于国民党打两岸经济牌时，引起了什么样的各方互动，可随时事专文分析。
[注1] 外资持有台湾外汇存底的比例变动，常在85%-95%之间游移。
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"Take a bowl to the mainland", what does South Korea Yu want?
2019-03-22 08:03 Taiwan / China / South Korea
[Text / Observer Network columnist Yan Meng]
From March 22nd to 28th, South Korea’s Yu will visit the four cities of Hong Kong, Macao, Shenzhen and Xiamen. Although the purpose is economic and cultural exchanges between cities, because Korea is currently very popular on the island, there are even voices that he is very It is possible to become a leader of Taiwan. Therefore, visits to the land and "visiting the United States" have been highly concerned, and all eyes have been very large.
According to the report, some mainland netizens think that this is “holding a bowl”. Of course, the mayor with heavy debts is holding a bowl and looking for an order everywhere. It is also natural to the mainland. Bending for the interests of the people is a heroic act, nothing to be embarrassing.
In fact, people have not yet gone, Kaohsiung has received a large number of orders, respectively, Guangdong Chaozhou Liandu trading company 1 year billion yuan (NT) orders, Jiangsu Wenfeng Group 1 year 500 million orders, in Korea for 80 days After that, it became the first and second place in the top three orders. In the past few days, it has also been reported that Macao private enterprises have purchased flowers for 1 year and 66 million, including 51 orders from 120 suppliers in Macau for one year.
Wearing a "God of Wealth Cap" to accept the visit, South Korea Yu said to let Kaohsiung "get rich" (Source: Oriental IC)
The bowl of Korean Yu is now full of tangible or intangible gifts. The scenery is from Kaohsiung. The shameful is Chen Ju, who owes a high debt, and the head of the county and city has to hold the bowl and bend over everywhere. Taunting, suppressing, and setting the limits of the DPP authorities.
However, compared to the 300 billion debts, these gifts are still a drop in the bucket. Kaohsiung, and even Taiwan as a whole, need big business and big hopes. South Korea’s status as a mayor alone is very limited. It is too late for Kaohsiung’s mayor to save Kaohsiung.
Let's calculate the account first. How many bases does Taiwan have?
Korean Yu wants to put seeds in the bowl.
The so-called family bottom is the foreign exchange deposit plus gold reserves. Taiwan’s gold reserves are about 324 metric tons, about NT$388.8 billion, foreign exchange reserves are about US$460 billion, and about 92% of foreign holdings are held [Note 1] at US$36.8 billion, or about NT$1.14 trillion. The sum of the two is about 1.52 trillion, while the "central government" has a total annual budget of about 1.96 trillion.
In other words, Taiwan’s family is still not enough to support the government’s total budget for one year, and Kaohsiung’s debt is 20%.
Moreover, foreign exchange deposits are 80% to 90% in the hands of foreign capital, while foreign capital is mostly based on the most liquid securities investment. If foreign capital is withdrawn in a short period of time, Taiwan will not die and only half life will be left. This means that Taiwan must “consolidate” the structure of foreign capital.
Taiwan's foreign investment structure is that FPI (Foreign Portfolio Investment) is much larger than FDI (Foreign Direct Investment). FDI (Foreign Direct Investment) refers to long-term investment by foreigners to remit funds into Taiwan for equipment construction and plant construction. FPI refers to the investment portfolio. The funds are remitted to Taiwan and are mainly engaged in short-term investments such as stock trading and speculation.
In the vernacular, FDI is the “cost” of investment that foreigners are more willing to take risks. The FPI is a “gambling book” when foreigners see Taiwan in good condition and rush into the market when they are not good. In other words, Taiwan’s foreign investment structure is dominated by gamblers and few operators.
There are about 1.5 trillion US dollars of capital flow each year, Hong Kong can often grab nearly 100 billion shares, and Taiwan rarely exceeds 10 billion. FDI is less than 10 billion yuan, but the FPI is as high as 200 billion US dollars. Everyone is gambling, which is a serious economic problem in Taiwan. In other words, Taiwan should be in great need of a substantial increase in FDI. From the "Nine in One" election, the Democratic Progressive Party candidate Chen Qimai and South Korea's Yudu yelled to attract investment, which can be proved.
Taiwan's FDI accounted for only 1.1% of GDP, which is quite weak. It is true that the level of FDI is not necessarily related to economic growth. In some economies, such as Singapore and Hong Kong, FDI accounts for 20% of GDP and nearly 40%, while South Korea has only 0.7%, but it is also quite bright. In the region, the FDI in the Netherlands accounts for as much as 35 percent of GDP, but the economy has been low for a long time.
Taipei City Street View (Source: Visual China)
It shows whether FDI is the main source of growth for the economy, and the orientation of the economy is that it pays more attention to the development of local industries, or that foreign capital is the driving force for economic growth. Xingma obviously belongs to the latter, and Taiwan and the mainland are more inclined to the former.
The main point is that Taiwan's domestic industry and export mains face bottlenecks, and foreign FDI is needed to inject live water as a driving force for economic restructuring. This is why South Korea’s Yu-Yo’s “Free Economic Demonstration Zone” (Self-Management Zone) plan has been focused on FDI and bid farewell to economic conservatism, but the plan has not been Realized during the horse era.
Therefore, South Korea’s Yu visits four cities in mainland China and wants to bring it back to Taiwan in the bowl. It is the two long-term seeds of Guangdong, Hong Kong, Macao and Dawan District and the “Belt and Road”, with the result of the flowering of these two seeds. It will not only strengthen the economy of Taiwan, but also deepen cross-strait economic and trade and cultural exchanges. The rest of the orders or pandas are just small gifts that are high in meaning. (Kaohsiung certainly can afford pandas, and many companies will adopt them. This problem should be from the perspective of panda conservation, not financial burden.)
The economic strategy of Guangdong, Hong Kong, Macao and Dawan District and the “Belt and Road” should be familiar to the mainland readers, but the Taiwanese people know very little. The value of Korean Yu is to turn it into a language and effectively remove obstacles on the road. .
The establishment of the self-management zone and the docking with the mainland economic and trade zone can solve the problem of Taiwan’s signing of the FTA’s backwardness and being marginalized. Of course, political opponents will also make accusations that “the eggs are placed in the same cage”, but the facts are in front of them. It is impossible to promote Taiwan's participation in CPTPP and RCEP. The hope of signing an FTA with the United States is also very embarrassing. It is not even a cage.
Therefore, after bringing back the seeds, South Korea’s Yu will immediately enter a political civil war.
In 2020, there is a "helium" win.
After Lai Qingde announced his candidacy, the DPP immediately fell into a civil war, but the difference between Cai Lai’s only lies in the “independence” of 85 degrees C and the “independence” of 100 degrees C. No matter who wins, they will all play the “crisis card”. In order to win in 2020. Even if it is defeated, the DPP will try to protect the "independence" of 40 degrees C to make a comeback.
Therefore, this year's blue-green competition is a confrontation between "economic card" and "crisis card". The main battle of the blue camp will undoubtedly apply the layout of Korean Yu's economic proposition, regardless of who the candidate is.
Now the Green Camp voters are anxious that they should be a little closer or closer to the middle route because Cai Lai has already disagreed. The blue camp voters are anxious that there is no chance of winning the lamb, and the bulldozer lacks legitimacy.
Lai Qingde and Wu Dunyi (Source: Oriental IC)
The Lamb, the traditional elite of the Kuomintang, Ma, Wang, Zhu, Wu are all such, conservative and discreet. The bandits, South Korea Yu, also grounded, dare to break through, have the courage to fight high. The supporters of the Blue Camp hope that in 20 years, a suffocating leader will fight against the Green Army, so that the high-powered people will be trapped in a city, and the Lamb will be a striker. The anxiety is also normal.
In fact, the South Korean Yu election can certainly be justified, and it is very simple. It is only necessary to put the main axis of the campaign to "make Kaohsiung become the economic center of Taiwan" and become a political center. This will really solve the Kaohsiung problem. What is the mayor? In the first-level political high-level, he stayed with the last seat, and Kaohsiung was indeed ill, and it was hard to cure it.
Kaohsiung City does have the conditions to become the economic center of the island, but it is not a level of the mayor.
The Kuomintang "legislators" and the heads of the 15 counties and cities pushed the economy to save the economy. Although the general direction was correct, the practice was lacking. The reason why this policy was promoted during the Ma period was that it gave up the original intention of starting from Kaohsiung as a starting point, and adopted a “free economic island” of the scale of the whole Taiwan to plan a “six seas and an empty space” (six seaports and one airport). Plus Pingtung Biotechnology Park) to expand the structure.
Due to the different backgrounds of different cities, the problems encountered are also different. The self-study area is originally an experimental plan. In terms of Taiwan’s political environment, it should be small and large, starting from a single city and constantly adjusting and correcting. In the process, it will gradually expand to other counties and cities, in order to effectively avoid the waste of pre-planning.
The reason why the failure, in addition to the green camp's boycott, in the end, is that the "blue committee" is not united, not united, because of the contradictions of regional interests, and knowledge is clearly insufficient.
The grand plan must be dominated by a helm who is determined by the willpower. However, the Mawang issue makes the Kuomintang governor often present a double-headed carriage, and sometimes even a carriage collision. This is the dying of the blue camp, and it is also the green camp. The main cause of success. If you don't see it, the DPP is completely in power. If you want to push any bill, what bill will be pushed? What is the case of Blue Camp success? This cannot be fully pushed to the seats, but the Blue Camp has never been caused by an absolute leader in the fight.
Therefore, South Korea should remember the lessons of the past, and take advantage of the opportunity of “Korean” in the “elections” of the “elections” in 2020, and integrate a regional “legislator” team to promote the self-governing region. Form a banditry force in order to respond to the "threat card" tactics of the Green Camp.
Long-term benefits are more important than short-term rescue
According to the statistics of the Ministry of Commerce of the Mainland, if the total amount of Taiwanese investment in the mainland is added to the third place, the actual use of Taiwanese investment is about 130 billion US dollars. Every year, mainland China’s investment from Taiwan is not the first place or the second place. When Hong Kong is the first place, Hong Kong capital also contains many Taiwanese capitals that invest in the mainland under the name of Hong Kong businessmen.
In contrast, the amount of mainland investment in Taiwan, due to Taiwan's own set of restrictions, so since the opening of land in 2009, the total has only nearly 2.2 billion US dollars.
Video site "Iqiyi" enters the Taiwan market (Source: Network)
For Taiwan, one of the meanings of the economic and trade special zones is actually to loosen the regulations in order to attract land capital and talents to enter, so that cross-strait economic and trade exchanges can develop in a mutually beneficial direction.
I have always disapproved of political concessions. I believe that South Korea’s Yu will not think that this is the right way. The economic and trade benefits under the big structure can obtain tangible and intangible benefits, far higher than the temporary profit. Therefore, when Xie Longjie frequently emphasized mainland orders in Tainan, I think he may underestimate the peasants, short-term rescue and long-term interests, and farmers and fishermen can actually see clearly. To explain the economic and trade exchanges of the large structure and to produce a structure that is more conducive to the production and marketing of farmers and fishermen is the correct direction of policy propaganda.
To promote the cross-strait economic and trade SAR docking, no one is a bandit, the scorpion in cross-strait relations is a commercial "Taiwan independence" that people say before they want to sneak money in the mainland.
As for whether South Korea’s Yu can play a facilitating role in cross-strait political negotiations? That is another important issue. The focus of the observation is on what kind of interactions between the parties when the Kuomintang is playing the economic cards on both sides of the Taiwan Strait.
[Note 1] The proportion of foreign exchange holding Taiwan's foreign exchange reserves is often between 85% and 95%.
