Japan 'no longer rich country' by 2050

[singveld]

Japan 'no longer rich country' by 2050: Think tank

Japan could fall out of the league of developed nations by 2050 as a shrinking and greying population as well as slowing productivity make its economy contract, a think tank has warned.

TOKYO (AFP) - Japan could fall out of the league of developed nations by 2050 as a shrinking and greying population as well as slowing productivity make its economy contract, a think tank has warned.

The 21st Century Public Policy Institute said a dwindling workforce, caused by a chronic low birthrate, will combine with lower savings and shriveling investment to drag the once mighty economy down.

The think tank, linked to Japan's powerful Keidanren business federation, said the economy will start getting smaller at some point in the 2030s, even if productivity recovers to the average level of the world's top economies.

Japan's GDP will fall behind India in 2014 and by 2050 it will lose its economic presence 'significantly', dipping to be only one sixth that of China and the United States and one third that of India, said the report.

 

[singveld]

TOKYO: Japan could fall out of the league of developed nations by 2050 as a shrinking and greying population as well as slowing productivity make its economy contract, a think tank has warned.

The 21st Century Public Policy Institute said a dwindling workforce, caused by a chronic low birthrate, will combine with lower savings and shriveling investment to drag the once mighty economy down.

The think tank, linked to Japan's powerful Keidanren business federation, said the economy will start getting smaller at some point in the 2030s, even if productivity recovers to the average level of the world's top economies.

Japan's GDP will fall behind India in 2014 and by 2050 it will lose its economic presence "significantly", dipping to be only one sixth that of China and the United States and one third that of India, said the report.

Until it was overtaken by China last year, Japan's economy was the world's second largest.

In the most pessimistic scenario, the economy will continue contracting because of a worsening fiscal condition, with its GDP shrinking to the point where it is no longer among the the world's top economies.

The think tank said, however, the future was not necessarily doom and gloom and if policymakers could boost workforce participation by women to the same level as that of Sweden by 2040, Japan could still be the world's fourth largest economy by mid-century.

Japan sprinted up the league of world economies in the 1970s and 80s, but the bursting of the twin bubbles of stocks and property two decades ago took the wind out of its sales and it has trodden water ever since.

Years of anaemic growth and unsuccessful pump priming by successive governments have burdened Japan with public debt equivalent to twice GDP, with analysts warning only higher tax revenues or spending cuts can bridge the gap.

Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda has worked to push through a bill to raise sales tax from the present five percent to 10 percent by 2015.

But even with this boost, the report warned, the nation's public debt could swell to nearly 600 percent of GDP by 2050 without further curative measures.

Japan's population is already declining thanks to a low birthrate and almost non-existent levels of immigration.

A government report released earlier this year predicted it could shrink to a third of its current size over the next century.

 

[singveld]

Think tank: Japan ‘no longer rich country’ by 2050

TOKYO: Japan could fall out of the league of developed nations by 2050 as a shrinking and greying population as well as slowing productivity make its economy contract, a think tank has warned.

The 21st Century Public Policy Institute said a dwindling workforce, caused by a chronic low birthrate, will combine with lower savings and shrivelling investment to drag the once mighty economy down.

The think tank, linked to Japan’s powerful Keidanren business federation, said the economy will start getting smaller at some point in the 2030s, even if productivity recovers to the average level of the world’s top economies.

Japan’s GDP will fall behind India in 2014 and by 2050 it will lose its economic presence “significantly”, dipping to be only one sixth that of China and the United States and one third that of India, said the report.

Until it was overtaken by China last year, Japan’s economy was the world’s second largest.

In the most pessimistic scenario, the economy will continue contracting because of a worsening fiscal condition, with its GDP shrinking to the point where it is no longer among the the world’s top economies.

The think tank said, however, the future was not necessarily doom and gloom and if policymakers could boost workforce participation by women to the same level as that of Sweden by 2040, Japan could still be the world’s fourth largest economy by mid-century.

Japan sprinted up the league of world economies in the 1970s and 80s, but the bursting of the twin bubbles of stocks and property two decades ago took the wind out of its sales and it has trodden water ever since.

Years of anaemic growth and unsuccessful pump priming by successive governments have burdened Japan with public debt equivalent to twice GDP, with analysts warning only higher tax revenues or spending cuts can bridge the gap.

Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda has worked to push through a bill to raise sales tax from the present five percent to 10 percent by 2015.

But even with this boost, the report warned, the nation’s public debt could swell to nearly 600% of GDP by 2050 without further curative measures.

Japan’s population is already declining thanks to a low birthrate and almost non-existent levels of immigration.

A government report released earlier this year predicted it could shrink to a third of its current size over the next century.

 

[LeMans2011]

Did not read the whole article.. but the title itself is stupid, and full of grammatical errors.

Japanese are introspective and they look at themselves a lot more than others, that is why they are ahead. The fact that they are self-critical, forward thinking means that gloomy scenario will never happen.

I find it a lot more credible to believe Sinkieland will revert to Malayan Union by 2050.

 

[singveld]

yeah i live in the time when japan are so great, a small island become the 2nd richest country in the world by it's technology, it almost impossible for us to see japan to drop out of rich lists.

 

[BIGGERFUCK]

Actually, Japan will be in shit in the next 5 years. A lot of things have been swept under the carpet. They are ignorant of the world and just think their products are number one. Most of their products are irrelevant to the international consumers, before their price.

 

[singveld]

Actually, Japan will be in shit in the next 5 years. A lot of things have been swept under the carpet. They are ignorant of the world and just think their products are number one. Most of their products are irrelevant to the international consumers, before their price.

5 years is too soon, japan is still ahead of their competition in their products now, no one can catch them up in 5 years. I know because i go there every year to shop

 

[Alamaking]

Singapore will not exist in 2050, those agree 1, Kee chiew!!!!!!!

 

[neddy]

Singapore will not exist in 2050, those agree 1, Kee chiew!!!!!!!

Singapore will still be there, but no one will recognise it. Singaporeans will be a minority.

 

[wuqi256]

Singapore will not exist in 2050, those agree 1, Kee chiew!!!!!!!

Probably may still exist but may only be subsisting. Nowhere near the same as present.
Nothing is forever, even if forever, it may only last one lifetime.

 

[BIGGERFUCK]

5 years is too soon, japan is still ahead of their competition in their products now, no one can catch them up in 5 years. I know because i go there every year to shop

You may be shopping there every year, but you do not how bad the lying inside all their organizations go and how incompetent their management is. There is no problem with their production abilities and know how. But management knows squat about production and investments. The actual cost of the products are dirt cheap and you would pay 4-6times the price over a China product. But it has to be pumped up >10 times to feed useless staffs number 75%, product cycle changes and demand uncertainty on top of other silly cost issues.

 

[singveld]

You may be shopping there every year, but you do not how bad the lying inside all their organizations go and how incompetent their management is. There is no problem with their production abilities and know how. But management knows squat about production and investments. The actual cost of the products are dirt cheap and you would pay 4-6times the price over a China product. But it has to be pumped up >10 times to feed useless staffs number 75%, product cycle changes and demand uncertainty on top of other silly cost issues.

japanese camera are best in the world
japanese lenses are one of the best in the world
japanese IC are required by high tech industries and military or they cannot even work
japanese produce the world silicon, without it, the world IC fab will have to close
japanese produce the chemicals, without it, the world manufacturing will ground to a halt
I can go on and on.
5 years are too short for japan to falter.
No sane people even can consider that a reality.