I think so too. the WP brand seems 4% to 5% more votes than other oppositions parties. if in 2011GE, WP contested in the West, they would likely hit above 40% in CCK and HBT, probably 42% to 43%. WP worst performer was Moulmein-Kallang (41.45%). maybe we read too much into the East-West 2011GE divide, it's just that the strongest opposition party WP did not contest in the West.
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Is LHL Serious about Re-taking Aljunied GRC?
- Thread starter TracyTan866
- Start date
I think so too. the WP brand seems 4% to 5% more votes than other oppositions parties. if in 2011GE, WP contested in the West, they would likely hit above 40% in CCK and HBT, probably 42% to 43%. WP worst performer was Moulmein-Kallang (41.45%). maybe we read too much into the East-West 2011GE divide, it's just that the strongest opposition party WP did not contest in the West.
Most of us dont really know the candidates well enough to make an informed choice. so we chose the party of the candidate instead rather than the candidate himself. also the party often has more influence on our choice than the candidate
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Because their minds have already been set on PAP. PAP could present a dog dressed in all white as their candidate and the 60% would still vote for it.
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Describing WP M-K team as the worst WP performer is a bit unfair. All WP teams crossed 40%. It's the first time any opposition crossed 40% in JB/M-K. The M-K vote swing quantum is higher than that in Aljunied.
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Interestingly, RP also scored the best ever result at West Coast GRC, being the only opposition that crossed 30% at West Coast. Anyway, over is over liao, meaningless to do any drum beating.
Drum beating is necessary for forward going. Don't you look forward for a win, whichever party?
I am far least interested to offer any advice or be interested in someone like TJS whom I abandoned to vote TCB a few days before polling.
But I believe in a thing as political perception. Tan Cheng Bock would occupy "opposition ground" in the absence of TJS, whether it is intentional or painted by the media. In the course of that, he would lose the PAP votes (though not all). The reason why TT did not get most of the 60.1% was because it was perceived that there were 2 PAP candidates, or rather, one-and-half PAP candidates. On the other hand, opposition votes were also split between TCB and TJS.
Now, this is quite common political psychology around the world - when a leftist party pulls out, a rightist party moves centre and can still get some conservative left votes. It can be the same rightist party in 1950 and 1955 and the factor will change some things. I am not pulling magic from a hat.
I don't think preferred candidate or tactical consideration was a majority. We were into a mode where candidates were considered by voters based on how close they were to the government, and how much each of the 3 candidates (excluding TKL who got too few votes to determine where his vote base was) commanded in their respective markets. I am quite confident that this is a fact.
Maybe you are right that TCB would have won, but it won't be TT 35% vs TCB 35% plus 25% (from TJS) therefore = 60%. More like TT getting 45% and TCB 50%. Which would mean my point stands.
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Perspective said:
I too agree that TCB's votes would be less than 50%, closer to 45 % but TT would have got only 35 to 40 % with TKL, no matter how non-electable he is, winning back his deposit. The reason why I differ from you regarding TCB's supporters is that they are different from the usual PAP supporters. Just go to his website and see the adulation they have for him. They talk as if the ruling party is really the other side even though his strongest supporters are ex-PAP. The rest are the middle ground opposition supporters. Even today, his Facebook is filled with well-wishers and people following his every move, giving him encouragement. The other reason is that TJS and TT supporters are at extreme poles of the spectrum. Except for a few who were wrong in understanding where the candidates stood, no one would switch from one to the other. And precisely because of this largely leftist hardcore character of TJS's supporters, many would not have gone for TCB because he held the middle ground and because some would have viewed him as the second PAP candidate. These voters would possibly simply spoil their votes or go for TKL to deny TT. So only the moderate half would have plumped for TCB having a difficult choice deciding between him and TKL just to deny TT. But I strongly believe TCB has only a PE interest because of his past ties with the ruling party unless there is a breakout from the PAP, he will not join any of the existing opposition parties.
Yes, many of them are just blindly loyal to the pap because they have experienced what the original pap of the 1960s have done for Singapore. But the present pap is totally different from the 1960s pap. their values, character are totally not the same.
if original pap leaders like GKS, EWB are alive, would they admonish the present pap like what Ngiam Tow Dong have done for their betrayal to the original cause?
Despite what some critics have said abt the WP, no one can deny that WP is the team to watch in the near future. It will continue to attract credible Singaporeans and we should see it giving pap serious challenge in many GRCs. Success begets success and I wish WP well
WP and RP scored many firsts. So did SDP and NSP. the pap cant take any challenge likely from now onwards and that's healthy for SG's political landscape. Some moderate Singaporeans tend to rule out SDP as a credible party. But, SDP is indeed the only party that troubles and taunts the pap leaders with valid questions which the pap wish to avoid. Singaporeans should support the SDP as it's adding tremendous value to the political arena. So I hope that SDP can join the WP and win in a GRC in the next GE.
NSP gains my admiration too. I hope that Nicole doesnt get burnt out and will continue to feature in SG's politics. She is an outstanding lady and my hope is that she can lead NSP in a first NSP GRc win...best if she can win Marine Parade
Well said. The Opposition must continue to be heard, be seen, be active and be positive...Dont be surprised if WP wins three GRCs, SDP wins one GRC, NSP wins one GRC at the next GE. or can there be more wins?
Yes, probably TCB wld have won the Presidential Election if TJS or TKL didnt contest.
But that's water under the bridge. TT's win had made many singaporeans more angry with the pap because many dont see TT as the Elected President when only 35% voted for him. So TT's win can turn out to a curse on the pap in the next GE as the angry Singaporeans will turn their present wrath into pap hatred in GE 2016
Despite TT winning PE 2011 my gut feel is that if Singaporeans have to choose either TT or TCB, TCB will win hands down because of the anti pap fervour in Singapore
TracyTan866 said:
I agree with that. I also got a new sense of the ground from that election. That although TT was a more familiar face than TCB (Colonel Saunders aside) and therefore should have the edge, the change in demography on the ground has made this all irrelevant. This constant change will be something that will return again and again at every future election and will decide the final outcome.
TT did have an edge over TCB. But the pap brand has been so tarnished that TT slipped below TCB in a one-vs-one contest. so pap brand is a liability now. whether it stays this way in 5 years time has yet to be seen
Yes, PAP brand is indeed a liability now. And therefore we should seize this opportunity to chip away at its reputation even more and hopefully in 5 years time, the PAP brand will be torn and tattered. People all over the world are simply fed up with those who had been in power for too long a time but who had done nothing to better the lives of the people and instead enriching the corporations and few wealthy individuals. The Arab Spring is a result of this and see how much changes it had brought to the various dictatorships in the Middle Eastone. The latest anti-Putin protests in Russia is another fine example. And so too is the Occupy Wall Street demonstrators and variants of it across the world. We should ride on this momentum to seize whatever opportunities there are to tell all our friends, relatives, colleagues, acquaintances and even our children and grandchildren how the people had actually suffered under the PAP regime. Point out to them how little the PAP cared for S'poreans but instead implemented policies that only benefit the government-linked companies and foreigners. Highlight to them that the PAP will never change, because their greedy mindsets about enlarging the reserves are simply entrenched. Show to them the eldery ah peks and ah ums who still have to clean up foodcourts, sell tissues and pick up empty cans and cartons despite that they were the ones who helped build up the nation. We must all do our part in order to get the results we all hope to see in the next GE.
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It is so sad that the average singapore has to struggle from cradle to grave because of the greed of the pap and how it has squeezed singaporeans with so many taxes, hidden levies and high cost of living due to pap's governance.
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