- Joined
- Apr 14, 2011
- Messages
- 18,582
- Points
- 113
I just love this President! He is the best!
- Thread starter Leongsam
- Start date
- Joined
- Feb 21, 2015
- Messages
- 5,970
- Points
- 113
Is the man-child the best that America got ? Well , you have to live with it.
This Is What Happens When a Narcissist Runs a Crisis
- Jennifer Senior
Let’s start with the basics.
First: Narcissistic personalities like Trump harbor skyscraping delusions about their own capabilities. They exaggerate their accomplishments, focus obsessively on projecting power, and wish desperately to win.
What that means, during this pandemic: Trump says we’ve got plenty of tests available, when we don’t. He declares that Google is building a comprehensive drive-thru testing website, when it isn’t. He sends a Navy hospital ship to New York and it proves little more than an excuse for a campaign commercial, arriving and sitting almost empty in the Hudson. A New York hospital executive calls it a joke.
Second: The grandiosity of narcissistic personalities belies an extreme fragility, their egos as delicate as foam. They live in terror of being upstaged. They’re too thin skinned to be told they’re wrong.
What that means, during this pandemic: Narcissistic leaders never have, as Trump likes to say, the best people. They have galleries of sycophants. With the exceptions of Drs. Anthony Fauci and Deborah Birx, Trump has surrounded himself with a Z-team of dangerously inexperienced toadies and flunkies — the bargain-bin rejects from Filene’s Basement — at a time when we require the brightest and most imaginative minds in the country. Faced with a historic public health crisis, Trump could have assembled a first-rate company of disaster preparedness experts. Instead he gave the job to his son-in-law, a man-child of breathtaking vapidity. Faced with a historic economic crisis, Trump could have assembled a team of Nobel-prize winning economists or previous treasury secretaries. Instead he talks to Larry Kudlow, a former CNBC host.
Third: Narcissistic personalities love nothing more than engineering conflict and sowing division. It destabilizes everyone, keeps them in control. What that means, during this pandemic: Trump is pitting state against state for precious resources, rather than coordinating a national response. (“It’s like being on eBay,” complained Gov. Andrew Cuomo of New York last week.) His White House is a petty palace of competing power centers. He picks fights with Democratic officials and members of the press, when all the public craves is comfort.Narcissistic personalities don’t do comfort. They cannot fathom the needs of other hearts.
Fourth: Narcissistic personalities are vindictive. On a clear day, you can see their grudges forever.
What that means, during this pandemic: Trump is playing favorites with governors who praise him and punishing those who fail to give him the respect he believes he deserves. “If they don’t treat you right, don’t call,” he told Vice President Mike Pence.
And most relevant, as far as history is concerned: Narcissistic personalities are weak.
What that means, during this pandemic: Trump is genuinely afraid to lead. He can’t bring himself to make robust use of the Defense Production Act, because the buck would stop with him. (To this day, he insists states should be acquiring their own ventilators.) When asked about delays in testing, he said, “I don’t take responsibility at all.” During Friday’s news conference, he added the tests “we inherited were “broken, were obsolete,” when this form of coronavirus didn’t even exist under his predecessor.This sounds an awful lot like one of the three sentences that Homer Simpson swears will get you through life: “It was like that when I got here.”
Most people, even the most hotheaded and difficult ones, have enough space in their souls to set aside their anger in times of crisis. Think of Rudolph Giuliani during Sept. 11. Think of Andrew Cuomo now.
But every aspect of Trump’s crisis management has been annexed by his psychopathology. As Americans die, he boasts about his television ratings. As Americans die, he crows that he’s No. 1 on Facebook, which isn’t close to true.
But it is true that all eyes are on him. He’s got a captive audience, an attention-addict’s dream come to life. It’s just that he, like all narcissistic personalities, has no clue how disgracefully — how shamefully, how deplorably — he’ll be enshrined in memory.
This Is What Happens When a Narcissist Runs a Crisis
- Jennifer Senior
Let’s start with the basics.
First: Narcissistic personalities like Trump harbor skyscraping delusions about their own capabilities. They exaggerate their accomplishments, focus obsessively on projecting power, and wish desperately to win.
What that means, during this pandemic: Trump says we’ve got plenty of tests available, when we don’t. He declares that Google is building a comprehensive drive-thru testing website, when it isn’t. He sends a Navy hospital ship to New York and it proves little more than an excuse for a campaign commercial, arriving and sitting almost empty in the Hudson. A New York hospital executive calls it a joke.
Second: The grandiosity of narcissistic personalities belies an extreme fragility, their egos as delicate as foam. They live in terror of being upstaged. They’re too thin skinned to be told they’re wrong.
What that means, during this pandemic: Narcissistic leaders never have, as Trump likes to say, the best people. They have galleries of sycophants. With the exceptions of Drs. Anthony Fauci and Deborah Birx, Trump has surrounded himself with a Z-team of dangerously inexperienced toadies and flunkies — the bargain-bin rejects from Filene’s Basement — at a time when we require the brightest and most imaginative minds in the country. Faced with a historic public health crisis, Trump could have assembled a first-rate company of disaster preparedness experts. Instead he gave the job to his son-in-law, a man-child of breathtaking vapidity. Faced with a historic economic crisis, Trump could have assembled a team of Nobel-prize winning economists or previous treasury secretaries. Instead he talks to Larry Kudlow, a former CNBC host.
Third: Narcissistic personalities love nothing more than engineering conflict and sowing division. It destabilizes everyone, keeps them in control. What that means, during this pandemic: Trump is pitting state against state for precious resources, rather than coordinating a national response. (“It’s like being on eBay,” complained Gov. Andrew Cuomo of New York last week.) His White House is a petty palace of competing power centers. He picks fights with Democratic officials and members of the press, when all the public craves is comfort.Narcissistic personalities don’t do comfort. They cannot fathom the needs of other hearts.
Fourth: Narcissistic personalities are vindictive. On a clear day, you can see their grudges forever.
What that means, during this pandemic: Trump is playing favorites with governors who praise him and punishing those who fail to give him the respect he believes he deserves. “If they don’t treat you right, don’t call,” he told Vice President Mike Pence.
And most relevant, as far as history is concerned: Narcissistic personalities are weak.
What that means, during this pandemic: Trump is genuinely afraid to lead. He can’t bring himself to make robust use of the Defense Production Act, because the buck would stop with him. (To this day, he insists states should be acquiring their own ventilators.) When asked about delays in testing, he said, “I don’t take responsibility at all.” During Friday’s news conference, he added the tests “we inherited were “broken, were obsolete,” when this form of coronavirus didn’t even exist under his predecessor.This sounds an awful lot like one of the three sentences that Homer Simpson swears will get you through life: “It was like that when I got here.”
Most people, even the most hotheaded and difficult ones, have enough space in their souls to set aside their anger in times of crisis. Think of Rudolph Giuliani during Sept. 11. Think of Andrew Cuomo now.
But every aspect of Trump’s crisis management has been annexed by his psychopathology. As Americans die, he boasts about his television ratings. As Americans die, he crows that he’s No. 1 on Facebook, which isn’t close to true.
But it is true that all eyes are on him. He’s got a captive audience, an attention-addict’s dream come to life. It’s just that he, like all narcissistic personalities, has no clue how disgracefully — how shamefully, how deplorably — he’ll be enshrined in memory.
- Joined
- Apr 14, 2011
- Messages
- 18,582
- Points
- 113
- Joined
- Jul 14, 2008
- Messages
- 90,598
- Points
- 113
I watched an interview on CNN with California governor Gavin Newsom (a democrat), where he said that Trump has provided his state with almost everything they asked for and the White House coronavirus task force has been very responsive to their needs. Anderson Cooper was trying his best to end the interview as quickly as possible................ LOL................ 
- Joined
- Jun 27, 2018
- Messages
- 30,855
- Points
- 113
Trump wont win the next erections. The libturds will b soo happy
US economy faces deep recession because of coronavirus, retail sales fall by record amount
By Sue Lannin and wires
Posted 1 hour ago
A man stands in front of a Modell's store that is closed.
Retail sales in the US fell by a record amount last month.(Reuters: Bryan R Smith)
There's more evidence the US economy is in a deep recession because of government lockdowns and business shutdowns to contain the spread of the coronavirus.
Key points:
The decrease in sales over just one month was almost equal to the 16-month decline during the global financial crisis
The International Monetary Fund has predicted the worst year for the world economy since the Great Depression
Wall Street plunged on the dire economic news
Retail sales in the US fell by a record amount last month and factory production slumped by the most since 1946.
Sales plunged by 8.7 per cent last month, the biggest decline on record, according to the US Commerce Department. They fell by 6.2 per cent over the year to March.
The $US46.2 billion decrease in sales over just one month was almost equal to the $US49.1 billion peak-to-trough decline that unfolded over 16 months during the global financial crisis from 2008 to 2009.
Car sales and takings at restaurants and bars slumped by more than a quarter last month, spending at petrol stations fell 17 per cent, furniture sales slid 27 per cent, and clothing sales were down by half because of the closure of non-essential businesses.
But spending on groceries and online shopping surged, with "core" retail sales up 1.7 per cent over the month as consumers stocked up on essentials like food and cleaning materials.
Grocery sales soared nearly 27 per cent and sales at healthcare stores rose 4.3 per cent.
Manufacturing production plummeted 6.3 per cent in March, the biggest decrease since February 1946.
Factory activity in New York slumped to a record low in April, declining by nearly 80 per cent as the state bore the brunt of the coronavirus toll in the country.
In addition, the US central bank, the Federal Reserve, said in its "Beige Book" report for April, "economic activity contracted sharply and abruptly across all regions in the United States as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic".
'Things will plainly never be the same again'
The International Monetary Fund sees the US economy shrinking by 5.9 per cent in 2020 and has predicted the worst year for the world economy since the Great Depression nearly a century ago.
Millions of Americans have lost their jobs because of the rapid spread of the virus in the US as states and local governments issue stay-at-home or shelter-in-place orders affecting more than 90 per cent of Americans.
The extraordinary measures to curb the spread of COVID-19 have crippled the US economy.
Chris Rupkey, chief economist at MUFG Union Bank in New York, said the possibility of a depression, a prolonged and severe economic downturn last seen globally in the 1930s, couldn't be ruled out.
"Economists have long imagined over the years what a new Great Depression would look like, but today they can stop thinking about it," he said.
"Things will plainly never be the same again for consumers and factories where everyone in the country will have to make do with less."
Wall Street plunged on the dire economic news and dismal quarterly profit results from the banks.
Major US lenders have set aside billions of dollars to prepare for an expected flood of loan defaults as the coronavirus pandemic halts business activity.
Shares of Bank of America and Citigroup Inc dropped as they reported a slump in first-quarter profit.
And Wall Street titan Goldman Sachs saw quarterly profit nearly halve as it set aside more money to cover for corporate loans expected to go bust. It also made heavy losses on its debt and equity investments.
It may be the 'worst year in the history of global oil markets'
Energy stocks also took a hit as oil prices slumped.
Brent crude fell almost 6 per cent to $US28.00 a barrel as the International Energy Agency boss, Fatih Birol, warned April could be the worst month ever seen by the oil industry as demand plunged because of coronavirus shutdowns.
A closed Club Monaco store is covered in plywood, as retail sales suffer record drop during the outbreak.
Sales plunged by 8.7 per cent last month, the biggest decline on record, according to the US Commerce Department.(Reuters: Bryan R Smith)
He also warned the industry could run out of places to store oil supplies.
"In a few years' time, when we look back on 2020, we may well see that it was the worst year in the history of global oil markets," he told reporters.
"During that terrible year, the second quarter may well have been the worst of the lot.
"During that quarter, April may well have been the worst month — it may go down as Black April in the history of the oil industry."
West Texas crude oil lost its gains and ended steady at $US20.11.
The Dow Jones index fell 1.9 per cent or 445 points to 23,504.
The S&P 500 fell 2.2 per cent or 63 points to 2,783 while the Nasdaq slid 123 points or 1.4 per cent to 8,393.
European stocks also ended in the red. The FTSE 100 index in London lost more than 3 per cent or 194 points to 5,598.
The Australian market was down 2 per cent in futures trade and the Australian dollar was sold off overnight by nearly 2 per cent to 63.2 US cents.
Spot gold slipped $12 to $US1715 an ounce.
G20 to suspend debt repayments for poorest countries
Meanwhile, the Group of 20 (G20) major economies will suspend debt repayments for the world's poorest countries from next month until the end of the year because of the coronavirus crisis.
The announcement came after G20 finance ministers and central bank governors held a virtual meeting overnight.
The move will free up more than $30 billion (AUD) for developing nations to spend on improving their health systems and fighting the pandemic.
German Finance Minister Olaf Scholz called the move "an act of international solidarity with a historical dimension", adding it would let the countries invest in health care "immediately and without time-consuming, case-by-case examination".
The offer has also been backed by hundreds of private creditors and is part of global efforts to help the world's economy.
The world's poorest and least-developed countries on debt service agreements with the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank will be eligible for the debt relief.
US economy faces deep recession because of coronavirus, retail sales fall by record amount
By Sue Lannin and wires
Posted 1 hour ago
A man stands in front of a Modell's store that is closed.
Retail sales in the US fell by a record amount last month.(Reuters: Bryan R Smith)
There's more evidence the US economy is in a deep recession because of government lockdowns and business shutdowns to contain the spread of the coronavirus.
Key points:
The decrease in sales over just one month was almost equal to the 16-month decline during the global financial crisis
The International Monetary Fund has predicted the worst year for the world economy since the Great Depression
Wall Street plunged on the dire economic news
Retail sales in the US fell by a record amount last month and factory production slumped by the most since 1946.
Sales plunged by 8.7 per cent last month, the biggest decline on record, according to the US Commerce Department. They fell by 6.2 per cent over the year to March.
The $US46.2 billion decrease in sales over just one month was almost equal to the $US49.1 billion peak-to-trough decline that unfolded over 16 months during the global financial crisis from 2008 to 2009.
Car sales and takings at restaurants and bars slumped by more than a quarter last month, spending at petrol stations fell 17 per cent, furniture sales slid 27 per cent, and clothing sales were down by half because of the closure of non-essential businesses.
But spending on groceries and online shopping surged, with "core" retail sales up 1.7 per cent over the month as consumers stocked up on essentials like food and cleaning materials.
Grocery sales soared nearly 27 per cent and sales at healthcare stores rose 4.3 per cent.
Manufacturing production plummeted 6.3 per cent in March, the biggest decrease since February 1946.
Factory activity in New York slumped to a record low in April, declining by nearly 80 per cent as the state bore the brunt of the coronavirus toll in the country.
In addition, the US central bank, the Federal Reserve, said in its "Beige Book" report for April, "economic activity contracted sharply and abruptly across all regions in the United States as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic".
'Things will plainly never be the same again'
The International Monetary Fund sees the US economy shrinking by 5.9 per cent in 2020 and has predicted the worst year for the world economy since the Great Depression nearly a century ago.
Millions of Americans have lost their jobs because of the rapid spread of the virus in the US as states and local governments issue stay-at-home or shelter-in-place orders affecting more than 90 per cent of Americans.
The extraordinary measures to curb the spread of COVID-19 have crippled the US economy.
Chris Rupkey, chief economist at MUFG Union Bank in New York, said the possibility of a depression, a prolonged and severe economic downturn last seen globally in the 1930s, couldn't be ruled out.
"Economists have long imagined over the years what a new Great Depression would look like, but today they can stop thinking about it," he said.
"Things will plainly never be the same again for consumers and factories where everyone in the country will have to make do with less."
Wall Street plunged on the dire economic news and dismal quarterly profit results from the banks.
Major US lenders have set aside billions of dollars to prepare for an expected flood of loan defaults as the coronavirus pandemic halts business activity.
Shares of Bank of America and Citigroup Inc dropped as they reported a slump in first-quarter profit.
And Wall Street titan Goldman Sachs saw quarterly profit nearly halve as it set aside more money to cover for corporate loans expected to go bust. It also made heavy losses on its debt and equity investments.
It may be the 'worst year in the history of global oil markets'
Energy stocks also took a hit as oil prices slumped.
Brent crude fell almost 6 per cent to $US28.00 a barrel as the International Energy Agency boss, Fatih Birol, warned April could be the worst month ever seen by the oil industry as demand plunged because of coronavirus shutdowns.
A closed Club Monaco store is covered in plywood, as retail sales suffer record drop during the outbreak.
Sales plunged by 8.7 per cent last month, the biggest decline on record, according to the US Commerce Department.(Reuters: Bryan R Smith)
He also warned the industry could run out of places to store oil supplies.
"In a few years' time, when we look back on 2020, we may well see that it was the worst year in the history of global oil markets," he told reporters.
"During that terrible year, the second quarter may well have been the worst of the lot.
"During that quarter, April may well have been the worst month — it may go down as Black April in the history of the oil industry."
West Texas crude oil lost its gains and ended steady at $US20.11.
The Dow Jones index fell 1.9 per cent or 445 points to 23,504.
The S&P 500 fell 2.2 per cent or 63 points to 2,783 while the Nasdaq slid 123 points or 1.4 per cent to 8,393.
European stocks also ended in the red. The FTSE 100 index in London lost more than 3 per cent or 194 points to 5,598.
The Australian market was down 2 per cent in futures trade and the Australian dollar was sold off overnight by nearly 2 per cent to 63.2 US cents.
Spot gold slipped $12 to $US1715 an ounce.
G20 to suspend debt repayments for poorest countries
Meanwhile, the Group of 20 (G20) major economies will suspend debt repayments for the world's poorest countries from next month until the end of the year because of the coronavirus crisis.
The announcement came after G20 finance ministers and central bank governors held a virtual meeting overnight.
The move will free up more than $30 billion (AUD) for developing nations to spend on improving their health systems and fighting the pandemic.
German Finance Minister Olaf Scholz called the move "an act of international solidarity with a historical dimension", adding it would let the countries invest in health care "immediately and without time-consuming, case-by-case examination".
The offer has also been backed by hundreds of private creditors and is part of global efforts to help the world's economy.
The world's poorest and least-developed countries on debt service agreements with the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank will be eligible for the debt relief.
- Joined
- Jul 10, 2008
- Messages
- 65,559
- Points
- 113
Goldman Boldly Predicts Strongest Stock Market Rebound in U.S. History, This Year
Published: April 15, 2020 8:42 AM UTC
4-5 minutes
In a note to clients, Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius said that the optimism towards the stock market and economy is partly related to coronavirus, which raises the probability that the markets may not see another leg down.
Stock market bottom could be in, Wall Street argues
Up until March, the expectations of investors towards a firm stock market rally were heavily dependent on the aggressive fiscal policy of the Federal Reserve.
U.S. stock market en route for a perfect V-shape recovery | Source: Yahoo Finance
The Fed and the Treasury have said that they will carry out any operation that is possible to ensure the market has sufficient liquidity to last through the coronavirus pandemic.
The contrasting approach of the Fed in 2020, when compared with the 2008 financial crisis and the 2019 stock market slump, brought back the confidence of investors in the medium to long-term trend of equities.
U.S. President Donald Trump has also solidified his stance that he has the complete authority to reopen the U.S. economy, a topic that was addressed during a call between top Wall Street executives and the President in late March.
President Donald Trump held the first coronavirus briefing at the White House in Washington, Saturday, Feb. 29, 2020. | Source: AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster
While the number of confirmed coronavirus cases has surpassed 600,000 in the U.S., some virus hotspots like California are projected to reach their peak in the short-term.
California is anticipated to record 66 new deaths on April 15, which the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation has marked as a projected peak for the state.
Strong monetary policy, large-scale stimulus, some progress in containing coronavirus, and the willingness of President Trump to reopen the economy as soon as possible are raising the confidence of major financial institutions in the U.S. for a rapid stock market recovery.
Further, the Goldman Sachs economist also pointed towards the sharp decline in new hospitalizations in New York City and a noticeable drop in healthcare usage as positive indicators that the U.S. is moving towards the peak of the coronavirus outbreak.
All major banks are optimistic in the U.S.
As CCN.com reported on April 14, virtually all major financial institutions in the U.S., including Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase & Co., and Piper Sandler, believe the bottom of the stock market is in.
Some economists at JPMorgan, the biggest bank in the U.S., predicted that the U.S. stock market would see record highs in 2021, a contrasting forecast from that of CEO Jamie Dimon in the first week of April.
In a letter to investors dated April 6, JPMorgan chairman and CEO Jamie Dimon said that the stock market is likely to see a 2008-esque correction in the near-term.
Dimon stated:
The 180-degree shift in the stance of Wall Street giants shows that investors are regaining appetite for U.S. stocks once again.
Published: April 15, 2020 8:42 AM UTC
4-5 minutes
- In a 180-degree turn, Goldman Sachs and other major banks say the U.S. stock market is set to see an explosive recovery.
- By the 2nd half of 2020, economists foresee the strongest stocks rebound in the history of the country.
- Declining hospitalizations and President Trump’s intent to open the economy as soon as possible has Wall Street jubilated.
In a note to clients, Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius said that the optimism towards the stock market and economy is partly related to coronavirus, which raises the probability that the markets may not see another leg down.
Stock market bottom could be in, Wall Street argues
Up until March, the expectations of investors towards a firm stock market rally were heavily dependent on the aggressive fiscal policy of the Federal Reserve.
The Fed and the Treasury have said that they will carry out any operation that is possible to ensure the market has sufficient liquidity to last through the coronavirus pandemic.
The contrasting approach of the Fed in 2020, when compared with the 2008 financial crisis and the 2019 stock market slump, brought back the confidence of investors in the medium to long-term trend of equities.
U.S. President Donald Trump has also solidified his stance that he has the complete authority to reopen the U.S. economy, a topic that was addressed during a call between top Wall Street executives and the President in late March.
President Donald Trump held the first coronavirus briefing at the White House in Washington, Saturday, Feb. 29, 2020. | Source: AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster
While the number of confirmed coronavirus cases has surpassed 600,000 in the U.S., some virus hotspots like California are projected to reach their peak in the short-term.
California is anticipated to record 66 new deaths on April 15, which the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation has marked as a projected peak for the state.
Strong monetary policy, large-scale stimulus, some progress in containing coronavirus, and the willingness of President Trump to reopen the economy as soon as possible are raising the confidence of major financial institutions in the U.S. for a rapid stock market recovery.
Further, the Goldman Sachs economist also pointed towards the sharp decline in new hospitalizations in New York City and a noticeable drop in healthcare usage as positive indicators that the U.S. is moving towards the peak of the coronavirus outbreak.
All major banks are optimistic in the U.S.
As CCN.com reported on April 14, virtually all major financial institutions in the U.S., including Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase & Co., and Piper Sandler, believe the bottom of the stock market is in.
Some economists at JPMorgan, the biggest bank in the U.S., predicted that the U.S. stock market would see record highs in 2021, a contrasting forecast from that of CEO Jamie Dimon in the first week of April.
In a letter to investors dated April 6, JPMorgan chairman and CEO Jamie Dimon said that the stock market is likely to see a 2008-esque correction in the near-term.
Dimon stated:
The 180-degree shift in the stance of Wall Street giants shows that investors are regaining appetite for U.S. stocks once again.
- Joined
- Jul 10, 2008
- Messages
- 65,559
- Points
- 113
newsweek.com
Economy will rebound in time for election after short, sharp recession, Newsweek poll says
Pronita Naidu
6-7 minutes
The coronavirus pandemic is plunging the United States into a recession that could be as sharp as the 2008 financial crash, although the economy will likely rebound before President Donald Trump faces re-election in November, according to economists polled by Newsweek.
In a poll conducted on Monday, all 15 economists said they expected the economy to shrink sharply in the second quarter, ending the longest expansion in American history.
Five analysts forecast contraction in the first quarter as well, after the Trump administration and state and local governments imposed restrictions on travel and large gatherings, shutting down swaths of the economy to stop the spread of the deadly virus.
"The negative shock to the U.S. economy is severely affecting and interrupting the normal activities of all citizens and businesses," Berenberg said in its research note.
The German bank expects a sharp contraction of U.S. economic activity and gross domestic product through midyear. It forecast the first-quarter annualized growth rate to decline 4.5 percent from the previous quarter and the second quarter to dip 11.7 percent. Real GDP decreased at an annual rate of 5.5 percent in the first quarter of 2009 and dipped 0.7 percent in the second quarter of that year.
Nine of the 15 economists in the poll expect a recovery to begin in the third quarter. "This is based on an assumption that we start to see restrictions eased at some point in 3Q [third quarter], which is of course highly speculative," said James Knightley, ING's chief international economist.
"I would imagine President Trump would be very keen to see lives returning to normal by the time of the election," he added. Knightley expects an 8.6 percent annualized GDP decline in the second quarter, relative to the 4.4 percent decline experienced in Q1 2009 and an 8.4 percent drop in Q4 2008.
All the analysts forecast a rebound during the fourth quarter, well in time for the presidential election on November 3.
"The forecast assumes that we bottom out in April or May and gradually recover by the end of the year, but at a lower level than we started the year," said Scott Brown, chief economist at Raymond James. He expects real GDP to decline 12.5 percent in Q2 2020.
Trump has made the record-breaking economic expansion (which began under his predecessor, Barack Obama) and a 50-year low in unemployment a central part of his pitch to voters. The U.S. economy created 273,000 jobs in February, 100,000 more than expected, showing that employers were hiring at full steam before the pandemic restrictions kicked in.
While GDP is expected to recover quickly, the impact of the restrictions, which include bans on travel from Europe, closures of bars and restaurants, and cancellation of sporting and entertainment events, will ripple through the job market for longer.
"Given this drop in GDP, wages are expected to stagnate or decline," said Zachary Feinstein, an assistant professor at the Stevens Institute of Technology. He predicted higher levels of unemployment in some communities.
The shock of the recession, job losses and stagnant wages will affect the recovery well into the next president's term.
"The recession's malaise may linger, keeping households feeling subdued in regards to their own economic/financial prospects even though the recovery has already started," said Sam Bullard, a senior economist at Wells Fargo Securities.
Nearly two-thirds, or 65 percent, of registered voters of all political affiliations say President Donald Trump will "definitely" or "probably will" defeat whoever the Democratic challenger is against him in November, a CBS News/YouGov poll said. JOE RAEDLE / Staff/Getty images
These long-term effects will create a political problem for Trump. When voters go to the polls in November, much of the media coverage will still be focused on economic and job market data from the previous months. Because of the delays in gathering and reporting such data, the headlines will almost certainly be grim. In the meantime, leading indicators such as consumer confidence will still look bleak.
"By the November election, the worst may be behind us, but the recovery won't be materially showing in the lagging data," said Derek Holt, head of capital markets economics at ScotiaBank. He expects full-year GDP to decline for the first time since 2009.
The strength and the timing of the recovery will largely depend on the degree to which the government supports businesses and consumers affected by the recession.
"The weaker the support, the weaker the economy will be in October. The bill before Congress right now is inadequate. The support it provides for individuals is too short—it should be four months, not two weeks—and the support it provides businesses is inadequate," said Bert Brenner, director of asset allocation at People's United Advisors.
The House passed an economic relief bill on Saturday, funding paid sick and family leave, unemployment insurance and a free coronavirus test, along with other measures to help fight the crisis.
Republican senators are holding up the bill's approval, saying it would add to the burden on businesses.
In addition, the Federal Reserve slashed interest rates to 0-0.25 percent over the weekend—a level reached during the last financial crisis—and announced a $700 billion asset purchase program to support the economy.
The government's response will be almost as important a factor for voters as the state of the economy, said Michael Poutre, managing partner at Terraform Capital.
"It is a crapshoot to determine what the right moves are, but people will take that into account," Poutre said. "Historically, in times of crisis, people don't change, so Trump's chances, by default, look better for staying in office."
Economy will rebound in time for election after short, sharp recession, Newsweek poll says
Pronita Naidu
6-7 minutes
The coronavirus pandemic is plunging the United States into a recession that could be as sharp as the 2008 financial crash, although the economy will likely rebound before President Donald Trump faces re-election in November, according to economists polled by Newsweek.
In a poll conducted on Monday, all 15 economists said they expected the economy to shrink sharply in the second quarter, ending the longest expansion in American history.
Five analysts forecast contraction in the first quarter as well, after the Trump administration and state and local governments imposed restrictions on travel and large gatherings, shutting down swaths of the economy to stop the spread of the deadly virus.
"The negative shock to the U.S. economy is severely affecting and interrupting the normal activities of all citizens and businesses," Berenberg said in its research note.
The German bank expects a sharp contraction of U.S. economic activity and gross domestic product through midyear. It forecast the first-quarter annualized growth rate to decline 4.5 percent from the previous quarter and the second quarter to dip 11.7 percent. Real GDP decreased at an annual rate of 5.5 percent in the first quarter of 2009 and dipped 0.7 percent in the second quarter of that year.
Nine of the 15 economists in the poll expect a recovery to begin in the third quarter. "This is based on an assumption that we start to see restrictions eased at some point in 3Q [third quarter], which is of course highly speculative," said James Knightley, ING's chief international economist.
"I would imagine President Trump would be very keen to see lives returning to normal by the time of the election," he added. Knightley expects an 8.6 percent annualized GDP decline in the second quarter, relative to the 4.4 percent decline experienced in Q1 2009 and an 8.4 percent drop in Q4 2008.
All the analysts forecast a rebound during the fourth quarter, well in time for the presidential election on November 3.
"The forecast assumes that we bottom out in April or May and gradually recover by the end of the year, but at a lower level than we started the year," said Scott Brown, chief economist at Raymond James. He expects real GDP to decline 12.5 percent in Q2 2020.
Trump has made the record-breaking economic expansion (which began under his predecessor, Barack Obama) and a 50-year low in unemployment a central part of his pitch to voters. The U.S. economy created 273,000 jobs in February, 100,000 more than expected, showing that employers were hiring at full steam before the pandemic restrictions kicked in.
While GDP is expected to recover quickly, the impact of the restrictions, which include bans on travel from Europe, closures of bars and restaurants, and cancellation of sporting and entertainment events, will ripple through the job market for longer.
"Given this drop in GDP, wages are expected to stagnate or decline," said Zachary Feinstein, an assistant professor at the Stevens Institute of Technology. He predicted higher levels of unemployment in some communities.
The shock of the recession, job losses and stagnant wages will affect the recovery well into the next president's term.
"The recession's malaise may linger, keeping households feeling subdued in regards to their own economic/financial prospects even though the recovery has already started," said Sam Bullard, a senior economist at Wells Fargo Securities.
These long-term effects will create a political problem for Trump. When voters go to the polls in November, much of the media coverage will still be focused on economic and job market data from the previous months. Because of the delays in gathering and reporting such data, the headlines will almost certainly be grim. In the meantime, leading indicators such as consumer confidence will still look bleak.
"By the November election, the worst may be behind us, but the recovery won't be materially showing in the lagging data," said Derek Holt, head of capital markets economics at ScotiaBank. He expects full-year GDP to decline for the first time since 2009.
The strength and the timing of the recovery will largely depend on the degree to which the government supports businesses and consumers affected by the recession.
"The weaker the support, the weaker the economy will be in October. The bill before Congress right now is inadequate. The support it provides for individuals is too short—it should be four months, not two weeks—and the support it provides businesses is inadequate," said Bert Brenner, director of asset allocation at People's United Advisors.
The House passed an economic relief bill on Saturday, funding paid sick and family leave, unemployment insurance and a free coronavirus test, along with other measures to help fight the crisis.
Republican senators are holding up the bill's approval, saying it would add to the burden on businesses.
In addition, the Federal Reserve slashed interest rates to 0-0.25 percent over the weekend—a level reached during the last financial crisis—and announced a $700 billion asset purchase program to support the economy.
The government's response will be almost as important a factor for voters as the state of the economy, said Michael Poutre, managing partner at Terraform Capital.
"It is a crapshoot to determine what the right moves are, but people will take that into account," Poutre said. "Historically, in times of crisis, people don't change, so Trump's chances, by default, look better for staying in office."
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