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初選後若還脫黨參選，將如同政治自殺
聯合報社論
62 人追蹤
聯合報 社論2019年7月12日 下午4:07
國民黨總統初選民調激烈，領先群的韓國瑜（右）和郭台銘陣營在選後能不能整合，各方關注。 圖／聯合報系資料照片
國民黨總統初選民調已進行四天，隨著各種傳聞不斷，候選人和支持者的緊張較勁也進入一個高潮。其間，各種焦慮傾洩而出：有人擔心黨中央不公，揚言民調公布日要包圍中央黨部；有人擔心落敗者心有不甘，可能脫黨參選造成藍營分裂；也有激情粉絲在公開場合互嗆叫罵，留下負面印象。這些狀況，都讓藍營備感憂心。然而，卅年來飽嘗分裂及內鬥之苦的國民黨，真的沒有從失敗中學到一點教訓嗎？
這次國民黨初選的激烈景象雖令藍營支持者心焦，事實上，未必全然要從負面解讀。原因有三：其一，藍軍展現了更強的戰鬥意志，一掃上次大選的怯戰；其二，是擺脫了傳統菁英接班交班的模式，基層支持者自發性的動員更顯踴躍；其三，比起民進黨初選時一再為蔡英文量身修改規則，國民黨中央儘管戰略被動，但未有明顯偏頗。以上三點，都可以看出國民黨因應改變的跡象，候選人間的競爭雖激烈，五個人仍維持基本的節制，這是好現象。
真正的關鍵在，俟下周一民調結果確定由誰勝出後，黨內要如何收拾初選恩怨，並重新整合出一支團結對外作戰的隊伍。其中，除了黨中央必須展現積極作為，有很大部分的責任是繫於初選的勝利者；屆時，才是嚴酷挑戰的開始。這次初選，黨中央的角色顯得消極，主要是領先群的韓國瑜和郭台銘陣營都頗為強勢，自主性甚高。在這種情況下，黨中央非僅無從插手，甚至往往夾在兩軍之間左右為難。但初選之後，黨中央和候選人之間應如何分工合作，必須要有更明確的整合；否則，恐不足以迎戰蔡英文挾政府及綠營各種黨政資源鋪天蓋地的明槍暗箭圍剿。
從蔡英文利用各種小動作扳倒賴清德的過程，不難看出，下周藍營不論由誰勝出代表出征，勢必面對比賴清德險惡千百倍的打壓和抹黑。這點，絲毫沒有儌倖或天真的餘地。亦即，敵人是在黨外而不在黨內；藍軍要取回執政權，除了團結，別無他途。更殘酷地說，國民黨團結都不一定贏得了選舉，如果分裂，那就只能準備讓台灣再接受蔡英文四年的凌遲。試問，這會是藍營任何候選人想看到的結局嗎？
如此淺顯的道理，連一般民眾都一望即知，正在角逐大位的人不可能不理解，甚或存有任何妄想。也因此，近來有些傳聞，稱誰若未獲提名極可能自行脫黨參選云云，應該只是某種選戰策略或選舉謠言，並不像是可能會發生的事。理由很清楚：候選人既然參加了黨內初選，就是要接受並尊重政黨規範的這套遊戲規則。如果竟因未獲提名便輕率脫黨參選，不啻向社會大眾公開自證沒有運動家精神，這和政治自殺將沒有兩樣。
此外，國民黨內另有些耳語，稱如果初選勝出的人隨後遭到對手攻擊抹黑，因而民調下降；有人心存妄想，以為可以再來個第二次「換柱事件」，由自己取而代之。說實在，如此詭異的念頭，不僅太把政黨政治當兒戲，也低估了選民的智慧與感情。「換柱事件」在政治上是一次難看的醜聞，若竟有人以為這種事可以再上演一次，這種人該被掃入歷史的垃圾堆。
只剩三天民調，國民黨初選結果即將揭曉，各候選人的焦慮可想而知。也正因為情勢緊繃，任何陣營若有過激動作，極可能引發社會大眾的反感，結果反會有失分效果。也因此，各陣營必須維持克制與理性，並極力思考未來進一步整合的可能和贏的策略；唯有使藍軍陣容變得更強大，才有可能應付綠營的殘酷攻擊。
無論如何，國民黨不能只把二○二○大選當成贏回自己政權的契機，也要將它視為政黨體質改造的機會。更重要的，是要認真思考自己與台灣社會及國家前途的關係；若一心只想著個人欲望和權位，將被民眾唾棄。
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今日推薦影音
If you still leave the party after the primary election, it will be like political suicide.
Union News
62 people tracking
United Daily News, July 12, 2019, 4:07 PM
The Kuomintang presidential primaries were fierce, and the leading group of South Korea Yu (right) and Guo Taiming camps could not be integrated after the election. Map/Joint Newsletter Photo
The Kuomintang presidential primaries were fierce, and the leading group of South Korea Yu (right) and Guo Taiming camps could not be integrated after the election. Map/Joint Newsletter Photo
The Kuomintang presidential primaries have been held for four days. With all kinds of rumors, the tension between candidates and supporters has also entered a climax. In the meantime, all kinds of anxiety came out: some people worried that the party Central Committee was unfair, and threatened to announce that the day was to be surrounded by the Central Party Department. Some people worried that the losers were unwilling, and that they might be separated from the party and caused the blue camp to split. The occasions shouted and left a negative impression. These conditions have made Blue Camp feel worried. However, the Kuomintang, which has suffered from splitting and fighting in the past few years, really did not learn a lesson from failure.
Although the fierce scene of the Kuomintang primary election has made the blue camp supporters focus, in fact, it may not be completely negative. There are three reasons: First, the Blue Army has shown a stronger will to fight, sweeping away the battle of the last election; the second is to get rid of the traditional elites to take over the shift, and the spontaneous mobilization of grassroots supporters is more active; Third, compared with the DPP primary election, Tsai Ing-wen has repeatedly revised the rules. The KMT Central Committee has not been significantly biased despite its passive strategy. From the above three points, we can see that the Kuomintang has shown signs of change. Although the competition among the candidates is fierce, the five people still maintain basic moderation. This is a good phenomenon.
The real key is that next week, the results of the poll will determine who wins, how to clean up the primaries in the party, and re-integrate a team that unites with foreign operations. Among them, in addition to the party Central Committee must demonstrate positive behavior, a large part of the responsibility is tied to the winner of the primary election; then, is the beginning of a severe challenge. In this primaries, the role of the Party Central Committee appeared to be negative. The main reason was that the leading Korean Yu and Guo Taiming camps were quite strong and highly independent. Under this circumstance, the party Central Committee is not only unable to intervene, and it is often even caught between the two armies. However, after the primary election, how to divide the work and cooperation between the Party Central Committee and the candidates must have a clearer integration; otherwise, it may not be enough to meet the overwhelming tactics of the Cai Yingying government and the various party and government resources of the Green Camp.
From Tsai Ing-wen's use of various small actions to overthrow Lai Qingde's process, it is not difficult to see that next week, regardless of who wins the blue squad, it is bound to face the sinister suppression and smear of Lai Qingde. There is no luck or naivety in this regard. That is to say, the enemy is outside the party and not inside the party; the blue army has to take back the ruling power, and there is no other way than unity. To be more cruel, the Kuomintang unity does not necessarily win the election. If it is divided, it will only be prepared to let Taiwan accept the four years of Tsai Ing-wen. I would like to ask, will this be the ending that any candidate in Blue Camp wants to see?
Such a simple truth, even the general public can see at a glance, people who are competing for a big position can not understand, or even have any delusions. Therefore, there have been some recent rumors that it is not a possible election strategy or election rumor if it is not possible to be nominated, and it is not something that might happen. The reason is very clear: since the candidate has participated in the party's primary election, he has to accept and respect the rules of the game. If they are rashly dismissed from the party because they have not been nominated, they will not openly prove themselves to the public without a sportsmanship. This will be no different from political suicide.
In addition, there are other whispers in the Kuomintang, saying that if the winner of the primary election is subsequently attacked by opponents, the polls will drop; some people will think about it and think that they can come back for a second "column change event" and replace it with themselves. To be honest, such a strange thought not only makes party politics too much, but also underestimates the wisdom and feelings of voters. The "column change incident" is an ugly scandal in politics. If someone thinks that this kind of thing can be staged again, such a person should be swept into the garbage of history.
With only three days left, the results of the Kuomintang primary election will be announced soon, and the anxiety of each candidate can be imagined. It is also because of the tight situation, if any camp has been over-excited, it is likely to cause resentment of the public, and the result will be a loss of points. Therefore, each camp must maintain restraint and rationality, and try to think about the possibility of future integration and the strategy of winning; only by making the Blue Army lineup stronger, it is possible to cope with the brutal attacks of the Green Camp.
In any case, the Kuomintang cannot only regard the 2020 general election as an opportunity to win back its own political power, but also regard it as an opportunity for the constitutional transformation of the party. More importantly, we must seriously consider our relationship with Taiwan's society and the future of the country; if we only think about personal desires and powers, we will be cast aside by the people.
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