https://news.sina.com.cn/c/2019-05-20/doc-ihvhiqay0089014.shtml
美国一个芯片能治住中国？金一南:特朗普懂这个吗
美国一个芯片能治住中国？金一南:特朗普懂这个吗
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原标题：金一南少将：有人说美国太厉害了，一个芯片就能把中国治住，但特朗普懂这个吗？
近日，中国华为公司创始人兼总裁
任正非先生，在深圳华为总部接受了日本媒体《日本经济新闻》的采访，不仅回应了美国最近再次对华为下杀招，想封杀华为业务的做法，而且这些回应的每一条都非常给力。
任正非在采访中提到，即便高通和其他美国供应商不向华为出售芯片，华为也“没问题”，因为“我们已经为此做好了准备”。
我们今天的学者在讲什么？中等收入陷阱、马尔萨斯人口陷阱、金德尔伯格陷阱……学者告诉我们企业家全是陷阱，寸步难行，太危险了。你看看任正非、高德康、李书福这些人怎么回答的？都是问题，愁死你了，干才是答案，做才是最终的目的。
阿富汗战乱时，任正非去看望过员工。利比亚开战前两天，他还在利比亚，任正非说，“我若贪生怕死，何来让你去英勇奋斗？”
什么叫中国企业家精神？这是经济理论能解释的吗？这就是中美贸易博弈，我们中方的优势，中国社会、中国人这种勤劳勇敢，这种创新能力无可替代，这是我们最大的优势、最大的资本。任正非讲：“除了胜利我们已经无路可走。”这话已经超越我们现有的经济理论。
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贸易摩擦是一个很重要的方面，但不止于此。中美关系是今天世界上最复杂也是最重要的一对大国关系。以往所有国家的关系，都无法解释今天的中美关系。
这对大国关系经历了怎样的过程？这里简要回顾一下历史：
50年代、60年代中美关系互相对抗，朝鲜战争、越南战争都是这样，当时双方关系的火药味很浓；
70年代、80年代中美关系改善，基辛格秘密访华，尼克松公开访华，基础是什么？基础就是共同对付苏联，对抗北方那个在蒙古陈兵百万的社会帝国主义，我们也需要减缓东面美国给我们的压力，所以中美关系一拍即合。
中美关系一定要有基础，基础一旦崩盘就会出问题。1991年苏联解体，关系基础失去了，然后怎么办？双方的经贸关系合作就变成了新的压舱石。
这个压舱石非常典型。我们今天很多人讲中美关系正在恢复新的冷战，我说，中美不可能进行新的冷战。
你看冷战时期的美国、苏联，双方都有完全独立的政治阵营，一方是社会主义阵营，一方是资本主义阵营，一个华约，一个北约，完全不同的军事组织和经济团体。高峰时期，美苏贸易额只占美国贸易总量的0.8%，这是两个几乎不搭界的世界啊。这是标准的冷战。
今天中美关系是新的冷战吗？有独立的政治集团吗？有独立的经济组织吗？什么都没有。中国采取了全新的政策，融入世界，跟他混在一起。我们现在是美国第一大贸易伙伴，双方贸易总额6300亿美元，占美国贸易总额16%以上，加上港澳台，占20%。
美国经济界有个测算，一个国家占美国贸易总量7%，说明这个国家与美国有重大利害关系，不仅有必要建立紧密的政治关系，维护这个经济利益。
中国还是美国国债最大的持有者，将近12000亿美元。这些都是苏联时期完全不具备的。以往所有国家的关系，都无法解释今天中美这种非常复杂的关系。怎么处理？非常难，对美国政治家来说也非常难。
克林顿提出什么呢？对付苏联很简单，瞄准它，收拾它，全面对抗。对付中国，克林顿提出，通过“接触”改变他们，不管是通过网络、媒体还是企业发展、中产的形成。结果克林顿搞了八年“接触”，中国没有改变。
小布什上台，说克林顿这套不行，于是提出“遏制”。然后遏制也遏制不成，中美依然保持深度的经济交往。
轮到奥巴马，他创造了一个新词——“接触性遏制，遏制性接触”，先接触再遏制，先遏制再接触，非常复杂的关系。
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而在这个时期，中国的发展举世瞩目。仅从经济总量来说，1978年3000多亿人民币的产值，1989年16900亿，2017年827100亿，这种经济增长的速度，全世界没有先例。
1978年邓小平同志访问美国，就是为了筹措外汇，非常困难。1978年的外汇储备是5亿美元，今天是3万亿美元。你看我们1978年的窘迫和现在的状态。1981年里根担任美国总统时，中国经济规模还不到美国的10%，现在接近70%。这是按照美元计算。
哈佛大学国际事务中心的埃里森讲，按照国际购买力平价，2014年中国经济与美国持平，2017年中国经济已是美国经济的114%。埃里森说，一个1980年未出现在任何排名的国家，如今跃升至世界经济前列，这国家怎么回事？
今天我们有人说，中美贸易摩擦是因为我们把美国人惹了，美国终于警觉了。我说，哪有这么简单的事？美国长期关注我们，一直在盯着我们。
2007年美国是130个国家最大的贸易伙伴，中国是70个国家最大的贸易伙伴；2017年中国是130个国家最大的贸易伙伴，美国是70个国家最大的贸易伙伴。十年翻盘！美国人一看这个趋势，你要超越我。根据美方统计，2017年美国全年贸易逆差8000亿美元，将近半数来自中国，能不着急吗？中国贸易摩擦的起源就是这个。
所以，2017年12月美国国家安全战略报告提出“中国是修正主义强国”； 2018年2月美国国务卿蒂勒森讲，中国是“新帝国主义列强”。这帽子是以前我们拿着扣别人的，现在美国拿帽子扣我们，说中国要修改国际秩序，中国经济正在“入侵”非洲、南美，“入侵”美国。你看美国人提的，是因为我们拍个片子就对我们狠起来了？
我经常讲，合作是双方的，对抗只要单方面决定就可以了。合作需要双方意愿才行，你跟我对抗，我想合作也合作不起来。
2008年国际金融危机之后，很多国家开始反思去工业化的弊端，西方大国纷纷开启再工业化的进程。
我们可以看，2008年以前，国家、地区在统计经济发展指标的时候特别看重三产（第三产业），认为“三产”超过“二产”是一个地区经济发展健康、有潜力的表现，大家对制造业都不太在意了。一场金融危机对大家醍醐灌顶，真正能扛住金融危机的都是制造业大国，“二产”极其强大，德国、日本、中国、韩国都能扛住。
所以金融危机之后，西方大国纷纷开启再工业化的进程：美国，先进制造业国家战略；德国，工业4.0；日本，工业价值链战略。中国，制造强国战略开始了。
当然，这里面的核心是什么呢？核心是高技术。如果我们安于现状，保持劳动密集型，低端就低端，“7亿件衬衫换一架波音飞机”，那么我们永远相安无事。美国人现在发现中国人往上走了。
硅谷的数据统计，2017全球人工智能创业融资152亿，中国企业占48%，美国企业占38%，人工智能知识产权方面中国为1239件，美国为231件；1980年首次召开人工智能年会，美国占绝对优势，欧洲参与不多，中国一篇论文都没有，2018年2月的年会，中国投稿1242篇，美国934篇，被大会采用的论文中国仅比美国少3篇。
你看这个国家从哪儿冒出来的？1998年一篇论文都没有，20年后变成这样。我们的学习能力、创新能力、奋斗精神带来的变化，引起对方极大的警惕，美国战略国际问题研究中心（美国最权威的智库）提出，中国在人工智能领域正和美国并驾齐驱地竞争，不是跟跑，是并驾齐驱，欧洲、日本这方面已经不行，这太可怕了。
所以中美贸易之争，实际是科技之争，是主导权之争，是国运之争。我们认为时机不成熟，还要闷头发展，美国人说不行，现在必须把它遏制住！你看，我们对美国有美好的想法，好几次讲“中美贸易摩擦不打了”，回回达成协议，全被美方单方面撕毁。贸易摩擦难以避免。
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贸易摩擦打到今天，从网络舆论和各方的采访看，出现一种奇特的现象：中国经济学家看衰中国，美国经济学家看衰美国。你采访中国经济学家，一片唱衰，“完了”“糟了”，“大难呐” ；你采访美国经济学家，跟我们一样，“完了”“糟了”，特朗普这样折腾，美国将出大麻烦了。
为什么出现这种现象？双方对自身的缺点都了如指掌，但对对方的缺点有所不知。我们看今天中国的优势在哪里？美国的优势又在哪里？
中国的优势第一是制造优势，第二是市场优势，第三是开放优势。
美国呢？第一是科技优势，第二是货币优势，第三是军力优势。
2016年中国制造业占世界制造业比重25%，世界第一，这种优势任何国家难以取代，而且还在上升。华盛顿邮报讲，中国拥有全球最多的理工毕业人才，中国是首个年度专利申请数量突破百万的国家，占全球专利申请总量的近40%，比美国、日本、韩国加起来还多……
美国人还学工程学吗？他们选修什么呢？法律、金融、医学，因为最来钱，工资待遇最高，都搞这个去了。按照美方统计，中国本科生每年毕业600万个工程师，90%转行，他还有60万，美国有这样的人吗？奥巴马要返回制造业，特朗普要返回制造业，大声疾呼拼命号召，人在哪里？工程师在哪里？蓝领工人在哪里？曹德旺在美国搞玻璃厂，雇佣的工人都是五六十岁，四十岁极少，谁给你当工人呢？没人干，非常困难，就是美国今天面临的很大问题。
中国今天不但是第一大制造业大国，还是全球第一大贸易国，第一大市场。谁会跟第一大市场过不去呢？这就决定了不管美国政府如何决策，美国企业一定要挤进中国市场。你打俄罗斯可以，打加拿大可以，打墨西哥也可以，但你不可能和一个比你还大的市场持续进行贸易摩擦。
美国刁难中国在美国的投资，华为、中兴、三一重工、联想都受到刁难；我们安抚美国企业在华的投资，继续扩大开放力度，包括金融领域。这就决定了贸易摩擦当中我们的中长期优势。
近期我们遭受了意外的困难，感觉这坎好像过不去了。其实博弈对双方都难，没有容易的。大家注意，特朗普是46年出生，奥巴马是61年出生，美国这交班很怪异，60后交给了40后。特朗普简单地把过去美日经济对决当成今天与中国的经济对决，80年代末美日经济对决，一个广场协议把日本打趴下，今天拿出对付日本那套对付中国，可行吗？80年代末，美日经济对决是产品之间的对决，双方都有独立于对方的完整产业链。全球化深度发展的今天，美中经济对决不是产品的对决，不是汽车、计算机的对决，而是产业链的撕裂，这完全不一样。
40后至今还没想明白这个问题，他觉得还是产品，你看他划的产品（清单）非常细，涉及中国的几千种产品。你知道大量是中间产品吗？产品进入美国还要再加工，这影响极大。产业链上下游之间的密切共生关系，决定了并非谁掌握高科技谁就掌握了一切，中低端优势也并非那么容易取代。刚才讲美国回不去（中低端产业链）了，好，找一个替代国，有中国的规模和质量吗？没有。所以中国手中不是一张牌没有。当然，我们承认中低端利润不如高端，对高端的优势顶礼膜拜，我们今天正在往高端走。
为什么很多经济学家唱衰中国？大家觉得美国太厉害了，一个芯片就把中国搞住。我说，你知道这是产业链吗？中兴完了，高通怎么办？2017年高通全球营收223亿美元，中国市场占150亿美元，占2/3，而且比例还在上升，同时高通在美国本土的营收微乎其微。2017年中兴出货4600多万部，超过一半是高通芯片，中兴休克，高通深受重创。这就是今天的产业链，特朗普懂这个吗？
2015年，中国政府对高通开出9.75亿美元的罚单，高通十分配合，第一时间缴纳，马上把钱交上来，并对国产手机厂商专利费打6.5折，高通失去中国市场使高通无法接受。
这是今天形成的共生关系，我们没有新的冷战，企业在勾连，这种关系无法斩断。
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上海交大的潘英丽教授讲了很好的观点：美国最大的问题不在于跟中国的关系，而在于美国与企业的关系。
起点是20世纪70年代末，制造业外移引发的“全球化”陷阱。制造业移到国外，收益被私有的跨国集团获取，成本却由联邦政府承担，包括外交斡旋、地缘战争形成巨大的不稳定性，美国政府没钱了，税收却在国外回不来。
所以，美国今天的优势正在被化解，不是被别人化解，而是在被自己化解。克林顿高级顾问泰森说，美国高科技行业能否抵住中国的挑战，并不取决于美国能否遏制中国的进步，而取决于美国自身的创业能力。然而迄今为止，政府的政策措施主要集中在支持煤炭开采和钢铁生产等传统行业，而非创新。
大家不要忘记特朗普是个老派人物，他钟情于传统工业，希望煤炭重新开采，钢铁重新生产……另一方面，反移民政策严重损害美国科技创新，你到硅谷看看，中国移民、印度移民、以色列移民、东欧移民，大量在硅谷，特朗普反移民在反什么？反人才。
当然，特朗普宣布国内减税，这做的不错，但大家注意，美国政府本来就没钱，再一减税更没钱。特朗普胃口很大，想干的事很多，还宣布重返月球。美国阿波罗计划之后就废弃了，为什么？因为登月太花钱。与此同时，美国的军费达到创纪录的7160亿美元，是美国之后九个国家的总和。并且还要大兴基本建设。
其实核心就一句话：钱在哪里？打仗要钱，建设也要钱。
我们看看美国债务，原来一直在可控水平，现在美国债务已经超过国民经济总量。2016年特朗普胜选时，美国债务20万亿，当时的美国国民生产总值是17万亿，都不够你还债的。特朗普发誓要把债务减下来，但现在这个趋势到特朗普第一任期结束，债务要达到25万亿。
彼得希夫是美国很了不起的一个人，美国经济学者中他是唯一一个准确预测了2008年金融危机。他说，加剧美国下一场经济危机的最大问题是美国人已经身无分文，都在借钱。69%的美国人存款都在1000美元以内，合人民币不到7000元，你不开玩笑吗？美国就开玩笑。你不储蓄，美国各大银行就没钱。
很多美国经济学家讲，美国经济大问题是民间不储蓄，但是中国高储蓄，极大支持了政府。
所以短期看中美贸易摩擦，结局必然两败俱伤；长期看，不但倒逼两国经济转型升级，而且通过一段时间的较量与发展，反而有助于双方找到新的平衡点，这个平衡点就是产业链，双方紧密交叉在一起，你掰不开我，我也掰不开你，这样是最安全的。
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任正非的一句话，超越了所有经济理论。
美国有个电影叫《教父》，给我很深的印象，主角的父亲被对手杀了，他讲了一句话：对对手最大的震撼，就是平静地和对手坐在一起喝咖啡。
我们对对手的最大震撼不是开始冷战，不是“你干你的，我干我的”，我们更要跟你混在一起。有人问我：金教授，能不能到美国投资？我说：到美国投资很好，只要你进得去就干，就怕你进不去，美国的限制很严。
对中国来讲，我们要认清自己的地位，坚持扩大改革开放，积极主动与国际接轨，加大对国际产业链的深度嵌入，努力培植扩大内需，最终谁也奈何我们不得。
2006、2007年，我们的进出口贸易占国民经济总量63%，今天只占33%，比例大大下降，因为内需提振了。贸易摩擦如果发生在2007年，对我们影响非常大，今天也有影响，但不像很多人宣传的那么悬。
这里有个历史缘由，我带大家简单回顾一下。今天这个状态，国内不管是理论界、企业界，还是民间、股市，一片哀鸿遍野，在以前出现过，就是（对日）抗战之初，国内舆论一片哀鸿，认为打不过日本。我们几个一流的学者，成立“低调俱乐部”，说老蒋跟共产党一起“吹牛皮”，抗战你抗得过吗？
这伙人除了胡适、陈布雷，抗战一开，全部变成汉奸。当时胡适被老蒋派去全世界游说，宣传国民政府抗战，等游说一圈回来，发现汪精卫已经成汉奸了。老蒋救了胡适。今天好多人还在说胡适不得了，没老蒋救他，他就完了。
国民党中央宣传部长周佛海讲，中国人的要素、物的要素、组织的要素，没有一个能和日本比拼，战必败。跟我们今天多类似啊？你看我们今天学者讲的，中国人的要素、物的要素、组织要素，没有一种能和美国比，贸易摩擦中国肯定失败。有什么差别？历史在惊人的重复。
你看当年中国最聪明的大脑怎么看中国的，抗日抗得过吗？毛泽东就说干得过。为什么？毛泽东在《论持久战》里讲了一句话：“战争的伟力之最深厚的根源，存在于民众之中。”
注意，老蒋说抗战能抗多长时间？6个月。因为国民党兵工署向老蒋报告，南方、北方所有枪炮弹能够打3个月，3个月以后枪炮弹都没有了，老蒋能说抗6个月，也还算可以了。老蒋只看到武器的统计数字了，毛泽东看到民众。我们今天不是这样吗？我们应对中美贸易摩擦最深厚的根源仅仅是外汇储备吗？仅仅是美国国债吗？仅仅是贸易盈余吗？
今天的民众是什么样的民众？你看这批企业家：
华为的任正非，1987年以27000元集资创建华为，2015年全年营收利润110亿美元，2016年华为国内纳税700亿，海外纳税300亿，变成一个震惊世界的科技王国，今天美国人堵截华为。
波司登的高德康，1976年八台缝纫机起家，为了完成上海进货，骑自行车往返，驼着布料来回200多公里，下大雨，把布料衣服包得好好的，自己浇成落汤鸡一样。有一次自行车爆胎，他扛着衣服要上公交，被人嫌弃一身汗臭，满身泥泞，然后被推下了车。小裁缝的大梦想，这不是民众？
吉利的李书福，只有高中毕业，干汽车很困难，很多人说，你懂汽车吗？你知道汽车是工业社会的皇冠吗？当年收购沃尔沃，中外媒体都丑化李书福，画的样子很丑，一个蛇要把象吞了。再看看今天的吉利。
“战争的伟力之最深厚的根源，存在于民众之中。”你看中国人这种耐受性，这种创造性，这是经济学家能总结出来的吗？这是股市能计算出来的吗？
我们今天的学者在讲什么？中等收入陷阱、马尔萨斯人口陷井、金德尔伯格陷阱……学者告诉我们企业家全是陷阱，寸步难行，太危险了。你看看任正非、高德康、李书福这些人怎么回答的？都是问题，愁死你了，干才是答案，做才是最终的目的。
阿富汗战乱时，任正非去看望过员工。利比亚开战前两天，他还在利比亚，任正非说，“我若贪生怕死，何来让你去英勇奋斗？”
什么叫中国企业家精神？这是经济理论能解释的吗？这就是中美贸易博弈，我们中方的优势，中国社会、中国人这种勤劳勇敢，这种创新能力无可替代，这是我们最大的优势、最大的资本。任正非讲：“除了胜利我们已经无路可走。”这话已经超越我们现有的经济理论。
6
最后跟大家分享几句忠告：
第一句话，知识不是力量，只有能执行的知识才有力量。灰心丧气发牢骚、讲坏话也是知识，它形不成力量。最有知识的人成立了低调俱乐部，你说他有力量吗？
第二句话，人人都是普通之人，人人都可能做非凡之事。从任正非到高德康，哪个不是普通之人？普通的农民，普通的工人，他们都做出了非凡之事。
第三句话，再谦卑的骨子里也流淌着江河。
第四句话，世界上只有一种真正的英雄主义，那就是认清真相之后，依然热爱生活。
本文作者：正和岛 金一南
责任编辑：赵明
Https://news.sina.com.cn/c/2019-05-20/doc-ihvhiqay0089014.shtml
Can a US chip cure China? Jin Yinan: Does Trump know this?
Can a US chip cure China? Jin Yinan: Does Trump know this?
23,919
Original title: Major General Jin Yinan: Some people say that the United States is too powerful. A chip can cure China, but does Trump know this?
Recently, Mr. Ren Zhengfei, founder and president of China Huawei, accepted an interview with the Japanese media "Japan Economic News" at the Huawei headquarters in Shenzhen. It not only responded to the US's recent attempt to kill Huawei, but also wanted to block Huawei's business. Every one is very powerful.
Ren Zhengfei mentioned in the interview that even if Qualcomm and other US suppliers do not sell chips to Huawei, Huawei is “no problem” because “we have already prepared for this”.
What are our scholars talking about today? The middle-income trap, the Malthusian population trap, the Kindelberg trap... Scholars tell us that entrepreneurs are all traps, difficult to move, too dangerous. How do you answer Ren Zhengfei, Gao Dekang, and Li Shufu? It’s all a problem, you are dying, and being the answer is the ultimate goal.
When the war in Afghanistan, Ren Zhengfei went to see the staff. Two days before the start of Libya, he was still in Libya, Ren Zhengfei said, "If I am afraid of death, why should you let you fight heroically?"
What is Chinese entrepreneurship? Is this economic theory explained? This is the Sino-US trade game. Our Chinese advantage, Chinese society and Chinese people are hardworking and brave. This kind of innovation capability is irreplaceable. This is our greatest advantage and the greatest capital. Ren Zhengfei said: "We have no way to go except victory." This has already surpassed our existing economic theory.
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Trade friction is a very important aspect, but it doesn't stop there. Sino-US relations are the most complicated and important relationship between the two countries in the world today. The relationship between all countries in the past cannot explain today's Sino-US relations.
What kind of process has this experienced in big power relations? Here is a brief review of history:
In the 1950s and 1960s, Sino-US relations confronted each other. The Korean War and the Vietnam War were all like this. At that time, the gunpowder flavor of the relationship between the two sides was very strong;
In the 1970s and 1980s, Sino-US relations improved, Kissinger’s secret visit to China, and Nixon’s public visit to China. What is the basis? The basis is to jointly deal with the Soviet Union and fight against the social imperialism in the north of Mongolia, and we also need to slow down the pressure from the United States to the east, so Sino-US relations are hit.
Sino-US relations must have a foundation, and once the foundation collapses, problems will arise. After the disintegration of the Soviet Union in 1991, the relationship was lost, and then what? The economic and trade relations between the two sides have become a new ballast stone.
This ballast stone is very typical. Many of us today say that Sino-US relations are restoring a new Cold War. I said that it is impossible for China and the United States to engage in a new Cold War.
You see the United States and the Soviet Union during the Cold War. Both sides have completely independent political camps. One is the socialist camp, the other is the capitalist camp, one Huayue, one NATO, and completely different military organizations and economic groups. During the peak period, the US-Soviet trade accounted for only 0.8% of the total US trade. This is a world where there is almost no border. This is the standard cold war.
Is Sino-US relations today a new cold war? Is there an independent political group? Is there an independent economic organization? Nothing at all. China has adopted a new policy, integrated into the world, and mixed with him. We are now the largest trading partner of the United States. The total trade volume of the two sides is 630 billion US dollars, accounting for more than 16% of the total US trade, plus Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan, accounting for 20%.
There is a measure in the US economic community. A country accounts for 7% of the total US trade, indicating that this country has a major stake in the United States. It is not only necessary to establish close political relations and safeguard this economic interest.
China is also the largest holder of US Treasury bonds, nearly $1.2 trillion. These were all completely absent from the Soviet era. The relationship between all countries in the past cannot explain the very complicated relationship between China and the United States today. How to deal with it? Very difficult, and very difficult for American politicians.
What did Clinton propose? Dealing with the Soviet Union is very simple, aiming at it, tidy it up, and confronting it all. To deal with China, Clinton proposed to change them through “contact”, whether through the network, the media or the development of enterprises and the formation of middle class. As a result, Clinton engaged in "contact" for eight years, and China has not changed.
When Bush came to power, he said that Clinton could not do this, so he proposed "containment." Then containment will not be curbed, and China and the United States still maintain deep economic exchanges.
The turn of Obama, he created a new word - "contact containment, contain sexual contact", first contact and then contain, first contain and then contact, very complicated relationship.
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During this period, China’s development has attracted worldwide attention. In terms of economic aggregates alone, the output value of more than 300 billion yuan in 1978, 169 billion in 1989 and 827 billion in 2017, the speed of this economic growth, there is no precedent in the world.
In 1978, Comrade Deng Xiaoping’s visit to the United States was very difficult to raise foreign exchange. Foreign exchange reserves in 1978 were $500 million, and today it is $3 trillion. Look at our embarrassment and current state in 1978. When Reagan served as president of the United States in 1981, China’s economy was less than 10% of the United States and is now close to 70%. This is calculated in US dollars.
Ellison of Harvard University's Center for International Affairs said that in accordance with international purchasing power parity, China's economy was flat with the US in 2014, and China's economy was already 114% of the US economy in 2017. Ellison said that a country that did not appear in any ranking in 1980 has now jumped to the forefront of the world economy. What is going on in this country?
Today, we have said that the Sino-US trade friction is because we have provoked the Americans, and the United States is finally alert. I said, how can this be so simple? The United States has been paying attention to us for a long time and has been staring at us.
In 2007, the United States was the largest trading partner of 130 countries. China is the largest trading partner of 70 countries. In 2017, China is the largest trading partner of 130 countries, and the United States is the largest trading partner of 70 countries. Ten years of turn! When Americans look at this trend, you have to surpass me. According to the statistics of the United States, the annual trade deficit of the United States in 2017 was 800 billion U.S. dollars, and nearly half of it came from China. Can you not worry? The origin of China's trade friction is this.
Therefore, in December 2017, the US National Security Strategy Report stated that "China is a revisionist power"; in February 2018, US Secretary of State Tillerson said that China is "a new imperialist power." This hat is the one we used to buckle others. Now the United States takes the hat to deduct us and says that China wants to amend the international order. The Chinese economy is "invading" Africa, South America, and "invading" the United States. You see the Americans because we took a film and picked it up for us?
I often say that cooperation is between the two sides. The confrontation can be unilaterally decided. Cooperation requires the will of both parties. You fight against me. I don't think cooperation can be done.
After the international financial crisis in 2008, many countries began to reflect on the drawbacks of industrialization, and Western powers have begun the process of re-industrialization.
We can see that before 2008, countries and regions paid special attention to the tertiary industry (the tertiary industry) when they were in the statistical economic development indicators. They believed that the “three productions” exceeded the “second production” and it was a healthy and promising performance of regional economic development. Everyone is not too concerned about the manufacturing industry. A financial crisis is a top-notch for all of you. The real financial crisis is a big manufacturing country. The "second production" is extremely strong, and Germany, Japan, China, and South Korea can all hold it.
Therefore, after the financial crisis, Western powers have begun the process of re-industrialization: the United States, the national strategy of advanced manufacturing; Germany, Industry 4.0; Japan, industrial value chain strategy. China, the strategy of manufacturing a strong country has begun.
Of course, what is the core of this? The core is high technology. If we are comfortable with the status quo, maintain labor-intensive, low-end low-end, "700 million shirts for a Boeing aircraft", then we will always be safe. The Americans now find that the Chinese are going up.
According to statistics from Silicon Valley, the global artificial intelligence entrepreneurship financing was 15.2 billion in 2017, Chinese companies accounted for 48%, American companies accounted for 38%, artificial intelligence intellectual property rights in China were 1,239, and the United States was 231. In 1980, the first artificial intelligence annual meeting was held. The United States has an absolute advantage. There is not much participation in Europe. There is no paper in China. At the annual meeting in February 2018, China contributed 1242 articles and 934 articles in the United States. The papers used by the General Assembly were only three fewer than the United States.
Where do you see this country come from? There was no paper in 1998, and it became like this in 20 years. The changes brought about by our learning ability, innovative ability and struggle spirit have caused great vigilance. The US Center for Strategic International Studies (the most authoritative think tank in the United States) proposes that China is competing with the United States in the field of artificial intelligence, not with Running is a good move. Europe and Japan are no longer good. This is terrible.
Therefore, the Sino-US trade dispute is actually a dispute over science and technology. It is a dispute over the dominant power and a dispute over the national movement. We think that the timing is not mature, but we still have to expand our heads. The Americans can't do it. Now we must contain it! You see, we have good ideas for the United States. On several occasions, we have said that "the Sino-US trade friction has not been hit" and we have returned to reach an agreement, which has been unilaterally torn by the US. Trade friction is hard to avoid.
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Trade friction hit today, from the network public opinion and interviews from various parties, there is a peculiar phenomenon: Chinese economists look down on China, and American economists look down on the United States. You interviewed Chinese economists, and they sang, "completed", "bad", "difficult"; you interviewed American economists, like us, "completed" and "bad", Trump tossed, The United States will be in big trouble.
Why is this happening? Both sides know their shortcomings well, but they don't know each other's shortcomings. Let us see where China’s advantages are today? Where is the advantage of the United States?
China's advantage is the manufacturing advantage, the second is the market advantage, and the third is the open advantage.
What about the United States? The first is the advantage of science and technology, the second is the advantage of money, and the third is the advantage of military power.
In 2016, China's manufacturing industry accounted for 25% of the world's manufacturing industry, ranking first in the world. This advantage is difficult for any country to replace and is still rising. According to the Washington Post, China has the largest number of graduates of science and engineering in the world. China is the first country to have more than one million patent applications in the year, accounting for nearly 40% of the total number of patent applications in the world, more than the United States, Japan, and South Korea combined... ...
Do Americans still learn engineering? What do they choose? Law, finance, medicine, because the most money, the highest salary, have done this. According to US statistics, Chinese undergraduates graduate 6 million engineers each year, 90% change jobs, and he still has 600,000. Does the United States have such people? Obama wants to return to manufacturing, Trump wants to return to manufacturing, and shouts for a call, where are people? Where is the engineer? Where are the blue collar workers? Cao Dewang is engaged in a glass factory in the United States. The employed workers are all 50 or 60 years old, and there are very few 40 years old. Who will give you a worker? No one is doing it, it is very difficult, and it is a big problem facing the United States today.
China is not only the largest manufacturing country today, but also the world's largest trading nation and the largest market. Who will not go with the first big market? This determines that no matter how the US government decides, American companies must squeeze into the Chinese market. You can play Russia, you can play Canada, you can play Mexico, but you can't continue to trade friction with a market bigger than you.
The United States has made it difficult for China to invest in the United States. Huawei, ZTE, Sany Heavy Industry, and Lenovo have all suffered; we have appeased US companies’ investment in China and continue to expand their openness, including the financial sector. This determines our medium and long-term advantage in trade friction.
Recently, we have suffered unexpected difficulties, and it feels like this hurdle seems to be too late. In fact, the game is difficult for both sides and there is no easy game. Everyone notices that Trump was born in 46 years, Obama was born in 61 years, and the assignment in the United States is very weird. After 60, he gave it to 40. Trump simply regarded the past economic confrontation between the United States and Japan as the economic confrontation with China today. In the late 1980s, the US-Japan economic confrontation, a square agreement to beat Japan, and today to deal with Japan against China, is it feasible? In the late 1980s, the US-Japan economic confrontation was a confrontation between products, and both sides had a complete industrial chain independent of each other. Today, the deep development of globalization, the US-China economic confrontation is not a product confrontation, not a car, computer confrontation, but a tear of the industrial chain, which is completely different.
I still don't want to understand this question since 40. He thinks it is still a product. You see that his products (list) are very detailed, involving thousands of products in China. Do you know that a lot of intermediate products? The product has to be processed in the United States, which has a great impact. The close symbiotic relationship between the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain determines that no one who masters high technology has mastered everything, and the low-end advantage is not so easy to replace. I just said that the United States can’t go back (low-end and mid-end industrial chains). Okay, looking for a replacement country, is there China’s scale and quality? No. So there is not a card in China. Of course, we admit that the low-end profit is not as good as the high-end, and worship the high-end advantage. We are going to the high end today.
Why do many economists sing China? Everyone thinks that the United States is too powerful, and a chip will hold China in the air. I said, do you know that this is an industrial chain? After ZTE is over, what about Qualcomm? In 2017, Qualcomm's global revenues were 22.3 billion US dollars, the Chinese market accounted for 15 billion US dollars, accounting for 2/3, and the proportion is still rising, while Qualcomm's revenue in the United States is very small. In 2017, ZTE shipped more than 46 million units, more than half of which were Qualcomm chips, and ZTE shock, Qualcomm was deeply hit. This is the industry chain today, does Trump know this?
In 2015, the Chinese government issued a $975 million fine for Qualcomm, Qualcomm
