For the last 30 years, the correlation of daily price movements between new era and old era stocks during the last year has proved to be a good risk indicator for new era investors,” Paulsen wrote (6) earlier this month.
“The most recent rally in new era stocks since March 30 has been explosive, causing a breakout of optimism among investors that AI excitement is leading the stock market on another significant leg higher. However, this latest rally has been associated with an alarming drop in the trailing 12-month new/old era stock price correlation, suggesting the contemporary rally may not be sustainable.”
As Paulsen shows, the last few times this pattern has shown itself, there was a subsequent downturn of the stocks that had been serving as the primary drivers of the runaway market success — a “notable pause,” if not some “meaningful underperformance.”