How Many Seats Can the Opposition Win?

[makapaaa]

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[TD="align: center"]12-8-2015 6:44 PM[/TD]
[TD] http://sgfuck.org/mybb/images/mobile/posted_0.gif Post: #150
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[TD="class: trow2, align: center"] alpha http://sgfuck.org/mybb/images/buddy_offline.gif
Elite Junior
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Quote:http://www.tremeritus.com/2015/08/12/roy-ngerng-possible-outcomes-of-the-general-election/ Possible outcomes of the general election Roy Ngerng August 12th, 2015 How Many Seats Can the Opposition Win? As I have written, the PAP has changed the electoral boundaries mainly in the constituencies where the opposition has won more than 40% of the votes at the last election. This shows the the PAP believes that the opposition can potentially win as much as 10% more of the votes at the next election, and that the PAP can lose as much as 10% of the votes, which is why they have changed the boundaries in the hope of confusing voters. So, let’s stay focused. In addition, if you track the constituencies which did not change their boundaries drastically since the election in 2001, there have been a swing of 10% of the votes to the opposition at each subsequent election in 2006 and 2011, so we can expect that the votes will still swing by about 10% as well to the opposition at the next election, everything else being equal. The PAP has also attempted to buy votes, such as via the Pioneer Generation Package (though it has been analysed that the “increased subsidies” have been offset by the increase in healthcare bills). Many commenters have also suggested that the PAP has been giving out new citizenships in the hope that new citizens will vote for them (this effect might be real or not), so as to help them win back the vote shares. The results at the next election will give us an indication of whether the PAP’s underhanded tactics will work. Next, let’s take a look at the scenarios. At the next election, if we assume that the votes for the opposition will increase by 5% in each constituency (if PAP's vote buying works), the following outcome is what we will see. The opposition will win the seats in their current seats in Aljunied GRC, Hougang SMC and the Punggol East SMC, and also just a few more in East Coast GRC, Fengshan SMC and Potong Pasir SMC. This would mean that the Worker’s Party (WP) will win 12 seats and the Singapore People’s Party (SPP) will win 1 seat. Note that the seats won by the opposition are shaded in dark red, red and orange. Now, if we assume that the votes for the opposition will increase by 10% in each constituency as would be the normal trend, then we will see the following outcome. On top of the constituencies won above, the opposition will also win the following additional seats: Bishan-Toa Poyah GRC, Jalan Besar GRC, MacPherson SMC, Marine Parade GRC, Mountbatten SMC, Nee Soon GRC, Sengkang West SMC and Tampines GRC. This would allow WP to win another 15 seats, the SPP to win another 2 seats, the combined SPP and Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) to win 5 seats and the National Solidarity Party (NSP) to win 5 seats. At the last election, the Singapore Democratic Party (SDP) was also the party with the fastest improvement, where the votes that it garnered increased by more than 10%. This shows that SDP has a growing traction and influence among many Singaporeans, and could likely continue with its momentum of gaining support. This is also helped by the SDP having introduced numerous and credible alternative policies. If I may surmise, they have attracted Singaporeans largely due to having a clear vision and mission, as well as having clearly articulated their policy proposals for Singaporeans. As such, for the SDP, if the votes to them would swing by 13% to 15%, this would mean that the SDP would be able to win the seats in Holland-Bukit Timah GRC and Marsiling-Yew Tee GRC, as the following shows.

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[laksaboy]

If West Coast GRC remains the last bastion of strong PAP support, I can expect plenty of perks and 'leg humping' from the pappies in the near future.

 

[winnipegjets]

There is a very good chance the opposition can topple the PAP.

The question is whether they dare to go all out to hit the PAP.

Sinkees need to be led ...and the Opposition should tell sinkees how the PAP has treated them badly and keeping the PAP on would lead to more bad years. There are so many fact out there for the Opposition to draw on to make their point. You want to beat the PAP, play hard ball.

 

[butoh6050]

i want to see the reaction from loon when roy talks abt the CPF during RP's rally speech in amk.
Loon cannot rebut anything that roy says without lying through his teeth.

 

[Wunderfool]

There is a very good chance the opposition can topple the PAP.

The question is whether they dare to go all out to hit the PAP.

Sinkees need to be led ...and the Opposition should tell sinkees how the PAP has treated them badly and keeping the PAP on would lead to more bad years. There are so many fact out there for the Opposition to draw on to make their point. You want to beat the PAP, play hard ball.

Compare this year with the year 2011, the chance of WP making further wins is much slimmer. The signs are obvious.
The confluence of good factors ( SG50, policy changes, LKY's death dividend, PAP leadership renewal, hardworking MPs ) are likely to land the PAP with a bigger winning margin than in 2011.

WP fiasco with the town council 's lapses , non-co-operation with other Opps Parties, snide remarks about LTY , and arrogance and complacency will likely see them lose more votes this time round.

I won't be surprised that Aljunied GRC, if WP were to retain their seat, will be won by the thinnest of margin. I believe that will be the closest fight in this GE.

 

[GoldenDragon]

13 seats in parliament easy easy.

 

[airplug]

Unlikely to get 1/3...

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[TD="align: center"]12-8-2015 6:44 PM[/TD]
[TD] http://sgfuck.org/mybb/images/mobile/posted_0.gif Post: #150
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[TD="class: trow2, align: center"] alpha http://sgfuck.org/mybb/images/buddy_offline.gif
Elite Junior
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Posts: 2,081
Reputation: 9 [/TD]
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Quote:http://www.tremeritus.com/2015/08/12/roy-ngerng-possible-outcomes-of-the-general-election/ Possible outcomes of the general election Roy Ngerng August 12th, 2015 How Many Seats Can the Opposition Win? As I have written, the PAP has changed the electoral boundaries mainly in the constituencies where the opposition has won more than 40% of the votes at the last election. This shows the the PAP believes that the opposition can potentially win as much as 10% more of the votes at the next election, and that the PAP can lose as much as 10% of the votes, which is why they have changed the boundaries in the hope of confusing voters. So, let’s stay focused. In addition, if you track the constituencies which did not change their boundaries drastically since the election in 2001, there have been a swing of 10% of the votes to the opposition at each subsequent election in 2006 and 2011, so we can expect that the votes will still swing by about 10% as well to the opposition at the next election, everything else being equal. The PAP has also attempted to buy votes, such as via the Pioneer Generation Package (though it has been analysed that the “increased subsidies” have been offset by the increase in healthcare bills). Many commenters have also suggested that the PAP has been giving out new citizenships in the hope that new citizens will vote for them (this effect might be real or not), so as to help them win back the vote shares. The results at the next election will give us an indication of whether the PAP’s underhanded tactics will work. Next, let’s take a look at the scenarios. At the next election, if we assume that the votes for the opposition will increase by 5% in each constituency (if PAP's vote buying works), the following outcome is what we will see. The opposition will win the seats in their current seats in Aljunied GRC, Hougang SMC and the Punggol East SMC, and also just a few more in East Coast GRC, Fengshan SMC and Potong Pasir SMC. This would mean that the Worker’s Party (WP) will win 12 seats and the Singapore People’s Party (SPP) will win 1 seat. Note that the seats won by the opposition are shaded in dark red, red and orange. Now, if we assume that the votes for the opposition will increase by 10% in each constituency as would be the normal trend, then we will see the following outcome. On top of the constituencies won above, the opposition will also win the following additional seats: Bishan-Toa Poyah GRC, Jalan Besar GRC, MacPherson SMC, Marine Parade GRC, Mountbatten SMC, Nee Soon GRC, Sengkang West SMC and Tampines GRC. This would allow WP to win another 15 seats, the SPP to win another 2 seats, the combined SPP and Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) to win 5 seats and the National Solidarity Party (NSP) to win 5 seats. At the last election, the Singapore Democratic Party (SDP) was also the party with the fastest improvement, where the votes that it garnered increased by more than 10%. This shows that SDP has a growing traction and influence among many Singaporeans, and could likely continue with its momentum of gaining support. This is also helped by the SDP having introduced numerous and credible alternative policies. If I may surmise, they have attracted Singaporeans largely due to having a clear vision and mission, as well as having clearly articulated their policy proposals for Singaporeans. As such, for the SDP, if the votes to them would swing by 13% to 15%, this would mean that the SDP would be able to win the seats in Holland-Bukit Timah GRC and Marsiling-Yew Tee GRC, as the following shows.

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