Alphaliner, a very reputable shipping industry magazine, clearly stated that NOL under Temasek management is hopeless and it claimed that NOL management is underperformed.
NOL up for sale, but is it worth buying?
NOL Group, the parent company of APL, has issued a press statement
suggesting that it was exploring a potential sale of the ocean
carrier. The statement was made in response to press reports which
claimed that Temasek Holdings, the Government of Singapore investment
holding company which owns 67% of NOL, was prepared to sell
its stake in the Singapore-based carrier (See also Alphaliner 2015
Issue 20 - APL a potential takeover target?).
NOL had accumulated total net losses reaching $1.5 Bn since 2009,
with no signs that its current management is able to turn around the
company’s performance. APL’s container shipping and terminals
businesses are the NOL Group’s only remaining assets, following the
sale of APL Logistics (APLL) to Japanese forwarding group Kintetsu
World Express for $1.2 Bn in May. NOL is expected to report another
negative quarter when the group publishes its Q2 financial results on
30 July, excluding extraordinary gains from the sale of APLL.
Although various carriers have been rumoured as potential buyers for
APL, none has publicly confirmed an interest. So far, there are no
clear frontrunners for the company: OOCL reportedly showed no interest
and Hapag-Lloyd does not have the financial resources to mount
a serious bid for APL. The German carrier is currently pushing ahead
with a potentially challenging IPO bid of its own (see page 1).
Temasek’s asking price will likely be a major stumbling block to any
potential deal. Despite the fact that NOL’s stock price is currently
trading at a substantial discount to its book value, Temasek will likely
seek a premium price for its majority stake in the company. NOL’s
market capitalisation stood at $1,666 M as at 17 July, against total
book equity value of about $2,609 M after adjusting for gains from
the APLL disposal. NOL also has net debt of $3,945 M as at April.
though part of this will be repaid from the proceeds of the APLL sale.
Apart from a high asking price, potential buyers will also need to turn
around a chronically unprofitable company with few attractive assets.
Most of APL’s ships were acquired at prices well above the current
market level and APL’s attractive stack-train contracts in the USA
have expired in 2011. Furthermore, the company’s terminal portfolio
in the United States is shrinking with the termination of leases in
Oakland (2013) and Seattle (2014).
APL’s market share is also falling, with its global capacity share
shrinking from 4.2% in 2010 to only 2.8% currently, based on Alphaliner
records. In the transpacific trade, which remains APL’s main
market, its share of the headhaul eastbound market has also decreased
from 8.6% in 2010 to only 5.5%. These factors may deter
APL’s expansion-minded suitors.