- Joined
- Jul 24, 2008
- Messages
- 33,627
- Points
- 0
<TABLE id=msgUN border=0 cellSpacing=3 cellPadding=0 width="100%"><TBODY><TR><TD id=msgUNsubj vAlign=top>
Coffeeshop Chit Chat - GRC - A Faustian Bargain?</TD><TD id=msgunetc noWrap align=right></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE class=msgtable cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="96%"><TBODY><TR><TD class=msg vAlign=top><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%"><TBODY><TR class=msghead><TD class=msgbfr1 width="1%"></TD><TD><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0><TBODY><TR class=msghead vAlign=top><TD class=msgF width="1%" noWrap align=right>From: </TD><TD class=msgFname width="68%" noWrap>tan284 <NOBR></NOBR></TD><TD class=msgDate width="30%" noWrap align=right>7:08 am </TD></TR><TR class=msghead><TD class=msgT height=20 width="1%" noWrap align=right>To: </TD><TD class=msgTname width="68%" noWrap>ALL <NOBR></NOBR></TD><TD class=msgNum noWrap align=right>(1 of 7) </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR><TR><TD class=msgleft rowSpan=4 width="1%"></TD><TD class=wintiny noWrap align=right>51823.1 </TD></TR><TR><TD height=8></TD></TR><TR><TD id=msgtxt_1 class=msgtxt>Do you know why LHL is panicking ? If you do your maths right another 6 pct loss will easily translate into loss of additional 31 seats, giving opposition a total of at least 37 seats.
The math is simple. The GRC system has a tipping point. The moment the votes fall below a certain percentage, the seats will swing dramatically . Between 45 pct and 55pct, the number of seats for and against Pap can swing wildly. At 55pct of the votes, the GRC system can even give rise to less than 50 pct seats! We will probably have to live with a coalition government!
That is a Faustian bargain that Pap has over looked. GRC favors the party that is above 60 pct and that is why the GRC can give an anomaly whereby 60 pct votes can give an outcome of 93 pct seats. This is a statistically freak result. That is why Pap is very very very very very lucky this round.
The pendulum swing between votes and seats is not linear.
Sometimes I wonder, how f@@k up the Pap is. When you tinker with a fair system, there will always be unfortunate side effects. Another really f##ck up idea is to tie ministers salary to the top tier professions. Any dumb ass knows that the top tier will always be a runaway locomotive and an outlier. Any discount tied to a runaway locomotive will still be a runaway number. The speed is the same with the number a few steps behind.
The government have traded too many Faustian bargains in tinkering with the system. It is about time they have to tell themselves that they cannot outsmart the system. simple rules are simply best left as they are.
Edited 5/29/2011 10:11 am by tan284
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
The math is simple. The GRC system has a tipping point. The moment the votes fall below a certain percentage, the seats will swing dramatically . Between 45 pct and 55pct, the number of seats for and against Pap can swing wildly. At 55pct of the votes, the GRC system can even give rise to less than 50 pct seats! We will probably have to live with a coalition government!
That is a Faustian bargain that Pap has over looked. GRC favors the party that is above 60 pct and that is why the GRC can give an anomaly whereby 60 pct votes can give an outcome of 93 pct seats. This is a statistically freak result. That is why Pap is very very very very very lucky this round.
The pendulum swing between votes and seats is not linear.
Sometimes I wonder, how f@@k up the Pap is. When you tinker with a fair system, there will always be unfortunate side effects. Another really f##ck up idea is to tie ministers salary to the top tier professions. Any dumb ass knows that the top tier will always be a runaway locomotive and an outlier. Any discount tied to a runaway locomotive will still be a runaway number. The speed is the same with the number a few steps behind.
The government have traded too many Faustian bargains in tinkering with the system. It is about time they have to tell themselves that they cannot outsmart the system. simple rules are simply best left as they are.
Edited 5/29/2011 10:11 am by tan284
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
