Fire Alarm for PAP....

[ilovesingapore]

Political observers say the Workers Party’s win in Punggol East has dealt a huge blow to the PAP and indicates rapidly growing resentment on the ground.

Describing PAP’s loss as "devastating" for the party, associate professor Bridget Welsh said that it showed a "massive downturn in support".

“It is not just about demographics but a national erosion of support sustained over the last four elections. The trends indicate that the PAP is in deep trouble – it’s efforts to win over the electorate are not working,” said Welsh, who is from Singapore Management University’s Political Science faculty.

“This is more than a wake-up call, it’s a fire alarm.”

In the end, Workers' Party candidate Lee Li Lian finished with 16,038 votes against PAP's Dr Koh Poh Koon’s 12,856 to become the first female opposition member to win a single member constituency since 1965.

Former Nominated Member of Parliament Siew Kum Hong was also surprised at the nearly 11 per cent winning margin, saying that it sent out a clear message that the ground was shifting – and not in favour of the PAP.

“The size of the margin emphasises how unhappy voters continue to be. It’s clear that voters continue to be angry about issues like housing prices, public transport, COE prices, and the AIM issue,” he said.

He admitted that he had thought it would be too close to call but "the size of the swing was a surprise”, considering that WP's Lee Li Lian managed only 41 per cent of votes when she contested the same ward at the 2011 General Elections.

Eugene Tan, assistant law professor at Singapore Management University, said the "stunning" margin of victory would have surprised the WP itself.

"A 13% increase in votes for the WP in a mere 20 months does suggest that all is not well for the PAP," said the current NMP.

'Demographics helped swing votes'

The demographics of Punggol East voters, mostly young families with children, drew crucial votes to the Worker’s Party, said the analysts.

“The fact that the electorate in this constituency is young only highlights the serious gaps the party faces in connecting with the electorate in future. The policy tinkering and elitist materialist approach is not working,” said Welsh.

Tan said many Punggol East residents are also part of the post-independence generation and therefore "less enamoured of the PAP".

"The message of a strong opposition as a safety net appealed strongly. And then there is the by-election effect in which voters were less constrained in their choices because the outcome would not result in any change of government," he added.

On the other hand, Singapore Democratic Alliance Desmond Lim's and and Reform Party K Jeyaretnam's poor vote shares, at 168 and 353 votes respectively, was "not a surprising result" for Siew.

“I think the fact that SDA and RP also contested didn’t make a difference,” he said.

What now?

All three analysts also said PAP will have to have a good, hard think about the policies they have lined up since their poor showing at the General Election in 2011.

“They still have up to three years until the next GE, so there is definitely enough time for them to make a difference. The question is whether they have learnt the right lessons from GE2011 and this by-election,” said Siew, who added that key issues like public housing and transport would have to be tackled and solid policies introduced.

Tan said the PAP had much to do to stem the "political bleeding" and that the ruling party had to find a way to "excite" the voters vis-a-vis their vision and policies for the country.

"How to stop the PAP's political vulnerability from being seen as normal is a key matter that it needs to deal with. Once electoral defeats of the PAP become normalised and are seen as no big deal, then the PAP's political longevity will be severely challenged," cautioned Tan.

WP, on the other hand, will need to step up to make sure that they give their voters what they promises – a louder and alternative voice in Parliament. With Lee joining their ranks, WP will now have a total of nine representatives -- six from Aljunied and Hougang, one from Punggol East and two NCMPs.

It also "shortened the runway" for the WP to grow to contest in every seat in future elections, said Tan.

“They will have to be more active on issues, and this boost will likely give WP more confidence to set the agenda and engage issues,” said Wels

 

[ilovesingapore]

PAP has to really renovate, rethink and reinvigorate and reinvent itself ....have a good post election conference and study the outcome carefully and stop the " political bleeding" - if this is not stopped in time, it will be a " massive haemorrhage ".

I wish WP well. I wish PAP well. My only concern is the welfare of Singaporeans.

 

[ilovesingapore]

BE2013 – looking back to look forward
by theonlinecitizen on Sunday, January 27, 2013 at 1:08am ·
By Howard Lee –

The results for the Punggol East By-Election might or might not have been a surprise for the nation. But if you ask me, the results are significant enough to suggest that we need to ask two very important questions.

The first question is, I think, more important: As a microcosmic representation of the Singapore electorate, what can BE2013 tell us about the current sentiment that the Singapore electorate has towards politics? And the second, mainly a consequent of voter sentiment: What does this signal for Singapore’s political parties as we head towards GE2016?

Personal, local, national – what matters to voters?

Let’s get the most obvious criticism out of the way first – BE2013 will most likely be remembered as the single most humiliating political battle for the ruling People’s Action Party since its formation.

It had everything going for it. Despite the fact that the BE was triggered by a sex scandal of one within its ranks, the PAP hardly got any flak from the media to make it a significant problem, and neither did any of the opposition parties use it against the PAP. The government called for a snap poll, knowing that it would be a multi-cornered fight, with a nasty economy in the headwinds – these are three factors that traditionally gave PAP the advantage. Its candidate had a head start working the ground, and the positive image of Dr Koh Poh Koon would surely have won many a heart.

And when it comes to resolving municipal issues, no one in their right minds would have doubted that the PAP is the only party with the efficiency and resources-at-beck-and-call to make a non-issue out of something as big as patching up a shopping mall in a few months.

The only deduction: National issues meant a lot more to voters than the PAP has hoped it would, or dared to admit. Did the PAP apply itself to this challenge? A slew of goodies were announced during the hustings, ranging from parenthood schemes to public transport upgrades. Even the Prime Minister threw his weight behind Koh, not only by suggesting that Koh has ministerial capability, but also making a personal appeal that the PAP has citizens’ interest at heart. Nevertheless, votes still slipped from its grasp, by a crushing 10.8percentage-points.

The hard slap to the driver, it seems, was delivered not by the WP, but by the residents of Punggol East. The PAP has no personality or municipal reasons to lose the ward. The signal is clear – BE2013 was indeed a national referendum on the PAP’s performance since GE2011, and how dismal a performance it has been. The conclusion can only be that even fewer today believed that the PAP has made meaningful changes in policy directions that really benefitted citizens. The people wanted more checks and balances in Parliament, rather than for their MPs to just focus on municipal issues.

More ready for the blue wave?

However, loss of confidence in the PAP only accounts for what why voters did not vote the PAP. With two other opposition parties to vote for, why did they put so much faith in WP?

The easy way would be to see WP’s win as an increase in voter confidence for the underdog. In GE2011, nobody would have placed a sure bet on WP taking a Group Representative Constituency, but with that safely under the belt, perhaps those in Punggol East who were previously hesitant to vote WP in 2011 are now having a second thought.

But to the extent that the combined votes of the Singapore Democratic Alliance and the Reform Party did not even total up to half of SDA’s count in GE2011?

Perhaps the answer lies closer with party ideology and performance. To some extent, it can be argued that the WP’s ideology presented a safe middle ground that promises not to undo the stability that is synonymous with decades of PAP rule. Perhaps voters have bought into the idea of a First World Parliament where the opposition is less strident than it is politely critical.

Indeed, since GE2011, the WP have opted not to engage the PAP directly in policy change, and despite what the WP tells us, it has nothing to do with the lack of opposition MPs in Parliament.

At the heart of it, voters know that the WP need not, maybe even should not, propose policy changes to PAP. This is due to politicking, where parties attempt to ‘score points’ by tearing down each other’s ideas rather than co-operate to build something that would benefit the people. And much as the PAP would like us to think otherwise, this “destructive politics” resides with the PAP, not the WP.

So far, the PAP has not been shy in attacking suggestions made by opposition MPs. Having the experiences of years in Parliament, WP would have made this delicate decision: Push too hard for change, and no matter how good an idea, the PAP will never implement it for fear of being seen as acknowledging the need for the opposition; but probe with questions, and the PAP has the leeway to reply robustly, and then make changes without seeming to give in too much.

In the end, more, not less, gets done for citizens. And I’m willing to bet that, no matter what the detractors of WP say about their seemingly soft-touch approach in Parliament, voters understand that this is the best way forward for now. They would also be able to see that the WP is currently the only opposition party with hands cautious enough to pull it off. The question is really how long this approach would remain palatable to voters, as we face every increasing pressure from policies that are in urgent need of attention.

....................

 

[ilovesingapore]

Homework for GE2016

For the PAP, the shameful loss in Punggol East is only an amplified reflection of the bruising shake-up it received in GE2011, where the opposition parties combined received more than a third of total votes. If the PAP ever hopes to claw its way back into any semblance of its former glory days, where its mandate with the people is secured by a substantive total vote count as much as the number of seats in Parliament, then it needs to go back to the governance drawing board, and soon. The first step, however, is to stop denying that all is now fine and dandy, and to stop dreaming that any election can ever be separate from national issues.

For the WP, slow and steady might win the race, but only if no one suddenly shortens the racing track. Singapore’s governance situation is dire, which can only be changed with appropriate policy overhauls, not minor tweaks, which is currently all that WP can claim to be goading the PAP towards. When push comes to shove, the electorate might decide that more affirmative action is needed. If the WP does not prove soon that it can take a more affirmative stance against the PAP, we might just be desperate enough to vote in other parties that can.

For all the opposition parties, some internal review might be in order to elevate their election strategy to a higher plane. The last thing I am concerned about here is multi-cornered fights. Clearly, the fear of opposition vote dilution has been proven unfounded with BE2013. There is also every reason to believe that horse-trading will still be the norm in the next general elections. In the worst case, an election deposit is a party’s, not the people’s, to lose.

Rather, effort needs to be made to ascertain if residents in a particular ward really want them to contest, way before the actual contest is called. The benefit is to voters, who will get a better understanding of where each party stand, rather than get rushed into nine days of posturing, where our choice is made by what one party is accused of doing badly, rather than what the accusing party can do well. In the end, it will also be a mark of respect to voters, clearly indicating that they are not in it for the contest, but for the interest of voters.

.......................

 

[Confuseous]

If the comments of the leadership are taken at face value (by-election effect) then it is a simple case of Nero fiddling while Rome burned. Three years are NOT a long time - not when the wake-up calls have been ringing for the past six or seven years. The "trust me, I know best" philosophy has been destroyed by the lack of delivery across the board, both at ministerial and civil service levels.

The AIM was one big worm which was not addressed at all by the PAP and therefore, they had indicted themselves. That a review is being conducted is irrelevant, especially not, when the a senior servant is 'investigating' something which his boss had created and that the minister of the ministry being investigated is also the chairman of the PAP.

The worm is turning into a hydra, the multi-headed water monster which keeps reproducing new heads and simply refuses to die. PAP needs to open their books completely to WP, since PE was an integral part of the adjoining GRC helmed by Rear Admirer.

 

[lifeafter41]

Political observers say the Workers Party’s win in Punggol East has dealt a huge blow to the PAP and indicates rapidly growing resentment on the ground.

Describing PAP’s loss as "devastating" for the party, associate professor Bridget Welsh said that it showed a "massive downturn in support".

“It is not just about demographics but a national erosion of support sustained over the last four elections. The trends indicate that the PAP is in deep trouble – it’s efforts to win over the electorate are not working,” said Welsh, who is from Singapore Management University’s Political Science faculty.

“This is more than a wake-up call, it’s a fire alarm.”

In the end, Workers' Party candidate Lee Li Lian finished with 16,038 votes against PAP's Dr Koh Poh Koon’s 12,856 to become the first female opposition member to win a single member constituency since 1965.

Former Nominated Member of Parliament Siew Kum Hong was also surprised at the nearly 11 per cent winning margin, saying that it sent out a clear message that the ground was shifting – and not in favour of the PAP.

“The size of the margin emphasises how unhappy voters continue to be. It’s clear that voters continue to be angry about issues like housing prices, public transport, COE prices, and the AIM issue,” he said.

He admitted that he had thought it would be too close to call but "the size of the swing was a surprise”, considering that WP's Lee Li Lian managed only 41 per cent of votes when she contested the same ward at the 2011 General Elections.

Eugene Tan, assistant law professor at Singapore Management University, said the "stunning" margin of victory would have surprised the WP itself.

"A 13% increase in votes for the WP in a mere 20 months does suggest that all is not well for the PAP," said the current NMP.

'Demographics helped swing votes'

The demographics of Punggol East voters, mostly young families with children, drew crucial votes to the Worker’s Party, said the analysts.

“The fact that the electorate in this constituency is young only highlights the serious gaps the party faces in connecting with the electorate in future. The policy tinkering and elitist materialist approach is not working,” said Welsh.

Tan said many Punggol East residents are also part of the post-independence generation and therefore "less enamoured of the PAP".

"The message of a strong opposition as a safety net appealed strongly. And then there is the by-election effect in which voters were less constrained in their choices because the outcome would not result in any change of government," he added.

On the other hand, Singapore Democratic Alliance Desmond Lim's and and Reform Party K Jeyaretnam's poor vote shares, at 168 and 353 votes respectively, was "not a surprising result" for Siew.

“I think the fact that SDA and RP also contested didn’t make a difference,” he said.

What now?

All three analysts also said PAP will have to have a good, hard think about the policies they have lined up since their poor showing at the General Election in 2011.

“They still have up to three years until the next GE, so there is definitely enough time for them to make a difference. The question is whether they have learnt the right lessons from GE2011 and this by-election,” said Siew, who added that key issues like public housing and transport would have to be tackled and solid policies introduced.

Tan said the PAP had much to do to stem the "political bleeding" and that the ruling party had to find a way to "excite" the voters vis-a-vis their vision and policies for the country.

"How to stop the PAP's political vulnerability from being seen as normal is a key matter that it needs to deal with. Once electoral defeats of the PAP become normalised and are seen as no big deal, then the PAP's political longevity will be severely challenged," cautioned Tan.

WP, on the other hand, will need to step up to make sure that they give their voters what they promises – a louder and alternative voice in Parliament. With Lee joining their ranks, WP will now have a total of nine representatives -- six from Aljunied and Hougang, one from Punggol East and two NCMPs.

It also "shortened the runway" for the WP to grow to contest in every seat in future elections, said Tan.

“They will have to be more active on issues, and this boost will likely give WP more confidence to set the agenda and engage issues,” said Wels

My thoughts are FTs are the biggest issue. Many PMETs are jobless because because of the floodgates opening. Let's hope they are listening.

 

[ilovesingapore]

If PAP continues to believe that this By Election is not an indictment of its policies and that the loss is not representative of the feeling of the majority of Singaporeans, the fire alarm will be a volcano comes 2016. There are many things to be sorted out , to be cleared and to be settled. They cannot be swept under the carpet.

Do not believe what WP LTK is saying. The WP is not ready to form the government. The WP is only there to check the government. The WP MPs are there to ask questions. Never be deceived by your opponent. To win a battle, you must be prepared for all eventuality.Do not be lured into a state of complacency and suddenly you face your Waterloo.

The result of this PE BE is a fire alarm for the PAP. If it wants to continue to stay in power, it is better for the party to do a total over-haul and it should not continue to rest its laurel and be complacent. The fire alarm has been sounded for some time and if it goes unheeded, the whole house, the whole country will be on fire. That will be a catastrophe for all Singaporeans.

 

[ilovesingapore]

My thoughts are FTs are the biggest issue. Many PMETs are jobless because because of the floodgates opening. Let's hope they are listening.

I have met many foreigners here and I asked them what are they doing here. Many replied, " I've paid my agent and they have promised me a job here. I don't know what they are going to give me.But I've paid my fees..."

I think the government have to clear the mess about redundant foreigners crowding this small little dot. You can even see foreign professional beggars here. You see Singaporeans being squeezed out not only in the job market, but also in the wet markets, the supermarkets, the buses, the trains, the shopping malls, on the roads, in food-courts and in hawker centres. This whole place is getting just too congested. One of the highest densely populated cities in the world.

Singaporeans need some breathing space. We need some privacy. We want to reclaim our identity and our national identitiy. We need to cut down on our stress and the rat race to compete with others for our job and for our space.

 

[Rifleman]

the fire alarm will be a volcano comes 2016. There are many things to be sorted out , to be cleared and to be settled.

Do not be lured into a state of complacency and suddenly you face your Waterloo.

I think George Yeo's ousted by WP is a bad indication of Sinkies going 'to overthrow' PAP. I don't think that is the scenario. Lee's clones are going to stay and PAP will be the majority if we are going to oust NSP, RP and SDP. Beware of WP too.

 

[ilovesingapore]

WP LTK told the press that the WP is not ready to form the next government. This can be interpreted in many ways.

1.WP is there to check the government only - not to form the next government. WP is just a watch-dog. Can a minority opposition strong enough to check a powerful majority ruling party? This proposal is not acceptable and it should be read with much suspicion.

2.If WP is not ready, then the door is opened to all the opposition parties which are ready and which have blue prints to form the next government. SDP seems to have everything " ready" to form the next government. Do we want that?

3.If WP is not ready and if WP has no " agenda" and no " blue-print" to form the next government, what is its role then? WP is telling the people that it is endorsing the PAP government, but it needs checks and balances.And this is the WP duty. Has this check and balance worked in the past?

Or is WP acting benign only to grow malignant when the time comes ?

 

[ilovesingapore]

"...We are just checking the government and making sure that they work harder.And don't think we will form the next government.We are contented and happy just to check on the government by asking questions in parliament.So don't read too much into our victory in PE.We will not form the government for many more years...."

 

[lifeafter41]

"...We are just checking the government and making sure that they work harder.And don't think we will form the next government.We are contented and happy just to check on the government by asking questions in parliament.So don't read too much into our victory in PE.We will not form the government for many more years...."

When you conceal your will from others, that is thick. When you impose your will on others, that is black. — Lee Zhong Wu, P.7

 

[Satyr]

My thoughts are FTs are the biggest issue. Many PMETs are jobless because because of the floodgates opening. Let's hope they are listening.

I've tried out a few of these PMETs and by and large it hasnt been a success. Those who have held high posts before expect to be delegator in chief and never get their hands dirty. Can't forget their glory days. I am happy the WP won but nobody can help people like these. The reason they do not have a job is not cost. They are just useless. I'd only hire for specialized skills.

 

[Bigfuck]

I've tried out a few of these PMETs and by and large it hasnt been a success. Those who have held high posts before expect to be delegator in chief and never get their hands dirty. Can't forget their glory days. I am happy the WP won but nobody can help people like these. The reason they do not have a job is not cost. They are just useless. I'd only hore for specialized skills.

You have to realize most jobs created by US and EU are Ponzi Scheme jobs that should not be worth more than 1/3 of what they are paid now and not worth 1/10 the bonus. If the pays are adjusted to what they really are, you will find that the real final product does not come with all the fancy Ponzi graphic advertisements musics and sexy models and still works at the fraction of the cost. Local is not the problem. Understanding that the product is a Ponzi in the first place is key. This is the only to slot the inflated US currency printed into these Ponzi imagined jobs. Remember, Lehman Brothers staff used to take the train and take lunch boxes in the mid 1990s - this was before the the Ponzi scam started.

 

[singveld]

If PAP continues to believe that this By Election is not an indictment of its policies and that the loss is not representative of the feeling of the majority of Singaporeans, the fire alarm will be a volcano comes 2016. There are many things to be sorted out , to be cleared and to be settled. They cannot be swept under the carpet.

I am quite sure people vote differently in bi election than in general election.

 

[tanwahtiu]

PAPigs already lost ground in 1984. Their election rally grounds are littered with their own Stat board workers. LKY mucked the election to GRC to stay on power for another odd 20 years. He is still alive to see his PAPig downfall. Old fart built his Singapore dream on sinking sand.

Aljunied and Punggol is the first ground sinking sand and more sinking sand ground to come.

 

[Fook Seng]

I am quite sure people vote differently in bi election than in general election.

I believe this is also the common view within the PAP. LTK says, "Very good".

 

[halsey02]

My thoughts are FTs are the biggest issue. Many PMETs are jobless because because of the floodgates opening. Let's hope they are listening.

The question often asked, "whom did they vote for", the gates were opened after the recession in 1985, & then turned into a deluge; without a 'safety net" for the PMET's, I was 'drowned' in the 'deluge' & never will forget the MIW for this, after putting my faith , heart & soul in them & serving & placing sacrifices for the nation. Who you think I vote for?, what do you think?

They sting people's basic needs, like the opportunity to earn a decent living an ability to put square meals on the table, an affordable head over our heads, a conducive environment to raise children, we expect to see most or all our savings, when we retire, and have faith in that government whom we have placed the custody of our money with.

They must not take the people for granted anymore, the old ways of forcing policies, declaring all the time they are clean not enough & always championing meritocracy is not enough. There must be transparency in what they do & accountability in what they have done. There must be changes, a change for the better of the common man, not just only for themselves, but for all.

The ground is shifting, people of different age groups & era are fed up & they will & have already channeled this frustrations into "whom do you think, they vote for"????

 

[winners]

The truth is the PAPies have fallen too deep into their sins. If they were to even revamp some of their policies (eg: about immigration and FTs), there will be severe repercussions, especially from the business federations, which is already beginning to happen.

They are now balancing on a thin line. To go ahead and revamp, they will face severe criticisms from the commercial sides and even a possible disadvantage to Sinkies if not handled well and companies relocate. If they don't revamp, they will continue to get deplored by the Sinkies and possibly lose more votes in 2016.

How the eventual outcome will be can be a sword that cuts both ways. It is definitely not easy to extract the best way out.

 

[dredd]

WP LTK told the press that the WP is not ready to form the next government. This can be interpreted in many ways.

1.WP is there to check the government only - not to form the next government. WP is just a watch-dog. Can a minority opposition strong enough to check a powerful majority ruling party? This proposal is not acceptable and it should be read with much suspicion.

2.If WP is not ready, then the door is opened to all the opposition parties which are ready and which have blue prints to form the next government. SDP seems to have everything " ready" to form the next government. Do we want that?

3.If WP is not ready and if WP has no " agenda" and no " blue-print" to form the next government, what is its role then? WP is telling the people that it is endorsing the PAP government, but it needs checks and balances.And this is the WP duty. Has this check and balance worked in the past?

Or is WP acting benign only to grow malignant when the time comes ?

Never underestimate the political brilliance of LTK. He is an extremely shrewd politician - the kind that has cards up his sleeve. There is reason for everything he says and does.