Finding Strategy When there is none.

[scroobal]

There is a saying which says that if you look hard enough, you will find it even if it does not exist. Here is one.

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The Importance of Punggol-East To SDP
Posted on 11/01/2013 by politicalwritings
Despite a pretext of opposition ‘collaboration‘, there is a real and valid reason why SDP must contest Punggol East, even though it will likely lose.

Because SDP needs to stop WP before it becomes impossible.

If SDP lets WP contest Punggol East unmolested, it will acknowledge that WP is the #1 Opposition party in Singapore.

There can only be two outcomes then: if WP wins in a straight contest, SDP is doomed. WP will have 7 seats in Parliament and still keep its two NCMP seats, while SDP not only gets nothing, but becomes further submerged in voters’ consciousness.

Even if WP doesn’t win, SDP gains nothing from giving way to WP.

On the other hand, by contesting SDP makes almost certain that WP will not win the election. In strategy we call this a blocking move. You sacrifice one of your own just to make sure that your opponent cannot make further gains. It is basically a strategy not only to deny WP another seat in Parliament, but to deny WP another chance to look good in front of voters at large.

If SDP polls higher than WP, they will brag that Singaporeans want their brand of ‘opposition’ rather than WP’s meek and mild opposition. Even if SDP polls lower than WP, they’ll still say it’s a credible showing, while secretly celebrating that WP does not get yet another seat in Parliament. They would also have raised their profile, especially now that Dr Chee is no longer a bankrupt and can speak at election rallies. It will be his golden chance to address Singaporeans at large after almost 15 years.

In the unlikely event that SDP lose their election deposit, they’ll claim that PM Lee denied them the opportunity to build a fan base in Punggol East before he pressed his ‘panic’ button.

So you see how important Punggol East is to SDP.

Test of party branding, my foot! This is politics, this is strategy. WP’s growth comes at the expense of SDP and all other parties in Singapore, even the PAP. SDP is doing the right thing, for its own interest.

Other pretenders like Desmond Lim and Botak Pwee are out to either redeem themselves or prove a point. Only SDP is playing strategy.

The result appears inevitable: PAP will win. The only question is, who will be Ms Punggol-East runner up in this beauty contest. Sadly, the runner up does not get to become Ms Punggol-East in the event the winner is unable to fulfill her obligations. But that’s politics for you.

PS> NSP must be regretting its decision now to rule itself out of the contest at an early stage. In politics you never ever rule out anything, unless you are forced.

 

[mojito]

In some forums, it is considered rude to repeat points previously raised by oneself in other threads, so I will quote my response to this article instead.

Good analysis my foot. The simple reason is that Chee has recently been unshackled and is a little over-eager to mobilize his troops.

 

[methink]

My observations too. One more seat for the great pretender to the PAP is not going to change things.

Since WP do not want to cooperate, a 3CF is inevitable. Sinkies will judge them by this PE results. A kind of home coming for WP?

 

[leetahbah]

Perhaps the opposition parties should cooperate by disbanding their parties and formed a new party with members from all opposition parties.

 

[kukubird58]

hahaha...my idol starting a new thread with another cheem sounding title..
in a nut shell, he was so wrong about the rivalries between sdp and wp that he now has to find pieces to cover up his kuku assessments and justify why sdp should take part..
yes, i say he should stick to copy and paste rather making himself look stupid with all the out of depth analysis.

 

[JanaineTeo]

Very chim analysis of a simple problem

 

[Vigilante]

Perhaps the opposition parties should cooperate by disbanding their parties and formed a new party with members from all opposition parties.

Who wants to be associated with chee can do so!

 

[scroobal]

Exactly. Too clever by half.

Very chim analysis of a simple problem

 

[OverTheCounter]

This kind of analysis is completely self centered and naive.

It treats voters as idiots and does not care about them. Only care about party politics.

 

[OverTheCounter]

Sdp had always been seeking to prosper thy neighbour rather than beggar thy neighbor.

This article is a serious misrepresented of sdp position.

But that being said, sdp has been known to change its stance for political expediency so I guess this article has its point too.

 

[3_M]

Just few days ago, I would have thought it a calculative move by SDP since they can either gain the right to contest or walkaway claiming some moral ground. In any case they got nothing to lose.

But after seeing what CSJ had proposed, I don't think there is any grand strategy/conspiracy on the part of SDP. It just simply for the fact that they feel confident because most residents in PE are young middle class couples who are more receptive to SDP.

 

[kongsimi]

yes. stopping wp is more important than stopping pap.

sdp might as well all join pap.

 

[cunnilaubu]

There is a saying which says that if you look hard enough, you will find it even if it does not exist. Here is one.

Perhaps, those who share the author's sentiment should read this piece from Lucky Tan:

To put it simply, the PAP will win in a 3- or 4- corner fight. The opposition parties joining the contest will walk off as losers - a defeat they inflict on themselves. Unless their goal is to stop the WP which they see as a rival, the decision to contest just makes no sense. If they are there to stop the WP, then these other parties are led by people whose intentions are not very clear. A stronger WP will pave the way for other opposition parties. The better WP performs, the stronger the proof that alternatives to PAP can perform well and that will help people to overcome their reservations about voting for alternatives. Other parties can choose to leverage on the success of WP to advance their own cause or they choose to turn this win-win situation into a lose-lose one. Perhaps, the biggest obstacle to the progress of opposition politics is not the PAP - these days they can't seem to solve any of our problems and reverse the rising discontent- but the inability of personalities in opposition parties to make sensible decisions.

 

[ray_of_hope]

But after seeing what CSJ had proposed, I don't think there is any grand strategy/conspiracy on the part of SDP. It just simply for the fact that they feel confident because most residents in PE are young middle class couples who are more receptive to SDP.

Interesting observation, but I think erroneous.

 

[kukubird58]

hahaha....minimum is 3CF.......probably more.
the common enemy is papee....but within opps, the differences in ideology between each party as as great as anything.
if I must give way to u, I might as well go home and sleep......why waste money and resources to form a party just to give way to another party???
your candidate better than mine meh??? who says so??? is it because the wise pple in sbf said so; etc....etc....?????
don't think everyone is as kuku as kukubird....
they know all these.......the question is still why must I give way to u........this is basic human nature;

hahaha...how about this piece????
those who really think that opps party will put country/voters above party/personal interests are simply delusional....
it is clear that wp will always move according to its own agenda regardless of what the other parties do....
for the other parties, if you always have to defer to wp, u might as well disband and go home and sleep or join wp...
to say that other parties who take part part is saboing wp is really making a joke of democracy where everyone is free to stand for election.
lastly...politics is a dirty buisness and those who think that only papees are scums are living in thier own dreamworld.

 

[watchman8]

This episode truly exposes CSJ as the worst political strategist. He should have returned to academic world where he belong.

In an environment of multi corner fights, the weaker ones will always gang up against the strongest opponent. Otherwise the strongest one will just kill off the weaker opponents one by one. This happens many times during the three kingdom and warring states period of china. It also happen frequently in European history. Any student today who play strategy computer games will also know this concept.

Yet CSJ wants to trip up WP at this stage, when it is fairly clear that in a straight fight between SDP and PAP in this by election, likelihood of SDP winning is definitely lower than that of WP.

 

[Fook Seng]

There are great disadvantages in the MCF strategy other than diluting opposition votes. One is that during campaigning, the opposition parties have to direct their attention and fire power not only at the PAP but also to divide it at the other parties. Accordingly PAP will get an easier time. Another is the cost of campaigning will go up as in order to achieve differentiation, more need to be said about the other candidates and parties, in addition to what you have to say about yourself. Because of so many candidates, your intelligent network need to be more widely spread to capture all things uttered by the other parties. These can affect the quality of your campaign.

 

[metalmickey]

There are great disadvantages in the MCF strategy other than diluting opposition votes. One is that during campaigning, the opposition parties have to direct their attention and fire power not only at the PAP but also to divide it at the other parties.

You know what? if you really want to have opposition unity, you should have three corner fights, and the opposition candidates say not a word about each other, but only whack PAP. That would be a truly impressive show of opposition unity.

 

[6000kmApart]

You know what? if you really want to have opposition unity, you should have three corner fights, and the opposition candidates say not a word about each other, but only whack PAP. That would be a truly impressive show of opposition unity.

i concur. Unity is not just collaboration like what CSJ proposed. Unity is better served by taking out PAP to hang dry. Focus on the real issue - PAP! MCF or not, aim and attack common enemy number one. Becoz simple fact is PAP will pluck out each opposition party (if there are more than one contesting) and kill them off one by one during the rallies.

For the alternatives, it is silly to attack each other. Respect each other, let all enter the fray if think themselves worthy. Work a strategy to bring yourself to the voters, but one thing must be done, a concerted and unified attack on PAP and their policies.

 

[Fook Seng]

You know what? if you really want to have opposition unity, you should have three corner fights, and the opposition candidates say not a word about each other, but only whack PAP. That would be a truly impressive show of opposition unity.

If there is opposition unity, there will not be a 3CF. As there is a MCF (presumably), there is no opposition unity, so you have to whack the rest. Incidentally I don't know whether Dr Chee realises that his two potential candidates are actually more appropriate for GRC then an SMC?