<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=452 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top width=452 colSpan=2>Published August 11, 2008
</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=452 colSpan=2>Euro zone recession fears rise as German export orders fall
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(NEW YORK) A plunge in orders for German exports last week increased fears that Germany, and much of Europe, is slipping into recession. When preliminary figures for second-quarter economic growth were released last Thursday, most economists expect that countries that use the euro would show a decline in economic activity.
With Japan also expected to post a negative figure for second-quarter growth when it reports on Wednesday, and the United States already suffering from a weak economy, the three major world economies are all stumbling, a fact that cannot be good news for the emerging economies such as China and India, where growth remains strong.
'It now looks likely that the euro zone will be the first major economy to fall into recession,' Jonathan Loynes, the chief European economist for Capital Economics, wrote after the report of sagging orders in Germany.
Mr Loynes was relying on a popular definition of recession - two consecutive quarters of declines in gross domestic product, adjusted for inflation. In the US, the official measure is more complicated, relying in part on the judgment of analysts at the National Bureau of Economic Research. Some economists think that the analysts will eventually conclude that a recession has already begun.
Germany has remained the world's largest exporter even with the rise of China, which passed the US in 2007. Germany's reliance on exports makes the data on new orders among the most watched. The figure for June, reported last week, was down 2.9 per cent from May and was 8.4 per cent below the figure from a year ago.
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</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>Order figures can be volatile from month to month. But June was the seventh consecutive monthly decline, and some economists had expected a rebound from a particularly weak May figure.
For Germany, export orders are especially weak now, particularly for shipments to other countries that use the euro, as weakness in those countries spreads to Germany. -- NYT
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</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=452 colSpan=2>Euro zone recession fears rise as German export orders fall
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</TD><TD>Feedback</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>(NEW YORK) A plunge in orders for German exports last week increased fears that Germany, and much of Europe, is slipping into recession. When preliminary figures for second-quarter economic growth were released last Thursday, most economists expect that countries that use the euro would show a decline in economic activity.
With Japan also expected to post a negative figure for second-quarter growth when it reports on Wednesday, and the United States already suffering from a weak economy, the three major world economies are all stumbling, a fact that cannot be good news for the emerging economies such as China and India, where growth remains strong.
'It now looks likely that the euro zone will be the first major economy to fall into recession,' Jonathan Loynes, the chief European economist for Capital Economics, wrote after the report of sagging orders in Germany.
Mr Loynes was relying on a popular definition of recession - two consecutive quarters of declines in gross domestic product, adjusted for inflation. In the US, the official measure is more complicated, relying in part on the judgment of analysts at the National Bureau of Economic Research. Some economists think that the analysts will eventually conclude that a recession has already begun.
Germany has remained the world's largest exporter even with the rise of China, which passed the US in 2007. Germany's reliance on exports makes the data on new orders among the most watched. The figure for June, reported last week, was down 2.9 per cent from May and was 8.4 per cent below the figure from a year ago.
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For Germany, export orders are especially weak now, particularly for shipments to other countries that use the euro, as weakness in those countries spreads to Germany. -- NYT
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