https://tw.news.yahoo.com/貿易衝擊浮現-製造業恐負成長-215009247--finance.html
貿易衝擊浮現 製造業恐負成長
中時電子報
15.7k 人追蹤
王玉樹、洪凱音╱台北報導
2019年5月25日 上午5:50
中國時報【王玉樹、洪凱音╱台北報導】
陸美貿易戰對台衝擊浮現！據財政部統計，不僅對大陸及香港出口連6黑，工研院IEKCQM最新發布台灣製造業景氣展望預測，也大幅下調2019年製造業成長預測至0.02%，較上季下修達1.56個百分點。
華為事件 拉低全球動能
工研院警訊，此次預測只有算美國提高大陸2000億美元關稅部分，如果把貿易戰升級、華為圍堵事件算進去，今年製造業產值恐被打成負成長。
上一次製造業負成長預測，是2016年的負增長1.94%，今年如果成長見黑，會是3年來再次負成長。工研院IEK指出，預測顯示台灣今年製造業產值與銷售明顯受到衝擊，原因是陸美新一輪貿易談判，全球經濟成長動能減弱。
如果美國全面對陸課徵3250億美元產品、華為銷量大跌，工研院表示，全球消費、投資、生產信心更趨保守，台灣整個製造業動能還會被往下拉，今年製造業就可能被打成負成長。
風暴擴大 半導體撐不住
「沒想到半導體這麼慘！」工研院產科國際所副組長陳志強直言，直到去年底，大家都認為半導體今年應該還不錯，沒想到受陸美貿易風暴擴大，才半年就風雲變色。過去預測半導體年成長率都有5%，現在卻是負成長，使得最新資訊電子業產值預測被下修到年減0.6%。
財政部最新發布的4月進出口統計也發現，4月對大陸及香港出口年減8.8%，為連6個月衰退，領先指標的外銷接單，不管對全球或對陸港接單，也全面皆墨，顯示陸美貿易戰對台衝擊已逐月顯現。
對陸港出口 連6月衰退
面對貿易戰風暴，工研院建議政府，對有意回台業者，可考慮策略性地重構高附加價值產業發展聚落，以發揮產業群聚效益；有意赴東南亞設廠投資的廠商，則可結合新南向政策資源，建立統一輔導體系及窗口給予協助。
主計總處昨公布最新經濟預測，下修今年全年經濟成長率至2.19%，與2月預測值相比，下修了0.08個百分點；其中，要特別留意的是，貿易戰導致全球景氣疲弱，影響智慧手機、行動通訊產品銷售，加上半導體庫存調整，主計總預測今年商品出口3320億美元，年減1.17%，是近3年首次轉呈負成長。
中美貿易戰
中國狂播愛國片 美駐中國使館氣氛不尋常
政府祭200億利息補貼 科技大咖爆回流潮
態度軟化？ 川普擬將華為納入貿易協議
中美貿戰擴大 製鞋巨頭喊「災難」降臨
關稅不夠看 川普要拿出口管制當武器
今日推薦影音
Trade shocks emerged
[中时电子报]
Zhongshi News
15.7k person tracking
Wang Yushu, Hong Kaiyin, Taipei Report
May 25, 2019, 5:50 am
China Times [Wang Yushu, Hong Kaiyin, Taipei Report]
The impact of the Lumei trade war on Taiwan has surfaced! According to statistics from the Ministry of Finance, not only exports to the mainland and Hong Kong, but also IEKCQM released the latest forecast for Taiwan's manufacturing boom, and also lowered the manufacturing growth forecast for 2019 to 0.02%, up 1.56 percentage points from the previous quarter. .
Huawei event pulls down global momentum
ITRI’s warning, the forecast only counts the US to increase the mainland’s $200 billion tariff. If the trade war is escalated and the Huawei containment incident is included, the manufacturing output value of this year is likely to be negative.
The last negative growth forecast for manufacturing was a negative growth of 1.94% in 2016. If it grows black this year, it will be negative growth again in three years. ITRI pointed out that the forecast shows that Taiwan’s manufacturing output and sales have been significantly affected this year because of the round of trade negotiations and the weakening of global economic growth.
If the United States comprehensively levies $325 billion in products and Huawei's sales plummeted, ITRI said that global consumer, investment, and production confidence will be more conservative. Taiwan's entire manufacturing momentum will be pulled down. This year, manufacturing may be Make a negative growth.
Storm expansion, semiconductors can't hold
"I didn't expect semiconductors to be so miserable!" Chen Zhiqiang, deputy head of the Institute of Obstetrics International of the Industrial Research Institute, bluntly said that until the end of last year, everyone thought that semiconductors should be good this year. I didn't expect the expansion of the US-US trade storm to change color. In the past, it was predicted that the annual growth rate of semiconductors will be 5%, but now it is negative growth, making the latest information electronics industry output forecast revised down to 0.6%.
The Ministry of Finance’s latest April import and export statistics also found that exports to the mainland and Hong Kong fell 8.8% year-on-year in April, which was a six-month recession, and the export of leading indicators was received, regardless of whether it was received globally or on land. All of them are in the ink, showing that the impact of the Lumei trade war on Taiwan has appeared month by month.
Exports to dry ports, even the June recession
In the face of the trade war, the ITRI recommends that the government, for those interested in returning to Taiwan, may consider strategically rebuilding the development of high value-added industries to bring into play the benefits of industrial clusters; those who intend to invest in Southeast Asia may Combine the new southward policy resources and establish a unified counseling system and window to assist.
The General Accounting Office announced the latest economic forecast yesterday. The economic growth rate for the whole year was revised to 2.19%. Compared with the forecast in February, it was revised down by 0.08 percentage points. Among them, it is important to note that the trade war has caused the global economy to be weak. Affecting the sales of smart phones, mobile communication products, and semiconductor inventory adjustments, the total forecast is expected to be 332 billion US dollars of merchandise exports this year, down 1.17% year-on-year, which is the first time in the past three years to transfer negative growth.
Sino-US trade war
China’s mad patriotic film The atmosphere of the US Embassy in China is unusual
Government sacrifices 20 billion interest subsidies
Softened attitude? Trump intends to include Huawei in the trade agreement
Sino-US trade war expands, shoe giants shout "disaster"
Tariffs are not enough. Trump wants to take export control as a weapon.
Recommended audio and video today
貿易衝擊浮現 製造業恐負成長
中時電子報
15.7k 人追蹤
王玉樹、洪凱音╱台北報導
2019年5月25日 上午5:50
中國時報【王玉樹、洪凱音╱台北報導】
陸美貿易戰對台衝擊浮現！據財政部統計，不僅對大陸及香港出口連6黑，工研院IEKCQM最新發布台灣製造業景氣展望預測，也大幅下調2019年製造業成長預測至0.02%，較上季下修達1.56個百分點。
華為事件 拉低全球動能
工研院警訊，此次預測只有算美國提高大陸2000億美元關稅部分，如果把貿易戰升級、華為圍堵事件算進去，今年製造業產值恐被打成負成長。
上一次製造業負成長預測，是2016年的負增長1.94%，今年如果成長見黑，會是3年來再次負成長。工研院IEK指出，預測顯示台灣今年製造業產值與銷售明顯受到衝擊，原因是陸美新一輪貿易談判，全球經濟成長動能減弱。
如果美國全面對陸課徵3250億美元產品、華為銷量大跌，工研院表示，全球消費、投資、生產信心更趨保守，台灣整個製造業動能還會被往下拉，今年製造業就可能被打成負成長。
風暴擴大 半導體撐不住
「沒想到半導體這麼慘！」工研院產科國際所副組長陳志強直言，直到去年底，大家都認為半導體今年應該還不錯，沒想到受陸美貿易風暴擴大，才半年就風雲變色。過去預測半導體年成長率都有5%，現在卻是負成長，使得最新資訊電子業產值預測被下修到年減0.6%。
財政部最新發布的4月進出口統計也發現，4月對大陸及香港出口年減8.8%，為連6個月衰退，領先指標的外銷接單，不管對全球或對陸港接單，也全面皆墨，顯示陸美貿易戰對台衝擊已逐月顯現。
對陸港出口 連6月衰退
面對貿易戰風暴，工研院建議政府，對有意回台業者，可考慮策略性地重構高附加價值產業發展聚落，以發揮產業群聚效益；有意赴東南亞設廠投資的廠商，則可結合新南向政策資源，建立統一輔導體系及窗口給予協助。
主計總處昨公布最新經濟預測，下修今年全年經濟成長率至2.19%，與2月預測值相比，下修了0.08個百分點；其中，要特別留意的是，貿易戰導致全球景氣疲弱，影響智慧手機、行動通訊產品銷售，加上半導體庫存調整，主計總預測今年商品出口3320億美元，年減1.17%，是近3年首次轉呈負成長。
中美貿易戰
中國狂播愛國片 美駐中國使館氣氛不尋常
政府祭200億利息補貼 科技大咖爆回流潮
態度軟化？ 川普擬將華為納入貿易協議
中美貿戰擴大 製鞋巨頭喊「災難」降臨
關稅不夠看 川普要拿出口管制當武器
今日推薦影音
Trade shocks emerged
[中时电子报]
Zhongshi News
15.7k person tracking
Wang Yushu, Hong Kaiyin, Taipei Report
May 25, 2019, 5:50 am
China Times [Wang Yushu, Hong Kaiyin, Taipei Report]
The impact of the Lumei trade war on Taiwan has surfaced! According to statistics from the Ministry of Finance, not only exports to the mainland and Hong Kong, but also IEKCQM released the latest forecast for Taiwan's manufacturing boom, and also lowered the manufacturing growth forecast for 2019 to 0.02%, up 1.56 percentage points from the previous quarter. .
Huawei event pulls down global momentum
ITRI’s warning, the forecast only counts the US to increase the mainland’s $200 billion tariff. If the trade war is escalated and the Huawei containment incident is included, the manufacturing output value of this year is likely to be negative.
The last negative growth forecast for manufacturing was a negative growth of 1.94% in 2016. If it grows black this year, it will be negative growth again in three years. ITRI pointed out that the forecast shows that Taiwan’s manufacturing output and sales have been significantly affected this year because of the round of trade negotiations and the weakening of global economic growth.
If the United States comprehensively levies $325 billion in products and Huawei's sales plummeted, ITRI said that global consumer, investment, and production confidence will be more conservative. Taiwan's entire manufacturing momentum will be pulled down. This year, manufacturing may be Make a negative growth.
Storm expansion, semiconductors can't hold
"I didn't expect semiconductors to be so miserable!" Chen Zhiqiang, deputy head of the Institute of Obstetrics International of the Industrial Research Institute, bluntly said that until the end of last year, everyone thought that semiconductors should be good this year. I didn't expect the expansion of the US-US trade storm to change color. In the past, it was predicted that the annual growth rate of semiconductors will be 5%, but now it is negative growth, making the latest information electronics industry output forecast revised down to 0.6%.
The Ministry of Finance’s latest April import and export statistics also found that exports to the mainland and Hong Kong fell 8.8% year-on-year in April, which was a six-month recession, and the export of leading indicators was received, regardless of whether it was received globally or on land. All of them are in the ink, showing that the impact of the Lumei trade war on Taiwan has appeared month by month.
Exports to dry ports, even the June recession
In the face of the trade war, the ITRI recommends that the government, for those interested in returning to Taiwan, may consider strategically rebuilding the development of high value-added industries to bring into play the benefits of industrial clusters; those who intend to invest in Southeast Asia may Combine the new southward policy resources and establish a unified counseling system and window to assist.
The General Accounting Office announced the latest economic forecast yesterday. The economic growth rate for the whole year was revised to 2.19%. Compared with the forecast in February, it was revised down by 0.08 percentage points. Among them, it is important to note that the trade war has caused the global economy to be weak. Affecting the sales of smart phones, mobile communication products, and semiconductor inventory adjustments, the total forecast is expected to be 332 billion US dollars of merchandise exports this year, down 1.17% year-on-year, which is the first time in the past three years to transfer negative growth.
Sino-US trade war
China’s mad patriotic film The atmosphere of the US Embassy in China is unusual
Government sacrifices 20 billion interest subsidies
Softened attitude? Trump intends to include Huawei in the trade agreement
Sino-US trade war expands, shoe giants shout "disaster"
Tariffs are not enough. Trump wants to take export control as a weapon.
Recommended audio and video today
