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Chitchat Donald Trump is Winning! America will be great again!

Pinkieslut

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Polls show Trump winning key swing states. That’s partly a failure of the press​

Margaret Sullivan
Margaret Sullivan


Polls can’t predict – but they can warn. And I’m not sure our horserace-obsessed media are heeding the warning
Fri 5 Apr 2024 06.01 EDT
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I learned the hard way to be skeptical about the predictive power of public opinion polls.
I remember election night 2016 all too well, as I hit delete on my partially pre-written Washington Post column and instead tried to look into the future of a Trump presidency. It was a future that wasn’t supposed to happen.

An entire nation of journalists was doing much the same. Not everyone, but a whole lot of us.
Given that searing memory, I reacted to the recent much-trumpeted Wall Street Journal poll about the 2024 presidential race with, well, not exactly a shrug, but not a primal scream either.

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That was the poll that said Donald Trump is leading Joe Biden in six of seven crucial battleground states, the very ones most likely to determine who gets elected in November. The former president is ahead, according to the Journal’s poll, in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Nevada, Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina; the two candidates are tied in Wisconsin.
That doesn’t mean anything definitive seven months away from the election. Yet – as someone who thinks another four years of Trump would be a disaster – I believe there’s something to be learned here.
Rather than dismiss these findings, think about what they tell us, even if they do so imperfectly and even if they lack any real predictive power.
One of the things these numbers suggest is that the journalists are not getting the truth across to citizens on some key points (or if they are, that truth is being ignored).
The poll respondents claim that one of their big concerns is the economy. If that’s the case, they should be happy with Biden. Among the factors: low inflation, significant growth and low unemployment. Paul Krugman, the Nobel laureate economist, wrote recently: “The economic news in 2023 was almost miraculously good.” (Even the cost of a classic Thanksgiving dinner, he notes, was down 4.5% last year.)
If the economy is that strong and that important to voters – and if Biden can take at least some of the credit – why isn’t it coming across? That’s something for the Biden campaign, primarily; but it’s also something for media people since journalists are supposed to be communicating information so that citizens can vote with knowledge. That should be a higher priority than generating profits, ratings and clicks, but one eventually despairs that it ever will be.
Another major voter concern, of course, is Biden’s age. He’s 81; Trump will be 78 in June. They’re both old; both have memory gaps and both exhibit confusion at times.
Only one of them, however, talks about some migrants as “animals” or predicts a “bloodbath” for the country if he loses. Only one is facing dozens of charges related to crimes including trying to overturn a legitimate election. Only one has promised to be a dictator on day one of his presidency and only one has allies that are meticulously plotting a radical revamping of how America works.

A fine Associated Press story carried the headline, “Trump’s plans if he returns to the White House include deportation raids, tariffs and mass firings.” The story notes that the ideas are extreme and the groundwork determined. “Some of his current ideas would probably end up in court or impeded by Congress,” it said. “But Trump’s campaign and allied groups are assembling policy books with detailed plans.”
Poll respondents also claim to be deeply concerned about the state of democracy in America.
They should be, of course, but what they mean by that differs widely. Do they know as much about Trump’s authoritarian blueprints as they do about how Biden walks these days with a stiffer gait?
I’m not quite as dismissive as the media critic Mark Jacob, who scoffed that there’s “only one poll that matters. It’s seven months from now. The rest is just empty calories filling airtime.”
And I do take seriously the analysis by Josh Marshall of Talking Points Memo, who looked at the Journal poll and several others, comparing them with earlier ones, and concluding that Biden is making slow, uneven progress.
That progress, Marshall thinks, may accelerate as more Americans realize that, like it or not, these two candidates are the actual choices. No Nikki Haley or Gretchen Whitmer is waiting in the wings.
Polls can’t predict. But they can warn. And maybe a red-alert warning is what low-information Americans – and our horserace-obsessed media – need most of all.
  • Margaret Sullivan is a Guardian US columnist writing on media, politics and culture
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I hope you appreciated this article. Before you move on, I wanted to ask if you would consider supporting the Guardian’s journalism as we enter one of the most consequential news cycles of our lifetimes in 2024.
With the potential of another Trump presidency looming, there are countless angles to cover around this year’s election – and we'll be there to shed light on each new development, with explainers, key takeaways and analysis of what it means for America, democracy and the world.
From Elon Musk to the Murdochs, a small number of billionaire owners have a powerful hold on so much of the information that reaches the public about what’s happening in the world. The Guardian is different. We have no billionaire owner or shareholders to consider. Our journalism is produced to serve the public interest – not profit motives.
And we avoid the trap that befalls much US media: the tendency, born of a desire to please all sides, to engage in false equivalence in the name of neutrality. We always strive to be fair. But sometimes that means calling out the lies of powerful people and institutions – and making clear how misinformation and demagoguery can damage democracy.
From threats to election integrity, to the spiraling climate crisis, to complex foreign conflicts, our journalists contextualize, investigate and illuminate the critical stories of our time. As a global news organization with a robust US reporting staff, we’re able to provide a fresh, outsider perspective – one so often missing in the American media bubble.
Around the world, readers can access the Guardian’s paywall-free journalism because of our unique reader-supported model. That’s because of people like you. Our readers keep us independent, beholden to no outside influence and accessible to everyone – whether they can afford to pay for news, or not.
 
Your fake news 'press' was a big part of the problem.

Trump still has a score to settle with you fake news merchants, who helped to steal the 2020 election. :cool:

uyWucfXFZtju.jpeg
 

Rattled Trump Rages After Shock Iowa Poll Favors Harris: ‘Trump Hater’​

Lily Mae Lazarus
Mon, 4 November 2024 at 2:09 AM SGT2-min read

Donald Trump

Donald Trump
Last minute polling out of Iowa appears to have rattled Donald Trump, who was initially projected to win the deep-red Hawkeye State.
The GOP presidential nominee slammed unfavorable numbers for his campaign released Saturday and accused the pollster Ann Selzer, who is regarded as being highly accurate with last-minute polling in Iowa, of being a “Trump hater.”
“No President has done more for FARMERS, and the Great State of Iowa, than Donald J. Trump. In fact, it’s not even close! All polls, except for one heavily skewed toward the Democrats by a Trump hater who called it totally wrong the last time, have me up, BY A LOT,” he wrote on his social media platform Truth Social on Sunday. “I LOVE THE FARMERS, AND THEY LOVE ME.”
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Monica Lewinsky reveals who she is voting for in the presidential election​

Michelle Del Rey
Mon, 4 November 2024 at 1:01 PM SGT2-min read

Monica Lewinsky is asking her followers to vote   (AFP via Getty Images)

Monica Lewinsky is asking her followers to vote (AFP via Getty Images)
Monica Lewinsky has revealed who she is endorsing in the US presidential race ahead of election day on Tuesday.
“PLEASE VOTE!” Lewinsky said in a tweet viewed over 10 million times. “(preferably like I did for harris/walz).”
Lewinsky has been vocal about her support for Harris and is just one of numerous celebrities urging their followers to vote for her. In the weeks leading up to the election, Beyoncé, Cardi B and Michael Keaton have pleaded with voters to cast their ballots for Harris.
 

Monica Lewinsky reveals who she is voting for in the presidential election​

Michelle Del Rey
Mon, 4 November 2024 at 1:01 PM SGT2-min read

Monica Lewinsky is asking her followers to vote   (AFP via Getty Images)

Monica Lewinsky is asking her followers to vote (AFP via Getty Images)
Monica Lewinsky has revealed who she is endorsing in the US presidential race ahead of election day on Tuesday.
“PLEASE VOTE!” Lewinsky said in a tweet viewed over 10 million times. “(preferably like I did for harris/walz).”
Lewinsky has been vocal about her support for Harris and is just one of numerous celebrities urging their followers to vote for her. In the weeks leading up to the election, Beyoncé, Cardi B and Michael Keaton have pleaded with voters to cast their ballots for Harris.
Why Monica so K-Poh? Go look after your hotdog stand lah...
 

Monica Lewinsky reveals who she is voting for in the presidential election​

Michelle Del Rey
Mon, 4 November 2024 at 1:01 PM SGT2-min read

Monica Lewinsky is asking her followers to vote   (AFP via Getty Images)

Monica Lewinsky is asking her followers to vote (AFP via Getty Images)
Monica Lewinsky has revealed who she is endorsing in the US presidential race ahead of election day on Tuesday.
“PLEASE VOTE!” Lewinsky said in a tweet viewed over 10 million times. “(preferably like I did for harris/walz).”
Lewinsky has been vocal about her support for Harris and is just one of numerous celebrities urging their followers to vote for her. In the weeks leading up to the election, Beyoncé, Cardi B and Michael Keaton have pleaded with voters to cast their ballots for Harris.
that mouth of hers is a national treasure, because it has pleasured the cock of the most powerful man on earth.
 
If Trump win, no war in Ukraine, Murika will lose a big time

AT A GLANCE
• U.S. crude exports to Europe reached around 2.2 million barrels per day in the 12 months to June 2024, reinforcing the global pricing role for WTI crude oil.
• 35% of the total daily volumes in WTI Crude Oil futures traded outside the U.S. core hours in June 2024, an increase from 25% in January 2023.


The United States has been an exporter to the global oil market since 2016, but in 2023 the U.S. grade called WTI Midland was formally entered into the pricing arena for global crude with its inclusion into the pricing mechanism for Dated Brent. This provided additional supply into Brent but it also significantly elevated the role of WTI benchmark pricing on the global stage.
Prior to its addition, the Brent benchmark had only included production from the North Sea but with output falling month on month, the decision to add WTI Midland was taken.
This change has contributed to a significant adjustment to the global crude flows in the oil markets with refiners outside of the U.S. processing higher volumes of U.S. crude grades, in some cases for the first time. These changes typically expose the international market to U.S. crude pricing which can be beneficial to the trade in the NYMEX WTI benchmark.
 

More U.S. Crude Goes to Europe​

The volume of U.S. oil exports shipped to Europe continues to far exceed the total volume of Brent crude oil produced from the existing crude fields in the North Sea that underpin the Brent futures benchmark. This was one of the major reasons why WTI Midland was included as one of the delivery grades as it bolsters the total volume of crude that could be delivered under the Brent contract.
The latest volume shows that the U.S. exports around 1.8 million barrels per day, while total production for Brent crude oil grades sits at 650,000 barrels per day. This has been an ongoing directional trend since early 2022 and continues to reinforce the pricing role that the U.S. benchmark is playing for European market participants.
graph

The Vortexa data shows that U.S. crude exports to Europe (all) reached around 2.2 million barrels per day in the 12-months to June 2024, this represents an increase of 23% year over year compared to the same period in 2023.

U.S. Crude Oil Trading Volumes Expand in European Hours​

The inclusion of WTI into the Brent benchmark has drawn higher customer interest from outside the U.S. into WTI and this appears to be translating into a greater proportion of WTI futures volumes being traded in European hours.
graph

CME Group data shows that the percentage of total volume in WTI has been rising since the inclusion of WTI Midland into the Dated Brent price. Over 35% of the total daily volumes in WTI crude oil futures traded outside the U.S. core hours in June 2024, an increase from 25% in January 2023. In volume terms, the June 2024 level equates to around 900,000 lots, an increase of 16% from the same period 12 months earlier. This also coincides with the timing of the formal introduction of WTI as a deliverable grade into the Dated Brent basket of crudes.
Risk exposure to U.S. crude prices from regions outside the U.S. is on the rise as grades like WTI Midland continue to play an outsized role on the global stage. As U.S. export cargoes have flowed in higher volumes, non-U.S. refiners and trading firms that may have traditionally relied on Brent to manage risk are much more focused on what is happening in both WTI and along the U.S. Gulf coast. CME Group futures markets for Argus-based WTI Midland and the Argus WTI Houston reflect this change, with open interest — the number of unsettled futures contracts — growing substantially.
 

Monica Lewinsky reveals who she is voting for in the presidential election​

Michelle Del Rey
Mon, 4 November 2024 at 1:01 PM SGT2-min read

Monica Lewinsky is asking her followers to vote   (AFP via Getty Images)

Monica Lewinsky is asking her followers to vote (AFP via Getty Images)
Monica Lewinsky has revealed who she is endorsing in the US presidential race ahead of election day on Tuesday.
“PLEASE VOTE!” Lewinsky said in a tweet viewed over 10 million times. “(preferably like I did for harris/walz).”
Lewinsky has been vocal about her support for Harris and is just one of numerous celebrities urging their followers to vote for her. In the weeks leading up to the election, Beyoncé, Cardi B and Michael Keaton have pleaded with voters to cast their ballots for Harris.
Common Clinton's dick is still wet for you.
 

Monica Lewinsky reveals who she is voting for in the presidential election​

Michelle Del Rey
Mon, 4 November 2024 at 1:01 PM SGT2-min read

Monica Lewinsky is asking her followers to vote   (AFP via Getty Images)

Monica Lewinsky is asking her followers to vote (AFP via Getty Images)
Monica Lewinsky has revealed who she is endorsing in the US presidential race ahead of election day on Tuesday.
“PLEASE VOTE!” Lewinsky said in a tweet viewed over 10 million times. “(preferably like I did for harris/walz).”
Lewinsky has been vocal about her support for Harris and is just one of numerous celebrities urging their followers to vote for her. In the weeks leading up to the election, Beyoncé, Cardi B and Michael Keaton have pleaded with voters to cast their ballots for Harris.
For recollection. https://www.theguardian.com/world/1998/sep/11/clinton.usa3
 
that mouth of hers is a national treasure, because it has pleasured the cock of the most powerful man on earth.
Let pray hard Trump will truly win this election, then our 4G leaders would learn how to lead the country by getting rid of CECA Indian, Kamala.
 

JPMorgan Chase CEO says he and his team are preparing for WWIII — 3 assets to protect yourself in 2025​

JPMorgan Chase CEO says he and his team are preparing for WWIII — 3 assets to protect yourself in 2025

JPMorgan Chase CEO says he and his team are preparing for WWIII — 3 assets to protect yourself in 2025
William Koblensky Varela
Mon, November 4, 2024 at 11:15 PM GMT+8 5 min read


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The head of America’s largest bank told an audience at the Institute of International Finance that his team is running scenarios in preparation for a global conflict involving nuclear powers.
Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, told the crowd that war was imminent and nuclear proliferation was a greater existential threat than climate change.
 

JPMorgan Chase CEO says he and his team are preparing for WWIII — 3 assets to protect yourself in 2025​

JPMorgan Chase CEO says he and his team are preparing for WWIII — 3 assets to protect yourself in 2025

JPMorgan Chase CEO says he and his team are preparing for WWIII — 3 assets to protect yourself in 2025
William Koblensky Varela
Mon, November 4, 2024 at 11:15 PM GMT+8 5 min read


https://www.interactivebrokers.com.sg/mkt/?src=yahoo2024q4tb46&url=/en/trading/globalanalyst.php#/&tblci=GiDezTBU_w6JV-z8Tj7MjhPOVWo4DsUwVGvpp14GlNWZFSCk72Eo8I6PqvSwzoRpMKfbXg#tblciGiDezTBU_w6JV-z8Tj7MjhPOVWo4DsUwVGvpp14GlNWZFSCk72Eo8I6PqvSwzoRpMKfbXg
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The head of America’s largest bank told an audience at the Institute of International Finance that his team is running scenarios in preparation for a global conflict involving nuclear powers.
Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, told the crowd that war was imminent and nuclear proliferation was a greater existential threat than climate change.
真的吗?
 

A tiny village in India where Kamala Harris has ancestral roots is praying for her victory​


Image

Villagers participate in special prayers for the victory of Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris, at Sri Dharmasastha Hindu temple in Thulasendrapuram, the ancestral village of Harris, in Tamil Nadu state, India, Tuesday, Nov. 5, 2024. (AP Photo/Aijaz Rahi)
Image

A villager prays in front of the idols of Hindu goddesses after special prayers for the victory of Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris, at Sri Dharmasastha temple in Thulasendrapuram, the ancestral village of Harris, in Tamil Nadu state, India, Tuesday, Nov. 5, 2024. (AP Photo/Aijaz Rahi)




BY SHEIKH SAALIQ
Updated 4:05 PM SGT, November 6, 2024
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Follow live: Updates from AP’s coverage of the presidential election.
THULASENDRAPURAM, India (AP) — The temple reverberated with rhythmic Sanskrit and Tamil hymns, as a Hindu priest held a flame before the god. As this tiny South Indian village gathered to pray for Kamala Harris, a gaggle of reporters jostled for space and camera angles.
There’s little to distinguish the village of Thulasendrapuram from any other rural community in Tamil Nadu, except its connection to a woman who could become America’s first leader with South Asian roots.
As millions of Americans vote, Harris has people rooting for her from thousands of miles away in a village surrounded by rice paddies and coconut trees, where her mother’s family has ancestral ties. They talk about her at the local tea shop. Banners and billboards bearing her face are seen throughout the community.
“Our deity is a very powerful God. If we pray well to him, he will make her victorious,” said M. Natarajan, the temple priest that led the prayers in front of the image of Hindu deity Ayyanar, a form of Lord Shiva.
 
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