Did China take a back seat by not having its defence minister attend this year’s Shangri-La Dialogue?

[nightsafari]

When ppl no send minster to talk, means buei song and also easier to attack u.

If no attack, they will send minister to talk de.

Same ma...some colleagues or boss no talk to u suddenly, means he/she going to do something bad to u

this is actually the likeliest reason. Everybody from the China delegation this time was uniformed when previously they were all in suits. It's a signal.

 

[zhihau]

this is actually the likeliest reason. Everybody from the China delegation this time was uniformed when previously they were all in suits. It's a signal.

More likely a reaction to how Ng snubbed them previously

 

[nightsafari]

More likely a reaction to how Ng snubbed them previously

did he? I wasn't aware.

But I doubt that they truly care what singapore thinks of them. Even CCS looks so helpless when confronted by the rear admiral?

They probably view us as a convenient tool to advance their agenda. Nothing more. And if my assumption is true, my conjecture is that the tool (aka shangrila) is being used as a threat display. I do worry with all the instability in the world, politicians would happily conjure up a false dilemma to shore up their power. The Watchmen.

I can only hope that your version is closer to the truth than mine.

 

[congo9]

3 reasons why China didn't send its Defence Minister:

1. The Shangri-La Dialogue has morphed into a China-bashing platform for the US and its lackeys, thanks to LHL's pro-US stance. Impossible to have any constructive exchange in the one-sided brouhaha. That said, the CCP has always believed in quiet one-on-one diplomacy, not the kind of public grandstanding that the US leaders like.

2. Note that Xi did not congratulate LW on his appointment as PM. This is another slap in the face for LW, who is expected to continue LHL's policy of currying favor with the US at the expense of China.

3. Internal ongoing purge in the PLA at the highest echelons: Xi has absolutely no interest in what's going at the Dialogue, given the stakes involved

Singapore can send George Yeo as a backup to the defence minister of China. When the defence minister Ang mo is not so great, George Yeo can speak up on behalf of the China's Minister. That's why china won't be bullied.

China don't want war .. but ... Blah blah ..

 

[zhihau]

did he? I wasn't aware.

But I doubt that they truly care what singapore thinks of them. Even CCS looks so helpless when confronted by the rear admiral?

They probably view us as a convenient tool to advance their agenda. Nothing more. And if my assumption is true, my conjecture is that the tool (aka shangrila) is being used as a threat display. I do worry with all the instability in the world, politicians would happily conjure up a false dilemma to shore up their power. The Watchmen.

I can only hope that your version is closer to the truth than mine.

PRC view Taiwan as a third tier province at current stage, akin to a larger HK at best.

Xi dada is more concerned about domestic issues like the housing bubble and how to prevent brain drain. The intelligentsia are held in check whilst the middle/upper class are moving out to Europe and Japan in droves.

Back to the SLD, do you note that the delegates from PRCs are using English with better prose while posting their questions?

 

[nightsafari]

PRC view Taiwan as a third tier province at current stage, akin to a larger HK at best.

yeah

Xi dada is more concerned about domestic issues like the housing bubble and how to prevent brain drain. The intelligentsia are held in check whilst the middle/upper class are moving out to Europe and Japan in droves.

That's my concern. He doesn't have many cards to play. Simply because he's a dolt, but also China is in a bit of corner for blah blah(too long will elaborate if necessary). The easiest card to play and from what I can tell, the one that seems most appealing to his brain, is the false conflict option. I don't think he'll go full force and invade Taiwan. My bet is on Kinmen sometime from now until 2027. While the US is in disarray and Europe is dealing with putin. He'll pick an enemy to dissuade the tiong populace from decamping from China. Let's hope I'm wrong. I'll be happy as fish.

Back to the SLD, do you note that the delegates from PRCs are using English with better prose while posting their questions?

Somewhat. No patience for these kinda things. But they seemed very well-turned out. Almost like a diplomatic recon-in-force. The fact that everyone was uniformed really stood out for me though which got me to start worrying.

 

[zhihau]

My bet is on Kinmen sometime from now until 2027. While the US is in disarray and Europe is dealing with putin. He'll pick an enemy to dissuade the tiong populace from decamping from China.

The decamping is due to the pressure cooker lifestyle in PRC, more pronounced in tier 1 and tier 2 provinces. This makes the grass look greener on the other side; note their 躺平 culture didn’t evolve out of nowhere.

My bet is on a non-invasive approach, Taiwan is an island after all. China now surpasses EU & Americans in terms of their naval output in both tonnage and capabilities. Besides, their outdated J10CEs and PL10s have made their mark in the recent Paki-Indo skirmish

 

[eatshitndie]

one of xi’s top generals, xu qiliang, passed away at 75. he was vice chairman of ccp military commission. cause of death is a mystery.

 

[nightsafari]

The decamping is due to the pressure cooker lifestyle in PRC, more pronounced in tier 1 and tier 2 provinces. This makes the grass look greener on the other side; note their 躺平 culture didn’t evolve out of nowhere.

yes they are decamping. but a lot of them do not necessarily leave PRC to decamp. Just outside the hectic special economic zones and megacities. China is huge. A lot of them balik kampung and just flatten their parents homes. The ones with money left or are leaving. The ones without balik kampung.

My bet is on a non-invasive approach, Taiwan is an island after all. China now surpasses EU & Americans in terms of their naval output in both tonnage and capabilities. Besides, their outdated J10CEs and PL10s have made their mark in the recent Paki-Indo skirmish

We can hope for non-invasive approach!

But I fear that your point about naval output puts the lie into that hope. Naval output? So much for what? All that money for no good use when they need it for other purposes? Such as domestic issues like the property bubble? Not to mention amphibious landing exercises? Also for what?

Dada dude also promised tiongland that he would ensure the reunification one way or another and he's not the type to shy from applying hard pressure.

 

[zhihau]

But I fear that your point about naval output puts the lie into that hope. Naval output? So much for what? All that money for no good use when they need it for other purposes? Such as domestic issues like the property bubble? Not to mention amphibious landing exercises? Also for what?

真真假假，假假真真。
What is good of red herrings if they weren’t meant for throwing?

 

[LordElrond]

Taiwan will implode. China does not need to fire a single shot. Just came back from a China trip. Being Tiong loving, I joined a local tour group for the convenience of visiting a few places. Interacted with the local uncles and aunties and one active CCP member explained to me the issue he sees in China politics is, too much power is vested at the provincial level and it is quite hard to reign in the rotten eggs. Purge is regular and necessary. Shangri-la monologue is a joke, if I run China I would have just sent a recruit as representative. Only bodoh Pappies will suck up to the Americans, a declining power. Even our Indo brother openly said China is not a threat, it is a partner.