Coronavirus concerns way overblown
March 2, 2020
“We have to wash our hands, not our brains.”
– Adoni
________
Coronavirus concerns way overblown
Robert W. Felix
When I first heard about the coronavirus, Covid-19, and learned that Chinese authorities had locked down the entire city of Wuhan, a city of 11 million people, I thought things must be pretty desperate.
However, even though I don’t trust the numbers coming out of the Chinese Communist government, comments from some of my readers have helped put the whole thing in perspective for me.
One of the first such comments came from Northern Ireland:
“Don’t Panic!” advised reader James McC… “I live in a province with a population of 1,880,000. China has a population of 1,440,000,000. So there are about 750 Chinese (in China) for every person in Northern Ireland.”
“There have been 2,800 deaths in China from covid-19; that would correspond to 4 deaths in Northern Ireland. In the ‘flu’ season which is just winding down, we had 10 deaths from ‘flu,’ a bit less than average. The local media did not go ape, or even mention it. After all, there are about 300 deaths from all causes per week in Northern Ireland, par for the course in the western world.”
“It’s worth noting that about 300 people die every week from all causes in N.I. ( this surprises some folk, other than funeral undertakers and doctors) – so since this epidemic has been running for roughly 8 weeks, we would have had about 2,400 dead from all causes in that period, with average of one a fortnight from covid-19. Big deal.”
Looking at the numbers that way cut the problem down to size for me.
Another reader, Ross, wrote: “What a BS. No vaccine has been invented yet, but 45 000 people recovered. Last year about 27,000 people died from flu in the European Union and nobody panicked. Here 3,000 people died worldwide and people are going crazy. Check how many people died just from cancer last year and compare that number with corona BS numbers.”
“I get the feeling that there are three big issues with this virus,” writes Adoni.
“First, most people haven’t developed any immunity to it, so there are lots of human vectors. Second, people are contagious before they are symptomatic. Third, it easily develops into pneumonia in anyone with weakened lungs. The last is why it’s been so devastating in China and now South Korea. The air pollution in those countries has weakened the lungs of many people.”
“If you include every single known or estimated case of flu in the world then sure you can bring the death rate down to 0.1%. But if you more properly compare hospitalised flu cases with the hospitalised COVID-19 cases, the regular flu actually has a much higher mortality rate. 5.6% (in the US) compared with 1-3%.
In total, the CDC estimates that up to 42.9 million people got sick during the 2018-2019 flu season, 647,000 people were hospitalized and 61,200 died. That’s fairly on par with a typical season, and well below the CDC’s 2017-2018 estimates of 48.8 million illnesses, 959,000 hospitalizations and 79,400 deaths.
“Every year in China die of pneumonia over 180 000. Why this panic? To prevent infections we have to wash our hands not our brains.”
Or here’s Gregory F. Fegel’s take on it:
Fegel says, “2,869 deaths and 36, 872 recovered from coronavirus equals 39,741 cases. 39,741 cases divided by 2,869 deaths equals a death rate of 7.2% from coronavirus. The WHO reports that each year influenza causes 3 to 5 million cases of severe illness and about 290,000 to 650,000 deaths. That’s a death rate of between 9.6 and 13% from severe cases of influenza.
The “severe cases” of influenza are probably the people who sought medical treatment, while a larger number of people who had mild cases that went unreported are difficult to estimate. The same could be true of coronavirus — have there been mild cases of coronavirus that people did not report? Some people with mild cases of coronavirus may have chosen to decline treatment and remain silent to avoid being quarantined. We’ll probably never know.
“The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates that so far this season, there have been at least 15 million flu illnesses for the 2019-2020 season, 140,000 hospitalizations and 8,200 deaths in the U.S. … The [coronavirus] seems to have a 3 percent mortality rate. However, this could be an overestimate since there may be a far larger pool of people who have been infected by the virus but who have not suffered severe enough symptoms to attend hospital and so have not been counted in the data.” — Global Research, February 22, 2020.
And here’s from reader John the 1st:
The CDC estimates* that, from October 1, 2019, through February 15, 2020, there have been:
1. 29,000,000 – 41,000,000 flu illnesses
2. 13,000,000 – 19,000,000 flu medical visits
3. 280,000 – 500,000 flu hospitalizations
4. 16,000 – 41,000 flu deaths
…and somehow we manage to go on with our daily lives.
Now, I don’t pretend to be a doctor, but I am convinced that coronavirus concerns are way overblown – medically at least.
As for the economy, well that’s a different story. I see the media whipping people into a frenzy over this, so I am worried about our economy. I’m hoping that cooler heads prevail.
And I am beginning to see evidence of that, because even China, where by far the most covid-19 cases have been reported, appears to be recovering.
According to a reader who goes by the moniker Realist,
“only Wuhan is now isolated, China’s industry is almost 95% back to work, and only schools are still shut.”
I don’t have a link that backs up that 95% number, but given that Starbucks has reopened most of its China stores, I think Realist is correct; I think we’re already looking at early signs of recovery. One piece of evidence for which I can provide a link, is that Starbucks said on Thursday that 85 percent of its China stores are now open.
So there you go. For what it’s worth, that’s my opinion. I think coronavirus concerns are way overblown.
March 2, 2020
“We have to wash our hands, not our brains.”
– Adoni
________
Coronavirus concerns way overblown
Robert W. Felix
When I first heard about the coronavirus, Covid-19, and learned that Chinese authorities had locked down the entire city of Wuhan, a city of 11 million people, I thought things must be pretty desperate.
However, even though I don’t trust the numbers coming out of the Chinese Communist government, comments from some of my readers have helped put the whole thing in perspective for me.
One of the first such comments came from Northern Ireland:
“Don’t Panic!” advised reader James McC… “I live in a province with a population of 1,880,000. China has a population of 1,440,000,000. So there are about 750 Chinese (in China) for every person in Northern Ireland.”
“There have been 2,800 deaths in China from covid-19; that would correspond to 4 deaths in Northern Ireland. In the ‘flu’ season which is just winding down, we had 10 deaths from ‘flu,’ a bit less than average. The local media did not go ape, or even mention it. After all, there are about 300 deaths from all causes per week in Northern Ireland, par for the course in the western world.”
“It’s worth noting that about 300 people die every week from all causes in N.I. ( this surprises some folk, other than funeral undertakers and doctors) – so since this epidemic has been running for roughly 8 weeks, we would have had about 2,400 dead from all causes in that period, with average of one a fortnight from covid-19. Big deal.”
Looking at the numbers that way cut the problem down to size for me.
Another reader, Ross, wrote: “What a BS. No vaccine has been invented yet, but 45 000 people recovered. Last year about 27,000 people died from flu in the European Union and nobody panicked. Here 3,000 people died worldwide and people are going crazy. Check how many people died just from cancer last year and compare that number with corona BS numbers.”
“I get the feeling that there are three big issues with this virus,” writes Adoni.
“First, most people haven’t developed any immunity to it, so there are lots of human vectors. Second, people are contagious before they are symptomatic. Third, it easily develops into pneumonia in anyone with weakened lungs. The last is why it’s been so devastating in China and now South Korea. The air pollution in those countries has weakened the lungs of many people.”
“If you include every single known or estimated case of flu in the world then sure you can bring the death rate down to 0.1%. But if you more properly compare hospitalised flu cases with the hospitalised COVID-19 cases, the regular flu actually has a much higher mortality rate. 5.6% (in the US) compared with 1-3%.
In total, the CDC estimates that up to 42.9 million people got sick during the 2018-2019 flu season, 647,000 people were hospitalized and 61,200 died. That’s fairly on par with a typical season, and well below the CDC’s 2017-2018 estimates of 48.8 million illnesses, 959,000 hospitalizations and 79,400 deaths.
“Every year in China die of pneumonia over 180 000. Why this panic? To prevent infections we have to wash our hands not our brains.”
Or here’s Gregory F. Fegel’s take on it:
Fegel says, “2,869 deaths and 36, 872 recovered from coronavirus equals 39,741 cases. 39,741 cases divided by 2,869 deaths equals a death rate of 7.2% from coronavirus. The WHO reports that each year influenza causes 3 to 5 million cases of severe illness and about 290,000 to 650,000 deaths. That’s a death rate of between 9.6 and 13% from severe cases of influenza.
The “severe cases” of influenza are probably the people who sought medical treatment, while a larger number of people who had mild cases that went unreported are difficult to estimate. The same could be true of coronavirus — have there been mild cases of coronavirus that people did not report? Some people with mild cases of coronavirus may have chosen to decline treatment and remain silent to avoid being quarantined. We’ll probably never know.
“The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates that so far this season, there have been at least 15 million flu illnesses for the 2019-2020 season, 140,000 hospitalizations and 8,200 deaths in the U.S. … The [coronavirus] seems to have a 3 percent mortality rate. However, this could be an overestimate since there may be a far larger pool of people who have been infected by the virus but who have not suffered severe enough symptoms to attend hospital and so have not been counted in the data.” — Global Research, February 22, 2020.
And here’s from reader John the 1st:
The CDC estimates* that, from October 1, 2019, through February 15, 2020, there have been:
1. 29,000,000 – 41,000,000 flu illnesses
2. 13,000,000 – 19,000,000 flu medical visits
3. 280,000 – 500,000 flu hospitalizations
4. 16,000 – 41,000 flu deaths
…and somehow we manage to go on with our daily lives.
Now, I don’t pretend to be a doctor, but I am convinced that coronavirus concerns are way overblown – medically at least.
As for the economy, well that’s a different story. I see the media whipping people into a frenzy over this, so I am worried about our economy. I’m hoping that cooler heads prevail.
And I am beginning to see evidence of that, because even China, where by far the most covid-19 cases have been reported, appears to be recovering.
According to a reader who goes by the moniker Realist,
“only Wuhan is now isolated, China’s industry is almost 95% back to work, and only schools are still shut.”
I don’t have a link that backs up that 95% number, but given that Starbucks has reopened most of its China stores, I think Realist is correct; I think we’re already looking at early signs of recovery. One piece of evidence for which I can provide a link, is that Starbucks said on Thursday that 85 percent of its China stores are now open.
So there you go. For what it’s worth, that’s my opinion. I think coronavirus concerns are way overblown.
